Do we have to make a choice between effectively running the ball or getting more pass production?

[AKC]

Listening to Josh post Panthers seems to reinforce what it looks like on the field- Josh prefers to pass from shotgun but our running O is better under center. Josh talked about his drops from under center and his lack of trust of his feet being the major problem for him Sunday. Statistically in 25 Josh has a PR of 109.7 from shotgun and that drops to 89.3 under center. On the other hand James Cook is gaining over 5 YPC under center while dropping below 4 from shotgun. Curiously EPA stats suggest in the Panthers game the opposite was true- they have us more effective running from shotgun and more effective passing from under center. I have to presume the successful pitches from shotgun with long gains skew that in favor of shotgun, while the season long stats tell the story differently. 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, AKC said:

Listening to Josh post Panthers seems to reinforce what it looks like on the field- Josh prefers to pass from shotgun but our running O is better under center. Josh talked about his drops from under center and his lack of trust of his feet being the major problem for him Sunday. Statistically in 25 Josh has a PR of 109.7 from shotgun and that drops to 89.3 under center. On the other hand James Cook is gaining over 5 YPC under center while dropping below 4 from shotgun. Curiously EPA stats suggest in the Panthers game the opposite was true- they have us more effective running from shotgun and more effective passing from under center. I have to presume the successful pitches from shotgun with long gains skew that in favor of shotgun, while the season long stats tell the story differently. 

Great observation, I think this was partially why the pistol was invented. Sort of meets in the middle. Falcons run it more than anybody. 

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Mikie2times

[ColoradoBills]

43 minutes ago, AKC said:

Listening to Josh post Panthers seems to reinforce what it looks like on the field- Josh prefers to pass from shotgun but our running O is better under center. Josh talked about his drops from under center and his lack of trust of his feet being the major problem for him Sunday. Statistically in 25 Josh has a PR of 109.7 from shotgun and that drops to 89.3 under center. On the other hand James Cook is gaining over 5 YPC under center while dropping below 4 from shotgun. Curiously EPA stats suggest in the Panthers game the opposite was true- they have us more effective running from shotgun and more effective passing from under center. I have to presume the successful pitches from shotgun with long gains skew that in favor of shotgun, while the season long stats tell the story differently. 

 

Let's hope Josh can improve on his "under center" passing numbers.  Having multiple schemes is always better.

It seems to me that defenses would have a hard time defending if all 4 possibilities could be effective.

[reddogblitz]

33 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Let's hope Josh can improve on his "under center" passing numbers.  Having multiple schemes is always better.

It seems to me that defenses would have a hard time defending if all 4 possibilities could be effective.

 

Yeah, the take away from this for me is Josh needs to practice throwing from under center more.

[GroteStreet]

Passing from under center is a basic quarterbacking skill.  

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

No, because if you don't want to choose between running the ball or passing it, you always have the option to punt it.

[co_springs_billsfan]

This should not be a thing in year 8

[Big Blitz]

Mahomes last year was 123 passer rating under center and 89 in shotgun.  

[AKC]

21 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Mahomes last year was 123 passer rating under center and 89 in shotgun.  

And Hunt's 3.9 YPC avg didn't change from under center to shotgun. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, GroteStreet said:

Passing from under center is a basic quarterbacking skill.  

Not today.  

 

Three anecdotal observations:

 

1) Down here in Cincy they're having a discussion about why Burrow must "learn" to play under center more. Evidently he wants to take the vast majority of the snaps from shotgun.

 

2) Watch a Saturday's worth of college football and tell me how many snaps are in shotgun versus under center.

 

3) My grandsons 7th grade team had their very good QB take about 95% of the snaps from the shotgun. Ditto for every team they played but one.  

 

 

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, GroteStreet said:

Passing from under center is a basic quarterbacking skill.  

just for reference, he’s still like a basic good starting nfl quarterback under center. 
 

A 90 qb rating isn’t terrible 

 

also, some of the gap could just be situational trends - TD passes coming out of shotgun because we skew that way from the 5 to 15 yard line? Who knows. Vis versa it could be much worse of a skew situationally 

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Not today.  

