The problem with your analysis is that the probability of picking a franchise QB after the top of the first round and then into later rounds drops precipitously. It is amazing that the single most important position in the league is such a crap shoot. I’ve long said that if the league truly wants to be competitive that every team should have to carry a developmental QB on its roster. You could then make it even more interesting if you had them become FA’s at the three year point. I suppose you could say that this is no different than backup QB’s but those guys get buried and don’t seem to move much.