Perspective Matters: The Offense Is Producing

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The best game we played was against the Super Bowl favorites.

 

The Bills play their best, when it's required. How many times do we have to see it to understand that.

[ticketssince61]

15 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

 

I am fairly confident in my assessment of the offense because the Chiefs game we saw significantly more emphasis on Shakir, Kincaid and Cook. And the offense looked arguably the best it had all season. Going forward, this is the formula. The "everybody eats" mantra was cute and a way to take a shot at Diggs, but in reality, the ball needs to be put in the real playmakers hands. Only then do things start to open up for other guys as the defense is forced to adjust to stop the bleeding, so to speak. 

 

A few random thoughts:

- The offense looked great in the 1st half, but only put up 7 in the 2nd half and we barely hung on to win a game that looked like would be a convincing win

- I think about 2/3 of Cook's yards were in the first half

- The early 1990 Bills would have gotten the ball back with a few minutes to go and 

- if we had a WR with speed and separation it would open up the rest of the offense even more: teams would not be able to stack the line, Khalil would have a lot more space in the middle to work. With our current WR's teams can compress the field against us since don't have to worry about the long ball

- we should at least attempt a few long passes a game to keep defenses honest

[Mikie2times]

28 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

And what is the biggest culprit for those losses?  Is it wide receiver separation or the defense?

So the assumption is we can check the box on defense at this point? We had the #1 EPA defense in 2021, 7th in 2022, 11th in 2023, 12th in 2024,  and now 12th in 2025. We have had many times in the regular season where we look unbeatable on defense. I'm hopeful our investment pays off and it looks like it can. But at the end of the day we have been down that road plenty of times before. We are one more injury away from even an optimistic look on that side of the ball falling apart. Max, Bishop, Bosa, Benford, all it takes is one more. That's assuming it all comes together as you hope it will this time. 

 

To your call out, yes, separation was an issue on our final two drives vs the Chiefs. It's not about isolating to specific plays. It's about increasing the margin for success. Our margin in those situations is razor thin. You increase it by increasing your ways to win. Maybe Josh doesn't see that blitz on 4th down if he never gets to 4th down. Our formula almost guarantees our offense will have to deliver on multiple high leverage drives in the postseason. I don't see the horses to execute that drive. Glad you do. 

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

I feel a lot better about our chances after the Chiefs game. We looked good. I hope we are just gaining speed because what matters is how you finish the season, not start it. I've seen so many teams over the years come out of the gates hot only to lose all that steam down the stretch. To me the best teams end the regular season better than how they started it. SO I am glad to see us play such a complete game against a top team.



Perspective Matters: Weed helps!

 

Based on the Bills 32-7 record post-bye since 2020, I think that is probably a safe bet.

7 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

So the assumption is we can check the box on defense at this point? We had the #1 EPA defense in 2021, 7th in 2022, 11th in 2023, 12th in 2024,  and now 12th in 2025. We have had many times in the regular season where we look unbeatable on defense. I'm hopeful our investment pays off and it looks like it can. But at the end of the day we have been down that road plenty of times before. We are one more injury away from even an optimistic look on that side of the ball falling apart. Max, Bishop, Bosa, Benford, all it takes is one more. That's assuming it all comes together as you hope it will this time. 

 

To your call out, yes, separation was an issue on our final two drives vs the Chiefs. It's not about isolating to specific plays. It's about increasing the margin for success. Our margin in those situations is razor thin. You increase it by increasing your ways to win. Maybe Josh doesn't see that blitz on 4th down if he never gets to 4th down. Our formula almost guarantees our offense will have to deliver on multiple high leverage drives in the postseason. I don't see the horses to execute that drive. Glad you do. 

