billsfan89

I think his ceiling is a lower end WR1, but even if he's a high quality WR2 I think for pick 33 that's not a bad return on investment. Pick 33 for a WR is not the same as drafting a WR in the top 10ish range where you need that type of player to be dynamic WR1. I think if you get a WR at pick 33 that's constantly in the 800-1000 yard range on 55-75 receptions with 6-9 TD's on solid efficiency with pick 33 that's good value for the pick.

I have said this a lot about Ty but he reminds me a lot of a less powerful but faster Kevin Faulk. Faulk was always making clutch catches for 2-3 key first downs in big moments for the Pats while being a reliable backup and good pass blocker. Faulk much like Ty was an elite role player Faulk was an elite "third down back" in fact he was the first player I remember when I first started watching football in the late 90's and early 00's be referred to as a "3rd down back". Funny enough it was the Parcells/Billy B Giants that developed the modern 3rd down back with Dave Meggett. And then Faulk served that role well for the entire 2000's. Ty was a major factor in winning the Lions game and he had a good amount of key moments in other games as well. Similar to how 1-2 games a year Faulk would put up a big stat line that was key to winning a game and then most of the year just but up efficient somewhat low volume stats.

Fair points, I wasn't big on Keon prior to the draft but I did like him a lot more when he not only showed off how likable he is after the draft but also how he seemed to be a "student of the game" in his pre-draft meetings. I loved how he talked about learning the offensive line protections and calls to help understand the offense better which to me shows an attention to detail that I think you need for success. I think Keon had a "solid" rookie season and I think he would have looked a lot better had he not gotten hurt which derailed him just as he looked to be "breaking out" somewhat. I think he's got a chance to be a quality WR in this league. I think he can be a "supped up" more efficient Gabe Davis a high end down field contested catch guy but with some ability to work the lower and mid-range passing game that Gabe never seemed to be able to do consistently. I think he can be the true "WR2" type boundary player Gabe never was consistently.

Keon had in 13 games 556 yards on a 19.2 ypc with 4 TD's at age 21. Had he stayed healthy he was on pace for roughly 770 yards and 5-6 TD's. Even just taking his stats at face value that's still a solid rookie season for a WR.

Bills have Josh who costs a lot but they are paying their OT’s a lot and they have a few other “mid-level” salaries mixed in like McGovern, Samuel, Palmer, and Knox. Not shocked to see them ranked so high

Former 4th round pick from the Cards started 21 games in 4 seasons as an NT, signed with the Jets in 2024 and he got hurt. Seems like a cheap kick the tires camp body. Only 27 years old too and a big bodied NT.

His price is only going down as teams cap space dries up and teams are less willing to lose comp picks for signing a player who counts against that formula. The Bills might be able to leverage that for a better deal.

One thing that makes me a consistent McD “defender” for lack of a better word is that he’s seemingly attempted to adapt to fix his weaknesses. For example when he got here and for the first 5-6 years he was here McD was known as a very conservative coach. The past couple of seasons he’s in the top 5 of aggressive playcalling. McD held onto being very hard on players but after that article in 2023 came out he let loose a little bit and players responded. For several years McD was very loyal to his coaches and only kept guys he knew. He’s shown the past few years that he’s willing to dump coordinators and hire from outside his tree. I liked the bold move to fire Dorsey mid season and I liked the move to call the defense himself for a season. I am not sure if McD is going to get this team over the top but he’s not doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. He’s attempting to grow as a coach and that’s giving me confidence that he deserves a couple of more cracks at getting this team a title

I think they will make some at least mid level type move at corner. The Bills don’t like to go into the draft with glaring needs they seem to like having at least a veteran “starting caliber” player at minimum for each position. CB2 right now so the Bills massive glaring hole. I can see McBeane bringing back Douglas or signing another comparable talent before the draft. Right now we are in wave 2 of free agency that more calm discerning period after the first few days “frenzy”. Cap space has dried up somewhat and teams are picky about players that will cost them comp picks. So the movement is slow but I do think there wil be a move at corner

Percentage of cap is pretty much what you have to go by. People make the same mistake in the NBA thinking large dollar amounts are huge overpays when in reality they aren't. The Knicks in 2022 signed Jalen Brunson to a 4 year 104 million dollar contract and a lot of more casual fans saw that 100 million dollar number and were clowning on the Knicks for paying that much money to a point guard who average 16.2 points and 4.8 assists the previous season. When in reality he was the 14th highest paid point guard in the league which was good value for what he was already producing but with upside for a 25 year old. Anyway the point is that total numbers need the context of percentage of the cap. If you take Palmers 12 million a year (not the actual cap hit but I am just going off the aav total) and you take it as a percentage of the cap it is about 4.4% of the cap. In 2020 cap dollars 4.4% is roughly a cap hit of about 8.65 million. Shows just how in a short period of time the dollars have gone up.

