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Magox

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Everything posted by Magox

  1. yup, march april is usually when refinery utilization rates drop to their lowest levels of the year and also investors usually start buying futures in anticipation of the summer driving season. Typically in a normal year, gasoline futures hit peaks right before and the beginning of the summer and towards the end of the summer, depending on actual demand vs. expectations. Of course, it is hurricane season and those disruptions or fear of it impacts prices.
  2. It was an idiotic economic move, but you have to understand who his donating constituents are, he was the great _____ hope of the progressive movement, they thought he was going to fulfill their entire agenda, and when he pushed through things that for most rational centrist thinking people were considered too far to the left then he pissed off many people, but of course there are the loons from the left that believe he hasnt gone far enough *cough cough* (lybob), so he HAS to throw these monkeys a banana once in a while or support will drop for him heading into the elections.
  3. Lybob, Mother Jones and "real" classwarfare.... ok, thats all I needed to know
  4. Blaming Obama for the high gasoline prices is about as idiotic as blaming Bush for the collapse of the economy. It's a straw man's argument. Obama's decision on the moratorium may have impacted short-term prices by a $2-4 a barrel and possibly a little more going out further than 3 years from now. That's it!!
  5. No, Dave is an idiot. In regards to Roubini, I respect him very much, I use his some of his analysis for what I do and I have quoted him on many occassions. Having said that, he has been wrong on many instances over the past year, that is what happens when you get a perma bull and perma bear. They are always looking for either the bull or bear case with little regards to the other side of the argument. Which is why the stock cheerleaders are always looking for the upside and the perma bears such as roubini always looking for the downfall.
  6. Roubini at least doesn't use the typical metrics that many of the more conventional economists and stock cheerleaders use, having said that, he's a perma bear that has been wrong on more than a few occassions over the past year and a half. But I do enjoy hearing his analysis.
  7. Cushing oil supplies plays a very little role in prices, the main driver of oil is demand, presently it's fear of supply disruptions thats driving prices higher.
  8. Oil was one of my favorite commodities that I traded and to see it drop down to $94-95 wouldnt be surprising whatsoever. Having said that, I do believe that a new floor has been put into place for oil, this situation in the middleeast doesnt appear that it will be abating any time soon, and their will continue to be a risk premium on the price of crude (as their should be) until this gets resolved or appears to be. The Cushing supplies is for WTI crude, not Brent and brent crude is the more important oil considering that is what is used more so than any other oil. So I dont pay too much attention to Cushing Oil supplies and those investors that do, GET PUNISHED. In regards to the rolloever, yeah there is probably some of that going on, but this movement is more based on fear of disruption and some short covering, i've noticed that volumes are extremely low, which makes sense considering the price.
  9. I was watching Laurence Meyer, ex federal reserve voting member this morning on CNBC, and this guy and other economic academics including steve liesmann are absolutely battschitt blind. They keep saying over and over that there is no inflation and that oil has very little impact on their inflation expectations, and if that if oil prices did filter into the economy that it would slow it down and therefore woule be considered disinflationary due to its slowing effect on the economy. huh?? What the hell?? No schitt, that is what inflation does, it slows down economies. I also keep hearing that these rising oil prices shouldnt effect the economy that much from many of the stock cheerleaders. Don't get me wrong, I'm 75% invested myself, but I'm scaling back as we speak, because soon, there will be no more QE and the sugar high will end, then we'll be left with $100+ Oil with fiscal and monetary stimulus fading and we'll see whether or not corporations pass down the costs to the consumers or eat it themselves. My guess is a mixture of the two. I just get bent all out of shape hearing these academics who are only able to see through their narrow metrics that are unable to see the effects of future fiscal debt concerns, loose monetary policy implications and rising oil prices. One after another seem to dismiss these threats, they just say something along the lines of "well yeah, if it rises too much then it will have an effect, but we don't foresee any real effects in our models". These are the same guys that have failed models that missed the last downturn. They are either Federal reserve academic gob swallowers or equity cheerleaders. Santelli is the voice of reason on that floor, he gets it.
