Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[ganesh]

14 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

which comes to begging the question: When are they going to fix the defense so that the Chiefs are NOT up by two scores.

[T master]

15 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

That's why they brought back Gabe as a break window in case you need 4 TD's in 1 game . 🤣

[colin]

14 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Being 5th in YPA really doesn't matter when you're 15th (which is actually a little higher than I expected) in Passing.  

 

When you're 5th in Yards Per Attempt and 15th in Yards Passed, it's really hard to believe we're secretly an Elite Offense.

 

It's really simple. Teams know we want to run. When we're able to run even when they're prepared for it, we're in good shape. When they're well prepared to stop the run - we're nowhere.

 

that makes sense, but the data on the field doesn't bare it out in the bills case.  our O faltered vs atlanta and ne because we got caught having to drop back in obvious passing downs, and we were over 80% run from under center and over 80% pass from shotgun.  going back to the playoff game vs kc last season (where we had a lot of offensive production running, but a lot of it was josh taking it himself) we score quite easily in drives where we feature cook, and struggle to do so in drives where we don't.

 

i'd love to have an actual good wr on this team on the outside, but given we go to war with the army we have, not the army we'd like, i think we should put our best players out there and use misdirection and play action fakes out of an advantage run set to get our best results.

 

if we use our best guys and make the d guess, we can score a lot.  we did last year with basically the same set of sorry wrs

[Captain Hindsight]

15 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Can we cut with the facts and data and get back to pitchforks now?

[billsfan89]

The Bills offense has many good components. Josh is a top QB in the game, James Cook is a top 3-5 RB, the offensive line is a top 5 unit, Shakir is a very good slot WR, even Palmer and Samuel can be solid complementary WR pieces as could Keon if he's utilized differently, and the tight end trio is a good trio of TE's. But what the Bills lack is a truly good boundary WR that can break 1 v 1 coverage at least semi-consistently. 

 

If the Bills were to get a good boundary WR via trade that would be the last component the offense needs to be consistently better. If the Bills were to add Olave that would put Palmer in a position to more of a true WR2 along the boundary, it would allow Keon to be used more as a big slot WR4, it would open up the slot and underneath throws for Kincaid and Shakir, it would allow Samuel to be used more like a true gadget WR, and less boxes would be stacked against Cook and the RB's. 

 

Overall the offense is a good unit it just has one major flaw holding it back from being a top 5 unit in the NFL and the Bills have to figure out the WR position via trade. Shaeed or Olave from NOLA would be solid fits, Meyers from Vegas less so but still an improvement, BTJ a pipe dream, and a few other options out there. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

15 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

If you haven't watched Michael MacKelvie's stuff before, he just might be the most interesting sports content creator out there right now.
 
After watching this video, I checked the Bills rushing and passing per attempt, and while rushing at #2 (5.2 YPA) wasn't a total surprise, I was definitely shocked to see us at tied with Detroit #5 (8.0 YPA) in passing. Interesting there's only three teams inside the top 10 in both (Bills, Colts, Ravens), and only the Bills and Colts are in the top 5 in both. Every team except the Ravens in the top 10 passing YPA is in a playoff spot right now. On the top 10 rushing YPA, it's 40-60 (Bills, Colts, Broncos, Chargers) with the Panthers and Jags each on the edge.

McDermott has been  telling us for years that he wants to run the football, and Beane has been telling us for a couple years that he doesn't think we have a receiving issue. Is it possible they're actually on to something here?

 

People HATE this offense now and it’s understandable because it seems somewhat backwards when you have Josh Allen as your QB. The logical thing would be to maximize possessions. But I think during the inevitable KC playoff game, McDermott isn’t going to try and out-offense them this time (definition of insanity, right?) I think the Bills are going to try something new and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands via James Cook. Maybe we will get a glimpse of that during this game. 

Edited 7 hours ago by ChronicAndKnuckles

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

15 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

Why are you skeptical? Do people think Josh has forgot how to be an elite passer? He won an MVP with less talent last year. His first 2 years in the league he had it even worse. Now he has an elite running game to lean on which will make the downs & distances even more manageable. 

[BullBuchanan]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

It goes back to the same overall point. Our passing woes are not a result of simply not needing to pass. 

I guess the point is that some people on the internet think the Bills have "passing woes".

I don't. The data doesn't. Internet people do. 

11 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

Another case of stats do lie

 

Data can be manipulated to fit whatever agenda you wanna push

 

This passing game doesn't pass the eye test

"Eye tests" are about the least reliable way to measure anything. 100 people have 200 eyes and all of them lie.

Edited 6 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[Chaos]

6 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I guess the point is that some people on the internet think the Bills have "passing woes".

I don't. The data doesn't. Internet people do. 

