billsfan89

Josh has improved tremendously in the short and intermediate range, he has regressed somewhat with his downfield passing. I think weighing both elements of his game I would say he has improved overall. I am very curious to see how he improves or develops the rest of the way. Through 8 games he has already shown significant growth.

I thought he would still be an effective player as a Niner, zone corners can get away with a bit less athleticism with disciplined play and smarts. But I didn't think he would be a lock down corner again. I thought he would be a borderline pro-bowl type player for a few seasons but he is almost back to his Legion of Boom form.

I think they have to play Oliver on pass rush downs. I think honestly he is doing well on passing situations. But he is a bit of a liability in the rushing game. I think he can get eaten up by mauler guards. Now I do think that long term he can be a 3 down DT but he needs a full off-season of NFL strength and conditioning to beef up a bit without losing his quickness. I think if adds that little bit of size and strength he could be off to the races. I think at this point it is best to just rotate the other 4 DT’s on the early downs and short yardage situations while using Oliver on 3rdand 2ndand long situations.

I do love that this story is getting more attention.

On my eye test Spain has been decent but nothing fantastic. I think Feliciano has been much better.

They have an LB on the PS but they only have 5 LB's on the roster (3 starters 2 depth) kind of weird but they needed to make a move to strengthen the middle of the defense.

I love the fact that effort seems to have been made to address the issue.

Talent is a great start but talent alone doesn't win games. You first off need the right talent. As we learned with Rex you can't shoehorn in players better suited for a 4-3 into a 3-4. Secondly you need the coaching to properly prepare and train that talent. Finally you need a coach that builds a culture that helps overcome the struggles that any NFL team will encounter. The Browns don't have good coaching despite having a lot of pieces of individual talent on their roster.

I do agree that the NFL is going to avoid putting a team full time in Mexico for many reasons safety included. I think they will continue to play games there and market heavily there. But overall they won't want to make a full time commitment to that market until they prove they have the money in that market to support a full time team and the safety issues are mitigated more.

The NFL wants London badly. The UK and Mexico remain the NFL's best international growth opportunities. The NBA has China as a huge growth market. The MLB has Latin America and Japan. Even the NHL has Eastern Europe and Scandinavia as growth opportunities (and the NHL is of course huge in Canada.) The NFL has struggled to find an international audience until finding recent success and growth in the UK and Mexico. I think you can safely say that the Jags will sooner rather than later be moving to London. That's just the truth of the matter. I don't like it as I hate the early London games but the NFL needs that international growth to expand its revenue (The US market is oversaturated.) Mexico City would present less challenges but I think they don't have the same rabid fanbase as the UK (I would say the NFL would prefer to continue to build that more slowly before rushing a team there, but in 10 years expect that to be the big push.) Honestly London would present a huge logistical nightmare (I think they would have the team do 4 game home/away strips.) But it could be done. I hate the London games but the only way I think they could do it is if they added an extra bye week to the season (16 games in 18 weeks) and used the bye weeks to pad out the travel schedule either giving teams bye weeks in-between London games or out of London games. Adding a second bye just seems necessary and would improve player safety (more time for nagging injuries to heal.)

The problem with the Browns is a combination of a tough early schedule and bad coaching. The Browns are as talented as the Bills in my opinion (the whole "on paper" argument) but the Browns have had tougher opponents and aren't as well coached. Coaching in the NFL isn't just the typical things we associate with coaching, things like being prepared to play, penalties, and situational awareness along with game planning. It is also having the right schemes and talents suited for the scheme. Cohesion in talent and scheme is insanely important to a teams success. Then there is just the culture that surrounds a team and allows them to bounce back from adversity. There is a reason that players "playing hard" is considered to be at least a sign of good coaching. The NFL is more than just accumulating talent. Almost any coach needs a degree of talent to win. And talent needs good coaching to win. The Browns are learning the hard way how important coaching is. Their skill position talent is among the best in the league, their QB is a young top pick coming off a successful rookie year, their defense has a lot of talented players including a lockdown corner and a prime time pass rusher. Yet they sit at 2-6. Their schedule can be to blame in part of that but they lost to the Broncos and Titans both of whom aren't world beaters. This team is a mess and honestly it is do or die for them on Sunday at home. They can looking at their schedule (2 games against the Bengals, 1 game against the Fins, and games against the Cards and Steelers) they can go 6-1 to end the season and finish with 9 wins which gives them a shot at the playoffs. But if they go 2-7 the best they can finish is 8-8 which won't make the playoffs and will end their season more than likely disappointingly.

Just move the Chargers back to San Diego, those fans supported the team and San Diego in addition to being a beautiful city is a large market that can support a team.