  10. Some of the responses in thread are quite ummmmm..... retarded
  11. I do like Gross, doesnt mean I agree with everything that he says, and I did preface the comment with "overall success". Also did you catch the OECD report on commodity prices and what they attribute it to? They happen to believe its mainly due to actual physical demand and very little with monetary policy. I know you are in the camp of "speculation", I believe its a good balance between the two, in which I'm sure I'm right. People point to the Cushing oil supplies as "proof" that it is speculation, in which of course they have no clue in what they are talking about because CUshing oil supplies is a regional issue, not a global one. We are in a perfect storm of conditions for future high inflation (not by "economists" metrics" but by every day companies and lower to middle class people), we have strong global growth which is undoubtedly putting pressure on commodity supplies, loose monetary policy causing people and investors to exchange dollars for tangible goods and imminent future oil supply disruptions. Put all this together with slow growth in the developed world with overburdened fiscal budgets, you have a nasty recipe for stagflation, which is something I talked about here years ago.
  12. The drop in unemployment has very very little to do with job growth, but more so with people continuing to drop out of the work force, which I find to be a bit puzzling. But none the less that is what the drop in the unemployment rate can be attributed to, which in my view is much more worrisome than having more people enter the work force with a higher unemployment rate, because this indicates that one or more of a couple things are happening which is some people have been out of work so long that they are either resigned to the fact of not getting a job and content with just getting by due to gov. dependency unemployment checks or that job skill erosion is truly setting in and there simply arent jobs for these people to find or willing to accept. My guess is there is a mixture of the two. Having said all that, I still expect job growth to be over 250K jobs a month very soon.
  13. In all honesty, I dont see how any credible economist can gauge QE's overall success for at least another 2-3 years. The risks of QE don't pose short-term risks but more so its after effects. Which would be inflation risks (that we are beginning to see) and debt monetization dependency that places the US dollar in more danger of a possible collapse or serious devaluation.
  14. I'm a huge Tarheel fan and I saw just about all those games from that year. The games where he didnt get sacks he got plenty of pressures and was double teamed most of the game and the game against BC was against arguably this years top LT prospect and they tried to have him block him one on one and he was schooled by Quinn. The game film against BC is the best gauge you could have regarding his upside.
  15. After Bush left and Palin's short and unsuccessful bid at VP, there really wasn't much for the liberal movement to be excited about, hence the drop of progressive fervor throughout the country. The reality folks is this board is just a microcosmic reflection of that drop in enthusiasm, hence all the racebaiting tactics from the douchebags from the left, when all else fails, call someone a racist or bigot. Good luck losers
  16. It's simple really, They are for the most part staying out of it because it is a losing situation, the public is against the Unions in this instance. We are going to be entering an election year, and Obama needs the independents and most independents side with Walker on this one.
  17. I know, and I feel awful about it. I wanted to but I had lots of things going on.
  18. It's the first thing that came to mind, plus deep down, I believe I was waiting for the opporunity to say that.
  19. I've been talking about QUinn for months now, and he has got all the tools to be a top pass rusher in this league. Btw, he has a great inside move, so he's not just a speed rusher. WHen the combine comes, he won't run a 4.38, probably will be closer to mid 4.5's which would still be a phenomenal time for some one of his size. He's strong, agile, fast and productive, what's there not to like other than him missing football last year? Btw, his teammate Bruce Carter. Will probably be an even better pro who is stronger and faster than Quinn. Not a passrusher, but just a good overall LB.
  20. what kind of a dumazz question is that? Does self-accountability ever factor in to your moronic little pathetic world? I've answered your questions before in great detail, but you lack the ability to comprehend anything that is provided for you. So I'm done explaining things to you dumazz.
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