Waaaay tooooo eaaaarly - AFC playoff picture

[TheFunPolice]

Of course, this is an "at the moment" picture, but the way the NFL backloads division games a lot is going to change. 

 

Chiefs play the Broncos twice still

Colts play the Jaguars twice still 

Steelers and Ravens play twice still

Even the Bengals play the Ravens twice still and are only 2 wins out of a tie for the division lead

Patriots play the Ravens still in a "Bills win either way" game 

 

My point is that there are a lot of guaranteed losses coming up for AFC teams that will spread out the conference as it always does. That's why every year people say "an 11 win team might not make it!" and then a 9-8 team gets in. 

 

Someone has to lose the above games. 

 

Also, the Chiefs next 4 are Denver (coming out of a KC bye week and the first chance to get the taste of defeat out of their mouths), Colts, Cowboys, Texans. 

 

Chiefs could very easily be 9-4 after that. 

 

Lots of ball left, should be fun! Either way, the Bills will 100% be in the mix for the #1 seed, whereas KC and Baltimore most likely not, barring an unbelievable win streak. 

 

AFC East winner could be the #1 seed. I don't see Daniel Jones and Colts holding it together and there's no way the North or West winner has enough wins. 

 

 

 

 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I've been thinking about this a lot. Obviously, I want the Bills to be the #1 Seed and comfortably win every game including the Super Bowl. Every game counts.

 

Buuuuuut if you told me before the season that if there was an offer for fluky BS that would result in the Bills taking a Wild Card slot but the Ravens and Patriots missing the playoffs I would do it in a heartbeat.

 

With due respect to the Patriots, Broncos, Colts and Chargers who are playing excellent football right now, I know who I want as my QB and none of them have anyone like Josh never mind Mahomes or Lamar. I have a hard time imagining Daniel Jones of all people playing mistake free football in January.

3 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

The Chiefs obviously suck, Taylor Swift is writing a new song

" I came then you stopped"

 

Come on I didn't need to know that about Kelce

[Captain Hindsight]

59 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

The afc east could end up in a really weird spot where the division winner gets a significantly tougher first round matchup than whoever ends up being the wildcard

 

if you swap the jags out in that graphic for Baltimore or kc, would you rather be the bills or the pats?  Really interesting question 

The Pats* haven’t beaten anyone of note (Besides Buffalo) Atlanta is a decent win, but Maye has been taking a ton of sacks (34 this season) and the Pats have 11 turnovers. They are +0 in the TO right now, but their schedule has been remarkably easy

 

They are a good team, but they got a good Bucs team this week and a desperate Jets team after that and Cincy who is capable of huge games on offense. It’s more likely than not their young QB has a rough game here or there 

[strive_for_five_guy]

The win over KC yesterday was huge from a playoff seeding perspective.  We’d have to go 12-5 for KC to even have a chance to have a better record than us, and I do not see that Chiefs team winning out from here.  Even if they do, I think we have a solid chance to go at least 13-4, which we may need to do just to win the division.  
 

The fact that the Pats are still ahead of us for the division I think will force this team to be sharp every week the rest of the way.  If that happens and we can get past the Pats to win the division, I really think we’re setup well to also get the 1 seed.  All these other AFC teams have a ton of games against each other still and will be giving each other losses.

Edited 7 hours ago by strive_for_five_guy

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

The Pats* haven’t beaten anyone of note (Besides Buffalo) Atlanta is a decent win, but Maye has been taking a ton of sacks (34 this season) and the Pats have 11 turnovers. They are +0 in the TO right now, but their schedule has been remarkably easy

 

They are a good team, but they got a good Bucs team this week and a desperate Jets team after that and Cincy who is capable of huge games on offense. It’s more likely than not their young QB has a rough game here or there 

Oh yea I’m not saying the bills won’t win the division but I was curious how people felt about that hypothetical 

[boyst]

"I'd hate to have to travel to Indianapolis for a road playoff game" no one ever, circa 2025

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, boyst said:

"I'd hate to have to travel to Indianapolis for a road playoff game" no one ever, circa 2025

They really feel like they’re primed to be this year’s 2021 titans.  If they hang on to the 1 seed I can’t really see them winning in the divisional.  Not a gimme at all on paper but feels like about as easy as the second round of the playoffs realistically gets  

[boyst]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

They really feel like they’re primed to be this year’s 2021 titans.  If they hang on to the 1 seed I can’t really see them winning in the divisional.  Not a gimme at all on paper but feels like about as easy as the second round of the playoffs realistically gets  

Daniel jones will be exposed when he has to lead long drive bombs and it falls on his shoulders against high octane offenses. 

