Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[Success]

I'm going to irrationally believe that this is what they're doing.

 

[Sojourner]

42 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

If the defensive line plays like they did, specifically Hoecht and KC don’t have Trey Smith and Josh Simmons I can’t see them being up more than one score in this game. 

[Sierra Foothills]

44 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If you haven't watched Michael MacKelvie's stuff before, he just might be the most interesting sports content creator out there right now.
 
After watching this video, I checked the Bills rushing and passing per attempt, and while rushing at #2 (5.2 YPA) wasn't a total surprise, I was definitely shocked to see us at tied with Detroit #5 (8.0 YPA) in passing. Interesting there's only three teams inside the top 10 in both (Bills, Colts, Ravens), and only the Bills and Colts are in the top 5 in both. Every team except the Ravens in the top 10 passing YPA is in a playoff spot right now. On the top 10 rushing YPA, it's 40-60 (Bills, Colts, Broncos, Chargers) with the Panthers and Jags each on the edge.

McDermott has been  telling us for years that he wants to run the football, and Beane has been telling us for a couple years that he doesn't think we have a receiving issue. Is it possible they're actually on to something here?

 

 

Bull, you're either one of us or you're not.

 

Whatever you decide, I know you well enough to believe that you'll do the honorable thing...

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, Dick_Cheney said:

As much of a data guy as I am, sorry, we're just not a threat through the air. I'm sure the numbers can be presented in some kind of a way that might look effective or successful, but that's just not an accurate representation of what's actually happened on the field time and time again. 

 

Not to mention the plays that aren't even being schemed/attempted since, you know, we don't have anyone who can pull them off. 

Again, there's that line. Who says we need to be a "threat through the air" to be successful and win a championship?

We've had elite passing offenses here in the past and where has that gotten us?

The data shows we've been highly effective through the air AND on the ground. We have a balanced, 2-dimensional approach, which most coaches say is exactly what they want. Some folks here are hung up on us needing to be some high flying offense, but history is littered with dozens of those that fell terribly short of greatness int he postseason. Why keep doing that when history tells you that's not the way to win it all?

[ScottishBills]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

There's no such thing as "high leverage moments" in September and October.

 

I get why people insist on saying this but the reality is its nonsense for the Bills anyway (maybe not for Chiefs and Eagles who see a lot of Superbowls)

 

1 seeds, division winner etc - let's be honest it's going to be decided on 1 game - maybe in the Bills favour, maybe not. But it will be 1 game. And the ones now are worth just as much as the ones in December. Competent passing offence sees 7-0 or 6-1 right now - ahead of the harder schedule. And a solid path to the 1 seed. 

 

We have a shambles of a record on the road under post season McD, so home advantage is almost a must. And we have an injury prone roster who need the week off. 

 

Lastly, even if it was unimportant, it's quite the stretch to just say "I'm sure the Bills will just turn it on when needed in the playoffs." 

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Correct

 

Put it this way- if you have fewer attempts AND lower ypa you are truly ***** passing wise

They have one less attempt than the Detroit Lions. If you'd like to argue their passing game is ***** too, that would be fun to watch.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They have one less attempt than the Detroit Lions. If you'd like to argue their passing game is ***** too, that would be fun to watch.

Take a breath lol

 

I'm agreeing w the premise, I don't think there's anything wrong w the offense that isn't by design

[Dick_Cheney]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

Again, there's that line. Who says we need to be a "threat through the air" to be successful and win a championship?

We've had elite passing offenses here in the past and where has that gotten us?

The data shows we've been highly effective through the air AND on the ground. We have a balanced, 2-dimensional approach, which most coaches say is exactly what they want. Some folks here are hung up on us needing to be some high flying offense, but history is littered with dozens of those that fell terribly short of greatness int he postseason. Why keep doing that when history tells you that's not the way to win it all?

 

I'm not saying we need to be a high flying offense. Balance is great, but is just that, balance. I'm saying we should take every opportunity we can to get better, and that includes bringing in a WR. If we're gonna focus so much on the data, make sure to include how god awful Keon's metrics are for this season. 

