Magox

During the College football season before the 2017 draft the QB that I liked the most was Trubisky, that was before there was even talk of him. He was a first year starter for Carolina and no one really knew anything about him. I am a huge Carolina fan so I watched all the games and I thought his accuracy, mobility and competitiveness was going to translate well into the NFL. That was my guy. I was never really big on Deshaun Watson, I just didn't think he had the vision to see the entire field and their coaches have done a superb job in simplifying the offense and field of vision and he has exceeded any expectation that I have ever had for him. Mahomes, I knew very little about and months before the draft I began seeing all his film, the cannon arm and the ability to make these tremendous throws and by about 2 months before the draft, he was the guy that I liked the most. I really got on the Mahomes bandwagon and I remember here on TBD that it was a polarizing topic because there were a few guys that really liked him me being one of them and then a lot of people who thought his footwork and rawness was too risky for him to be a first round choice. I was hoping that the Bills would select him. I completely understand why they didn't. McD was not going to trust Whaley's evaluation on QB's as his track record didn't warrant it and McD being a coach and not a GM quality talent evaluator was going to select what he felt most comfortable with, someone from defense a DB. He got the DB that he wanted, the sort of player that he could build his defense around and pick up an additional first rounder which helped land Allen. Obviously, hindsight says that Mahomes looks as if that should have been the pick but if Allen pans out, then the decision ultimately will work out.

It's not a love affair it's familiarity. Beane/McD/Morgan know a lot of people in that organization and when there is that familiarity they would rather do these joint practices with those they know and processes they are familiar with. It makes sense.

Very strong likelihood that Lawson and McCoy arent here for 2020. That frees up more room.

Let me sum this up really quickly. Dareus' had two dominant years, 2013 and 2014. Signed a huge deal in 2015 and never had a dominant year ever since he got paid. Has played decent level of run clogging football slightly more on than off since his last dominant year in 2014. He is one suspension away from being locked away from the NFL for a long time. Dareus was signed at $16M a year, Star at $10M a year. Dareus is the better player even though he isn't who he used to be, but he's not that much better than Star. Not to mention that Beane/McD can count on Star not being late for practices, failing drug tests or getting suspended for some other stupid excuse. In other words, they can depend on him, and they know that he'll clog running lanes. Bottom line, they were willing to pay $10M a year for a non spectacular run clogger, even though I do believe he's probably only worth around $7M a year but they were not willing to continue paying $16m a year for a player that could do a little more than Star but someone that they couldn't rely on who was only one suspension away from being potentially out of the league.

Then I'm glad to hear that you are giving McD credit for coaching up the team that no one thought could come close to having a winning record to the playoffs back in 2017 and that it was mainly due to their efforts and not luck.

Oh, it has.

You are not understanding what I'm saying. It's not a matter of if there had been any luck involved. It's that there is a segment of TBD that does not want to give hardly any credit to McD for leading that depleted team that no one thought they had a shot to get into the playoffs, get into the playoffs. And that when anyone brings up the fact that they did, their typical answer is that they got lucky. Luck doesn't earn you 9 victories. It's a feat that from a rational perspective should be recognized and fortunately it is from most of the fan base, but it's always the 10% that are the loudest.

I don't know how you define negative but implying that the Bills got into the playoffs by virtue of luck minimizes their 9 victories. My dad always used to tell me that it's a funny thing that the usually the good are the luckiest ones. It's an idiom that basically says that often times in order to capitalize on some luck you have to put yourself in a position to be lucky. If the Bills had the sort of season that everyone thought they'd have or won one less game, doesn't matter what Cincinnati would have done it wouldn't have mattered to them. So for all those that characterize or attempt to minimize the Bills finally getting into the playoffs after nearly 2 decades with a seriously depleted team when no one gave them a shot is a tremendous feat that is lost upon the detractors.

It was spun into as if it was mainly attributed to luck or that it was a fluke due to primarily the Bengals/Ravens game. As if the 9 victories that the Bills did to get there was also a fluke. No one in their right mind thought the Bills were going to achieve that, specially with some of the moves they made to slash talent/salary cap. It's a feat that is too conveniently ignored or dismissed by the detractors/skeptics. It's an important and significant accomplishment that is a testimony to McD's ability to connect and coach up his players. His game day play calling still needs work but far too often fans believe equate being a good coach with play calling, while that is a very important factor, what is equally if not more important is the preparation and practice that occurs before game day.

