This might be why Bills fan's are concerned despite the Bills 5-2 record. There will be math.

[Dukestreetking]

Sorry, another reply.

 

I'm familiar w this statistical analysis bc, overseas, we had many--smart people all--working to analyze the highest kinetic threats we should go after.

 

Generally speaking, they used Complex Adaptive Systems as a base model, w statistical overlays, including page rank, though admittedly it was not fully comprehensible to me, and my particular group, bc we were just were dumb-ass mouth-breathers.

 

I fully realize that the NFL, with recognizable rules, is not the same as modeling bad guys w (often) stochastic behaviors.

 

But the results, w geniuses and every NTM available, and $billions, were... not quite as we had hoped.

 

So, I guess, given the much stricter set of variables in the present NFL case, what are the identifiable weaknesses in these calculations? 

 

I only ask to understand how to assess this modelling w greater precision.

 

[uninja]

2 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

Bills will be fine. 

Roster starting to get healthy at the right time. 

Most of the pieces are back and the rest are on the way. 

Losing Oliver is not that big a deal.  

 

I'll give you maybe 2 out of 3. Losing Oliver is a big deal

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Dukestreetking said:

Many thanks for this. I'm a little bit familiar w the model; very interesting.

 

But why is KC listed as 6-2?

this undermines the entire analysis. good catch. I am completely re-reviewing 

[Brand J]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Just kind of a moving forward thing because I see it over and over again, Our GMs last name is BEANE with an E at the end.

 

If you're going to roast him at the very least spell his name right.  

I get the same ick from Joe Marino continuously mispronouncing “Ogunjobi.”

[PatsFanNH]

4 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Worth noting, Ravens wouldn’t be 2-5 if Lamar had played in every game.

Really? They only had 1 win before he went down injured. Their D is one of the worst D in the NFL. 

[Gregg]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Really? They only had 1 win before he went down injured. Their D is one of the worst D in the NFL. 

 

That is because of the injuries. Healthy they have one of the best rosters in football. They don't have much depth as we are seeing since injuries are killing their season.

Edited yesterday at 08:33 PM by Gregg

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

You can only play who is on the schedule.

 

It's not the Bills' fault those other teams are dogwater. 

 

 

 

Bruffalo, I’m in agreement as schedules are determined years in advance.  I think most people on this board know that.

 

This year we get again as many know the NFCS, and AFCN.  We also play a 1st place schedule for the other two AFC opponents, meaning the AFCW, and AFCS.  We can’t determine that.  Their 13 wins and division title determines it, and it’s a rotating. NFC #1 seed each year so this year we get the Eagles.  You know the SB champs.

 

We still have the Texans, Chiefs, Bucs, a much better Patriots team and they will all be battles.

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

The cat clearly did not account for the give in the hay bale.  If he had been on something solid, would have made it.

 

Agreed. His launch pad had too much give.

 

51 minutes ago, Chaos said:

this undermines the entire analysis. good catch. I am completely re-reviewing 

 

As long as this has morphed into a pet peeve topic, your post reminds me that NFL officials after a replay review still insist on saying "after further review" when they should more properly say, "after review."

 

I feel better now... thanks!

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

28 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Really? They only had 1 win before he went down injured. Their D is one of the worst D in the NFL. 

Yes.  The Ravens were 1-2 including a loss to the NFC favorite Detroit Lions when Lamar went down against the Chiefs.  At 1-3, their three losses were against the top three Super Bowl favorites in the whole league.  

 

 

[FLFan]

4 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Worth noting, Ravens wouldn’t be 2-5 if Lamar had played in every game.

In week 1 when the Bills beat the Ravens, the Ravens were a very popular favorite to win the Super Bowl.  

[SoTier]

OP, since you feel the need to instruct Bills fans in math, it's only fair that I instruct you in English grammar.

 

Apostrophes (') are used to show possession or to make a contraction.  They are never used to make nouns plural.   

