Game week thread - Bengals at Bills (flexed to 1pm ET)

[Matt_In_NH]

10 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It's an opinion expressed IMO with undue optimism when stated as "will probably make the playoffs if they win out".

 

 When in actuality you mean they might be able to squeak out winning their division if they win out and a lot of things break their way.

Per the NYT’s playoff simulator, the Bengals have a 76% chance of making the playoffs if we win our remaining 5 games. It’s unlikely we can make it as a wild card, seeing that multiple teams would need to implode weeks 13-18. Therefore, our best bet of making the playoffs is for us to win the AFC North

 

76% means probably and is not undue optimism.  It’s based on data.   It’s fine if you don’t believe it or want to actually understand the scenario.   Go to the simulators and you will see if you want, or just pontificate…whatever you want to do.  
 

My whole point is that you going to get a big effort from the bengals because they will feel they are still alive and the division is in play.   On top of getting shot in the arm with Burrow returning.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Matt_In_NH

[todd]

8 hours ago, balln said:

Well I guarantee the bills are going to run the same 3 running plays and try and play it safe with ground and pound. Especially w WR 1 and TE 1 not evening being able to complete a walk through fully. Still.  
 

I’m getting to the point where there’s no hope for a gameplan coming from McBrady to throw it / air raid …… McD wants to minimize his “hurt D” …. Just feeels like the same script over and over again. But worse

 

So how did that ground and pound plan work out last week? Obviously stupid and not a recipe for success.

[finn]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

Come on man. Just come to terms that NE is a damn good football team with a legit QB. It's ok bro. Every week people say NE could lose the game. This week people had the Giants beating them FFS. Like that was ever going to happen.  I'm not going to sit here and say they won't lose another game but they aren't going to dump 3 games. Miami may have had a little streak but in years past we all know Tua and the fish dont play well in Dec/winter months.

 

The answer is that on paper, no it isn't out of reach. Thinking logically about it is another story.

I am thinking logically--about an illogical season that has turned expectations upside down. The Raiders beating the Ravens? The Panthers beating the Rams AND Green Bay? Miami blowing out the Bills? As you say, "Like that was ever going to happen." But it did. So, yeah, New England could easily lose three more games. A few injuries like the Bills have had, a few bad bounces, Diggs doing his diva thing, and the bottom could fall out for them. And I for one would love to see it. 

[finn]

9 hours ago, balln said:

 

so let me get this straight. He has been out with a hamstring. Hasn’t played. Hasn’t really practiced. And somehow with today’s walkthrough he has a knee AND hamstring listed. What is with the injury reports! This year has been very weird and suspicious. I love Sal trying to explain it away with nonsense 

I want to know what is with the walk-throughs. By my count, they've led to injuries to Rapp, Bass, Sanders, Kincaid (twice now), Dequan, Samuel, Palmer, Milano, and Bernard. It's just practice for god's sake! What are they doing, throwing woodstoves to each other? 

12 hours ago, jkeerie said:

By the time NE plays Miami, Tua, Waddle and Waller will all be injured.  It's just the way NE's schedule has played out.  The football gods are smiling on them.

So far. I suspect a reckoning is coming. They're a lovely football team, ripe for a smackdown.  

[PaattMaann]

13 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Ok if you say so. Maybe reread what I said sentence by sentence word for word. With the exception of the first sentence what do you disagree with? 

 

Such a dumb comment that you back track and agree with me. 

 

It's all good though. No offense taken. 

 

Go Bills. 

 

I was only taking umbrage with that part of your statement though, something that was factually incorrect and I wanted to point out its been one of our strengths, which seems to be what you couldn't understand from the beginning. 

 

Go Bills. 

[boyst]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I'm not saying your wrong. I actually agree that another position would have benefited us. However, I think they were enticed by the idea of 2 pass catching TEs that could also help block. Its actually part of Brady's system to show same formations with them in that could either be passing or rushing. DCs have figured this out though and good ones seem to know the tells too.  All that to say is that I think they actually wanted Kincaid and it wasn't some panic spend like another poster suggested. I could be wrong, but thats what I think. Reason being is that they have been wanting to run the football since McD got here and couldn't figure it out and that was the answer to a better run game for them while also giving them a pass catching target.

I like this to Tyler eifert. He was gonna be HOF and light the world up ... But never did. 

 

That's how I saw Kincaid. 

[Sierra Foothills]

18 hours ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

Someone please remind me, what injury is Palmer dealing with again?  

 

Spleen.

 

17 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Unless my maths failed me, he has played in 42 out of possible 49 games as a Bill.