[harryS]

1 hour ago, Process said:

I mean the Bills are currently the favorites for the 1 seed. So being a wildcard isn't exactly a dream. But yea if we don't win the division this would be a pretty nice set up. 

 

Is there a market for this?  Or is that your opinion?

 

I would love to play around with a "Who will be the AFC 1-seed?" market.  Thanks in advance.

[Process]

2 minutes ago, harryS said:

 

Is there a market for this?  Or is that your opinion?

 

I would love to play around with a "Who will be the AFC 1-seed?" market.  Thanks in advance.

Yes on all the major online sportsbooks. The Bills are +130 on FD. 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

The afc east could end up in a really weird spot where the division winner gets a significantly tougher first round matchup than whoever ends up being the wildcard

 

if you swap the jags out in that graphic for Baltimore or kc, would you rather be the bills or the pats?  Really interesting question 

Mute point.  Colts won’t end up at 1.  Best chances for that are AFCE then AFCW then Colts.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Kinda funny that every team not on a bye at the top of ESPNs FPI ratings lost this week lol. Only one that didn’t lose was the eagles who were on bye.  The rest of the top 5 all lost 

[PonyBoy]

I looked at Pats upcoming schedule, hard not to see them not winning 11 games, maybe 12.

Little room for error by Bills to tie them. 

[harryS]

9 minutes ago, Process said:

Yes on all the major online sportsbooks. The Bills are +130 on FD. 

 

Thanks.

 

 

 

Interesting.  The best value here is probably the Broncos at 6.5 to 1

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

20 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Mute point.  Colts won’t end up at 1.  Best chances for that are AFCE then AFCW then Colts.

I wouldn’t say moot point quite yet but it’s fairly likely an afc east team gets the 1 seed yea..  bills still have a few sneaky games left and Pats who knows.  Colts schedule isn’t too bad they may be able to undeservedly hang onto it 

Edited 6 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

13 minutes ago, harryS said:

 

Thanks.

 

 

 

Interesting.  The best value here is probably the Broncos at 6.5 to 1

I morally couldn’t place the bet but I think it’s the pats for best value haha 

 

if they can sneak another one out against the bills at home (I think it’s unlikely but you never know) they can lose the Baltimore game and the rest of the schedule is smooth sailing. 
 

broncos are a bigger payday if it hits but they gotta play kc who’s been backed into a corner twice and GB who knows what their deal is.  Denver has looked great pretty bad in quite a few wins in a row now 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Buffalo03]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

It is too early but the Bills sitting at 5th right now.  There are hints of change in the AFC power structure. Included in that is that the Cheats* look like they are becoming the real deal. The Bills do not have a cupcake to improve their standings. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2025-nfl-playoff-picture-bracket-week-9-2025/

 

Crazy but if season were over today - Bills path is through Indy - I would actually like that path - indoors at Indy I think Cook runs through them like they were not even there.

The Patriots get the Buccaneers this week. Let's see what they do when they play a good team that doesn't hand it to them 3 times

[harryS]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I morally couldn’t place the bet but I think it’s the pats for best value haha 

 

if they can sneak another one out against the bills at home (I think it’s unlikely but you never know) they can lose the Baltimore game and the rest of the schedule is smooth sailing. 
 

broncos are a bigger payday if it hits but they gotta play kc who’s been backed into a corner twice and GB who knows what their deal is 
 

 

 

Well, the Pats are about to take their 3rd loss this week in Tampa, I think / hope.

 

I think you're right that the Bills/NE rematch will be huge.

[PatsFanNH]

1 minute ago, Buffalo03 said:

The Patriots get the Buccaneers this week. Let's see what they do when they play a good team that doesn't hand it to them 3 times

I don’t think Atlanta had a turnover? And the Pats if we played that game would still be 7-2 because they had 5 turnovers and still only lost by 7 to Pittsburg.  As for Tampa will be a tough game but they have a ton of injuries that will slow them down.. be interesting to see. Any TRUE Pats fan is just enjoying the ride right now, NO one expected this any rational person was thinking 9-8 or 10-7 at best. Right now I see them at 12-5 and a wildcard team. (Loses to Bills, Ravens and either Tampa or Bengals but not both) 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, harryS said:

 

Well, the Pats are about to take their 3rd loss this week in Tampa, I think / hope.

 

I think you're right that the Bills/NE rematch will be huge.

Yea I don’t think the betting market feels great about them either which means the value is there.  They’re an interesting case where even if they are just ok and lose a couple games, the rest of their schedule is so easy that if one of those losses isn’t Buffalo they could get the 1 seed anyway 

 

bills have the eagles still and a couple pretty good teams…if they lose the tiebreaker to NE somehow it’d be tough to catch them

 

i think the bills will probably get the 1 but +470 seems like good value for the situation the pats are in