Game week thread - Bills at Patriots*

[eball]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

They don’t have to lose 2 of their last 3.

 

Bills have to win out, and Pats need to lose against either Jets OR Miami.

 

 

 

I think this is wrong.  If the Pats*** beat Baltimore they would still own the tiebreaker over the Bills even if they lose to the Jets or Fish.

 

Edit:  here are the tiebreakers, with my comments should the Pats*** and Bills both finish 13-4 and the Pats*** lose to either NYJ or MIA:

 

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

 

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs) -- this would be even

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. -- this would be even

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. -- Pats*** win this tiebreaker, 10-2 vs. 11-3

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Strength of victory in all games.

Strength of schedule in all games

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

Best net points in common games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss

 

 

Edited 58 minutes ago by eball

[eSJayDee]

4 hours ago, eball said:

For the Bills to win the East they must win out and the Pats*** must lose two of their other three games. The tiebreakers are not in our favor so we need a better record straight up. 
 

It’s doable though…after us they face a desperate Ravens team, followed by Jets and Miami (who might still be in the hunt for a WC). 
 

NE has faced essentially no adversity this season, but the pressure level is about to ratchet up to 11 real quick. 
 

No.  There are other avenues other than that.  If we win out, I believe they merely need to lose to either the Jets or Phins.

[Billsfanatic8989]

53 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

Most years in most divisions the difference between first place and second place is only a game or two, sometimes coming down to the final weekend of the regular season. What changes when the Patriots win the division is that they will face three games against teams that finished first in their own divisions. In theory those three opponents are stronger than the teams that a second place finisher would face.

 

It is not the end of the world, but it also should not be ignored. This is exactly why the NFL designs schedules the way it does, to create more parity and to reward or challenge teams based on their previous year’s performance.

 

This week’s game is going to be a great matchup and either team can win. But if we are being honest, if the Bills play a clean, mistake free game and if Josh Allen plays like he did against the Bengals, the Bills should win. That is why Vegas has the Bills favored even on the road in the Patriots stadium.

I think the Bills will win. 34-28. 

 

But, I don't think vegas intent/thinking is that the Bills will win. They are trying to get people to bet on NE. A few years ago, vegas made SF three points favorites over KC in the SB. Nobody in their right mind though SF had any business being favored to in the game. It was Vegas trying to get bets in on KC. 

 

This is a 50/50 game. There really is not much separating these teams. 

[Ghost_002!]

1 hour ago, Tanoros said:

Most years in most divisions the difference between first place and second place is only a game or two, sometimes coming down to the final weekend of the regular season. What changes when the Patriots win the division is that they will face three games against teams that finished first in their own divisions. In theory those three opponents are stronger than the teams that a second place finisher would face.

 

It is not the end of the world, but it also should not be ignored. This is exactly why the NFL designs schedules the way it does, to create more parity and to reward or challenge teams based on their previous year’s performance.

 

This week’s game is going to be a great matchup and either team can win. But if we are being honest, if the Bills play a clean, mistake free game and if Josh Allen plays like he did against the Bengals, the Bills should win. That is why Vegas has the Bills favored even on the road in the Patriots stadium.

 

 

My point is....everyone knows, and most importantly teams know,  every year it gets tougher as you win or keep winning. My point is they will be prepared to take on whatever is thrown at them like most teams do. 

 

And about this week's game of course both teams can win. It's hard to swept a team in your division especially a good team. As perfect as Josh Allen played yesterday it came down to needing two major defensive plays to win because Cincy controlled that game all the way through.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Ghost_002!

[Ghost_002!]

21 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

With Benford. I got to think if 47 can shut down Chase he can do the same to Diggs. Maye doesn’t have other options  like Burrows did. 

 

This is not true. Maye spreads the ball around. Diggs is rarely the focal point of the offense. The ball gets spread around to their entire receiving core. 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Ghost_002!

[Billsfanatic8989]

Just now, eSJayDee said:

No.  There are other avenues other than that.  If we win out, I believe they merely need to lose to either the Jets or Phins.

My question is what happens if NE loses to us and Miami. All the while we win out. We would both be 13-4. We would both be 4-2 in the division. Both losing once to each other & Miami.

 

Do we win the division due to strength of schedule? 

[Deadstroke]

22 minutes ago, Ghost_002! said:

 

 

My point is....everyone knows, and most importantly teams know,  every year it gets tougher as you win or keep winning. My point is they will be prepared to take on whatever is thrown at them like most teams do. 

 

And about this week's game of course both teams can win. It's hard to swept a team in your division especially a good team. As perfect as Josh Allen played yesterday it came down to needing two major defensive plays to win because Cincy controlled that game all the way through.  

Controlled the Bills all the way through?  TOP: Bills 31:48 - Cincy 28:12

[Belgium_Bill]

I couldn't be bothered trying to work it out from the tie-breaker rules, so used ESPN's play-off predictor.

According to that, if we win out and Pats lose to Dolphins we win the division.

