billsfan89

Worthy just screams injury risk but when he's on the field I think he's going to be a good player. I just don't think Worthy is going to be able to stay healthy at his size and playing at his speed. I also like McConkey's chances after this season to be a good WR as his situation with Herbert and Harbaugh seems like it could allow him to put up good numbers.

I think there is a scenario where Von sticks around for another season. If he proves to be a solid but unspectacular DE (gets 7-8ish sacks in a rotational role) in 2024 and he's willing to rework his deal massively again I think Von and the Bills can come into an agreement where both sides needs align. Although I do agree that he's most likely heading for a cut but the Bills willingness to take a big dead cap hit on him and Von showing he is willing to negotiate at least make it a possibility he comes back. I do agree on Knox, as long as Knox is even remotely productive he's going to be back, he is also friends with Josh so that along with his money being hard to get out of until 2026 make him a solid spot on the 2025 roster.

Not a surprise the Bills are taking a gigantic dead cap hit this year on Diggs alone whose dead cap is 12.5% of the cap. The Bills are also taking 22.9 million in dead cap on Tre White, Bates, Floyd, Bates, Hyde, Mitch, and Poyer. There's even another 4 players the Bills are taking dead cap hits above 1 million on which adds up along with smaller dead cap hits almost every team takes. In the beginning of the McD/Beane era in 2017-2018 the Bills took a ton of dead cap to properly reset the cap situation after two years into the Rex Ryan era the team was overleveraged with bad contracts. 2017 the Bills were 3rd in dead cap with 30 million in dead cap. In 2018 the Bills were number one in dead cap by a large margin (with 70 million which was 27 million more than the second place team). The Bills since after the Bills got out from under the bad Rex Ryan contracts in 2019 The Bills have been ranked no higher than 21st in dead cap with some years ranking in the bottom 4. So the Bills getting out from under the declining vets and a few void years in 2024 after a 5 year period of being very low in dead cap is good longer term roster management.

The league has far more to lose if games were caught being fixed (quite literally everything) than they would to gain. So I do not believe there is an institutional fixing of the league (in that the NFL from the top down is instructing officials to fix games). The NFL if it wishes for a more exciting product can and has made rule changes to make games higher scoring. If the NFL wants there to be more competitive games they have salary cap rules and draft rules they can adjust to achieve the balance they want relatively speaking. The NFL league office already has the levers of power to achieve the outcomes it wants without having to risk their existence rigging games institutionally. While I am sure when the mob was more involved and there was a lot more money in gambling off the field than there was on the field it is possible some games were fixed (and even then I don't think it was institutional). But in the modern era The NFL has a decade long TV deal worth tens of billions of dollars, they don't need to risk the entire leagues health for some marginal unknown benefit. Is it possible that a compromised ref situation could occur? Yes, I do suppose that a ref whose in too deep with the wrong people or working for some other motive could be compromised and fix a game. With how tightly refs are regulated and how fairly well paid they are now I think that's a lot harder to do but they cannot catch everything and there's always the possibility someone slips through the cracks. That's not to say that NFL games are always well officiated but I don't think the officiating is trying to "rig" the game for one team at least not intentionally. I do think that veteran QB/Coach combos do develop relationships with the refs over time that allows for some friendly interactions that could lead to favorable calls but that's just more of a human element.

Dawson Knox’s Creek…

Even if Diggs has a very good season in Houston at age 32 I don't think many teams are going to be lining up to give him a long term deal, at most maybe a team gives him a 2-3 year deal where the 3rd year is easy to get out of and that's best case. Likely he's going to sign a 1-2 year contract even if he puts up good production. WR's tend to fall off around age 33-34 historically. So paying a guy going into his age 32 season is not something most teams are lining up to do on longer term commitments.