 

If you want us to keep draft picks and stay where we're at, that's great. I strongly disagree with that approach in regards to both the offense and the defense, and I don't think next year is going to be any easier than the current path we have right now and how the league also seems to be shaking out, let alone our own division. 

 

I guess my point is I just really don't get the argument of "We won't benefit from a new WR," which it sure seems is what you are saying. 

[PayDaBill$]

45 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Can we cut with the facts and data and get back to pitchforks now?

Exactly.  I’ve never seen so much bullshite!

[NewEra]

53 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

I’m skeptical it’s possible without James Palmer on the field.  Maybe they’ve been withholding their Moore and Samuel plays?  They’ve certainly stopped throwing to the RBs (which is my biggest issue with Brady this season).  Time to unleash Kincaid

[BillsFanForever19]

[NewEra]

Great post @BullBuchanan.  Thanks for sharing.

 

I think we can win a SB with this offense as long as our defense can play complimentary football, aka get timely stops, sakcs and turnovers.  I have my doubts that we can do that vs KC in the playoffs, but it’s possible. 

 

i do think that adding an outside WR would improve our offense and force teams to back up off the short stuff/the run.  While I understand people not having any hope in Palmer, Moore and Samuel…. I have still have hope that they can make plays when needed.  Just have to stay healthy and have the OC put them in position to succeed

[YoloinOhio]

Ive said for a couple of years that the bills look like the new version of the snowball Brady Patriots meaning they dink and dunk down the field and run the ball on you and beat you with 1 million paper cuts. Versus a few big plays. And there is no clear cut WR1 the defense can take away aka everybody eats. It may work we will see. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

was definitely shocked to see us at tied with Detroit #5 (8.0 YPA) in passing.

 

YPA on its own is a not a good ranking metric. It doesn't factor in sacks, TDs, or INTs. ANY/A is the gold standard. Allen's ANY/A is ranked 9th at 7.27. Goff is 6th at 8.00. 9th is pretty good of course but top 10 should be the bare minimum standard with Allen at QB.

 

Nobody has any confidence that in situations where we need to pass the ball to win we could do it. We're 1 for 3 in that scenario this year. If we get to face the ghost of Jaire Alexander then we have a shot. If not it's extremely dicey at best.

[Nihilarian]

What gets to me is that so many on this board were clamoring for Buffalo to sign DK Metcalf and were in such dismay after they didn't. There was the cap reason why the bills couldn't match what Pittsburgh offered. 30 million a year?

 

Currently, the Steelers have DK Metcalf as their leading receiver, and yet are in talks with obtaining Jakobi Meyers from the Raiders. This confuses me as they had George Pitkins on their roster in 2024, and they traded him away? Apparently, DK now isn't enough...why?

 

Buffalo Bills fans are still clamoring for that #1 WR who can separate, and yet they were the #2 scoring offense in 2024. The #1 team, including the playoffs. Buffalo had that in Diggs, and it didn't matter.

 

My take is OC Joe Brady needs to get his head out of his posterior and devise a better passing scheme like Brian Daboll used in Buffalo; perhaps he will.

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

Being 5th in YPA really doesn't matter when you're 15th (which is actually a little higher than I expected) in Passing.  

 

When you're 5th in Yards Per Attempt and 15th in Yards Passed, it's really hard to believe we're secretly an Elite Offense.

 

It's really simple. Teams know we want to run. When we're able to run even when they're prepared for it, we're in good shape. When they're well prepared to stop the run - we're nowhere.

Edited 13 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Low attempts, Id imagine? Skews it a bit. Just a guess. 

 

 

Josh's completion percentage is higher than it's been since 2020. And shorter passes will tend to do that.

[dorquemada]

So double top secret nobody will ever know.  It’ll be the Da’Rick of offensive schemes 

[RobbRiddick]

I was wondering whether they were saving a LOT for the playoffs. But that might just be me being unusually optimistic 

[Billsfed1]

It’s a top offense statistically, whether ppl want to believe it or not lol.  Doesn’t have to be flashy, just has to be effective