OldTimer1960

I’m not saying that Gibson might not be that rare guy where his college coach didn’t use him much, but he explodes in the pros. I just think that with so few picks in the top 4 rounds that the Bills would be better served in the 2nd and 3rd picking guys who have a much more significant body of work. if the Bills whiff in round 2 on a high upside low floor guy like Gibson, they may get no eventual starters out of this draft.

Realistically given where their picks are, if they can find one eventual starter and two more that stick around for their rookie contract as contributors as backups and/or important special team players, then I think that would be pretty good. Anything more would be a bonus, in my opinion.

If that happens, revoke Beane’s GM title. He is for sure an athlete, but 77 touches in 2 SEASONS? Why? 2nd is way too rich for my blood on him.

I prefer Akers over Moss, but think either in 3rd could be enticing. Less excited by Dillon - power won’t be so advantageous vs NFL defenses and his elusiveness is not a strength (imho)

I’m in agreement on your analysis of needs, but without consideration for the players likely available at the Bills’ picks, to just say “pick these positions “ either is assuming that there will be equivalent prospects available at a multitude of positions at each pick or is a draft for need vs value approach. i understand that we won’t know who is available until the draft unfolds and that we don’t know how the Bills’ board is stacked, but I hope that they stay true to what they say and pick BPA at least rounds 2-4. If that coincides with their needs, great, but if not I’d rather have good players than lesser players because they play a position that they lack depth at. i do think that CB and RB will be among BPAs at their 2nd and 3rd picks - as well as WR. I would love for a good DE or RT to be available, but I don’t expect that.

I remember thinking that Soloman Thomas was going to be great. I also didn’t like Mahomes or Watson - I thought that Watson’s receivers in college made him look better than he was and I didn’t thought that Mahomes college offense and his school yard plays wouldn’t translate to the NFL. Hmm, not so good on those counts...

I think with Rosen the problem seems to be with his work ethic and attitude rather than his physical talent. While there were suggestions in media that maybe football wasn’t important enough to him, that stuff is really hard for anyone to have insight into unless you can interview him, his coaches and others around him - stuff that nobody here has access to.

This would have to be a ton of picks including one next year, I would think. Pat’s 1st and all three of their 3rds doesn’t get it done and Pats don’t have a 2nd this year. Does NE have a player that is young enough and good enough to include in a package that would interest Detroit?

I think that they will try to move up, but in my opinion they will sit tight in rounds 2 and 3 and then try to move up in round 4. I don’t think that they will be willing to give up their 3rd or 4th to move up earlier. 3 of those 7 picks are in rounds 6 & 7 and they have little trade value.

Jackson was able to pick and slide through small holes and had some big strength and balance. He never looked to be in a hurry, but he churned out yards when there didn’t appear to be many to get. Freddy was a great Bill, but I would not have described him as a speed back and Evans certainly verified fast. On the other hand, I don’t think you’ll see Evans show the inside running ability at the NFL level that Jackson had.

I think Evans is a possibility. 3rd at the earliest, preferably 4th. I like Cam Akers and if it was between he and Evans, I prefer Akers. However, if you can get Evans a round later than Akers the decision gets harder. Would be difficult choice to take Evans over Zach Moss, too. it is entirely possible though that the Bills’ scouts like Evans better than a lot of guys touted higher by many.

I don’t think that conclusion can be drawn after 2 drafts (3 if you count the one before Beane arrived). I think they made a conscious decision to rebuild the defense first because that could make them at least competitive in most games. I think the lesser emphasis on drafting offense was due to that plan rather than them not feeling confident that they can evaluate talent there. I agree on the combination of CB/RB/WR - it seems likely that those positions will present the best value at their picks. I think OT and DE will be picked over before 54.

There are a lot of posts in several threads arguing that the Bills must draft draft a specific position because there is no opportunity for a rookie to make an impact this year at other positions. Particularly this year lacking a first round pick and sitting in the bottom 1/3 of each round, I think it is more important to focus on drafting the best player available (mostly) regardless of position whether there appears to be good starters at that position or not. I think focusing on the idea that the rookies must have an impact this year could lead to reaching for a lesser player. That being said, this draft does seem to be setting up such that there could very well be a situation where BPA at 54 and 86 could be a choice between WR and RB ("play makers"). I'm not opposed to the Bills drafting OL, DL, LB,, CB ar S, but I think pickings are going to be slimmer at those positions than at WR or RB. For example, it is clear to me that the Bills could certainly use a young DE and long-term DEs are probably more of a premium position than RB or WR, but at least to my untrained scouting eye, I think taking a DE in round 2 likely means you are passing on a better prospect (maybe several) at other positions.