ST was a big time sore spot last season. The second Pats game was a lot closer because the ST unit spotted that Pats a free opening kick TD. The Chargers game was made even tighter because of the fumbled punt. That's in addition to the missed kicks in Philly that cost the Bills that game most likely and the Denver game where a simple snafu cost them the game outright. That's in addition to smaller execution issues. The ST unit only made two big play the Harty punt return that was critical in winning the Fins game and the opening kick forced fumble and recovery in the second Jets game that set the tone for that game and converted into points. I am fine with Martin, he looked solid in the pre-season and I think he can/will be about an average punter which is fine. I also think the kick return game with the player the Bills traded for from the Jets will be improved. Hopefully the Bills coverage units with lesser known players will be better. But Bass is where I am really concerned. He clearly has the yips despite making easy kicks in the pre-season he clearly is struggling from 40 out. I think Bass is going to cost this team a game and the Bills will replace him in season.

Many times a Leveraged Buyout will include the business its self borrowing money to purchase its self, this is called a Management Buyout. A PE Firm will come in and put up 15% of the money but run the company which just borrowed money to pay for its self. That type of financing scheme should be illegal buy the company outright or don't buy it at all. These are companies that are usually profitable or only recently undergoing harder times. Many times like Toys R Us the companies could have stayed in business had they been able to put money into the infrastructure or operations of the company instead of the large debt/interest payments. So these companies will be saddled with tons of debt while the PE firms put up a small percentage to buy the firm and then make that money back by charging the company management fees and stripping away the the profitable entities and taking their cut from those sales. This adds no value because the companies go out of business largely because of the useless debt they took on and all the management fees.

It is interesting to feel like if this season doesn't work out that the Bills are going to be "fine" as they have a good amount of premium draft capital and a decent amount of cap space to make any additions to a roster that is at worst in need of some pieces but not likely a complete overhaul. Bills likely are going to have anywhere between 40-60 million in space (with only a few key free agents) entering the off-season and 6 picks in rounds 1-4 along with 2-4 later round picks depending on how comp picks go. So there's room to reload the roster if the Bills aren't able to get it done this year.

Bills got some good day 3 and undrafted years. 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022 all yielded starting players and role players. 2017- Milano 2018- Taron Johnson, Neal, Levi Wallace, and Boetteger (Neal a role player Boetteger a brief starter) 2020- Gabe Davis, Bass, and Dane 2022- Shakir, Benford, while Spector and Anderson have caught on as backups. Even a weaker year like 2021 still yielded Demar and Morris who caught on as backups. Only 2019 and 2023 really look like years where they couldn't at least produce multiple viable backups if not starters in day 3 and undrafted players. I would say that the Bills day 3 and UDFA record from 2017 to now is pretty dam good. If you can produce a starter (let alone two like in some seasons) and a role player or two in that area that's a pretty good record to have in that area of player development.

I think DE is gonna start looking a lot better after this season. I think Groot is looking for a breakout while I also think AJE is going to take a moderate step up and make the Bills DE development look better. I also think Solomon is going to show some flashes too which should show promise for the future of their ability to scout and develop DE's. The Bills haven't had too much in the way of DE draft picks from 2017-2019. The only DE they drafted in the first three McBeane seasons was a 7th round pick in Darryl Johnson in 2019. So there hasn't been much of a chance to develop high or even mid-round picks until 2020 and it takes about 3-4 years to see what you have or what the potential of prospects are. So we are at that tipping point with the DE's drafted in 2020-21. From 2020-2023 there have been only 3 DE's taken by the Bills. AJE, Groot, and Boogie. Boogie is a complete bust so a big strike against them there but the other two picks Groot and AJE have developed into productive players although it is questionable if they have reached their draft status. Groot the past two seasons has played like a solid starting caliber DE after showing some flashes his rookie year. As a late 1st round pick could you consider that below expectations? Certainly possible but it's not the worst outcome to get a solid starter in the late 1st even if you want a Pro-Bowl caliber guy. AJE got off to a slow start due to various factors (Covid season and transforming his body by losing 20 pounds) but the past two seasons he's established himself as a high end rotational DE. Once again late 2nd round pick you might want more of him but he's got room at his age to go up another level in play. TLDR: Bills didn't draft any DE's in the mid-rounds or higher form 2017-2019 so we are now seeing what the players drafted after 2020 will be which may make the Bills DE development look a lot better.