 

How about the defense just plays like it does against KC in the regular season in the playoffs?  Mahomes averages 19.8 PPG, has 8 TDs vs. 9 TOs and a 75.2 Passer Rating in the regular season against us and essentially can't be stopped in the playoffs when the D allows an average of over 34 PPG.  No excuse for the same team, and running the same system to allow 2 TDs more consistently game in and game out in the postseason versus the regular season. At this point, I am thinking it's all mental for this team on D against KC in the playoffs.

 

Offensively we average more PPG in the playoffs against them. Clearly the D is the issue here regardless of anything else going on with the offense and there is really no valid argument otherwise that makes logical sense.

Edited 2 hours ago by Big Turk

[Mikie2times]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Based on the Bills 32-7 record post-bye since 2020, I think that is probably a safe bet.

 

How about the defense just plays like it does against KC in the regular season in the playoffs?  Mahomes averages 19.8 PPG, has 8 TDs vs. 9 TOs and a 75.2 Passer Rating in the regular season against us and essentially can't be stopped in the playoffs when the D allows an average of over 34 PPG.  No excuse for the same team, and running the same system to allow 2 TDs more consistently game in and game out in the postseason versus the regular season. At this point, I am thinking it's all mental for this team on D against KC in the playoffs.

 

Offensively we average more PPG in the playoffs against them. Clearly the D is the issue here regardless of anything else going on with the offense.

When it happens I will believe it can happen. 

[Luka]

3 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

A few random thoughts:

- The offense looked great in the 1st half, but only put up 7 in the 2nd half and we barely hung on to win a game that looked like would be a convincing win

- I think about 2/3 of Cook's yards were in the first half

- The early 1990 Bills would have gotten the ball back with a few minutes to go and 

- if we had a WR with speed and separation it would open up the rest of the offense even more: teams would not be able to stack the line, Khalil would have a lot more space in the middle to work. With our current WR's teams can compress the field against us since don't have to worry about the long ball

- we should at least attempt a few long passes a game to keep defenses honest

 

Elijah Moore is the guy you are describing. Again, it is up to Brady to make the adjustments to get a guy like Moore involved. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

It doesn’t need to be better—but sure, it could be. That said, the offense is already more than good enough to win a Super Bowl or any other meaningful game. The real question is the defense.

If the Bills can consistently play defense with the same tenacity and game planning we’ve seen recently, this team can absolutely go the distance.

Let’s be honest—everyone knows the defense has been the issue in past playoff runs. But watching Max Hairston paired with Benford, and seeing the emergence of Cole Bishop, gave me a glimpse of what this secondary could look like moving forward.

And then there’s the front seven—Bosa, Rousseau, and Epenesa were relentless against Mahomes. Deone Walker blowing up Creed Humphrey on the goal line to stop a touchdown? That was a statement.

Maybe I’m overly exuberant after these last two games, but something feels different. This defense is starting to look like it could be special—and that’s exciting.

 

I don't disagree with anything you're saying, but I do want to add a little context.

Mahomes faced pressure on more than half his throws, but only 2 times did the pressure come before 2.5 seconds.  In other words, he faced coverage because the guys in the secondary were - amazingly enough - locking up their guys.  

 

Chris Simms really liked the way the Bills mixed up their coverage calls.  "They never played the same coverage in the same situation twice in a row."    

 

 

[Luka]

3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I don't disagree with anything you're saying, but I do want to add a little context.

Mahomes faced pressure on more than half his throws, but only 2 times did the pressure come before 2.5 seconds.  In other words, he faced coverage because the guys in the secondary were - amazingly enough - locking up their guys.  

 

Chris Simms really liked the way the Bills mixed up their coverage calls.  "They never played the same coverage in the same situation twice in a row."    

 

 

 

Max Hairston might just be a good one guys and gals. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Good question. Um, he’s the best of the bunch. He absolutely makes them better than they are today. I’d also probably try giving Moore more routes (no pun intended). Maybe you can cobble together just enough to keep defenses honest. That way you can still run the ball and work the underneath stuff.

Samuel Moore and Palmer can all catch deeper routes.  And Moore and Samuel are quick enough on the flats to get YAC.  

