Bills Future Core Through 2029-30

[corta765]

I like to do this exercise during season once and during the offseason post draft looking at the Bills core/players who should be starters over the foreseeable future which in turn shows the holes they will have. My criteria for this is players who either are starting currently that I would expect will start for the next 4-5 years (reasonably of course) or they are young but showed enough potential/solid play that you should be able to consider them starting in that time frame and contributing regularly. On the flipside a player who is older and realistically probably ages or contract wise will be a cut I will not list like Taron Johnson given the odds he regresses overtime.

 

Offense:

 

QB: Josh Allen (duh)

RB: James Cook

WR: Khalil Shakir

TE: Dalton Kincaid // Jackson Hawes

O-Line: Dawkins - Edwards- McGovern-Torrence- Brown

 

Defense:

 

DE: Greg Rousseau

DT: Ed Oliver // Deone Walker // TJ Sanders // DeWayne Carter

LB: Terrel Bernard // Dorian Williams

CB: Christian Benford // Max Hariston // Dorian Strong

SAF: Cole Bishop

 

The good news for the offense is that offensive line is young enough where it is realistic to see the same group for years. Will they all actually stay? Probably not, but offensive lineman hold value and skill far longer then other positions and the oldest of the group is actually Dawkins. The TE & RB spot is in a good spot, the problem point is of course WR in a very bad way. Even if Coleman were to miraculously become a top WR they just really lack any youth at that position after him. Beane can say what he wants about the position, but realistically it will need some real investment in the next year or so (if not today).

 

The defense is far more interesting where spots like DT/CB you can feel potentially really good long term about the depth an quality. LB they really need a guy to come in and become a starter long term. SAF if Bishop develops as he has you need one more guy. DE forever feels like the biggest spot that they just cannot get it fully right despite picks. AJ has played quite well for the Bills but I will be stunned if in 2-3 years he is still here, Javon Solomon is too green to make a call on, and Landon Jackson can't get into the lineup at this point. Hopefully with Solomon & Jackson they can become quality starters that help that position out, but if there becomes a time they can ever get a in prime pass rusher it would be a big boost.

 

No team is perfect, Buffalo has Josh which is the biggest thing but the rest of the roster has a lot of good quality starters with some truly good ones. Overall you can see where the strengths are and the defense if the kids keep developing their is the potential for some real dynamite players there. At the same time godbless Milano, Watt, Poyer but you will need to reinforce those areas to keep progressing on D. The offense it feels like the same old song but WR you just need more. Beane with his more recent WR FA signings has missed more then you'd want as Samuels can't stay on the field, Palmer isn't bad but hurt like his record says, Moore is JAG, and Hollis was a fine role player. Assuming no move happens today for an Olave or Waddle or Shaheed, your are looking at needing a more quality WR FA and at least drafting one preferably two WRs in round 1-5 next year.

 

[Big Turk]

Dorian Strong likely is going to be forced to retire due to the neck injury based on the ominous phrasing McD used repeatedly during his PC yesterday.  And even if he comes back, there is likely a high reoccurrence rate that WOULD force him to retire within a year or two.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Dorian Strong likely is going to be forced to retire due to the neck injury based on the ominous phrasing McD used repeatedly during his PC yesterday.  And even if he comes back, there is likely a high reoccurrence rate that WOULD force him to retire within a year or two.

Hancock is much more likely to be a part of the core moving forward than Strong. It may be at slot or it may be at S. 

[BearNorth]

Biggest issue with this is going to be the size of Allen's contract by 2029-30.  His cap hit for 29-30 is showing as 86 Million.

[corta765]

6 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Biggest issue with this is going to be the size of Allen's contract by 2029-30.  His cap hit for 29-30 is showing as 86 Million.

They we redo it again. Anyteam with a top QB will redo it until retirement to keep the window going. You take the pain later.

17 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Dorian Strong likely is going to be forced to retire due to the neck injury based on the ominous phrasing McD used repeatedly during his PC yesterday.  And even if he comes back, there is likely a high reoccurrence rate that WOULD force him to retire within a year or two.

Probably right I missed those comments yesterday. Sucks I loved his play this year.

[buffalostu2]

I don't see Carter, Strong or Williams being here even next year.  

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, corta765 said:

They we redo it again. Anyteam with a top QB will redo it until retirement to keep the window going. You take the pain later.

Probably right I missed those comments yesterday. Sucks I loved his play this year.

 

Yeah me too...he was in line to replace Tre as an option and relegate him to solid depth

[mushypeaches]

File this under "who cares??"

 

Thinking about any roster 4 years into the future when the average NFL career lasts 3 years is a waste of time

The current regime has drafted and kept quality players at a higher rate than at any point in the post-free agency timeframe

I'm going to trust them to be able to continue doing so

[Brand J]

3 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

I don't see Carter, Strong or Williams being here even next year.  

Dorian Williams? He definitely will be. Carter probably gets cut at cutdown day and Strong retires. The OL also won’t be returning all 5 starters through 2029-2030. The two tackles are the only givens IMO.

[nuklz2594]

my concern is the obsession with small lbs.  220's is not cutting it.

[corta765]

1 minute ago, mushypeaches said:

File this under "who cares??"