I don't love Martin, I thought in 2022 he was good, about a lower end top 10 punter that season. In 2023 he was below average but not tragic, somewhere in the 19-22 ranks. The Bills can live with a below average but not tragic punter but I hope Martin can be a bit better in 2024 than he was in 2023. That being said I actually thought he kicked the ball well in pre-season. And punting is something the "eye test" and stats can get you a good indicator of performance. So I have no idea how the ***** PFF graded Martin anything less than average based on pre-season. So yeah I am going to chuck PFF's grade out the window on this one. As far as special teams I am more so concerned with Bass than Martin. I think Martin's floor is what he was in 2023. The Bills can live with a below average punter. But they are more likely to lose games with missed kicks than a shanked punt. And Bass is a far bigger liability to miss kicks than Martin is to have a really awful punt. I am not too thrilled with either but I think Martin's solid pre-season performance makes me much more confident in him than Bass.

13 seconds and poorly timed injuries in 2020, 2022, and 2023. That's what has caused the Bills to not have more success in the playoffs. One choke job and just bad injury luck has resulted in 4 playoff failures. The Bills time will come though...

Bills - 11-6 Jets- 10-7 Dolphins- 8-9 Pats- 5-12 I think the Bills last year were saddled with a lot of bad luck, the Bills last year were probably a 12-13 win team that got really really unlucky. I think this year the Bills will have better luck but a bit less talent at WR/S that will lead to them not receiving that positive regression. The Jets I think are going to get off to a fast start. Something like 5-2 or so. But I think that the Jets like most teams who are relying on high end injury prone veteran talent are going to play like world beaters early on but they are going to fade down the stretch as injuries and age set in. I think they do if Rodgers is reasonably healthy they will scratch out 10 wins and make the playoffs. The Dolphins missed their window last season in my opinion. They have a lot of talent at WR and I think Tua is a solid QB in that system, but both sides of the line they are worse on which is going to cause them issues. With the loss Hunt on the offensive line and the loss of Wilkerson on the defensive line it is going to make them weaker on both sides of the interior line. But they are also having their two premier defensive ends Chubb and Phillips are coming off late season ACL tears which likely means they could not be back to 100% this upcoming season or at the very least get off to a very slow start. A bad season from one or both of them along with the absence of Wilkerson is going to lead to a diminished defensive line. Pats are a year away, they are going to have a rookie QB with a lack luster offensive supporting cast. That's along with a defense that is missing Baremore to injury and trade away Judon both key pieces to a defense that had been strong in recent season. Along with a new coaching staff I think the Pats are just going to be mediocre on both sides of the ball. I do think the Pats might scratch out a few extra wins due to Maye and a new coaching staff providing some spark along with a defense with many players coached by Billy B that might turn in a few good games. I do think all 4 teams are flawed. The Bills could be lackluster at WR and possibly have some growing pains at LB (due to the Milano injury) and S but I think McD will settle down the defense. But I think the Bills are much less flawed than the rest. Jets are relying on an old QB coming off a serious injury and several other key players who are older and injury prone. Fins lost key players on the OL/DL while also having their top 2 pass rushers on the edge coming off of late season ACL tears while. Pats just lack talent on both sides and have a rookie QB.

Leveraged buyouts have really made Private Equity have a terrible reputation. There is a need in the market for companies with good products/services that need capital to scale up their production to have PE firms provide capital for them at a loan cost or percentage stake. But leveraged buyouts seems like shady ways for PE firms to make money without providing any value for what they do. In my opinion leveraged buyouts should be illegal, if PE firms want to buy a company outright and strip it's division out and sell them fine I don't see an issue as those divisions will be incorporated into other companies and still provide those services. But leveraged buyouts just seem to provide no actual value to anyone but the PE firms and hurt the companies who are driven out of business because they were saddled with debt and management fees by these PE firms.

Private Equity money is probably the most "expensive" money (in terms of conditions to get the money) you can get outside of a loan shark. 10% seems like a fairly nominal amount but PE firms will only want more influence. NFL teams are multi-billion dollar assets and there's not too many people with the cash and interest to be able to buy these teams at the evaluations the league and owners want. Sovereign Wealth Funds and PE Firms are some of the only entities that have the piles of cash and seemingly the interest to buy these teams. The NFL's greed will undermine its sustainability as is the case for many businesses sadly.

