billsfan89

Milano seems a bit high at 12.5 million aav. I think that comes down to about 9ish million aav. White and Dawkins seem accurate. That would put White at 16.5 million aav and Dawkins at 14.5 million aav. Both guys would come in combined at 31 million aav, which is a hefty chunk of the cap but hopefully you can roll over some of the current space (20+ million) to front load those salaries and keep the team's cap healthy going forward.

This trade makes zero sense for the Vikings. For one why would they trade Diggs? Two why would they take back Cole Beasley when Thilen is occupying their slot WR position. What are they getting for an elite WR? A solid slot corner, a redundant WR, and a 4th round pick? The Vikings save about the same amount of cap space cutting Rhodes as they would trading him so there is no benefit in taking on Rhodes salary in a trade and while Johnson would be a good get and a 4th round pick is an asset the drop between Diggs and Beasley isn't worth it. Don't get me wrong I would easily give up a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick for Diggs who would instantly fill the need for a WR (although I would still draft a WR in round 3 to get a bit younger at the position and add depth) and easily anchor the WR core for the next 3 seasons as Diggs will be 27 next season. And Digg's contract is easy to get out of after 2 seasons so it isn't a bad contract to take on. But I don't see the Vikings dumping Diggs who is in his prime and on a more than fair contract. Let alone dumping him for a mediocre package of players and a mid round pick.

Setting aside the general nihilistic nature of getting older and everything being better when you are younger. In terms of general relevance Monday Night football can be the top relevant game or at least something that has a special nature to it. If they improved the presentation and got better games you would see more buzz about it. But Sunday Night getting the A-Slate and great presentation by NBC (Al Michaels one of the best announcers ever and overall great presentation) and the flex schedule really just put Monday Night football in the dustbin. I also think Thursday Night games have also had an impact as Monday Night used to be the last chance for action until the weekend. Now 3 days later you get a Thursday game.

Sunday Night football getting the A-slate of games and the flex schedule helping ensure the best games late in the season made Monday Night football lose its cache years ago. I think if they put in more effort to get better games on Monday's and improve the commentary/presentation it can be better respected but I just don't see it ever returning to the event it once was. Even in the 2000's Monday Night football as a kid/teenager was always the game everyone talked about whereas the Sunday night game was usually an after thought unless something extraordinary happened or one of the local teams were playing. Now Sunday Night football has that cache and buzz.

I would expect there to be a draft pick coming to the Panthers but if it stands as a player for player trade it is a huge win for the Chargers.

Belicheat will take a look at the vet QB's available to replace Brady and land on Rivers as a stop gap. Rivers in recent years up until 2019 had been a great QB in terms of consistency and low turnovers. In 2017 and 2018 he had 10 and 12 picks to 28 and 32 TD's. That's a nearly 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio. His 2017 and 2018 production levels also included high completion percentages. I think Billy B knows a bargin when he sees one and will use Rivers as his QB the next 2 seasons to buy him some time to groom a young QB. Rivers also comes at a cheaper price than Dalton who will require significant draft capital to trade for and might be as good or better anyway. I think that Rivers makes a lot of sense for the Pats if Brady bolts. Rivers can be asked to mostly manage games and work within a system. Rivers has played in a lot of different systems under a lot of different coaches and has had mostly success. I think Billy B will just ask him to mostly manage games and hand the ball off only letting him loose in games when needed.

Some non-Bills predictions and Bills predictions for free agency. Bills Predictions 1- Quinton Spain will be the only major resigned player. Phillips and Shaq will be allowed to test the market and they will get overpaid. 2- No major splashes but several quality signings. I think they try and replicate last year’s prudent approach to free agency. I think they do go with one bigger signing in the 10-12 million aav range (similar to Mitch last off-season) and then 2-3 other 7-9 million aav signings to fill out other needs. 3- Mario Addison will be brought in to replace Shaq and an Edge defender will be drafted in the first 3 rounds to help get younger at the position long term. 4- Koft is cut but Murphy and most of the other “cut” candidates stay at least through camp. Non-Bills Predictions 1- Brady signs with the Titans as does Antonio Brown. 2- The Jets go big game hunting again and sign 2-3 big names but neglect key areas of depth and need. 3- The Pats sign Phillip Rivers 4- CMC is not traded but the Panthers do go with the full tear down outside of CMC. I think they would trade CMC if he got them 2 first round picks and another premium pick along with 1-2 other picks but that package just won’t materialize. 5- The Bears trade one of their second round picks and a future pick for Andy Dalton. 6- Andrew Luck stays retired for one more season (He comes back 2021.) 7- The Colts sign Yannick or Clowney. 8- The Chargers trade for Foles and draft Tua. Should be an interesting free agency period as I think there will be the usual flurry of signings but also there will be a lot of movement at the QB position.