IF the Bills were to cut Star (and I am not sure Liuget is that kind of player) what are the cap ramifications? Do they carry more or less dead money into next season? Is there any benefit to cutting Star this season as opposed to next? Just curious. I don't think McD is looking to replace Star and I think he holds onto him out of bizarre loyalty he shows some vets. But if they were considering that type of move does it have any benefit cap wise?

That's not shocking a teams whose strength has been defense and has had a mediocre offense the past three seasons tends to win games when opponents don't score a lot.

I think 10 wins for sure gets you a wildcard spot. The Colts I think get to 9-10 wins. I think the Steelers, Raiders, and Chargers are all possible competition to get to 9 wins. I don't see the Titans or Jags getting past 8 wins. So if the Bills can get to 10 wins they sit even with the Colts and ahead of the more fringe contenders who have 4-5 losses already and some of whom play each other. In the end just beat the Browns and secure win 7. Far too early to look ahead.

B- a solid game where he did mostly managed the game and closed it out when needed. The coaching left 3 points on the board due to an idiotic decision to run it up the middle on 4th and 1 when they had failed many times to get a 1 yard game thought that same message. Josh avoided turnovers and came up big when needed (his only fumble was due to an idiotic play call.) He and the offense did stall at times and they let the Skins hang in the game. However overall I think Josh did what the gameplan called for and did it fairly well.

I thought Rex put him in the wrong situation in 2015 and 2016, his pressures and sacks were way down in both years. In 2017 it was bizarre because he looked like the same player he was in 2014 but he just didn't get sacks, the pressure numbers and the metrics against the run were good but the sack totals were low. 2018 was his best year under his extension. 7 sacks isn't a spectacular sack total however he was the heart of the defense and his pressure numbers were much improved for the second straight year. In 2019 I think he has been closer to that 2017 version, getting pressure but not being nearly as dynamic. I think in 2020 he has to fall into a rotational player or at worst the second pass rush option. Murphy has not gotten it done, Shaq is a JAG and there really isn't much else off the edge. Ideally I would still resign Shaq to a moderate deal in the range of 6 million to be a rotational DE, Murphy should be cut outright you can save over 7 million on the cap by cutting him dead money is minimal. I think they need to address the edge rush and D-line as urgently as they addressed the O-line last year. Getting a top DE like Ngakoue, resigning Shaq or getting another rotational player and adding a run stuffing DT is the massive overhaul needed for the defensive line.

I would assume it is a candidate to be flexed. The Bills could easily be 9-3 or 8-4 going into that game. The Ravens are likely going into that game leading their division. Matchup of 2 of the more successful and overlooked QB's in the 2018 draft class. I could see NBC flexing that game easily. However that's a long way away. Hopefully the Bills just beat the Browns.

The OP is very misinformed about Hughes contract. Since 2015(when he signed the deal he is currently on) his cap hit has averaged 9.5 million. His contract was back loaded where he made 6 and 7.5 million on the cap in the first two years before ballooning to 12.9 million this season. So this 14 million dollar number lacks context. The Bills could have cut Hughes before they extended him for a small dead cap number if Hughes was a big albatross to their free agency plans (give the money they spent I think that his contract was obviously not an impediment.) Hughes came off his best year in ages in 2018 and the staff resigned him for a modest 9.5 million cap hit that they can get out of in 2021 with minimal consequences. Is he overpaid at 9.5 million? You can make the argument but I think that's close to his value.

Clowney and Yannick Ngakoue are two prime time edge rushers who are more than likely to hit the market. Chris Jones from KC is another interior pass rusher on the market. There are also some other players that are on the bubble too but those are the big names. Personally I would love to see the Bills go in on Ngakoue to set the edge the next 3-5 years.

The big pieces home run pieces needed in my mind are a Dynamic Edge Rusher and a WR1. Some other moderate needs could end up costing significant money are a run stuffing DT, TE, OLB, and RT. While depth and specialists are needed at RB (you need a between the tackles player to replace Gore), DE (If you let Shaq walk and cut Murphy you need a rotational pass rushing DE) Safety (you need some depth behind an aging Poyer and Hyde) OLB (you are thin there) guard, and you probably need a new punter. Now that's only two big swings but that's in addition to the other depth and mid-level roster building needs. I think they have to split the difference they need to fill one of their two big needs via free agency and find another starting piece along with addressing some of their depth needs. In a stacked free agent pass rushing class I see no reason why you couldn't bring in a top edge rusher and find a run stuffing DT for a moderate price. You should also be able to find a good punter and fill some of your depth and specialist needs while taking care of your own players who need extension. I think you can then draft a WR early to fill out your other big need and draft other needs for depth and specialists in the other rounds. But if somehow a top flight WR hit the market would the team go hard after them AND a top edge rusher along with maybe a DT? Having two 15-20 million aav contracts added to the roster limits your flexibility but it gives you a legit window to contend.

