billsfan89

You know McD has never lost the locker room when last year at 6-6 when the article came out about McD the team completely rallied around him and went 5-0 to end the regular season and won the division. This year the chemistry and unity is still there even at 3-2 the team wasn't worried even after dropping 2 in a row. McD is a good coach he just has to get some luck in the playoffs to bounce his way.

Bills likely need some defensive pieces in the off-season BUT they also have to replace Cooper. Cooper's a big reason why the team's offensive output went from kind of good but having issues against better defenses to elite all time elite after the acquisition of Cooper. It wasn't all the trade for Amari as I think Keon and some of the younger players getting more experience with Josh helped but Amari was the piece on the outside that kept a lot of teams honest. 85% of the offense will be back for 2025. All 5 offensive line starters are back for 2025, Josh is locked in, Knox and Kincaid are back, Shakir/Samuel/Coleman are locked in and Cook/Davis are locked in. The only significant offensive pieces that will be free agents are Hollins, Ty Johnson, and Amari. If the Bills want to bring back Hollins and Johnson they probably could do so fairly cheaply. Ty Johnson is a pass catching backup RB who will be 28 and Hollins is a 32 year old WR4/5 who is a special teams ace, solid pieces but not likely to command big money in free agency. But Cooper is the piece they will need to replace, a consistent boundary WR. Doesn't have to be an elite WR like Jefferson but the Bills will need a reliable top 20ish WR on the outside to make the offense flow. I would say DT, DE, and CB will probably be 3 of the 4 main needs the team will have in the offseason but I will put WR as a major need as well. And I think given the Bills solid amount of cap space and draft capital I think they should be able to address both the need to replace Cooper and the need to add an impact pass rusher and maybe even add an ancillary piece or two.

If he wants to be more hands on with the Raiders he's gonna have to take something off his plate. Giving up the broadcasting makes sense. Honestly I think Fox has to be relived, Brady's not a bad commentator and I think with more experience he would have gotten better but I doubt he's really driving ratings and given the rather massive amount of money they are paying him getting off that money is a positive for Fox.

Dudes a pro in every sense of the word. Bills are gonna need him to make some plays too if they want to go on a deep run. Team will try to test the Bills in man coverage single high. Stack the box single high to clog the run game and force the outside WR's to beat you and they are going to need Amari to have a couple of big games to keep teams honest.

Honestly you can have a good GM in place but if the organization has a meddling owner its not going to be that successful. The Knicks for example had Donnie Walsh a truly respected basketball mind come in after a long run of poor seasons in the late 00's and after Walsh was given a few seasons to try and execute a rebuild and the results were decent until the meddling owner James Dolan ***** it up by meddling in the teams operations and Walsh was driven out.

I thought Dawkins had a chance at an All-Pro second team but there's only two slots so the margin to make an All-Pro is so narrow. Guys not getting All-Pro and Pro-Bowl nods don't really bother me. The Bills are a team whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Josh is the elite component and then there's just so many players who while they may not be "All-Pro" caliber players (as in top 2 at their position effectively) are quality top 5-8 players at their positions or at the very least better than average starters. I think the Bills have also done a quality job of finding players to fill roles that may seem small but can have a big impact like finding Ty Johnson as an elite pass catching third down back whose maybe not an elite running back but a back that can have a huge impact on some games depending on the matchup and gameplan.

Dan Orlovsky stated that the Broncos defense is weakest when their LB's are in pass coverage and when the defense is stretched at the second level. I suspect that in addition to the RB's being very involved in the passing game (similar to how they were in the Lions game) that the Bills offense is going to try and use Samuel as a gadget player to laterally stretch the field with his speed.

I do wonder if knowing the game was "meaningless" could have effected his play? Also, I think he could still be working off some rust. I'm not uber concerned about it.

It just makes it so much harder to find the right QB and offensive line if you have a lot of dysfunction in the organization. Having a meddling owner and his cronies and yes men around the football operations of a team is just not a recipe for success. Sometimes organizations can have success in spite of a bad owner due to luck or other circumstances but if you are a coach like Vrabel who has options take the place where there's less dysfunction.