Tweener type players are very risky esp early on since they can often get lost at positions. Although a guy being versatile isn't a bad thing. Deboo from the Niners is a good example of a player who is a quality receiver who can do other things that improves his overall contribution. That type of versatility is a good thing.

The Titans make a lot of sense on the field. Brady has a relationship with the coach, Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry are a good backfield (Dion Lewis is also a target he is familiar with) they have a solid O-line and a decent set of receivers. The Titans also have a strong defense which helps put less pressure on Brady. If they could add Brady while resigning Henry, getting a decent kicking game, and a couple of pieces to the offense they should be a very good team.

Would you give up two first round picks and other picks to get CMC? Is he 2 first round picks plus other draft capital better than Singletary? I don't think he fits the Bills as good as he is.

I don't think there is any way Hubert goes 3 over Chase Young. Tua at pick 2 is suspect but possible. I think overall the Redskins go with Chase Young.

Not surprising, seemed to run out of gas early on (Although he did close out the Titans game and had a few decent games overall) but I think his value as a locker room guy just doesn't exceed his on field liability.

Jags going on a fire sale, smart overall, they got a haul for Ramsey and should look to build towards a more fundamentally sound team.

I wouldn't hate it as Cooper is a very good WR and certainly capable of filling the WR1 role for the next 3-4 years. But I don't think he is the game breaking dynamic WR that his contract would command him to be. He disappears for a lot of games and can have a case of the drops. I think he commands a 20 million aav or close contract and while I think he fills the primary need of the team I think he isn't likely to live up to that contract.

I loved Cordy when he played, he just got hurt the last few years he was here. I hope he can right himself and find his career.

If the Panthers are doing a full scale rebuild then they have to strongly consider trading McCaffery. If the Panthers are doing a Dolphins/Browns style tear it down to the bone rebuild then you are not going to be competitive the next 2 years at least and by then McCaffery will be on his 5th year option and due for an extension. You would be wasting two years of McCaffery's prime and essentially the rest of the his rookie deal in a rebuilding wasteland. You also run the risk of destroying him as an asset since you will be running him behind a lackluster supporting cast thus risking injury and other issues a bit more than normal. I think if you can get 2 first round picks and other picks/assets for him you have to at least strongly consider if a haul of picks (a 1stand 3rdin 2020 and a 1stplus late round pick in 2021 at a minimum) is on the table. But unless you are getting a package centered around 2 first round picks and another 3rdrounder then you can’t trade him. You have a RB who even after a 2 year rebuild will still be 26 and presumably have another 3-4 high end elite years in his prime left for a team that is better suited to contend. He still can fit a timetable of a rebuild so there isn’t an onus to trade him. I am curious to see what team will put together that package for a RB even one as elite as CMC who is locked into a rookie deal with 2 more years left. Kansas City would be an interesting team as they could try and package picks 32 and 63 in 2020 and their 1stand 3rdin 2021 if they want to add another elite and affordable weapon to that already stacked offense. But given that KC’s picks won’t be as highly valued as other picks, and while I think KC would easily be willing to give up 32 and 63 along with their 1stin 2021 along with at least one other premium pick in 2021 or 2022 I don’t think they are willing to put in 3 first rounders and other picks to put a package over the top. I don’t see another team that makes sense. Las Vegas would have made sense had they not had a rookie RB with a 5thyear option ready to roll, Minnesota, NOLA and Green Bay have quality young RB’s. I could see Miami making a play if they were a bit closer as they could easily offer picks 18, 26, 110ish (their early 4thround pick) in 2020 and their 2021 3rdround pick. But I think they want to build for another year before making a move to help them take that next step. Maybe Seattle could put together a package of picks 26, 59, 64 and a 2ndand 4thin 2021. But I think Seattle would rather just spend those picks building their roster and roll with Carson. So I don’t see a trade coming together.

