BADOLBILZ

I am sure there would be a nice list of players that could have been franchise QB's today.............but the pool of available talent has been opened up by the opening up of the passing game. A guy like Kyler Murray.....a legit high first round pick in MLB.......he takes that multi-million $ baseball contract 12 years ago. Patrick Mahomes is probably steered into MLB as well. There was no way a guy like Charlie Ward was turning down easy back-of-round-1 NBA money back in the mid-90's to earn his stripes at QB in that NFL.......in today's dollars he made the equivalent of $50M in his 11 year NBA career............but nowadays with all the advantages that athletic QB's have it would have been a no brainer to go NFL and be great and potentially earn 5-10 times that instead of just a be decent NBA player. The passer freedom and earnings potential has just opened up the game to a much broader group of players so the pool of talent isn't as limited as it was 15 years ago.

I would have to think on the more recent guys but the 3 Chris's from the late 80's and 90's are the one's that come most quickly to mind. Chris Chandler.......aka "Chris-tal Chandelier" Chris Miller Jim "Chrissy" Everett They would have absolutely feasted in this NFL..........I mean those guys could deal the ball...........they just couldn't deal with getting more violent hits in a rough start than good QB's get in an entire season now. All three of them might have played into the 2000's with todays protections as well.

That guy appropriately coined the term "the NFL stands for Not For Long".

Maybe the smartest thing that McBeane did wrt their QB choice was to select the guy with the highest ceiling. The days when just having a competent QB made you a threat are kinda' gone..............the studs are inheriting the new NFL. They should have taken that approach with the WR position and drafted Metcalf to pair with Allen.........but I digress.......

The difference was that defenses could always adapt to previous rules changes. Defense's came up with schemes to combat a greater emphasis on passing........like the zone-blitz in the mid 90's........that was designed to address the west coast offense but it was even more of a killer blow to the big meathead down-field passer prototype. And then teams started throwing huge dollars into their pass defenses in the 2000's................CB and pass rusher started collecting the kind of athletic talent that used to gravitate to the RB position. The real savvy vets like Brady and Brees and Manning who could get the ball out quick could adapt to the faster athletes and complex defense's. But the young studs, specifically Rodgers and Roethlisberger, who played a more exciting downfield passing style of game? They were taking a beating and having to play thru a lot of concussions. It was bad optics and just plain bad for business and the future of the sport. So the decision was made to take away the defense's right to be violent. And taking that degree of violence out of the pocket and middle of the field for receivers...........that just took the lid off of the passing game. The next season 7 QB's had top 25 all time passing yardage seasons.........now it's pretty common to have a 5,000 yard passer lead the league and to have young QB's playing well right away. As the passing game has grown and young athletes see these positions can be played relatively safely and great contracts are doled out.........more talent is coming into the league at QB.........which is increasing the odds of hitting on these selections, IMO.

There was a point in Miami when Tannehill was the league's worst deep ball thrower. It was comical. Every team was just daring him to push the ball downfield. Now he is among the best...........he can really drop a deep ball in a bucket to get over an opposing defense. Allen's improvement has been pretty systematic and probably as linear as one could have hoped for a 3 year process.............last year he really advanced his short to intermediate accuracy..........this year his big improvement is basically all the things that are associated with the game "slowing down" for him.........awareness, pocket presence, decision making. So far, his work on improving his deep ball throwing hasn't yielded the desired results though. They are at the point where they might just want to run 40 yard out passes and let him pipe it in on a line(like only he and a select few could) rather than try to get over the top of a defense............case in point the TD throw to Diggs last week.

That pic is with pads. I saw him at minicamp without pads a couple years ago and was taken aback......... he literally looked like his neck and head were 1/3 of his height. Like 4' tall + 2' of headneck.

Gary Anderson..........by far the most successful career of a 7th round pick by the Buffalo Bills.

I am a little more to this side than where @GunnerBill is. Yeah you gotta' be a good teammate and play your role in the Bills defense and he's been a really good story of perseverance. But this defense really props up it's CB's........on MOST teams Levi would be a 5 alarm fire as CB2, IMO. Given the rich history of UFA CB's plucked from McDermott defense's it will be interesting to see if Wallace attracts much attention this winter.