The Bills have since 2017 been very good at finding quality starters all over the draft. There's not many teams that finds many quality starters year after year. After drafting Josh in 2018 they have usually been landing 2-4 players that end up being average or better starters. I will be the first to say that the 2019 and 2020 drafts while not bad were kind of average. Ed Oliver was a good pick but not great and then the other acquisitions who ended up being starters were Knox and Singletary solid role players. 2020 AJE is a decent starting DE but not spectacular, Gabe Davis had some decent years but never developed into a true WR2, Bass has had his ups and downs and the only other player of note was Dane who was a nice depth starter. But after a two year so/so stretch since 2021 I think the Bills drafting has been almost as good as any team. 2021- Groot is a top 20 DE whose only getting better, Brown has developed into a top 5-7 RT in the league and is well worth his contract, and Hamlin has turned into a better than average starter at safety and in 2022 he was solid depth filling in longer term for Hyde. 2022 the Bills found 4 quality starters in the draft. Shakir is a top 10 slot WR in the league, Cook is a top 10 RB, Benford a top 10 boundary corner in the league, and Bernard a quality linebacker with potential to be top 10 at his position. 2023- The Bills found a way to get a pair of plug and play starters on offense in Torrence (who I think is one of better guards in the league) and Kincaid (who I think is a top 10 TE) while also possibly finding another starting caliber LB in Dorian Williams. 2024- Early returns are solid. Keon's come in as a nice complementary offensive piece while Ray Davis and Dwyane Carter have plugged into productive rotational roles. Solomon, Bishop, and Grable also could turn into starters or role players as they have flashed promise. That's 3 very good drafts from 2021-2023 and a promising 2024. Compare that to most other teams in the league and you will see the Bills producing among the best results in the league. I get that the Bills haven't drafted a "All-Pro" star in that time period they have drafted many players in the top 10 at their position.

The Rams ***** them picks mentality was honestly a complete outlier and I don't think it is a method that works most of the time. Look at the Dolphins, they traded for all these big names including trading first round picks for Hill and Chubb and it resulted in a very narrow window to even win a division that didn't even work. I asked Chat GPT to give me a list of a non-QB player being traded for at least 1 first round pick since 2000. I ranked them into bust, boom or somewhere in the middle. Seems like the results shed light that it's a 50/50 proposition. Here are some examples of it not working since 2000. These are qualified as players who just didn't even come close to justifying the production needed to make trading a first worth it. Percy Harvin trade to Seattle Joey Galloway to Dallas (happened in 2000) Jamal Adams to Seattle Roy Williams to Dallas Revis to the Bucs Chubb to the Dolphins Here are some other examples where it maybe wasn't a complete bust but the results weren't great either. These ones are somewhere in-between as I think you could say getting 1-2 good years out of a player might be worth it esp if you turn around and trade the player for some sort of return. Amari Cooper to Dallas (two 1k seasons before Cooper was traded for a lot less, not bad but not what you want to get when you make a trade like that) Khalil Mack to Chicago (had a fantastic 2018 but his next 3 seasons were not as great only had one double digit sack season) Devante Adams to the Raiders (had a fantastic 2022 and a good but not great 2023 but was traded for a lesser pick due to organizational dysfunction) Ricky Williams to the Dolphins (had two very good years with the Fins then imploded due to off the field issues and then put in a third good season way down the line) Brandin Cooks to the Rams (traded twice for a first, this time he had one good year with the Rams before a regression his second year and being traded for a discount). Keyshawn Johnson to the Bucs (Had a couple of good seasons before flaming out this one may be argued that it was a hit) Examples where it worked well for the team trading the picks Stefon Diggs (He was great here for 3 seasons and even good to start 2023 before it imploded, return on the trade to get him while a discount wasn't bad) Laremy Tunsil (He has been a stud tackle for many seasons despite the high cost he came with he's delivered on his end) Jalen Ramsey to the Rams (He's always rated highly, personally I don't think he's that good but I will be charitable and say this worked out) Tyreke Hill to the Dolphins (Back to back elite seasons a down year this year but he's still a good player) Brandin Cooks to the Pats (rented him for one season where he put up 1k yards and then traded him for a first to the Rams) Orlando Brown Jr to the Chiefs (rented him for two seasons where he was strongly productive before he left in free agency) The teams that made the trade went on to win the Super Bowl three times (Bucs with Johnson, Rams with Ramsey, and Chiefs with Brown) no other team won a Super Bowl with a non-QB player traded for a first since 2000. The Rams and Pats both lost a Super Bowl with Cooks as a key contributor. So it's not a guarantee to lead to contention. TLDR: Seems like it is a 50/50 proposition to make such a big trade. I understand the feeling of urgency to win with Josh sooner rather than later. But sometimes I think you can also make foolish moves that cost you a chance to contend bankrupting picks and your cap by making such trades. Given how good the Bills are at drafting esp in recent drafts I would rather the team build through the draft and supplement with cheaper mercenaries

Rare year where all teams have their own first round pick at the end of the regular season/start of the off-season. The last time that happened was 2013.