 

Thinking about any roster 4 years into the future when the average NFL career lasts 3 years is a waste of time

The current regime has drafted and kept quality players at a higher rate than at any point in the post-free agency timeframe

I'm going to trust them to be able to continue doing so

This wasn't a slight. The post is actually more with just where we are looking good, average, and where we probably need work. Additionally it is nice to see where we have strength and youth.

6 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

I don't see Carter, Strong or Williams being here even next year.  

I haven't looked at the cap numbers but they generally try to keep guys who are cost controlled. Williams absolutely is going to be here as he knows the system and at worst is depth at best a starter. Strong who knows unfortunately due to injury. Carter wasn't bad last year and again small cap so he probably stays because of that.

[eball]

Dewayne Carter?  I think not.  I realize he's had injury issues but nothing about his play suggests he is a long-term fixture for the Bills.

 

 

[mjt328]

21 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Biggest issue with this is going to be the size of Allen's contract by 2029-30.  His cap hit for 29-30 is showing as 86 Million.

 

Keep pushing his cap hit out, until the day he retires and you are forced to start over.

Then you balance out his $150-200 million dead money by trading all the veteran assets left on the team for draft picks.

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

5 years from now I doubt we still have Cook (31), Dawkins (36), or Edwards (33).
 

Shakir maybe (32).

Josh will be 34 🫣🤯

 

Bernard may or may not hold up another 5 years. Benford definitely doesn't project to a gracefully aging CB. 
 

Also very much depends on who the coach/GM are in 5 years. 

 

[BearNorth]

11 minutes ago, nuklz2594 said:

my concern is the obsession with small lbs.  220's is not cutting it.

Average size of top 10 LB's is 235, only two of top 10 are size of Milano and Bernard.  Warner and Deablo both on IR.  Shaq Thompson currently grading in top 10, hopefully not injured too much longer.

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

I don't see Carter, Strong or Williams being here even next year.  

 

I love Williams. He brings a much needed element of suddenness and violence to this team, especially at the point of attack that they are lacking.  I could even see him filling in for Hoecht in that role if they don't find anyone else and have him and Solomon platooning with it.

Edited 6 hours ago by Big Turk

[corta765]

9 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

5 years from now I doubt we still have Cook (31), Dawkins (36), or Edwards (33).
 

Shakir maybe (32).

Josh will be 34 🫣🤯

 

Bernard may or may not hold up another 5 years. Benford definitely doesn't project to a gracefully aging CB. 
 

Also very much depends on who the coach/GM are in 5 years. 

 

Cook maybe yay or no, could be his last year. Offensive lineman though age far better then other spots. Dawkins also is a franchise staple and I doubt they cut him unless his play implodes.

[RyanC883]

this is an awesome exercise.  Thanks, @corta765.  

 

Here are my thoughts: 

 

Offense:

 

QB: Josh Allen (duh)

RB: James Cook

WR: Khalil Shakir  I don't know why, but I still think Coleman is a key part of the WR room, just not as a 1 or 2.  More like a solid WR 3 that can convert 3rd downs when needed.  

TE: Dalton Kincaid // Jackson Hawes

O-Line: Dawkins - Edwards- McGovern-Torrence- Brown.   I'm not sure Dawkins makes it to 2030, he'd be about 36 by then.  We need to draft an OT at some point in the future for continuity, that will also result in a lower overall cap by having a rookie OT.  This is not a necessary 2026 pick, but becomes more urgent around 2027.   

 

Defense:

 

DE: Greg Rousseau   I'd like to see Bosa resigned, although like Dawkins, if we are looking to 2030, he's likely not here.  Although DE can play till 36, so who knows.  

DT: Ed Oliver // Deone Walker // TJ Sanders // DeWayne Carter   Not sold on Sanders or Carter.  They have yet to show anything.  The hope is they are core contributors, but I'd say sanders more likely than Carter at this point.  

LB: Terrel Bernard // Dorian Williams  This one is interesting.  I think both these guys may still be here. But I can see the 2026 1st round pick being a LB who replaces Milano, putting Williams back as a backup.  This makes an interesting situation when his contract is up.  That said, I don't see Williams as a "cornerstone", but could be a great rotational piece.  Well, perhaps that is a cornerstone. 

CB: Christian Benford // Max Hariston // Dorian Strong   Unfortunately Strong is likely to not be here.  He will be replaced by whoever Bean pulls out of the 5th round CB grab-bag next year where he generally finds starter (but not star) talent.  Benford has been disappointing this year, he turns it around he is still here..  If not, he could be a future cut.  

SAF: Cole Bishop  I hope this is correct.  But Bishop has had one really good game, and some really bad ones.  Overall, just average ones.  I think safety will be a pick next year at some point to shore up next to him.  I'm optimistic this could look like Bishop/Hancock over the next 5 years.  

[The Frankish Reich]

2029-30? 4-5 years?

The answer: Josh Allen, unless he starts demanding to go elsewhere.

No one else on this team is likely to still be here. There is no one else on this team who we really should be invested in for that length of time.

[716to540]

I'll be retiring in 2029 after a 35 career in engineering. I expect to be available for the Bills roster then.