As I had to complete every single game in that predictor I am happy to inform you that we even scooped the 1st seed in "my scenarios".

 

Swapping the Pats loss from the Dolphins to the Ravens resulted in - logically - again both teams finishing 13-4 but in that case it is the Pats who get the top seed.

Interestingly enough, to my upmost surprise in that scenario we ended up, as 5th seed, playing the wildcard at Cincinatti 😮 with the results I had put in...  

[BillytheKid]

15 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

Time to redeem ourselves against the Patriots and put some heavy pressure on that young team the rest of the way.

 

If we win (and win out), and the Patriots lose to either the Jets or Dolphins, we take the AFCE crown.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Actually the tweet is wrong. The Pats opened -1 but the line flipped from Saturday night to Sunday in the Bills favor to -1.5. 
 

I know because I took the Bills Saturday night +1 and then again yesterday after the line flipped. 

[ColoradoBills]

37 minutes ago, eball said:

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. -- Pats*** win this tiebreaker, 10-2 vs. 11-3

 

How can one "common games" be a total of 12 and the other 14?

[RiotAct]

37 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

I think the Bills will win. 34-28. 

 

But, I don't think vegas intent/thinking is that the Bills will win. They are trying to get people to bet on NE. A few years ago, vegas made SF three points favorites over KC in the SB. Nobody in their right mind though SF had any business being favored to in the game. It was Vegas trying to get bets in on KC. 

 

This is a 50/50 game. There really is not much separating these teams. 

For sure.  They’ve got better coaching and the “chip on their shoulder” since we’ve dominated the division for a half decade; but we have the ultimate X-factor (JA17).

[Ghost_002!]

11 minutes ago, Deadstroke said:

Controlled the Bills all the way through?  TOP: Bills 31:48 - Cincy 28:12

 

 

The time of possession had nothing to do with it. It was getting dire before the pick 6 and even after the pick 6, they were only up like 3 with Burrow getting the ball back and up until that point their defense was struggling to stop Cincy.

[Process]

46 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I think this is wrong.  If the Pats*** beat Baltimore they would still own the tiebreaker over the Bills even if they lose to the Jets or Fish.

 

Edit:  here are the tiebreakers, with my comments should the Pats*** and Bills both finish 13-4 and the Pats*** lose to either NYJ or MIA:

 

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

 

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs) -- this would be even

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. -- this would be even

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. -- Pats*** win this tiebreaker, 10-2 vs. 11-3

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Strength of victory in all games.

Strength of schedule in all games

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

Best net points in common games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss

 

 

Bills and Pats would be tied in record in common games, both 11-3

Edited 24 minutes ago by Process

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

I think this is wrong.  If the Pats*** beat Baltimore they would still own the tiebreaker over the Bills even if they lose to the Jets or Fish.

 

Edit:  here are the tiebreakers, with my comments should the Pats*** and Bills both finish 13-4 and the Pats*** lose to either NYJ or MIA:

 

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

 

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs) -- this would be even

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. -- this would be even

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. -- Pats*** win this tiebreaker, 10-2 vs. 11-3

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Strength of victory in all games.

Strength of schedule in all games

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.

Best net points in common games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss

 

 

You are wrong.

 

If we both end up 13-4 and they lose to Dolphins/Jets, then we'd be tied in common games 11-3 and we'd win the seeding by conference games (all their losses are within conference, we have one loss vs Falcons).

 

As for common games tiebreaker, just look at the other games, it is easier. They are 2-1 (wins Giants, Titans, loss Raiders), we'd be 2-1 (wins Eagles, Chiefs, loss Texans). So it means same record in the common games. 

Edited 10 minutes ago by No_Matter_What

[Coach Tuesday]

This game will be fascinating.  From the responses in this thread I am guessing most folks don't actually watch other teams play that often when they're not playing the Bills.  The Patriots are a physical team - they bullied the Giants, who quit within the first five minutes.  Granted that's a bottom five team but they were completely outclassed in that game, they didn't want to deal with the physicality.  The Pats will be beyond fired up for this game, for the division against the (lately) division bully, coming off a bye, with a better coaching staff.  It will be an absolute dogfight from the opening whistle and I'm truly curious to see whether the Bills can match the intensity or whether they're just getting tired from years of taking everyone else's best punch - I truly do not know what to expect.  I won't mind so much if they lose, it's more about HOW they lose - but of course I'd love to see them show the Pats what championship football really looks like.  

 

It will be must-see TV.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

I think this is wrong.  If the Pats*** beat Baltimore they would still own the tiebreaker over the Bills even if they lose to the Jets or Fish.

 

Nothing to do with Baltimore.

If Bills win out and Pats lose to the Fins/Jets ... Bills win the division.

It's that simple.

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

15 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

Time to redeem ourselves against the Patriots and put some heavy pressure on that young team the rest of the way.

 

If we win (and win out), and the Patriots lose to either the Jets or Dolphins, we take the AFCE crown.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

If we win out and the Patriots* still take the division, there’s a good chance we will be road favorites throughout the playoffs. What a strange year.