"Eye tests" are about the least reliable way to measure anything. 100 people have 200 eyes and all of them lie.

If we stipulate the Bills have an elite offense.  How bad do you consider the defense losing to teams like the Pat's and Falcon's who together have no wins over top contenders and struggling for much of games against true bottom dwellers like the Dolphin's and Saints? 

[BullBuchanan]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I just don't see how you can look at the talent on the field from the pass catching room, the metrics of guys (not) getting open, and the metrics of (poor) separation, the results when our running game isn't unstoppable, and the simply point to some YPA metrics and think this is a "secretly elite offense".

 

Very good Running offense, sure. But that alone doesn't make an "Elite" offense. Our passing game, more specifically our WR'a, keep it from that.

I think you're also missing the point about what it means to be a "secretly elite" offense. You're hammering the team for not having an obviously visible elite passing offense. Things that the metrics you're pointing *might* be relevant to (though I'm not so sure about the correlation to WR separation and winning football games). |

What I'm trying to tell you, and I'm guessing you didn't watch the video based on your responses, is that the Bills aren't even trying to do what you're suggesting they're failing at. They are "secretly elite", because in spite of looking to some people like they're failing, they're not just succeeding, but at the top of the league. That makes it secret, because there's a chance everyone is actually fooled about how they're winning football games.

The running game has been traditionally elite, no doubt. Most people can see that. What folks aren't seeing however is just how successful the passing game has been so far. Is it perfect? No absolutely not. They've had a couple stumbles, but it's very early in the season. We've been heavily injured, and Josh hasn't been playing his best ball at times. We're still in very good shape, considering all of that, and there are a lot of reasons to think we're on the right track here if you take the data into account as well as the content int he video.

[Psautcsk]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I think you're also missing the point about what it means to be a "secretly elite" offense. You're hammering the team for not having an obviously visible elite passing offense. Things that the metrics you're pointing *might* be relevant to (though I'm not so sure about the correlation to WR separation and winning football games). |

What I'm trying to tell you, and I'm guessing you didn't watch the video based on your responses, is that the Bills aren't even trying to do what you're suggesting they're failing at. They are "secretly elite", because in spite of looking to some people like they're failing, they're not just succeeding, but at the top of the league. That makes it secret, because there's a chance everyone is actually fooled about how they're winning football games.

The running game has been traditionally elite, no doubt. Most people can see that. What folks aren't seeing however is just how successful the passing game has been so far. Is it perfect? No absolutely not. They've had a couple stumbles, but it's very early in the season. We've been heavily injured, and Josh hasn't been playing his best ball at times. We're still in very good shape, considering all of that, and there are a lot of reasons to think we're on the right track here if you take the data into account as well as the content int he video.

I am conflicted.

[billsfan89]

48 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

People HATE this offense now and it’s understandable because it seems somewhat backwards when you have Josh Allen as your QB. The logical thing would be to maximize possessions. But I think during the inevitable KC playoff game, McDermott isn’t going to try and out-offense them this time (definition of insanity, right?) I think the Bills are going to try something new and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands via James Cook. Maybe we will get a glimpse of that during this game. 

 

Clock control is also a very good strategy for playoff weather. The Bills from 2020-2022 were built much more like a drop back and pass team which makes sense when you have a great QB but also was not the best for beating more physical teams unless you want to win in a 50/50 shoot out. In 2023 after Joe Brady took over the team became a run first team or at least a team with a good conventional running game. That's been a better more sustainable way to win games. 

 

I think this year the Bills going into the off-season clearly felt like the offense was 90% where it needed to be. They replaced Cooper with Palmer and added in Hawes for Morris and mostly ran it back. Same Josh, Same RB's, Same O-line, 2 out of 3 TE's the same, and a good chunk of the WR's the same. Smaller to moderate changes around the edges. Defense has constantly failed against KC in the playoffs. The Bills put in their top 4 picks in the draft plus 3 out of their 4 biggest free agency signings on the defensive side of the ball. That's 7 significant additions to the defense. Much more churn on that side of the ball. 

 

My issue with the Bills passing offense is that defense can and will frequently stack the box with 8 defenders and sniff a safety over the top in the middle of the field to further clog things up in the slot. The defenses are then blitzing from the right and forcing Josh to hit WR's on the boundary 1 v 1. What defenses are "giving" the Bills are 1 v 1 matchups on the outside basically defenses feel that if they can clog the box and slot they can take away or limit the ground game and the Bills better receiving options. And while mid-level and lower defenses might struggle with taking away the ground game even with stacked boxes top 10 defenses likely won't. 

 

At some point defenses have and will force the Bills to throw to outside WR's and if Keon and Palmer can't win those matchups it is going to be a struggle for the offense. 

