The #1 Key To Buffalo Going On A Playoff Run

[May Day 10]

If the Bills get the Ravens at Baltimore in the playoffs, it will be their Superbowl.  Dont want that match up

[nosejob]

12 minutes ago, Sweats said:

I want nothing to do with the Ravens or KC, so any possible scenario that takes them out of the equation is fine with me.

Well the Ravens will deserve nothing if they don't beat the Pats.

[Gregg]

10 minutes ago, Sweats said:

I want nothing to do with the Ravens or KC, so any possible scenario that takes them out of the equation is fine with me.

 

I don't think KC is making it. I agree on the Ravens. Despite the Bills beating them the last two times they played it seemed like the Ravens were controlling the game at the LOS. The Bills should have lost the opener. How they won that game was a miracle. I hope the Steelers can win the division. After last week I have no problem with the Bills going to Pittsburgh in the playoffs if they have to.

[dorquemada]

43 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I actually think if the Defense can avoid too many more injuries, they’re starting to turn a corner.  The secondary has stabilized, and Shaq Thompson is playing way better than Bernard was.  If the likes of Bosa and Oliver can be healthy by the playoffs, even the D Line has the chance to get better.

 

Agreed.  They look like they're starting to round into form.  Especially Thompson and Milano, having solid LB play as Bishop and Hairston get more experience might make the difference. Remember why the Eagles were able to stomp all over KC in the superbowl, their defensive secondary gave their DL time to get home to mahomes and that was ultimately the story. 

[HamptonBillsfan]

The dominance of our O -line was mind blowing. This was done against a very talented defensive line and active LBs. If we can gracefully transition from Dion and give Brown a chance to get totally healthy, these O-linemen can make Cook’s explosion a regular occurrence. With Cook running wild giving our receivers single coverage, we can dominate time of possession and provide the framework for Josh to find a way against any AFC opponent. To me dominance of the O-line and the way we played the run with the emergence of Shaq Thompson is the key. Now I don’t expect our secondary to hold up against Burrow and those receivers but they won’t stop us either. I haven’t felt as confident all season as I do now. I don’t see any of our 5 remaining opponents, including NE, being favored over us.

[Niagara Dude]

7 hours ago, iwishitwerecolder said:

I’ve done some thinking over the past week about the upcoming bills games, seeding, ect.. and there’s one blaring problem that prevents Buffalo from making a run in the playoffs. That problem has to do with home field advantage. It’s pretty clear by now we aren’t winning the division, the patriots likely have that locked up barring an utter collapse like the dolphins in 2023. But one thing sticks out to me, and is the fix to the problem that can propel Buffalo going on a run. It has to do with the 5 seed.. let me explain.

 

I have done some playoff generators and this is what I’ve concocted as the most likely/best case scenario for Buffalo (being the 5 seed)

 

1. Broncos/Patritos (flip flop it, it doesn’t matter to my point)

2. Broncos/Patritos (flip flop it, it doesn’t matter to my point)
3. (AFC south winner)

4. (AFC north winner)

5. Buffalo

6. (2nd place in AFC south)

7. Chiefs/3rd spot in AFC south/Chargers/ect.

 

The reason Buffalo needs the 5 seed is to have the chance to play the winner of the AFC north. It’s clear to everyone the AFC north is lacking right now, and with how the playoffs work and division winners ect, the ravens/steelers will likely be the 4 seed. Buffalo has an amazing record against the AFC north since Josh Allen has been at the helm, especially in the playoffs, being 3-1. (Loss vs cinci). If Buffalo can get the Steelers, or really, even the ravens in the first round it would be the dream scenario. While some on this forum may think I’m “thinking ahead too much”, or that Buffalo shouldn’t worry about who they play on their playoff schedule and to just “beat who they play”, I would have to disagree. The bills have struggled on the road in the playoffs, and with it being more and more likely by the passing week that Buffalo will be a wild card team, this is what is going to have to happen. The bills will need a weak wild card weekend opponent to make a run. Go Bills and thanks for reading