Yeah I think they have to be concerned with the hits he was taking. Earlier in the week Tua basically said he didn't know if he would ever be the same player he used to be physically. And today we saw that. He doesn't move well.........there were plays where MOST young QB's can get away from the rush or get to the edge running the ball.......but Tua........who used to be quick and fast.......couldn't. The biggest concern with him was obviously that he has had a myriad of ankle/knee/hip issues...........I mean it was thought by many that they would basically redshirt him this year to get his hip as healthy as possible..........so I wouldn't be very surprised to see them go back to that plan.

Yes, it's quite obvious that they were. It became A LOT easier to be a successful QB than it was prior to those rule enforcement changes. It's not a real blurry line when things changed either.........Cam Newton threw for a rookie record 422 yards in his first NFL game in 2011.

I can accept those odds because 1 in 7 ain't bad at all.........it certainly makes no sense to wait 60 years to pick one with your originally slotted first pick(or trade up from it) in round 1 with those odds(but of course, the Bills did). A 1 in 7 chance would be top-4 Vegas odds to win the SB this year. 1 in 5.......hell that would trail only the Chiefs who are at 7/2. But in reality the odds are probably higher. From 2011-2019......beginning when the new level of passer freedom kicked in: 28 QB's drafted in round 1 8 franchise QB's.....Newton, Luck, Goff, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson, Murray......including 3 MVP winners. 29% franchise QB hits over that span. And that's fairly conservative......it doesn't count Tannehill or Wentz who have had season long stretches where they have looked like top 5 QB's. And the jury is still out on a bunch of others. So really we are probably looking at more like a 1 in 3 "expected" hit rate at this point. Those are GREAT odds. And the 2020 class has Burrow, Tua and Herbert in it's class of 4.......who all could be on that "likely franchise QB" list by this time next year.........which would put the 5 year hit rate around 50%. I understand why people want to feel amazed.........but we aren't talking about the odds of a Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson hookup here.

There was also some crazy stat about Singletary running against a ton of 6 man boxes while Gore saw almost exclusively stacked ones.

Right now.......NFL players in order of desirability in trade IMO: 1.Mahomes 2.Russ 3.Watson 4.Allen 5.Murray 6.Herbert Watson thru Allen different teams might move them around but Mahomes and Russ are the top 2. Even at Russ' age.......he looks like a guy who has 7-8 years of this left in him which is worth the potential of the next 4 guys on the list rising to his level and playing 10-15 more years. The big faller is Lamar Jackson........he would have been top 4 before the season.......and I don't think he's out of the top 10 yet.........he hasn't passed as well as hoped but his potential as a passer is still very high.

@Doc came to the exact same 15% number independently. I remember agreeing with @Kirby Jackson about the players he determined to be franchise QB level.........perhaps Doc can show his work. In any event I do think that number is too low nowadays. It included a lot of guys from pre-2010 NFL. So far the 2017 and 2018 drafts have produced QB league MVP's in 2018 and 2019...........and Allen looks like the real deal as well. I also suspect Darnold will go to Indy or San Fran next season and within two years emerge as a franchise QB. So 3 of 8 now........but I suspect 4 of 8 will end up being franchise QB's from those two classes. 2019 class may prove a total dud but the 2020 class looks like it will produce a couple more. Lawrence is darn near a sure thing in 2020. Unless there are like 15 QB's taken in round one of 2020 and all but Lawrence flames out I suspect that 5 year sample is going to be a lot higher than 15%. It's never been easier to play QB in the NFL.........I don't think anyone disputes that.........so I don't think it's a surprise that the hit rate on QB's in round one is trending upward.

It's important to remember that this system is VERY cornerback friendly. It's easy to forget NOW that there was also this sentiment for Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson in their rookie years..........like good starters had been found on the cheap........particularly Johnson who had developed a Kiko-esque reputation as an excellent slot corner. We can always hope that Jackson sustains what he's shown but given the easy success so many find at CB in McDermott's system we are going to have to see a lot more before we can call him a really good NFL corner.