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

If we stipulate the Bills have an elite offense.  How bad do you consider the defense losing to teams like the Pat's and Falcon's who together have no wins over top contenders and struggling for much of games against true bottom dwellers like the Dolphin's and Saints? 

I think the defense played their first great game last week against the panthers. They had some great situational plays against the Ravens, but they've been annihilated by injuries. Based on what I saw from Hoecht and Hairston, I can see a scenario where there's a big turnaround there in a short amount of time.

I also don't discount the Patriots and Falcons like you do. The Pats have been on fire. They're 6-1 for a reason. They're well coached with a lot of young talent. They days of us walking all over them are absolutely over. The falcons have been playing tough all year. They played the Bucs to within 3, obliterated the Vikings, beat the Commanders. They have their own issues, so they aren't what you'd conventionally call "good", but they aren't a toothless team.

[billsfan89]

6 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I think the defense played their first great game last week against the panthers. They had some great situational plays against the Ravens, but they've been annihilated by injuries. Based on what I saw from Hoecht and Hairston, I can see a scenario where there's a big turnaround there in a short amount of time.

I also don't discount the Patriots and Falcons like you do. The Pats have been on fire. They're 6-1 for a reason. They're well coached with a lot of young talent. They days of us walking all over them are absolutely over. The falcons have been playing tough all year. They played the Bucs to within 3, obliterated the Vikings, beat the Commanders. They have their own issues, so they aren't what you'd conventionally call "good", but they aren't a toothless team.

 

Hairston and the PED Twins are a major shot in the arm to the defense. I even think Po while he's far from what he was splitting time with Handcock is better than whatever Rapp was doing. I think Po's vet presence also had a positive impact on Cole. I also think this team was truly hurting for a bye. Benford and Groot as well as a few others had those nagging week to week injuries that I think got helped by a week off. 

 

I think the defense likely is going to be much better even with the longer term loss of Oliver. Maybe even Sanders coming back from injury or a vet acquisition at the deadline either at safety or DT could help as well. But right now I think the bigger issue is can this team when forced to throw to boundary WR's on one v one matchups do that consistently? 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

I have a hard time believing that with the Keystone Kops coaching decisions that have been rolled out, we're about to see SWAT.

[Chaos]

25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I think the defense played their first great game last week against the panthers. They had some great situational plays against the Ravens, but they've been annihilated by injuries. Based on what I saw from Hoecht and Hairston, I can see a scenario where there's a big turnaround there in a short amount of time.

I also don't discount the Patriots and Falcons like you do. The Pats have been on fire. They're 6-1 for a reason. They're well coached with a lot of young talent. They days of us walking all over them are absolutely over. The falcons have been playing tough all year. They played the Bucs to within 3, obliterated the Vikings, beat the Commanders. They have their own issues, so they aren't what you'd conventionally call "good", but they aren't a toothless team.

I concur Hairston looked good.  Its hard to really measure a defense in total against an Andy Dalton led panthers team. I won't dismiss it out of hand.  But I am not sure it is compelling evidence of a turn around. Note: The Pats are 6-2, with losses to the Raiders and Steelers.  The only team they beat with a winning record is the Bills.  And its hard to say the Bills lost to a really good team, because they have one quality win, against the Bills. Its a bit circular.  Patriots have some interesting elements.  Their losses were early, and beating the Bills seems to have instilled some swagger in them.  But at this point the remain the the 13th pick in the betting odds to win it all, which is pretty much middle of the pack. 

[BullBuchanan]

11 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think the bigger issue is can this team when forced to throw to boundary WR's on one v one matchups do that consistently? 

Is that a thing that's done by anyone consistently? Does it correlate to winning games?

Whenever I've looked at pass distribution charts, deep throws to boundary WRs haven't been high-frequency areas. It's mostly where you take shots when you get 1-1 matchups, where you have broken plays, or if you have an unbelievable talent outside you may go for a couple shots there. 

These are all 5+ year old examples but everyone of them states you make your hay within 10 yards of the LOS and int he middle of the field. Once you get more than 10 yards down the field on the outside, success plummets. Is this a particular weakness of the Bills or is it a feature of the game? I can't even find any data to tell us how we're performing on the boundary compared to the rest of the league.

https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/where-s-the-best-spot-on-the-field-to-complete-passes-and-not-get-picked-off/
https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/evaluating-quarterback-efficiency-using-heatmap-plots-9e9a5b6342cd
https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2020-08-22-nfl-pass-location-visualization/

[BillsVet]

Buffalo currently is 31st strongest strength of schedule, so their offensive ranks aren't indicative of success as much as people believe especially with them being 7 games in.  