Avoid playing the Ravens in their building in the first round ,  if Henry is healthy then I don't like our chances. I like our chances against everyone but the Ravens at Baltimore because we have no had much luck stopping Henry before

[BuffaloBillyG]

7 hours ago, iwishitwerecolder said:

I’ve done some thinking over the past week about the upcoming bills games, seeding, ect.. and there’s one blaring problem that prevents Buffalo from making a run in the playoffs. That problem has to do with home field advantage. It’s pretty clear by now we aren’t winning the division, the patriots likely have that locked up barring an utter collapse like the dolphins in 2023. But one thing sticks out to me, and is the fix to the problem that can propel Buffalo going on a run. It has to do with the 5 seed.. let me explain.

 

I have done some playoff generators and this is what I’ve concocted as the most likely/best case scenario for Buffalo (being the 5 seed)

 

1. Broncos/Patritos (flip flop it, it doesn’t matter to my point)

2. Broncos/Patritos (flip flop it, it doesn’t matter to my point)
3. (AFC south winner)

4. (AFC north winner)

5. Buffalo

6. (2nd place in AFC south)

7. Chiefs/3rd spot in AFC south/Chargers/ect.

 

The reason Buffalo needs the 5 seed is to have the chance to play the winner of the AFC north. It’s clear to everyone the AFC north is lacking right now, and with how the playoffs work and division winners ect, the ravens/steelers will likely be the 4 seed. Buffalo has an amazing record against the AFC north since Josh Allen has been at the helm, especially in the playoffs, being 3-1. (Loss vs cinci). If Buffalo can get the Steelers, or really, even the ravens in the first round it would be the dream scenario. While some on this forum may think I’m “thinking ahead too much”, or that Buffalo shouldn’t worry about who they play on their playoff schedule and to just “beat who they play”, I would have to disagree. The bills have struggled on the road in the playoffs, and with it being more and more likely by the passing week that Buffalo will be a wild card team, this is what is going to have to happen. The bills will need a weak wild card weekend opponent to make a run. Go Bills and thanks for reading

Well though out and presented. However, the one area I split with you, like many, is that Baltimore in Baltimore is far from a dream scenario. In fact, I would place that under more of a nightmare scenario. Worst possible outcome type thing. That team playing at home plays on another level.  It really doesn't matter that Buffalo has beaten Baltimore twice in the playoffs. Those teams are not this team. 

 

In fact, I would put the Bills getting the 6 seed as a better spot. Likely playing either Jacksonville or Indy. Then with a win, we would likely head to whoever the 1 seed is (Denver or Patriots). 

[Coffeesforclosers]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They have a ton of injuries to key guys... and Lamar missed time and they are not deep. Their roster build is very different to ours... they are a stars and jags build we are a solid and depth build. 

 

But they are arguably as healthy now as they have been since week 1 when they looked pretty good to me. I still say that is the worst possible WC matchup.

 

Interesting point regarding roster building philosophies.

 

I went back and did a quick dig on the Raven's post season record in the Lamar Jackson Era, along with the number of Ravens selected to go All Pro and/or Pro Bowl

 

2018-Lost in the Wildcard to the Chargers, 3 All Pro, 4 Pro Bowl selections.

 

2019-Lost in the Divisional round to the Titans, Lamar's first MVP year. 6 All Pro, 13 Pro Bowl selections.

 

2020-Lost to us in the Divisional round, 2 All Pro, 7 Pro Bowl selections.

 

2021-Missed the playoffs. 3 All Pro, 5 Pro Bowl selections.

 

2022-Lost to Cinci in the Wildcard, 3 All Pro, 7 Pro Bowl selections.

 

2023-Lost to the Chiefs in the AFCG, Lamar's second MVP year, 6 All Pro, 8 Pro Bowl selections.