Don't get me wrong there is a compelling argument that the Bills getting a pass rusher like Myles Garrett at a tremendous cost is well worth it. I just don't like trading for a 30 year old non-QB player at a high cost on a high contract. I don't think those types of moves usually end up working out especially on a team that is paying a QB a massive contract. You can't say because other 1st and 2nd round picks aren't as good as Garrett that it justifies losing future capital. The past picks are sunk costs as is the money given to Von. The question is, is Garrett at age 30 worth giving up 4-5 draft picks plus taking on his massive contract. There's a very compelling argument that he's worth it. I am not so sure that he is. The difference in paying Groot 22ish million a season and taking on Garrett at 30 million is that you also keep your draft capital and Groot is younger and slightly cheaper as well. I also think rewarding the players in the locker room is a secondary positive but not a major factor. I guess it comes down to the fact that I see so many trades where big star players (who are younger than 30) get traded for a boat load of draft picks it seems to work out more for the team acquiring the draft picks than the team trading for the star player.

If Kraft is truly willing to hand over control of the organization to a coach then it isn't a bad job. You have a young QB in place, you have the number 4 pick and a decent amount of draft capital overall while also being in a good position cap space wise. The question is will Kraft actually be hands off and let a regime come in and have 3 years to fully execute a rebuild properly? If Kraft hands the keys over to a regime it's not a bad job but if you are dealing with a meddling owner it is not an appealing job at all.

I am not saying that great teams don't have elite non-QB players, but rather that you don't always need 10 elite players to win. KC has 2-3 really good defensive players but it's not a star studded roster on defense. On offense Kelce hasn't been a star player for a couple of years and I don't see much elite talent outside of Mankins and Humphries on the offensive line. They just mainly have a lot of solid starting caliber players contributing their roles and executing a system around an electric QB. I think KC stopped having completely stacked star laden rosters after they traded away Tyreke Hill and started paying Mahomes on a big contract. I also am not so sure a "war daddy" pass rusher whose turning 30 on a massive contract and will cost a ton of valuable draft capital is the missing piece either. As good as Garrett is I think the Bills needs on defense won't fully be solved by adding Garrett. Don't get me wrong Garrett would tremendously help the team but he wouldn't be a panacea either. I also disagree that finding "good" but not elite players like Groot, Shakir, Bernard, and Cook are players you can rather easily "find". I do agree that they are certainly easier to find than an elite talent like Garrett but I also don't think those types of players don't hold very good value either. I also think the value of finding an elite talent in the draft is so much greater than trading a lot of draft capital for an elite talent so having more picks means a better chance to find those elite players at the beginning of their career. In the end my philosophy comes down to is Garrett at a cost of a lot of draft and cap capital going to be that last big piece that puts the team over the top? I don't think he will be and I think the long term damage that such a move could yield is not worth the risk.

Generally I agree, it's a nice side effect of the game to have hurt the Pats draft slot but in the end the Pats fortunes are gonna rest largely on how good or bad Drake Maye and their next coaching staff is so it is not as though the Bills did all that much damage.

I think the Jets will only drop 1 spot if they win which isn't too bad. Going from the 5/6 slot to 7/8 while bad isn't tragic. Going from 1 to 4 is a big drop relatively speaking.

Broncos just blowing out KC 24-0 at the half kind of took the wind out of the sails of the Fins and the Jets looked locked in to play spoiler.

I think Pats fans were hoping to have the number 1 pick and sell it off to the highest bidder to get picks. The Bears got a haul for the Bryce Young pick adding a 2nd rounder and DJ Moore while also adding a future 1st and 2nd rounders to their back pockets. Pick 4 is still gonna land them a premium prospect but not having pick 1 is a kick in the pants for them. I honestly think the Bills could have won had they stuck with Mitch.