 

Three anecdotal observations:

 

1) Down here in Cincy they're having a discussion about why Burrow must "learn" to play under center more. Evidently he wants to take the vast majority of the snaps from shotgun.

 

2) Watch a Saturday's worth of college football and tell me how many snaps are in shotgun versus under center.

 

3) My grandsons 7th grade team had their very good QB take about 95% of the snaps from the shotgun. Ditto for every team they played but one.  

 

 

And that's why most college quarterbacks never adjust to the NFL game because it's a complete shotgun spread in college 

 

You can count on two hands the amount of teams that are playing pro style football under center consistently 

 

It's a massive learning curve to the NFL.. even when you went three or four wide 25 years ago in the NFL a lot of teams were doing it under center not shotgun

 

I can't believe a 7th grade team is going heavy shotgun? Are they throwing the ball consistently or just read options 

Edited 4 hours ago by Buffalo716

[vincec]

5 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Great observation, I think this was partially why the pistol was invented. Sort of meets in the middle. Falcons run it more than anybody. 

 

 

Not a big fan of the pistol, personally. Sure, it may be better for running the ball than shotgun but I don’t think you get anywhere near the benefit in the running game as when the QB is under center.

[SCBills]

1) Bills want to run heavy personnel but their best receiving TE is a mid blocker and gets hurt all the time.  So we get more Knox, Hawes and Gilliam. 
 

2) Palmer and Josh trying to find chemistry early and then he gets hurt. 
 

3) Keon hasn’t made a jump and, currently, seems to be bordering on unplayable. 
 

4). Josh is off.  Lack of WR trust and Brady’s Offense is too predictable in Year 2. 
 

This team, with this OL, this QB and this running game should be an absolute Offensive wagon.. but for the reasons above, they are a mess in the pass game. 
 

You can be great at both if you hit on personnel .. but it’s seems like we’ve hit on the personnel to run the ball well, and missed on the personnel to take advantage of that in the passing game.  Exacerbated by Brady’s predictable concepts/play calling and inability to scheme guys open and get anything out of Moore or Samuel (also Moore gets open here and there and Josh misses him).  
 

The goal was to have a nasty run game with big physical WR’s and heavy personnel with TE’s that can block and make plays in the passing game.  
 

We have a nasty run game with a big WR who can’t get open, another who’s hurt and a TE who is utilized as a big WR when he’s not injured.  
 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by SCBills

[AKC]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Mahomes last year was 123 passer rating under center and 89 in shotgun.  

It brings up the question of play action effectiveness. At least the raw stat says the Frogman looks to have excelled on PA dropbacks.

[Jimmy Harris 69]

This trend won’t last. Do I construct an offense which gives my best player, the greatest chance of success? Or do I create one that makes said star —less effective? Get your head right Brady. 

[vincec]

39 minutes ago, Jimmy Harris 69 said:

This trend won’t last. Do I construct an offense which gives my best player, the greatest chance of success? Or do I create one that makes said star —less effective? Get your head right Brady. 

If you think the Bills are going to build a pass first offense around Josh Allen then you weren’t watching what happened when Daboll and Dorsey were here. This offense is one big, physical #1 WR away from being exactly what McDermott wants.

Edited 2 hours ago by vincec

[Doc Brown]

Nearly identical to last year when he had a passer rating of 110.1 from shotgun and 83.6 under center.    However, with play action he had a 108.4 passer rating.  

 

MORE PLAY ACTION

Edited 2 hours ago by Doc Brown

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Nearly identical to last year when he had a passer rating of 110.1 from shotgun and 83.6 under center.    However, with play action he had a 108.4 passer rating.  

 

MORE PLAY ACTION

First offensive play on Sunday the Bills should go play action.  Then, assuming they connect for a first down, do the same on the next play.  I predict KC will come out super focused on stopping the run given the Bills last game, so good chance to get the off-guard a little bit early and keep them honest throughout the game.  Don’t do any run plays until getting KC off-guard.