 

2024-Lost to us in the Divisional round, 6 All Pro, 11 Pro Bowl selections.

 

In the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens have missed the playoffs once, been one-and-done'd twice, and made it to 1 AFCG. With a roster that usually has more than it's fair share of Very Good to Elite players. 

 

So long as you have an MVP level franchise QB, "Solid and Deep" seems to beat "Stars and JAGs" in consistency over time. At least in a Bills/Ravens comparison.

[Olliemets]

Good homework. 

I can't get too worked up thinking of permutations. Still have to win our games. Would be nice to have a desirable slot locked up Week 18 so as to rest people vs Jets.

 

Let's start with beating Bengals this Sunday and extinguishing any hope they have. It won't be easy. They have 8 losses and unbelievably still have outside shot at Division.

 

AFC North is weird and if Bengals somehow run the table, it's not inconceivable that Ravens and Steelers, who each have 6 losses, play each other twice.

 

Pittsburgh remaining opponents- Ravens 2x, Dolphins, at Detroit, at Cleveland (never an easy game for them). Not inconceivable they lose 3 more games.

Baltimore opponents- Steelers 2x, Bengals, Pats, at Green Bay. That's a rough schedule. They can lose 3.

 

I'd rather go to Pittsburgh or even Baltimore over Cincinnati. Go beat Joe Burrow Sunday. 

[DrBob806]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Gimme the easiest path please. 

Oh boy.....

[ganesh]

The biggest issue is we don't have the tie-breaker against Houston. If we are tied with Houston on W/L record, they will be the higher seed.  Secondly, it is also possible that the AFC South will beat each other up and their records will be no different than the AFC north winner and hence it will be a toss up between them for the #3 and #4 seed.  There are too many meaningful games to make a call on us being the 4th seed or us playing the AFC North. 

 

The only thing that seems to be locked right now is that the Patriots and the Broncos could be #1 and #2.  

 

The other problem is that we unlikely win on the road in Baltimore.  It is a super tough place to play.  I would rather have the shot to play the Jones led Colts or the Prince led Jaguars.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, ganesh said:

The biggest issue is we don't have the tie-breaker against Houston. If we are tied with Houston on W/L record, they will be the higher seed.  Secondly, it is also possible that the AFC South will beat each other up and their records will be no different than the AFC north winner and hence it will be a toss up between them for the #3 and #4 seed.  There are too many meaningful games to make a call on us being the 4th seed or us playing the AFC North. 

 

The only thing that seems to be locked right now is that the Patriots and the Broncos could be #1 and #2.  

 

The other problem is that we unlikely win on the road in Baltimore.  It is a super tough place to play.  I would rather have the shot to play the Jones led Colts or the Prince led Jaguars.

 

Between the Jaguars, Colts and Texans I think Houston wins that division mainly because of their defense. It's going to be fun to see who wins the AFCS being it's a very close race.

[ProcessTruster]

5 or 6 tournament seed works for me.   I would rather be away at a warm weather/dome site to let the offense cook.   going to Denver or Pats round 1 would probably not be good.   

 

Although, if the roster is healthy again and they don't turn it over, not sure who beats us. 

 

JA17 is our super power; if the roster around him is healthy come tournament time, watch out.  

[QCity]

8 hours ago, iwishitwerecolder said:

 even the ravens in the first round it would be the dream scenario.

 

Baltimore are favorites to win the AFC North and playing the Ravens in the first round is certainly not a dream scenario.

[SoonerBillsFan]

Just win, it doesnt matter who we play.

[27yankees]

The chips are being layed down. Play the hand dealt and go win. Seems a certain WC team made it to the Bowl in the early nineties. 

Edited 1 hour ago by 27yankees

[T.E.]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Well though out and presented. However, the one area I split with you, like many, is that Baltimore in Baltimore is far from a dream scenario. In fact, I would place that under more of a nightmare scenario. Worst possible outcome type thing. That team playing at home plays on another level.  It really doesn't matter that Buffalo has beaten Baltimore twice in the playoffs. Those teams are not this team. 