 

You have to wonder how much say #17 has in the play calling and game plan each week.  (He certainly should)  And should be talking with the coaching staff about what he wants incorporated in the offense passing wise on a week to week basis.  The deep cross he hit Kincaid with in the second against KC was a thing of beauty, and can be run with just about every receiver we have.  

[Green Lightning]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

I respectfully disagree with that take—focusing on one play instead of the full body of work from the game misses the bigger picture.

But even if we do isolate that one play against the Chiefs on first down, it wasn’t about receivers failing to get open. It was a well-designed blitz that our All-World QB misread, and the offensive line missed their assignments. That breakdown had everything to do with protection and recognition—not a lack of separation.

Let’s not rewrite the narrative based on one moment. The game is bigger than that.

 

When it comes to playmakers, I think this is the best offensive line we’ve had—better than last year’s unit. James Cook has emerged as a top-3 running back in the league, and Dalton Kincaid is now playing at a Pro Bowl level, with two other tight ends who can supplement the attack.

On defense, the emergence of Maxwell Hairston could be a game-changer. Cole Bishop, especially over the past two games, has brought a presence we haven’t seen since prime Jordan Poyer. Joey Bosa is playing at an elite level when he’s on, and Deone Walker is flashing signs of something special.

There’s a real chance we’re witnessing the rise of something new and exciting—this team is starting to look stacked with playmakers on both sides of the ball

You're optimistic for sure, and I pray you're spot on. But based on the last 5 seasons I am not as upbeat. It's not just the one play, it's having the playmakers that can make those crucial plays at crucial times. There is nobody elite on our defense.  They are solid, some maybe up and coming, but not a guy that can routinely disrupt the elite offenses. Last week, KC was down 3 starters on their Oline, and still the game was in Mahomes hand on the last 2 plays. On offense, we have Josh and Cook as elite. But how many times does Josh have to scramble and still can't find a anyone open? He doesn't have a guy that will be open no matter what. He has a committee of good, but not great pass catchers. Sometimes you need great to be the last team standing. Will this be year be different than the last 5? I sure as Hell pray so, but it feels like I am watching the same movie. And hey, I have followed this team since 1963, so I appreciate these past years more than you know. But I want to see the Bills win the SB before I check out. To quote George Allen, The future is now.

[mjt328]

3 hours ago, BillsVet said:

Funny that people point always to metrics which is more just seeing the trees but not the forest.  

 

Buffalo's strength of schedule is 15th in the AFC and 30th overall.  As it stands, they've played 1 team thus far that would make the playoffs and even counting KC, then that's 2 out of 8 games.  They have 4 more the rest of the way.    

 

Every playoffs the competition is better and there's more motivating players because more is at stake.   What worked in the regular season has been borne out to not be as effective in the post-season which was on display against KC in their last playoff loss (cue the 29 points scored refrain poster).  

 

Agree with all of this.  I would also add that metrics/stats are generally an average of what the team has done throughout the season.  Playing teams like the Jets, Dolphins and Panthers are going to boost those figures significantly.

 

When I'm evaluating a team, I want to see how the passing game performs against a strong pass rush and lock-down secondary.  I want to see how the rushing game can move a really stout front 7.  I want to see how much pressure we can generate against a really good O-Line group.  I want to see how whether our corners are winning battles against the top receivers.  When the playoffs roll around, it becomes much more difficult to hide your weak spots.  There are also no do-overs for a bad game.  You either show up or go home.

 

[GoBills808]

47 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

If the goal was to win a SB this year at all costs then we'd have mortgaged the future for Hoecht and Oliver replacements.

 

The subtext is fans want to see Allen throw the ball more, and possibly that they don't understand you can't win a SB without a balanced roster.

i think you'll be hard pressed to define a goal short of 'win the SB this year at all costs' tbh

 

and i don't think you're giving people who want a more sophisticated passing offense enough credit

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The Run pass splits in the 2nd half were pretty tilted, especially on 1st down.  Every non-scoring drive had a 3rd and long on it.  