 

I know that in addition to missed games he has also played through injury last year but still. 

 

According to Pro Football Reference, Kincaid's played in 37 of 46 regular season games and 5 of 5 playoff games so 42 of a possible 51... 82%.

 

That prorates to exactly 14 games played and 3 missed per 17 game season.

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

11 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

With the Bills WR's over the last 2 seasons if Allen threw the ball with anticipation he would likely be leading the NFL in INT's.  

Burrow and his wide receivers are like Emmitt Smith with his Oline. 

[dave mcbride]

10 hours ago, Tulsabillsfanz said:

I love watching Kincaid play when he’s healthy.  But, I always wince when he gets tackled because it seems every 2nd or 3rd time he’s tackled he’s getting up slowly or grimacing.  I don’t know if adding 10-15 lbs. of muscle could make him less injury prone, but he just seems way too fragile for a TE. 

Whenever I hear “injury prone” for a player like Kincaid, I go back to Paul Posluzny, who was universally regarded as “injury prone” when he played for the Bills. Once he left Buffalo for Jacksonville, though, he missed very few games in the 7 seasons he played for them. In five of the 7 seasons, he played every game, and another he played 14 out of 16 games. My point is, while some players ARE injury prone and some are also iron men (ie, Josh Allen, Brett Favre, and even Dion Dawkins), for the majority of players who do miss time, more often than not it’s just bad luck and not a function of internal makeup. Kincaid has played in 42 out of 49 games so far (including playoffs), and hamstring pulls are very common occurrences for all players. So I’m not willing to declare him injury prone just yet.

 

By way of comparison, TE Hunter Henry missed a LOT of time early on in his career, but he is basically an iron man now. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HenrHu00.htm

[wjag]

14 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Start Slay against Chase and see how much he has left. Please let us hit the jackpot

I looked at the Bengals v Steelers matchups this year.  Flacco torched the vaunted Ramsey-Slay Defense and Chase went off big.  In the second matchup numbers were down for Chase and Flacco.  The second game was in Pitt.  But I could not find any reference to Slay in the D stats.  So I am not sure if this was the beginning of the end for him.  He also doesn't appear in the Bills v Steelers matchup Stat sheet.  Looks like he lost his job to the street free agent A Samuels at that point. 

[zow2]

I think they are desperate for Kincaid to play, because Cincinnati is so vulnerable to tight ends gashing them.  Assuming he does play, and makes it through the majority of the game I feel like this will be his last of the season.  The guy is held together with duct tape at this point.  I just can't see him being healthy the rest of the season and certainly won't be after this game (if he plays).

[Sierra Foothills]

5 minutes ago, wjag said:

I looked at the Bengals v Steelers matchups this year.  Flacco torched the vaunted Ramsey-Slay Defense and Chase went off big.  In the second matchup numbers were down for Chase and Flacco.  The second game was in Pitt.  But I could not find any reference to Slay in the D stats.  So I am not sure if this was the beginning of the end for him.  He also doesn't appear in the Bills v Steelers matchup Stat sheet.  Looks like he lost his job to the street free agent A Samuels at that point. 

 

The bolded is technically true but an odd characterization.

 

It's equally true that he's a former 2nd rounder who's started 47 0f 51 games in his career and was available due to medical concerns. He had 3 interceptions in a game against Jacksonville.

 

It's not like he's Dane Jackson.

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

In regards to Kincaid,  remember when many of us said he looked too skinny in OTA'S And Camp?

 

Hummmmm.....

[zow2]

Winds Sunday only expected to be 4 mph from the west.  What a beautiful weather day for Joey Burrow to sling it around.  I hope McD & Co. have a good plan. 

[wjag]

6 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

The bolded is technically true but an odd characterization.

 

It's equally true that he's a former 2nd rounder who's started 47 0f 51 games in his career and was available due to medical concerns. He had 3 interceptions in a game against Jacksonville.

 

It's not like he's Dane Jackson.

 

 

Not disputing any of this.  But it can't be coincidence that Asante starts and Slay is asking out.  He had to have been told his services were not valued.  Playing the Bengals and Chase would be a game you would think he would absolutely be needed in. 

[HOUSE]

I hate the Bengals and a win would be huge for me.

Bills too

[Avisan]

40 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

In regards to Kincaid,  remember when many of us said he looked too skinny in OTA'S And Camp?

 

Hummmmm.....

Yeah, it was absurd then and is absurd to bring up now

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Probably deserves it's own thread:

 

Tre White hasn't allowed more than 2 catches or a completion percentage of more than 50% since October 5th. 
 

Give that man his flowers.