The past 19 years bears no significance or relevance in what Todays Bill's are doing. For anyone that is being honest with themselves or have the mental capacity to differentiate that unmistakable distinction, understands that to fairly gauge their performance has absolutely nothing to do with the previous 17 years. New regime has been put in place for not even 2 full completed seasons and they have tangible accomplishments to show for. For some odd reason (it really isnt odd), some fans are having a tough time with the concept that new management often times means new processes, new personnel and in layman's terms just a generally new way of doing things. Beane/McD clearly made a conscience decision to evaluate just about every facet of this organization ranging from upper player personnel, scouting, medical personnel to the players. Beane/McD also made it a point to to build this team with the sort of players that fit their DNA profile and players they believe fit their system schemes. No organization is going to make the most fruitful decisions 100% of the time but the best ones usually make the consequential ones count. Whaley struck out on two huge ones, EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins, two of the worst GM moves in recent memory along with his cringeworthy press conferences led to his demise. Beane in his first draft with the Bills landed Allen. He shrewdly made moves to position himself to have the firepower to go after him while dumping players that didnt live up to their expectations and were nowhere near worth what some other teams were willing to pay for and attain more value than many thought they could fetch. When I read these comments that "Watkins is better than anything we have now", I think to myself what an incredibly myopic take. Never mind the fact that Watkins hasnt put up good numbers in years or that his inability to avoid injury still plagues him to this day, but that often parroted statement is not the consideration that good GM's make. The questions they ask are " Is he worth $17m a year?" "At $17m a year do I believe he will stay healthy enough to be on the field often to make a difference on this team?", "At $17m a year, is he the kind of player that fits the DNA profile that we are looking for?" And "At $17m a year does he have the track record to justify this cost?" The Rams had him for one year, decided to give up their 2nd rounder to only decide to not re-sign him to go on to choose Cooks instead. Let that digest and marinate in some of you guys heads for a bit. Beane may end up striking out on Allen and other player personnel decisions. But no one can rationally make the case that they arent following through with their plans despite some of the early teeth gnashing from some quarters of the peanut gallery regarding some of their moves. They dont care what they think, they care with executing their vision. They purposely cleared up the cap space to make the moves they have. And anyone who says that they neglected the offense and are feebly attempting to make the case that somehow the Bills were fielding what the Bills believed to be a finished product are either not being honest or truth be told behaving like nincompoops. The overhaul of this team has been drastic and that's the way they decided to go after their evaluations. This is the first year that they truly in my estimations are fielding a team that can at least compete for the playoffs. And the year after, the team they will build will be even noticeably better than this ones. I bet you that internally they didnt anticipate making the playoffs the first two years, not that they would ever say that aloud. That this year they believe they will be competing and believing they have a good shot at the playoffs and the following year a deep run into the playoffs. This year will say alot and personally I think they will be somewhere in the 8-8 to 11-5 range.

Chris Brown is not going to make any proclamations without the seal of approval of the Bill's. If he says it, its happening. With that said, I find the statement odd and to be honest counterproductive. Dawkins shouldn't be handed anything, he regressed and the fear of losing his starting position should remain as a motivator.

Dont bother, its like talking to a brick wall.

I agree. That the worth of Watkins to this or any other team has never even come close to whiffing the cost incurred to attain him. That two 1st round draft choices specially in a year so rich with WR's was indeed an absolutely atrocious decision considering his injuries, lack of consistent production, what he meant to the team and his general attitude which by many accounts he was not beloved by his teammates. And even afterwards with 2 really good passing teams no matter how you slice it and dice it his production and value to the team hasnt lived up to the value of the contract he received. He has been a disappointment relative to what he was supposed to have been.

At 6-10 no one would be happy but unless there was a player mutiny or fallout between ownership and McD, I wouldn't say "safe" would be their job status but very likely McD would be back for the following year much to the chagrin of fans. I believe this regime is on very sound footing, as they should be.