 

My thoughts - We run the ball a LOT on first down, and when it works we are rolling.  When it doesn't... well thats when all these separation things come into play.  

 

On 3rd and 7 or longer Allen is 18/29 for 233 yards - 2 TDs and 1 Interception.  Also sacked 7x for -53 yards and another 4 carries for 39 yards.  

 

Net yards - 219

Total plays - 40

Total conversions - 11

Net yard average - 5.475

 

I know these will always be lower percentage, and i know penalties have hit us a ton this year on offense setting up these behind the sticks moments - but the easiest way out of it is to occasionally put the ball in the air on first down, in a play action look.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Bleeding Bills Blue

[Low Positive]

55 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

If the goal was to win a SB this year at all costs then we'd have mortgaged the future for Hoecht and Oliver replacements.

 

The subtext is fans want to see Allen throw the ball more, and possibly that they don't understand you can't win a SB without a balanced roster.

Football is entertainment, and downfield passing is fun to watch. I mean, look at this. Some people would rather lose like this than win the way we won. 

 

[Artful Dodger]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Bills play their best, when it's required. How many times do we have to see it to understand that.

 

Absolutely, until the playoffs.  Then all bets are off.  

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Artful Dodger said:

 

Absolutely, until the playoffs.  Then all bets are off.  

 

No, then the defense has a brain fart, but mostly only against the Chiefs.

Edited 1 hour ago by Big Turk

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

I don't care. 

 

Buffalo was second in points scored last year, third in point differential, etc. during the regular season.  And they still barely got past Baltimore in the Divisional Round game and had to grind it out in the AFC CG.  

 

The offense is built to succeed in the regular season and falters under the weight of greater expectations and pressure in the post-season.      

Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds?

 

“They still barely got past Baltimore.” Yeah - I’d hope it wasn’t a cakewalk. No one “blows through” playoff teams for four straight weeks. Sorry if dismantling one of the league’s best defenses (Denver) the week before skewed your idea of what postseason football looks like.

 

This version of the Bills offense averaged 29 points per game in the 2024 playoffs - better than the much-hyped Joe Burrow offenses, which average 23 across seven postseason games and never topped 27. The 2x MVP Lamar Jackson Ravens average 19, by the way. Even Jalen Hurts’ “high-flying” Eagles check in at 30.

 

Welcome to the NFL playoffs. It’s supposed to be ***** hard.

[VW82]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

i think you'll be hard pressed to define a goal short of 'win the SB this year at all costs' tbh

 

and i don't think you're giving people who want a more sophisticated passing offense enough credit

 

Ok well how about "compete for a SB this year while preserving our ability to compete for a SB next year and the year after."

 

I might be giving "people who want a more sophisticated passing offense" too much credit. For starters, we already had that, and we became a more productive overall offense in year by moving away from that to more of a ball control offense despite arguably not having the right personnel to do so. Now we do have the right personnel for the latter as well as an OC who wants to run that kind of offense, and yet fans still want to go back to something that didn't work as well under previous leadership. 

 

But even if you want to argue that was all on Dorsey and point to the success we had under Daboll, the reality is we have Brady who has the trust of the FO and isn't going to run that stuff regardless of who we bring in. 

 

Others have pointed out we made calls for #1s. I understand why we did that - Keon isn't getting better. Hopefully, we're able to find an affordable alternative in the offseason either via draft or trade when we have more opportunities to make it work under the cap. In season trades are tough. Best outcome is usually someone like washed up Cooper who you burn a valuable pick for. Shaheed would've been a complimentary piece for us that doesn't move the needle. 

 

So yeah...pining for "more wr weapons" and "more sophisticated passing offense" feels a lot like missing the point of where we were, how we evolved to this point, and who's still in charge running the show.