I like Josh Allen's total game and he has shown improvement as a passer, but I'm not sure that you would be playing to his or the team's strengths if you ask him to carry the offense every week on his arm alone. I think putting a balanced offense with the ability to run and pass effectively makes it much harder for defenses to defend and gives you the flexibility to emphasIze either run or pass depending on opponent and game situation.

I don't think that McDermott wants to move too far into a predominantly passing offense. I think he will want to continue with a higher than average run pass balance. I think they will throw a little more often this year, but I don't think he will tip the balance too far in that direction.

Nice analysis!

I’m looking for another good RB to basically split touches evenly with Singletary. Not because I feel a need for an upgrade over Devin, but because I think the Bills still want to run the ball more than most teams and because optimally I would not want Singletary to log 20+ touches per game for a full season as he is likely to wear down as the season goes on. Ideally, the new RB would be proficient as a receiver out of the backfield, but I haven’t given up thinking that Singletary couldn’t be more involved there and I actually think that Yeldon is a good receiver and can be of value there. I am not married to a “type” (big bruiser, speedy, elusive) - I just want someone to gain yards when Singletary is resting. i will say that I really like any of the top guys that might be available when the Bills pick - Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Edwards-Helaire and Akers. I think any of them would be a great compliment. After them, I kind of like Evans later or Moss maybe in 3rd. I’m not a huge fan of AJ Dillon in spite of his combine results and his production, but wouldn’t hate him in the 4th.

Of course, it depends on who is available and if you can find a willing partner. I question the assertion that there will be someone available in that range whom Bills have a 1st round grade on. Most things I’ve read suggest that in most years there are really only give or take 20 true first round graded prospects. That doesn’t negate your idea if you substitute “someone who the Bills have graded much higher than other remaining prospects” into the sentence. Still, I don’t think Beane is going to be keen on going without a 3rd round pick. I think the trade concepts will involve trading 4th or later picks and I think it would have to be someone pretty special for them to even want to trade their 4th. Of course, that is just my view... What am I missing when I watch Lewis? I didn’t see a lot to get excited about beyond his build and athleticism.

Grades are all over the map on the DEs this year. There are very few really explosive guys in the draft beyond Young and those that are pretty athletic have other questions. There are guys with good college production, but lacking top notch athletic attributes like Epenesa, Weaver, Anae, and some guys with other questions, but some explosiveness like Okwara and Lewis. i don’t see any big trade up in round 2 because I don’t think they will want to part with their 3rd to do so.

I agree - he seems a very good fit.

But in Gibson’s case his touches were GLARINGLY limited. Why was that? I presume that Memphis’ coach likes being employed, so if Gibson is really that good, you would think they would find a way to get him the ball. Last season, he got the ball an average of 5 times per game (excluding special teams). Why that was is the riddle to solve. I am not saying that he might not be good, but I don’t see how a team could look at that utilization and justify even a 3rd round pick on him. I think 4th round might still be rich for him, but I could see someone being enticed by his athleticism.

I think the Dolphins would disagree, especially with what they paid him. I liked Lawson - I think he is a decent to good starting DE in the league. The idea that every starting DE is expected to get 10 sacks per year is unrealistic in my opinion.

Bills are picking in the bottom 1/3 of each round - first pick 54th. In that spot, Bills should be happy to get a decent starter. Yes, sometimes a star is found there or later even, but by round 2 good starter is totally fine.

Before a team spends even a late 3rd or even 4th round pick on him, they need to figure out why his college coaches only game him 77 total touches from the LOS in 2 full seasons. If he is truly the dynamic play maker that his athletic ability suggests, wouldn't his coaches found ways to get the ball into his hands far more often? For contrast, Wisconsin gave Jonathan Taylor 346 combined rushes and catches just this past season. Maybe there is a very good reason that Gibson's coaches didn't use him much more often, but I think a team has to understand the answer before investing in him.

Really great analysis and many thanks for all the time and effort that you obviously put into scouting. I would be pretty lukewarm if the Bills take Greenard in the 2nd. I know that they need youth at DE, but it seems they will have to talk themselves into liking any of the ends that are likely to be left there. My preference would be for a prospect at another position even if it leaves them somewhat desperate for young edge help. For sure, Greenard looks like an athlete and has super long arms which can be very helpful as a pass rusher so he has some tools. I know you are much higher on him. What do you see that makes you feel he is a good 2nd round selection?