He was never a diva or me first or malcontent for that matter. He was just an ultra passionate, super competitive and wore his emotions on his sleeve. I think people would see his scowls or trash talking and automatically lumped him in with other players but he was never one of those kinda guys.

I wasn't enamored with him either. I had Trubisky as my #1 early on up until about a month before the draft and sort of just fell in love with Mahomes potential. Trubisky I liked very very early on before anyone was talking about him because I'm a Carolina fan and every time I saw him play, he showed great mobility, good poise, accuracy and a decent arm. Watson I thought would have problems processing the field. Even though he had an impressive rookie campaign the coaches did a great job with reducing the field of vision for him and he performed a lot better than I had expected. I still believe that when it is all said and done, the draft board that I had will be correct that Mahomes will have the best career out of the three, followed by Trubisky and then Watson.

I agree that Whaley didn't make the decisions but if McD were going to draft a QB, then he would have relied on Whaley and the scouting team Whaley had formed to make that decision. Semantics. And Whaley's weakness wasn't solely that he "sucked at public speaking". He had quite a few deficiencies. Most importantly he couldn't sell his vision to the Pegula's. That's the first thing any successful manager in anything has to be able to do, sell your vision to those that will allow you to follow through with your plans. That was his first flaw. Secondly, even though he had a good eye for talent in certain areas, he didn't know how to properly value that talent. Talent has a monetary value and when you take into consideration that it has to be within a finite construct you have to know how to manage that money. He didn't. Plus he failed miserably with his selection of Watkins. Gave up a first rounder to get him, that was one of the worst decisions he made. Then he screwed up again with another first rounder with Manuel. Think about that, that is 3 wasted first rounders. If you are a new GM and you mess up with one first rounder you are going to be on thin ice. With 2 you are almost certainly gone but with 3???? Whaley should be part of an NFL FO just not the GM.

McD and Beane came from the same organization and they both have similar views what their type of players look like. It is not surprising that when you have 2 high level FO's who have similar views what players they like should look like that you are going to have some intersect specially considering there are 30+ pre draft visits.

I know it makes for fun conspiratorial conversation but does anyone actually believe that Beane shared what the Carolina Panthers draft board or research that would belong to the Panthers on over to their competition (Bills)? Don't answer that because I know some of you do. It's ridiculous! The idea that Beane who is a consummate professional would share meaningful and substantive information that was derived from the Panthers on over to another team would be highly unethical. I don't believe for one second that McD would have even had it in him to ask him to do such a thing. The farthest extent that it would have gone would be "What do you think of that player?" If you are going to invest your precious 1st round draft choice you aren't going to make that decision off of what someone thinks, there are going to be binders and reams of tape on that player with their own evaluators notes and numerous discussions and back and forths with the GM that is pushing for that player before they pull the trigger. Once again, this is just silly talk.

That is some observation there. "they could have had". These retrospective arguments are vapid. We could play this game with every single NFL organization in every single draft. Should have Would have Could have. Beane wasn't in charge and McD wasn't going to let Whaley who was a lame duck GM make that decision, specially after his last QB he drafted flamed out.

They weren't going to draft a QB with their 1st round draft choice with a lame duck GM who had previously struck out on his previous 1st round selected QB. The second point that I'd like to make with this silly talk of rebuild vs retool. These are terms that fans and NFL pundits use. They don't go into it thinking "I'm in charge now, and I'm going to get rid of everyone just so that I can call it a rebuild and buy myself some breathing space and time to build a team the way I see fit". They analyze every single player on the team and they look at a number of considerations to determine whether or not they are a fit for what they are trying to do. They look at whether or not they believe them to be a scheme fit, if they get injured often, intangibles such as leadership and whether they are a "process" type of guy, their measurables, past and recent production, if they believe they could replace what that player could deliver at a lower or comparable cost, their valuation of that players position, if they are still developing and if they are on the up or downswing of their careers, need for that particular position, if they believe they want to be a Bill and a whole host of considerations. Then once they look at all those considerations they measure that along side of their cap hit and make a determination if that player is a fit for the type of team they want to build. Whether you call it a "retool" or a "rebuild" the same considerations are still there for their final determination. They look at the player, the cap hit and if both of those fit into what they are trying to do as an organization they make the determination. That's it. For me it was clear, they didn't like the makeup of the team that they inherited. That's not to say they didn't believe there was some quality talent that they decided to part ways with just that when all things were considered, they chose to go with a different route. Just like any FO, sometimes you strike out on some positions. But the idea that they just scrapped players just so that they could justify what fans and pundits call a "rebuild" is patently absurd. That's just not how decisions are made. They view each player evaluation and decision on it's own merits, not through the lens of making player personnel decisions just for the purpose of fitting into a larger "rebuild" strategy.