McD has to have a reputation as one of the best secondary coaches in the league among players. So I think for a player like Cine who is in desperate need of a reclamation of his career being under McD is probably the best situation you can hope to be in to improve your skills/performance. For Cine I think he's going to have a chance to "marinate" on the PS this season maybe do a cup of coffee for a quick call up if there are injuries at safety. Cine getting a year to learn the system and get healthy (he's been somewhat banged up his first two seasons) and then coming into camp next season ready to compete for a backup spot.

The 49ers struggle offensively when Deebo, CMC, or Kittle are out with injuries, only last season were they pretty consistent when one of those three was out and that was due to Aiyuk giving them a 4th consistent pass catching option. If Aiyuk is gone the 49ers were going to be relying on a 3 semi-injury prone (I think those three always are prone to getting dinged up) players to carry their passing attack and hoping that a late 1st round WR can step in immediately. With Aiyuk they make Pearsall more of a depth/role player his rookie year and then he can take on more in 2025/26 once Kittle really declines and Deebo maybe hits a wall or is pushing past 30.

I think the truth is somewhere in between. I do think when Rodgers is healthy and playing Rodgers will give them above average QB play which is a huge upgrade for them but I also think the Jets are relying on a lot of injury prone players on bad turf. I have the Jets going 10-7 and being the wildcard 6th seed. I have the Bills going 11-6 and being the 4 seed.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Jets get off to a fast 5-2ish start only to fade down the stretch due to age, injury, and bad coaching. Their roster is heavy on vets and injury prone players, those types of teams start fast and fade.

He's a good athlete, he works hard, and he's produced at the college level (led UB in tackles in 2023 and was a Division I-AA All-American in 2022). He also got in a fortunate (for him) situation where Milano getting hurt and Dion Jones not performing well opened up opportunities at the LB position both in the pre-season and to make the 53. If Andreesen can provide value on special teams he's got a chance in 2026 to possibly work/develop himself into a starting role. Milano's just turned 30 and coming off back to back injuries he's not likely to be on the roster past 2025. Bernard is also going to be a free agent after 2025 and while I think they will make every effort to retain him there's definitely a need for the Bills to develop LB's.

The Bills have been developing some linebackers lately. Since 2022 the Bills have been developing LB's. Bernard was a 3rd round pick he's developed into a quality starter, Dodson was undrafted and played well in spurts and got a decent contract in Seattle, Spector looked competent as a back up as a 7th round pick, and Dorian Williams is a recent 3rd round pick whose flashed potential and we will see what the Bills have in him. I don't see why Buffalo Joe can't be a role player in the NFL? Can he be a Milano like All-Pro? I doubt that's going to happen but can he be a special teams ace and a quality backup? I think that's very realistic. I also think if he can stick for a couple of years as a special teamer he's got a chance to develop into a starter possibly. He is probably going to need a couple of years to develop and he's not going to stick around if he's not providing value on the roster on special teams.

The Bills have 6 games in primetime. As for the other 11 games at about 400 dollars that's 36ish bucks a game and I can't swing that. For a few weeks I can just do piracy and then for some of the games I can go to my local sports bar have a few cheap beers and watch the games and probably spend 25-30 bucks watching the games and be on top about 200 bucks. Overall if you got the money to pony up to watch the games in the comfort of your own home easily and in high quality that's great. But it is a hard value proposition for a lot of fans especially with other options out there.

Last year there were two claimed on waivers, both were the teams 7th round picks in the 2023 NFL draft. I am sure in the McD era there maybe have been 1-2 others but I think it happening last season to two players made fans more paranoid about it. It can happen and I did think there was a chance it could happen with Hardy but it was unlikely.

No shockers outside of Hardy who by all accounts was playing well in camp and looked good to the amateur eye in pre-season. The Bills did sure up the kick returning game with Codrington via a trade with the Jets. Only other real notables were Shorter (man what a waste of a somewhat early 5th round pick, one year on IR then cut his second season), L.Collins (writing on the wall wasn't playing well but still a notable vet reclamation project cut), Gore Jr (team was just set at RB will be on the PS if unclaimed), Davidson (same situation as Gore Jr), and Kinglsey Jonathan (hung around a bit on the roster had a chance to make the 53). Not much else to be surprised by.