BADOLBILZ

It's a quote from the book, Don. Adapted to screen. Justin Herberts gramps I think.

When you wish upon (a 31-32 year old) Star................🤩

Yes they are excellent at the draft. Helps so much to have an ownership group that has been made up of football people for most of the past 50 years..........a lot less trial and error in their management/coaching decisions. That stability in ownership has helped the Steelers maintain their identities on both sides of the ball for a very long time........which makes drafting so much easier.

Well yep.......tell it to those dudes. The point of my post was to point out that modest success in a rookie season........which is often graded on a curve anyway.........does not consistently translate into better or even similar results in year 2 or thereafter. I'm not saying Gabe Davis or Zach Moss or Devin Singletary Dawson Knox will become complete busts........... but if they do you will get over it quick just like you no doubt did when Robert Foster blew out like a dud bottle rocket. The draft will keep importing hope and coaches will keep giving rookies too many snaps because they fell in love with their tape and they are cheap.........and as @NoSaint pointed out........fans will read too much into those rookies getting PT and expect they will all only improve.

I don't believe they can win it without him this season.....but with him they at least have a punchers chance. They won't score enough without what he brings to their offense. I know people think 27 is a lot of points but 26.5 is 14th in the league and 27.5 is 9th...........it's only "good". How important is being a top 6 scoring team in the NFL? This year the top 3 seeds in both conferences are in the top 6 in scoring. But I do think John Brown is a near lock to be on the roster next season. I am not exactly sure why you disagreed with my original post........you are telling me things I already know..........they need to act like he WON'T be back because he is going to be 31 and will be coming off an injury RIDDLED season and is in the last year of his deal anyway. They have a number of areas to improve on.........as do most teams, that's parity..........but the position where one good player would make the most difference is there........we've seen what his presence does for the offense as a whole.

That would be a record short time for one of Urbs scandals to come to light. But I am predicting fibromyalgia..........gotta be some kind of silent killer where the doctor looks into your eyes like Larry David to see if you're just tryna get disability pay. Urb and his illnesses are definitely Curb material.

At this point last year Oliver, Ford, Singletary, Knox, Bam Johnson and Tommy Sweeney were getting the same level of hype or more than this class. There have been moments this season.........and they still could pan out later........ but that is a startling amount of "meh" or outright regression from a draft class in year 2 right there. And that happens more than you'd think..........rookies are like new toys.........teams often can't wait to march them out there but if they disappoint at all they can depreciate quickly in the eyes of management.

They need a game breaking RB but spending more early picks on them is shortsighted. Early picks are for foundation pieces...........that's where you take risks on long term difference makers you wouldn't have many chances at in UFA. You can still find RB's that can offer playmaking ability all over the draft or in UDFA.........and of course in UFA because nobody wants to pay them.............you just have to choose well. Drafting a RB early after taking two in the third round the prior two drafts is throwing good money after bad.

They are the second most penalized team in the NFL for the most yardage. They are allowing to 4.7 ypc this season versus 4.3 ypc last year and the chief reason is players being undisciplined in the front 7. Yes, there are worse teams........that "well the Lions are worse" bit is the old Promo argument during the drought............but they are not a disciplined team and when you are not a top 5 scoring team or create a lot of turnovers you really gotta' play a cleaner game to expect to get to a SB.

They are the second most penalized team in the NFL for the most yardage. Not sure about just the halves........a lot of the memorable stuff is second half though like the Ed Oliver double yesterday or the second half nonsense against the Chiefs. Blowing a 16 point lead in the second half of the playoff game in Houston is going to loom over the discussion leading up to the first playoff game and it will be in the back of the minds of the players. McD needs to get off that schneid. A better performance and another win over New England would be very helpful going forward as well...........don't want to split and have only won the first one on a last second reprieve going into next season when Belichick has a re-tooled roster.