Very good analysis, I kind of forgot they were very interested in Franklin last year and they passed on him at what many would have considered "good" value. I like Jackson as a prospect, he's a power edge rusher with a lot of physical upside. I wouldn't hate him in round 2. Get Grant or T. Williams at pick 30 to sure up the Interior DL and then go with Jackson for upside/depth off the edge and still have a 2nd left over to grab a corner or receiver.

It's been a solid but unspectacular off-season. Although I do think I will feel significantly better if they can find a veteran starting caliber corner. The Bills got 3 of their 5 pending 2026 free agents coming off-rookie deals signed to extensions with plenty of time to extend Benford and Cook if they can get them to good deals. The Bills also resigned a good chunk of their critical role players (Ty, Gilliam, Fergueson, and Hamlin) which I think is a positive. I also like some of the smaller kick the tires moves they made bringing back Dane as some cheap depth, Shenault and Green are camp bodies with some upside, and I also think the value they got from Elam was good. The outside main free agents were pretty good. I really think the Bosa signing was a very strong one, low risk high reward. If he can just gives the Bills 9-10 games of high quality play it is a worthwhile signing, I think the bet on him in a more rotational role might keep him healthier is a smart one. Hoecht and Larry O were nice moves that beefed up the defensive line and in the case of Hoecht added some versatility. However, the PED suspensions for both aren't great. Forrest may turn out to be an underrated addition as he's solid depth but he adds a nice amount of athleticism and competition to the safety group. Offensively the team had less needs. I'm kind of in the middle on the Palmer acquisition. He's the type of player the Bills needed (a WR that can play on the outside) and a modestly productive one over his first 4 years. But he has not been a (at least semi) consistent game breaker the Bills kind of need. So the fit is good but the quality of player might be lacking. Overall the Bills have still leave me lacking at two starting positions CB and WR. They aren't likely to make a major move at WR until the draft where they will add some depth/development there. But if they can add a vet corner that's going to put them in a position where they don't "have" to take a corner early that's gonna make the off-season thus far look a lot better.

Likely the case, given the Bills chronic need for depth at LB if he’s not significantly injured this season they could bring him back in a depth/situational role for one more season.

I like Collins and Williams at or around pick 30. Get me a big run stuff with some pass rush upside and then get an edge and WR in round 2.

Dane has played well in McD's system the frequent times he was put in as a backup.

I feel like the Bills will have plenty of good options to get a big run stuffing DT with pass rushing upside. The Bills will have at least 2-3 options that fit the description so to speak. Kenneth Grant- Might shoot up boards but there's an outside chance he could be there at or around pick 30. Tyleik Williams- Big run stuffer with pass rush upside, like should be there at or around pick 30. Alfred Collins- Another big run stuffer with some pass rush upside, seems like he should also be there at pick 30 could even be had in the early 2nd round. Derrick Harmon- Not a massive run stuffer but a big guy more pass rush upside than a dominant run stuffer but still a plus run defender. Other later round options will also bet there like Jordan Phillips and Deone Walker.

Likely gonna have to just draft mostly defense try to get a bunch of cheap young defenders and if you can hit on 3-4 starters maybe you can cobble together a decent defense.

The draft is about 5 weeks away, combine, senior bowl, and first wave of free agency are done. So it's kind of a time when a lot of smokescreens and shake ups happen in mock drafts and rumors start to fly.

People who just blindly say BPA think they sound very smart but in reality when you have a team that is of high quality and has areas where needs aren't pressing then you have to take the best player within a position of need. The Bills have a range of needs as you mentioned there should be a corner, defensive linemen, or receiver at or close to the top of their board.

The off the field stuff is just too much of a possible distraction and the age/injury concern makes the possible reward not great either.

I like giving the replay assist more power on clear calls. I also like pushing the touchback up to 35 yards so that teams actually kick in the landing zone so that they have more kickoff returns. OT rules in the regular season seem fine tweaks seem not needed. Technology to spot the ball if they could do it fine that's a positive.

They knew about Hoecht, no need to hold that against him. Larry O might be a blessing in disguise as he's always hurt, might be good to have him more fresh for a deeper run.

It is cheap depth for a guy who has played fairly well (Esp as he always plugged in as a backup). Some people just like to complain.

Multiple very good "pocket collapsing" DT's who are also massive and hard to move in the ground game should be there at pick 30. Kenneth Grant and Tyleik Williams are my early draft crushes for the Bills at or around pick 30, I also like Derrick Harmon. I think one of those 3 should be there at pick 30.