He is who he is. Extremely talented, self-centered who will get his stats but isnt a team first guy.

That's not to be understated. Everyone that knows him says that he is extremely competitive. Hes pretty good at just about everything he does.

Arguably drafting a franchise QB is the most tangibly seen and most consequential move a FO can make. It can hide a number of deficiencies that an organization make and help carry mediocre organizations to perennial playoff teams similar to Colts and Packers organizations over the past 20 years. Without Manning and Luck or Favre and Rodgers those organizations aren't even average. That's not to minimize them completely because at the end of the day they were able to get 2 back-to-back franchise QBs and there is something to be said from that. But if they had some of the other intangibles that other good FO teams did such as some of the things I had listed, Manning, Luck, Rodgers and Favre who between them have won countless league MVP titles, All Pro achievements and who out of them you can easily say 3 of them are top 10 all-time QBs should have won more than 3 NFL championships out of close to 50 NFL combined seasons between them. Why? Because they didnt have the makeup to be more consistently the best team in the league. The "regime that hasn't fallen entirely out of favor yet" talk and is the proverbial " is too easily tossed out when you have an organization that has been miserable for over 2 decades. That opinion is born from the past sins of the previous organizations. Having a clear concise vision and acting on it is in my view essential. Not going after splash players and being judicious yet aggressive with flexibility in the way you structure the contracts is another area to be optimistic about. Having an organization that can draft good defensive players and coach them up is also important. It's not that each one of these things on their own is what turns an organization around aside from drafting a franchise QB, but the combination of them is why optimism abounds.

It's not just that the Bill's have a F.O that comes across as competent and a clear-eyed plan that is giving many Bills fans optimism there are a number of other factors as well. 1) Despite getting rid of some highly talented but underperforming expensive players that were highly controversial moves with segments of the fanbase the team still managed to make the playoffs which was something that hadn't been achieved in nearly 2 decades. That's not to be understated. 2) Piggybacking off of reason #1, the fact that they were willing to make the highly controversial moves that most likely weren't a positive for ticket and Bill's related sales to free up cap space to build their team "Their way" from my perspective speaks volumes. That a) They didnt look to anyone else including ownership for input on making such a move and b) They are in it to win games they way they see fit not how their fanbase does. 3) Landing Josh Allen. There is a better than 50/50 chance that he is a legitimate franchise QB. All the moves Beane made had a clear goal in mind and that was to get his franchise QB. From most accounts Josh Allen was their guy and they did what it took to get him. For being his first year in control of the draft for the Bills that would be a pretty damn good feat. This is certainly a big part of the optimism. 4) It appears that this regime knows how to build a defense. They coach up DB's which is arguably the most critical part of today's NFL defenses. 5) The Bills have drafted some pretty good defenders. Milano, Edmunds, Oliver and White are very likely to be key foundational pieces of this defense for years to come and are all potentially future probowlers. 6) The manner that the FO has constructed their contracts. Many of the contracts with the free agents are structured in a manner to where if the player underperforms or isnt a fit, they can release that player early on without incurring that much dead cap space. 7) The FO recognized that the offensive line was a problem and addressed it in a forceful manner both through the draft and FA this year. 8 )There is still plenty of cap space for 2020 to continue improving the team. Cap space = Potential productive capital on the playing field. 9) The team they are building is comprised by a bunch of hard-working guys that want to be here which is appreciated and inline with the city's personality. 10) This is more abstract in nature but the look and feel of competence with a clear commanding vision is something that this FO oozes. And that feeling that they convey translates to optimism among the fanbase.