 

Still, a primary issue is the offense remains predicated on the defense slowing opponents and getting turnovers and being able to effectively run the ball.  When those elements break down, it's on Josh with that limited receiver group.  Against inferior competition, it'll work.  Not the ideal formula in the regular season.  Worse in the playoffs. 

 

It's how you end up in 3rd down 14 times and 4th down 6 times against KC in the AFC CG.  

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Didn't say it was a formula, just that you can win that way.

The 2012 Ravens aren't really a repeatable formula. They were just a well rounded decent team that rode an out of this world playoff run by Flacco to a SB. The comps there are probably the 9-7/10-6 Giants teams that beat Brady.

I just think the folks complaining about WR aren't being realistic. It's pretty clear to me that those folks aren't looking for a depth-type piece like Jacobi Meyers or Rasheed Shaheed. They make it sound like our WR room is in shambles, but one of those guys comes in and all of a sudden we're a SB contender? I don't buy it.

It's more like they want a top 10 type player like Chase, Nacua, jefferson, St. Brown, etc. That obviously isn't happening. IF we get even one WR they'll be somewhere between 25-50. That's a role player/depth guy. We've got a roster full of those guys already, so I don't think Beane's going to go out of his way to add another one.

One thing that MIGHT be possible is they look to upgrade the TE room since they seem like they really want to use them a lot. Maybe they finally go out and try to get Hockenson. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them try to upgrade RB2, since their entire philosophy is basically on Cook's shoulders right now and the dropoff is massive. Maybe Jordan Mason, Nick Chubb, or even Devin Singletary could be options there.

 

First of all........define "shambles".   This 2025 Bills WR corps was objectively bottom 5 in the NFL before the season and they've even disappointed by that low expectation.   It's possible that the only group that's worse are the Jets.   If being 31st is "shambles".......then yes, their WR corps is in shambles.   It sucks.  

 

Olave is currently 26th in ypg........he is certainly a WR1.   Shaheed also has an outside shot at finishing top 32.   These guys aren't Jefferson and or Chase but even one of them would raise the Bills receiving floor considerably.   Shaheed being the more likely to be dealt.......would provide a deep threat component that should complement the short game of Shakir.

 

I would argue that the 2021 Rams already repeated the 2012 Ravens.    

 

Those Rams were 8th in offense and 15th in defense.  Like the Ravens they were viewed as a disappointment for most of the season......but they scraped out a division title at the end.   Then they got hot in the playoffs.......caught the defending champ Bucs and Niners at the right time....escaping the NFC by the skin of their teeth.........and got Cincy in the SB instead of the Chiefs and stole a very closely contested SB win during the middle of the Chiefs dynasty.

 

That Rams team was perceived as having a limited window to win a championship.   They swung big adding OBJ and Von Miller in-season and those guys made MASSIVE contributions down the stretch and in the playoffs.  OBJ was particularly impactful in that SB.

 

These 2025 Bills are 6th in ppg defense and 7th in ppg offense.  I wouldn't say that is elite on either side of the ball.   But it is considerably higher than the rankings of those Rams or Ravens........and both higher than the average rank of teams that have won SB's since 2000.

 

Every 5-8 years a team that didn't seem championship worthy manages to steal one.   If the Bills don't upgrade this passing game that's probably the kind of odds they have, IMO.   The puncher's chance.  I think those odds increase if they improve the quality of passing game targets.

 

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

First of all........define "shambles".   This 2025 Bills WR corps was objectively bottom 5 in the NFL before the season and they've even disappointed by that low expectation.   It's possible that the only group that's worse are the Jets.   If being 31st is "shambles".......then yes, their WR corps is in shambles.   It sucks.  

 

Olave is currently 26th in ypg........he is certainly a WR1.   Shaheed also has an outside shot at finishing top 32.   These guys aren't Jefferson and or Chase but even one of them would raise the Bills receiving floor considerably.   Shaheed being the more likely to be dealt.......would provide a deep threat component that should complement the short game of Shakir.

Olave isn't happening. He's not for sale. If he was, how would you feel if they traded for him and 2 weeks later he was concussed again and out for the year? Would you give Beane credit for the try?

There's no legitimate talent available. You're looking at Shaheed (another injury prone player) who has never reached his potential, Meyers, or some other lesser talent. At absolute BEST, those guys take some snaps away from Coleman/Palmer, but they don't completely replace them in either 2 or 3 WR sets. There's no player available who is a clear step above what we have that we can afford.

Don't get your hopes up for next year either. If you're looking for an Olave-level player, that's at least 2 years out, if not more.

IF we make a trade, I expect it to be for a Safety, #2RB, or maybe some other spot on defense. Beane has been telling us all along that he likes who we have in our WR room and I believe him.

Edited 4 hours ago by BullBuchanan