The Bills average age is thrown off a bit by Lorax and Frank Gore being super old and some of their depth players like Lee Smith being older. They aren’t a young team even factoring those things in but they aren’t an old team either. However the Bills remain young at critical positions, Josh is a young QB, Dawkins, Singletary, Knox, and Cody are young pieces on offense, Milano, Edumonds, Tre, Ed Oliver, H.Phillips (Injury not withstanding), Levi Wallace, T.Johnson, and Shaq Lawsons are all players who are either starters or playing significant snaps on defense. The past 3 drafts have produced a lot of players playing significant snaps which leads fans to think of the team as being younger. As far as the contracts the Bills are not really hampered by any of their current contracts. Star in my opinion is the only horrid contract on the roster. Kroft and Murphy can be cut with minimal dead cap hits, Brown and Mitch are fairly big contracts but both players are performing to their cap numbers, and Hughes might be a tad bit overpaid at 9.5 million but he still brings value. Star on the other hand carries a 7.8 million dollar dead cap hit if cut in 2020 (thus only a 3ish million dollar savings.) If they do designate Star as a post June 1stcut they would take a 3.65 dead cap hit in 2020 and 2021 but save 6.6 million in 2020 if they want to maximize their cap space in 2020. Still this team is in a good cap situation in 2020. If they cut Kroft and Murphy they will have 102 million in cap space. Their only major free agents are Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson. Granted they have Milano, Poyer, and Dawkins all on the last year of their deals and Tre White who could also use an extension (Although they will almost certainly use their 5thyear option on him.) I think they could take care of their own Free Agents easily and still have enough cap space to go after a big fish and another starter in free agency while still remaining prudent going forward. The way McBeane structured their contracts and added talent this off-season was great, they remain in a good position long term and things are looking good for this team to be able to continue to add and retain talent going forward.

I am curious as to how McBeane looks at the 2020 season. Let's say modestly that the Bills win 10 games and lose in the wildcard round. How do they view the 2020 season? Do they view it as an "All-In" type season where they have Josh on his rookie deal and a ton of cap space to improve a roster win a 10 win talent base? Or do they continue the more sustained approach where they sign maybe one big free agent (like Mitch) and maybe one or two other more modest starting caliber players (like Brown and Cole) while using their massive cap space to take care of their own players in need of extensions? I think they go with a more prudent approach as opposed to signing 2-3 big free agents and maybe trading for a veteran starter to just go for a run. I could see McBeane going after a big time edge rusher and another starting caliber player on offense or defense but mainly spending their pile of cap space on extensions for their own players. While addressing WR and other needs via the draft. I hope they don't go too conservative. They need to add at least 2 high end starting pieces to this talent base along with a strong draft to vault this team into contention. I see no reason why they can't "take care of their own" and add a big time pass rusher and another piece somewhere else and then fill the remaining needs via the draft.

Hughes this season is on the last year of his contract extension he signed in 2015 when he was coming off of back to back 10 sack seasons. Contracts in the NFL tend to be back loaded money wise. Despite his 14.5 million salary his cap hit for 2019 is 12.9 million still a bit overpaid for his production. But his cap hits the past 4 seasons were 6.17 million in 2015, 7.5 million in 2016, 10.4 million in 2017 and 10.4 million in 2018. So the Bills are in 2019 essentially paying for Hughes cheaper contract numbers early in his deal. His cap hits in 2020 and 2021 are a modest 9.5 million each year with the ability to get out of his deal in 2021 at a low dead cap hit. The context of Hughes being paid his current number are the result of circumstances. Has he produced the sack totals the team wanted? No but his pressure numbers are good, he is stout against the run, and if you watch the games you know he is a factor. He should be a heavily productive rotation player the next 2 seasons at a fair cap number. He also has good value in the locker room. I do suspect this team does bring in a big time edge rusher via free agency to get Hughes down to being the 2nd best pass rusher (a role he is better suited for) and the team has both the cap room to do so in a free agent class that boasts a lot of options as far as edge rushers go.

The Pats had a very good defense last season. It isn't a shock that their defense which wasn't super old and is coached by Billy B returned to form the next season. However this hype about them being a generationally "great" defense similar to the 2000 Raves, 2002 Bucs, 2013 Seahawks or something of that ilk is nothing more than hype. Anyone could read their schedule and see they played some of the worst QB's and overall offenses in the league. That's no insult to the Bills offense but I would classify them as slightly below average with a QB who is young and growing and that was the best offense they played up until they ran into the Ravens. The Pats defense is going to regress to a standard very good defense as they play better offenses. That's not to say that their defense can't carry them to a Super Bowl but it isn't a all time great defense like people were hyping. I think this reflects the sports news media's need for consistent 24/7 content as they tend to be very week to week reactionary to every little thing as they have airtime to fill.