Approximately 15% of 1st round QB's become franchise QB's........and only about 25% of first rounders at all positions play up to the expectation when drafted...........better than half fail to even get their 5th year options picked up. If the difference between a 15% chance and 25% chance is where they draw the line between expectation and astonishment then I'd suggest that person is easily amazed. Fans like to create narratives that include things like destiny and a singular stroke of good fortune etc.............like Josh Allen becoming good means something magical has happened............there isn't anything mystical going on they just finally addressed their basic math problems.........the most likely place to find a franchise QB is round 1.......and you miss 100% of the chances you don't take. And their timing was right because the 2017 and 2018 classes are going to produce double or triple the average amount of franchise QB's.

Last season, New Orleans now-third-string QB Jameis Winston also surpassed Dan Marino's then-and-long-time record 1984 season passing yardage total of 5,084. The passing yardage numbers of today are great for creating faux awe and "shattering" the seemingly modest records of QB's past.............but obviously totally out of perspective relative to those before the 2010 rule enforcement changes. It's a disservice to Jim Kelly and even Drew Bledsoe to act like passing their yardage totals TODAY means much.

Yep. The last truly great NFL game of the "violent era" might have been the 2013 NFC Championship game between the Niners and Seahawks in January 2014. It was a crossover.......a lot of the new protections were in place.......but the styles those two teams played allowed for a throwback. It was an extremely violent clash between two Super Bowl championship worthy division rivals that absolutely hated each other. You can't beat the perspective and drama that the old ultra-violent game created on it's own...........and it felt like a privilege to watch NFL players beat the living hell out of each other. Today it's not just the lack of violence itself..........the significance of each season has changed now that QB's don't get hit and can get 20+ chances at a Super Bowl ring. I'm glad enough that the NFL is adapting to a more sustainable style of play...........it wasn't very nice of us to celebrate the truly gratuitous violence and the impact it had on players.......so I choose not to actively compare the styles of play when I watch games today. I still love it........still a great game......but obviously no.......it's not as compelling of a product.

I don't think you recall the period after the Denver game.......a year ago this week........when Von Miller blew some smoke up Ford's azz after the game there were a lot of people who thought he was ascending rapidly to stud status. For the rest of the season that game was cited over and over by those who loved the Ford pick.

If "wait's" and "but, but..'s" were candies and nuts oh what a Merry Christmas for TSW!

FWIW.......we already crossed that "15%" bridge before you jumped in to argue. Here is an excerpt from the 6th post in this thread: "QB's are a bit more of a risk.........I think @Kirby Jackson had a data set once that said you could expect about 15% of first round QB's to become franchise QB's........but the reward is so much higher than that of drafting any other position so what was amazing was how few shots the Bills had taken at QB's in round 1 in the prior 58 drafts." As for those odds........a general 15% chance of getting an actual stud franchise QB? Those odds ain't that bad when the chance of getting just a star player at any position is only like 1 in 4. So yes.........based on statistical probability.......fans should anticipate most of their first round picks to be a disappointment on some level.

Among the actual draft picks there hasn't been anyone who has stood out as a likely star...........so early returns aren't exceptional. We have seen flashes of excellent play from some of them........but it's not uncommon for rookies to get lot's of opportunity and playing time out of necessity or just because of the teams draft investment in them. But then when they don't show a lot of improvement their playing time gets cut the next year. Think Brandon Spoon.......starts 14 games for the Bills as a rookie at MLB.........never plays another down in the NFL. For further perspective remember that last year at this time a lot of people felt Cody Ford, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox looked like studs in the making and they'd fight you if you suggested otherwise. They've all had lousy second seasons and many of the same fans want to fight THEM now. Probably the Bills best looking draft class at midseason in the 2000's was the 2007 class: 1. Marshawn Lynch 2. Paul Posluszny 3. Trent Edwards Fans were thinking we probably had 3 perennial Pro Bowl players.................but none of them even made it to contract #2 with Buffalo. The upside is that in a couple years the players could be a lot better. Fred Jackson was a rookie UDFA on that 2007 team.

This game was maybe McD's best in terms of handling timeouts. It's been said before.......but maybe the most impressive thing about McBeane so far has been their willingness to change/fix things that aren't producing the desired results.

Yeah I tell employees or contractors/accountants/attorneys etc. that I am impressed by their work all of the time..........I can't think of one such instance where either party would find "astonished" as an appropriate synonym. "Your work on that safety audit was astonishing." "Your opening statement was very astonishing." I think it would be simultaneously less appreciated and more expensive to go the "astonished" route.