I think we've seen some blatantly disconnected situations under McD where a lot of players on the defense have just gotten frustrated with some game plans and gone off script........often leading to horrendous results. The worst 3 game defensive stretch in team history in 2017. Plenty of quit in the first half of 2018. Lot's of free lancing in the struggles early this year(specifically Jerry Hughes). It seems like every season they go thru periods where McD struggles to rein them in at times. They are not a particularly mentally disciplined team on either side of the ball..........which has to be a source of frustration for someone like McD who works so hard to tie up every loose end. And yes winning some playoff games this season would be absolutely huge for McD going forward. A bunch of educated 35-75 year old white males on a message board can poo-poo the idea but the reality is that a 25 year old football player doesn't have as much life experience and they fill in the blanks of what they don't understand with mythology like "Shula can take his and beat yours and yours and beat his".

They were effective enough yesterday against a Chargers team that is just unreal at making mistakes late in games...........but turnover stats are as reliable of a predictor as any.........you lose MOST games where you are -2. And the Bills are also the most scored on second half team in the entire NFL this year and the second most penalized. Those let downs and mistakes are not reflective of the meticulous McDermott. Remember.........the context of this branch of the discussion is why Vrabel had stood out in big games..........and why McD struggles in them. McD is 1-6 vs Belichick and 0-2 in playoffs. He's a last second Cam Newton fumble from 0-9 in what I would argue are his 9 highest leverage games as a Bill. I don't think he and his players are on the same page the way Belichick and Vrabel(and increasingly Flores) are...........the Bills players don't entirely trust the process and it hurts them even more in emotionally charged matchups...........which is probably NATURAL when you as a HC haven't proven somehow or somewhere that you help tilt the scale for your team in big games.

I don't think Vrabel is a great coach..........but he does an extraordinary job of getting his players to assume his personality/mindset. So in big games they are galvanized and a united front. It's something Belichick is GREAT at. There can't be many better coaches in the NFL from Monday thru Saturday than McD............but try as he might the team is always pulling against his leash. I mean..........in that Chargers game in the 4th quarter it felt like they were the anti-McD's.........and McD was watching from afar without much he could do to stop it. I think the only way to correct that is for him to win some playoff games and garner that last level of trust from the players.

For the people who wonder why the Bills can't finish off teams.........that is why. They are short a couple players...........an elite pass rusher on defense and a game breaker on offense. When the other team is in desperation mode the Bills can't turn up the heat.........their pass rush is steady but can't really cash in when QB's hold onto the ball a bit longer..........and they don't have a player on offense who can take advantage of an over pursuing defense. So the opponent is able to take more chances on both sides of the ball when they are down on the scoreboard.

To all those who openly worried for his health when he was on his "farewell you ingrates, you'll miss me when I'm gone, smell ya' later" tour..........welcome to the Urban Liar experience.

After AJ Klein the next highest paid LB that is NOT still on their rookie contract is Kyler Fackrell at $4.6M. That is a HUGE drop. $6M is literally the point of demarcation for excellent starting LB pay. You can throw in all the "rookie" starters.......he's still not being paid commensurate to a reserve using any curve or not. Same goes for Josh Norman the NFL's 33rd highest paid CB. These guys were NOT paid that kind of money to be reserves. They have signed a lot of players with expectation of excellent starting performance and though we like the very recent play of Klein.........of all of those they have invested millions in only Daryl Williams has consistently met expectations. It hasn't been a productive avenue for them.

What those other coaches have in common is they've done something of note in the playoffs...........4 of them have won SB's..........Shanahan advanced to one last season and Vrabel won playoff games against the defending champ and #1 seed in last year's playoffs. Until McD actually does these things his legitimacy as one of the best will be suspect............people can be mad about it but that's how it goes............if you don't make a bunch of noise when it matters the league and it's observers don't hear you.

They are well positioned..........their style of defense should benefit from the time together and the late bye was great...........if they can stay healthy and mostly covid-free and keep winning until Brown and Milano can come back to full strength they will have a punchers chance against the field. And in a year where anyone could find themselves off-balance in the playoffs........that punchers chance is greater than normal.