I think the difference in the way I look at NFL roster is that unlike the other big 4 sports (outside of QB) the need for star players is not as dramatic. The NFL is almost the ultimate "Quantity over Quality" league in that it's almost more about having no weaknesses and some depth as opposed to having 3-4 "star" players on each side of the ball. I look at KC the gold standard currently and the Brady era Pats the old gold standard and I often saw/see those teams being more so about consistently finding "starting caliber" players in the draft and developing a solid overall team around an elite QB. The Pats from the 2001-2006 run had a few elite defensive players but were mostly a bunch of role players and solid starters sprinkled in around 3-5 elite to very good defensive players (Seymour, Ty Law, and Bruschi types) and an offense that was Tom Brady and decent but not spectacular supporting cast. I think that the Bills despite clearing out a lot of veterans and trading away Diggs have assembled a very good roster around Josh and they have a chance to build a better team once the dead cap clears and they have a nice complement of draft picks. The Bills have a top 5 offensive line in the league around Josh, a top 5-7 RB core, a top 5 TE combination, and a better than average WR group now that they acquired Cooper. The Bills defensively are a better than average unit who while susceptible to some lapses aren't a bad unit at all. I get the feeling to add those 1-2 big pieces to get the team "over the top" but that's usually not the most prudent way to build the roster. Draft and develop add some free agency pieces as needed. Trading away a haul of picks for a 30 year old pass rusher on a massive contract is just not seeming like a fantastic move to me as injuries to that one player can derail the resources that could have produced 2-3 starters and 2-3 depth pieces. Chase Young is a free agent and given that he's not really lived up to his draft status and been banged up the Bills could probably add him for sub 10 million. Really reminding me of the Clowney career trajectory where he gets good but not massive 1 year deals for teams looking to patch the edge for a season but no team ever wanting to commit fully.

"Pro Bowler" is arbitrary and a rather bad metric to determine the quality of a team around Josh Allen. Benford didn't make the Pro-Bowl but he's still a dam good player. I would rather the team have more shots to find cheap good starting caliber players around Josh and on defense than sinking in a lot of picks and cap space that could be used to resign younger developing draft picks like Groot, Shakir, Cook, Benford, and Bernard. I get that the Bills want to "win now" but sometimes making an aggressive move has bad unintended consequences.

30 for a defensive linemen is at the end rage of their prime years as they tend to "fall off" around age 32-34. Von was still very good in 2022 he was on pace for 12.5 sacks that year despite only playing 55% of the teams defensive snaps but he got hurt and that's hurt his production never recovered fully (I would say that while Von was abysmal in 2023 he's been a decent player in 2024 still far from what Von was in 2022). The difference would be that while you get a significantly younger player in Garrett you are also giving up draft capital and cap space for a player whose still on the older range of things. So while there is still a big chasm between 30 and 33 it is still a bit risky to invest the draft and cap capital into an older player like that. Also given how good the Bills have been at drafting I would rather McBeane work the draft more and try and find a few upper mid-level talents like they did with Connor McGovern to plug some holes.

Brown after a promising rookie season in 2021 was one of the worst RT's in the league in 2022. How far he's come that he's a beloved part of the team and everyone is thinking this massive extension he signed in 2024 is suddenly a bargain.

What would it take? Below is my estimation. I think this would accompany Garrett restructuring his contract and the Browns possibly taking some money on given the hefty return. Bills get Myles Garrett 2025 5th round pick 2026 6th round pick Browns get Bills 2025 1st round pick Bears 2025 4th round pick Bills 2026 2nd round pick Bills 2025 6th round pick Bills 2026 5th round pick I think this amounts to quite a good haul for the Browns who get a late 1st, a early 4th, and a 2nd in 2026 for a soon to be 30 year old pass rusher plus a favorable pick swap in 2026 on late round picks. The Bills get their man and keep both their 2nd round picks in 2025 and get back a 5th in 2025 to ease the loss of picks. There's also a favorable 5th for a 6th swap going the Browns way in 2026. For me I think given how good the past few draft classes have looked very good (2022 and 2023 look great while the early returns on 2024 are solid) I would rather the Bills not plunge a lot of draft resources and cap space into a 30 year old player.

While I think Vrabel is actually a solid choice for the Jets but even if they manage to get a good coach in there I just don't think they will turn it around unless the owner stops meddling in the teams operations. Woody Johnson has turned into the 2000's and early 2010's James Dolan and the Jets are just as dysfunctional as the Knicks were.