1. If you are talking about 2 or more people who cheer for the Bills team, you are talking about fans.  A Water Buffalo hat that belongs to a Bills fan is a fan's hat.  Two Water Buffalo hats that belong to 2 Bills fans are fans' hats.
2. If you want to combine two words to make one word or a long word into a shorter one, you use an apostrophe:  was not = wasn't   or   cannot = can't.

You have other grammatical errors, but I picked the lowest hanging fruit because you should have mastered apostrophes back in grammar school.

 

PS:  I don't think most Bills fans are particularly concerned about the Bills despite their 5-2 record because of your model.   I think that they're (they are) concerned about less esoteric things, like losing two games in a row before the bye to the Patriots and the Falcons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 09:12 PM by SoTier

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

this undermines the entire analysis. good catch. I am completely re-reviewing 

Revised Analysis. I think all the calculations and underlying data are correct now. 

Regarding the Giants ranking here is the explanation:

 

New York Giants (Converged PageRank: 0.0511)

Despite a 2-6 record, the New York Giants achieved a relatively high PageRank. This is primarily due to their victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the highest-ranked team in the analysis. Since the Eagles only have 2 losses, a significant portion of their high PageRank value is transferred to the Giants.

Contributions from defeated teams: | Defeated Team | Opponent PR (from analysis) | Opponent Losses (L) | Total Contribution (PR/L) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.0771 | 2 | 0.03855000 | | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.0482 | 3 | 0.01606667 |

Calculation Summary: A. Sum of Contributions (Σ [PR/L]): 0.05461667 B. d * Sum (0.85 * A): 0.04642417 C. Base Rank: 0.00468750 Total PageRank (B + C): 0.05111167 (Rounds to 0.0511)

Two high quality wins beats 5 low quality wins.  While not an intuitive result, it is not as crazy as it seems.  It suggest that Giants have demonstrated they might beat anyone in the league.  While the Bills have only demontrated they can beat teams in the bottom 1/3.  If the Bills beat the Chiefs, this weekend , i think that will cause a significant upward movement. If the Raven's win tonight, that would favorably impact the Bills ranking. iff t

[Marv Levy]

"Huh, huh, math sucks, huh huh!"

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, SoTier said:

OP, since you feel the need to instruct Bills fans in math, it's only fair that I instruct you in English grammar.

 

Apostrophes (') are used to show possession or to make a contraction.  They are never used to make nouns plural.   

1. If you are talking about 2 or more people who cheer for the Bills team, you are talking about fans.  A Water Buffalo hat that belongs to a Bills fan is a fan's hat.  Two Water Buffalo hats that belong to 2 Bills fans are fans' hats.
2. If you want to combine two words to make one word or a long word into a shorter one, you use an apostrophe:  was not = wasn't   or   cannot = can't.

You have other grammatical errors, but I picked the lowest hanging fruit because you should have mastered apostrophes back in grammar school.

 

PS:  I don't think most Bills fans are particularly concerned about the Bills despite their 5-2 record because of your model.   I think that they're (they are) concerned about less esoteric things, like losing two games in a row before the bye to the Patriots and the Falcons.

 

 

Hear, hear. People who favour math often like to think of themselves as smarter than people who can use language properly. They are not. 

[GoBills808]

Trying to correct grammar w the big edit flag at the bottom is such a tough look lol

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hear, hear. People who favour math often like to think of themselves as smarter than people who can use language properly. They are not. 

if you think that second clause in the post you quoted is an example of using language properly I have some bad news for you

[SC STATE NUPE]

And the great things is that they haven’t played their best football yet. It’s all about how strong you’re playing in the end.

[Chaos]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

if you think that second clause in the post you quoted is an example of using language properly I have some bad news for you

250 years later, they still don't realize they lost the battle to own the language. 

[BVBILLS]

A big win this weekend will change those stats

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

250 years later, they still don't realize they lost the battle to own the language. 

I don't care how much English you think you know, correcting grammar on a message board is the height of dbaggery