Even if the XFL got a few higher quality backup QB's and former big names from college who might have flamed out a bit in the NFL that would dramatically improve the quality of QB play in the XFL and improve the drawing power of the league with more casual football fans. Right now they have marginal QB's trying to hold onto a pro-career and it is dragging down the quality of the play in the league tremendously. A 20-40 million dollar investment into signing QB's to 2 year deals would be the best investment they could make in terms of improving the quality of play. They don't need "starting caliber" NFL QB's but QB's that could play even at a backup NFL level would significantly improve the quality of play in the league. Overall though I agree that the XFL surviving as a developmental league is positive for the pro-level of football. It would be great for NFL teams to be given the ability to take a late round QB and send them to the XFL for a season. I think an NFL XFL partnership/agreement would do wonders to improving the quality of football for both levels. Although I think the XFL will have a hard time attracting college eligible players I think they are best off trying to find better QB's in the short term

My take on the DE position is that they will keep Shaq or sign a second tier DE like Addison and then draft a DE in round 1 or 2 to secure the position long term. It fits more in line with their approach they took last off-season but then again maybe they go with a big splash trying to win in Josh's rookie deal? But I think they more or less try and approach the off-season similar to last off-season. They will sing one upper tier FA in the 10-12 aav range, and then 2 starting caliber free agents in the 7-9 million aav range and then 3-4 quality depth signings in the range of 3-5 million. I wouldn't hate a more prudent approach but I think you can't be too conservative since nothing is promised in the NFL.

I think it is OK to let him walk and then throw your money at another player you think is better. I trust this front office fully. They have mostly made good personnel decisions.

I think they will sign Mario Addison if they let Shaq walk. I think they are likely to keep Murphy as a 3rd DE (although I think he is far too overpaid for a more marginal player but they seem to have signed him because they like him) and then draft a DE in round 2. They will keep Johnson as a guy to help push Murphy in camp as I think they would be willing to cut Murphy if he gets outplayed by a younger player. If they resign Shaq I think they spend a pick in round 1 or 2 on the edge to set the position up longer term. Overall it is hard to say exactly how they will address the DE position but I don't think they go with one of the top tier DE's like Yannick or Clowney at 15-20 million aav. I think they are more likely to add a significant piece at DE but I think it will at best be resigning Shaq and adding a high pick vs. signing a big time free agent. Personally I would love to see them go after Yannick as their one big piece in the off-season but I think a more prudent approach is more up the team's alley.

The XFL is doing a decent job of fielding football in the spring. But their biggest issue is QB play, they have a couple of decent QB’s but they lack the QB play needed to field consistent quality football. If I were Vince McMahon and the XFL brass I would desperately try and invest some money into signing better QB’s. I think they have to consider handing out multi-million dollar contracts to QB’s to help the quality of play in their league in year 2 and 3. The quality of play has to improve if they want the league to go beyond the 3 seasons they have funded. I would seriously consider going out there and investing 20 million into finding some QB’s on 2 year deals. Backup QB’s typically make 2-5 million in the NFL, I think you could go out there and get 4-5 solid QB’s to join what they have now I think the quality of play will easily improve to the point where you could hook the hardcore football fan and then build upon them long term. I think you could attract a better backup QB on a 2 year fully guaranteed deal in a salary competitive with what they would have gotten in the NFL and actually get a chance to play (and play less games.) I also think some big name QB’s who flamed out from the NFL even if a bit gimmicky would also be a good move. Tossing some money at Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, and some other former big name college QB’s definitely would draw attention (Maybe not Tebow and Manzil specifically but someone with a big college brand) and getting some mid-level or better backup QB’s like Colt McCoy, RGIII, and Tyrod Taylor could help the overall QB play of the league get to a point where it is more than passable. I think a 20 million dollar investment in the QB position would be enough where you could punch up the quality of play at the position to the point where you could field consistent football of high quality. I would hope then if they make a good investment in the QB position and as the league grows to profitability they can then open up some more competitive contracts to other aspects of the roster like maybe 2-3 additional players making low 7 figure contracts.

Unless Diggs wants out for some reason I don't see why they would on from him. He is a true top 20 WR that makes 15 million a year and is a contract that is easy to get out of in 2021 or 2022 (6 million dead cap in 2021 and 3 million dead cap in 2022.) He is also 27 years old and has no significant injury. Why would they want to get rid of him let alone for a 2nd round pick? This was never going to happen barring something unforeseen.

The best offensive player from the drought years Jason Peters. The best fit that would help the current teams needs? I would say Lee Evans (although I think Moulds would be a better fit he was in the 98 and 99 playoffs.) On the defensive side of the ball I think the best drought of player was Pat Williams or Mario in 2014. I think the best fit for the drought Bills on the defensive side would be Gilmore opposite Tre.

I think they do need a backup to Singletary as I don't think you want to run Singletary into the ground. I think Singletary could be that 3rd and short type back but I think you don't need a power back that can handle early down situations to keep Singletary fresh for the fourth quarter.

I think that a Spiller type player would go towards the back end of the first. I think he would be seen as a "Playmaker" type that some team would want to use in a good 2 down role. McCaffery although a bit of a different prospect was drafted in the top half of the first round so there is always a chance that he could have gotten drafted a lot higher.