Yeah I was going to say I didn't think PFF had love for Beane's draft work. And honestly, other than White and Allen..........what exactly have they hit out of the park? The Bills sorta epitomize Belichick's "you gotta' be making bad decisions all the time to be bad in the NFL". Get a QB and don't sh*t yourself wrt personnel and coaching and you should be in contention for the playoffs more often than not. They got that talented QB.........otherwise they are a thoroughly mixed bag of modest successes and modest failures in terms of personnel. The schedule was very kind in 2017 and 2019 to allow them to fake it til they made it........and now they are legitimately competitive with all but maybe KC. But in a matchup league....where playmakers are so important........the Bills personnel department has really not stood out. I wouldn't be too excited about a Schoen/Daboll team if I were a fan of one of those full turnover situations.

PLEASE take whoever it was that gave Beane a visible hard-on for Cody Ford in the Bills embedded feature. If a smart owner is hiring a GM.......it is a guy who isn't going to drop his guard after round 1 and starting looking to patch holes. But the teams that will be looking for new personnel department include some real doozy owners.

Klein is the 32nd highest paid off-ball LB in the NFL.........for perspective, every team employs AT LEAST 2 starting off-ball LB's. If you include all the 3-4 teams with big money edge rushing LB's........Von Miller, Khalil Mack etc............Klein is STILL the 45th highest paid LB in football. So by any definition he is receiving excellent starting pay for his position.

Look........I never mentioned "the 22 number" and I never said only 5 of the signings were significant. Star Lotulelei was signed for 5 years and $50M also..........and Kelvin Benjamin cost the Bills $8.5M in 2018 and he was utterly useless and dumped after 12 games. Part of the context is that McBeane couldn't just pick any Carolina player off the Panthers roster or the rosters of Washington(Norman), New Orleans(Klein) or Dallas(Worley)..........the reason why the amount of ex McB Panthers has increased is because they had to wait for them to become expendable..........they have been on that Carolina waste product like white on rice.........it's only now that they can access a lot of them. And it HASN'T been cheap. That said............my point isn't to trash the signings..........I get it, they want players they are familiar with and you don't need playmakers at every position........but honestly the juice hasn't been worth the squeeze so nobody should be alarmed at the criticism.

They are going to have to get the ball deep to Davis and hope it works............but when they have tried at various times this season he hasn't been able to separate. The contested catch is good to have on film but even JAGs get those once in a while.......do that and take it to the house while the DB is laying in a pile and maybe you've done something........but simply winning a deep ball is not going to change how a defense attacks him. But even if they do intend to throw him the ball deep more they may not find the time they have to do so with Brown in the lineup.........because Davis doesn't provide you with what Brown can do.............which is to also the ability to take a short pass and burn the defense..........which serves to nullify pass rush..........which then creates more time to go downfield later. I don't know what the actual numbers are but I am pretty sure Allen's "time to pass" is much higher with Brown in there than without. The Chargers were basically just attacking Allen and taking their chances that the Bills WR's couldn't do much with the short throws.........and they couldn't. A healthy Brown matters A LOT.

Playmaking ability is just as important against zone defenses. For example..........Brown is excellent at catching the ball in front of the sticks and making a sudden move and getting low/diving and gaining those extra few yards. How many times yesterday did Diggs catch the ball 2 yards in front of those sticks and get zero RAC? He's a type of WR1.........but much closer to a Jarvis Landry than a Julio Jones. Unfortunately the things he's not are elusive with the ball in his hands or an exceptional deep threat. If your offense can get the secondary playing beyond the sticks.........that is where Diggs can do volume damage.

And despite being able to run the ball they struggled to pass it...........Allen averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt, turned the ball over twice and the Bills didn't have an answer when they dropped back to pass. But I was talking about the bigger picture.......obviously........hence discussing need beyond this season etc.. The objective is to win a Super Bowl very soon. If the objective were to just be a wildcard team or the 4th seed division winner.....then yup..........they can contend in that range with what they have. And yeah I agree that they can't trust that John Brown will come back at any point or be what he was last season or at the outset of this one.........this season their best option is to just hope Brown gets healthy. Needs to be addressed because you get points in the passing game..........and the leaders in ppg read like the Vegas odds favorites to win the SB.