 

In fact, I would put the Bills getting the 6 seed as a better spot. Likely playing either Jacksonville or Indy. Then with a win, we would likely head to whoever the 1 seed is (Denver or Patriots). 

Agreed. Whoever has to go to Baltimore is drawing the toughest road assignment in Round 1, in my opinion.

 

I think you can even make an argument that it is the toughest place in the league to play for a visitor.

[Billsatlastin2018]

The bottom line?

 

The Bills FUBARed 4 easily winnable games, ALL inferiors, some simply incompetent chumps! 
 

This has cost them the critical factor of NOT playing at OP, likely throughout the Playoffs. There are therefore, because of this incompetence, NO easy outs. Perhaps, perhaps, Baltimore is the easiest option, where they will be the underdogs. This is all about the health of Lamar. If he is aok… trouble.

 

In any case, to get to the SB, an easy target in September, due to the puff sked, is now a Road Warrior marathon. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The primary competition in WC - not going to get into tiebreakers because i think its too early.  

 

LAC - 8-4 - PHI, @KC, @DAL, HOU, @DEN - Absolutely brutal schedule - 10-7? Maybe?

IND - 8-4 - @JAX, @SEA, SF, JAX, @HOU - Another tough slate - Also 10-7.  

JAX - 8-4 - IND, NYJ, @DEN, @IND, Tenn - Couple easy home games, 3 tough games - 11-6 best case which would probably take the division

HOU - 7-5 - @KC, ARI, LVR, @LAC, IND - Couple easier games at home, but 3 tough games - 10-7 best case - indy week 18 might be win and in

KC - 6-6 -HOU, LAC, @TEN, DEN, @LVR - Easy road games, and 3 teams they can beat at home - I'd guess 10-7 and if the loss is to denver they're very much in the mix.

BAL - 6-6 - PIT, @CIN, NE, @GB, @PIT - 3 wins would get them to 9-8

PIT - 6-6 - @BAL, MIA, @DET, @CLE, BAL - Could see them splitting and both finishing 9-8, another interesting week 18 scenario. 

 

Based on this - Buffalo is probably the 5 seed if they go 3-2 the rest of the way.  It will depend on who wins the AFC South - but if there's an 11-6 team, the other 2 are probably 10-7.  I don't see any of the other 3 going on a 5-0 run to get to 11 wins, and we have tiebreakers over all of them anyway.  

 

So I think the ideal scenario would be BAL losing @CIN, and PIT losing @DET and @BAL.  Week 18 game would be for the division as they'd both finish 9-8 and Pittsburgh would take it on divisional record.  I would rather play a team we handily beat than a team that trucked us in week 1 - injured lamar is still more dynamic than rodgers.  

 

[ScottishBills]

33 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

The bottom line?

 

The Bills FUBARed 4 easily winnable games, ALL inferiors, some simply incompetent chumps! 
 

This has cost them the critical factor of NOT playing at OP, likely throughout the Playoffs. There are therefore, because of this incompetence, NO easy outs. Perhaps, perhaps, Baltimore is the easiest option, where they will be the underdogs. This is all about the health of Lamar. If he is aok… trouble.

 

In any case, to get to the SB, an easy target in September, due to the puff sked, is now a Road Warrior marathon. 

 

Good time to bring up the fan police on here after Pats and Falcons defeats when you point out that those would end up being massively costly - even back in early October. They cant wait to tell you its an overreaction and season starts after Thanksgiving, calm down etc.

 

Well it turns out pissing away easy games early on does indeed count in your final record and ultimate seeding. Path is not impossible, but its definitely harder than it ought to have been based on the schedule we had this year (look at next year for example, way harder schedule)(also comically we could end up with Texans, Ravens and 49ers/Seahawks/Rams as 2nd place teams - so there really wont be any schedule advantage over the 1st place Pats either)