All 22 Review: Bills vs Patriots

[colin]

2 hours ago, mbowman14 said:

That is 100% the point and is not second-guessing because it was called for last week.  Getting NE into heavy personnel and taking advantage of them with PA was the way to attack out of the gate.  Get them behind and force them to play a game of catchup all night long.  The Bills came out with a pathetic plan including Knox jet-sweep and a flea-flicker that was nearly disastrous.  That is the stuff you try when Tyrod Taylor is your QB and you don't think you can beat the opponent with your conventional offense.  NE couldn't and wouldn't have covered Kincaid all night because they don't have the personnel to handle him.  Stop being cute and play to your strengths/the opponent's weaknesses.  A few throws early would have greatly opened up lanes for Cook as LBs and S would be thinking PA first.  Very frustrating plan from Brady.

 

the only answer anyone has found vs our jumbo set was a psycho big front miami had against us, and really we shoulda passed instead of run it against that.

a couple passes to cook and ty out of that formation would have extended our drives and broken up the 3 and out middle of the game streak we had, and we'd have walked away early.

 

brady needs "if it ain't broke don't fix it" tattooed on the back of his eyelids.

[BillsShredder83]

21 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Going to give these a shot.  Likely not going to get too far into the weeds on it because it takes a lifetime to watch these things, but its helpful from a fan perspective to get an idea of the nuts and bolts.   I'll start with the offense and go by half.    If I have time I'll add the defense later on.    

 

1st Half Summary- Blame it on the coordinator

I think it's often too easy to blame coordinators for bad football, especially if you haven't watched the game tape to get a real understanding of what prompted certain calls.   That said, in the 1st half the Bills were essentially running the throw stuff at the wall and see if it sticks scheme.  The personnel groupings and formations were all over the place.  They tried everything from 10 personnel with 4 wide and trips, to 21 and 22 personnel with bunch formations, often using one wideout.   It was like Joe Brady was trying to reinvent the wheel of high school play calling.   Brady came into the game knowing the Patriots run a heavily man-based defense, and most of what they were trying to do was win outside the hashes with wideouts who can't beat man coverage.    The game plan in the first half was lazy, and akin to a coach deciding to watch zero tape of the opposing defense.   

 

Notes:

Its man defense- where are the crossers, digs, and slants?  

Multiple instances of wideouts and tight ends running short of the sticks

Need to start running more out of the shotgun

 

2nd Half Summary- Blame it on the Quarterback

The Bills were in 11 personnel around 25% of the time in the first half.   In the second half they stopped getting cute and ran 11 personnel 72% of the time.    On top of that they finally ran a crossing route!  A lot has been made about the wideouts being bad in this offense.  While they aren't speed demons who can split two high safety or win on go routes, they can produce when asked to do what they do well.    That said, the QB needs to be who he was in the first four games and take what the defense gives him.   Sadly, that's not the QB the Bills got in the second half.  While he was more productive, the All 22 showed he was dead set on doing what he wanted rather than taking what was there.

 

Have screenshots of the plays below but no clue how to post.  

 

5:17 Left 3rd Quarter- Kincaid absolutely smokes the safety at the same time Josh tries the back shoulder to  Shavers.  If he waits a second longer, he likely has Kincaid for 6.

 

11:18 Left 4th Quarter- Crossing route is wide open to Knox.  Josh comes off the read.

 

5:11 Left 4th Quarter- Josh doesnt take the easy outbreaking route to Kincaid.  Instead he throws to Cook on the sideline covered and is lucky to get a PI.

 

5:01 Left 4th Quarter- This one is on Samuel- Call looks to be a Go or a Post.   Corner drops off 10 yards.  Instead of breaking off his route to a out or comeback Samuel keeps running towards the CB.  Would have been an easy 6-yard gain plus space to run.

 

4:52 Left 4th- Josh doesnt take the open crosser to Coleman.  Cook doesnt block free rusher.  Sack

 

2:43 Left 4th- Josh has Cook wide open on the crosser, doesnt take it for an easy 5 yard gain.  Also has Palmer on an outbreaking route for 7 or more. Scrambles, has Knox open coming back towards the hash for a 17 yard pass, doesnt take it.  Launches a pass across the field to Coleman in the back of the endzone.   Out of bounds.

 

2:31 Left 4th- Shakir and Kincaid immediately open on crosser short of sticks.   Johnson has single coverage on a wheel route to the endzone-why isnt Cook in the game!  Samuel wide open at the front of opposite side of the endzone- likely an impossible throw.

 

 

Game Summary- The good news is the Bills beat themselves.  I am not sure what Joe Brady was doing in the first half of the game.  I am also not sure what Josh Allen was doing in the 2nd half.   The Bills need another outside WR, but they arent as hapless there as I thought before I watched the film.   Put this one away, dont shoot yourself in the foot next time you play the Pats.   The Patriots didnt do anything great on defense.  I have every expectation that Allen wont play like this in the second meeting.  

 

Player Grades

 

Bull Market

The Offensive Line- They lost a few reps but otherwise they were fantastic.  Specifically, the left side of the line played very well

 

Kincaid- He had a great night and it would have been even better if he played more reps.  I dont care if its as a slot, outside WR, or either tight end position, he needs to be in the game unless he's injured or needs a breather.   His blocking still leaves a little to be desired.  But outside of Cook or Allen he is the best weapon the Bills have on offense.  

 

Better than I Expected

Dawson Knox- Not flashy but he did his job.   He was open when he needed to be, whether the QB saw him or not.   

 

Josh Palmer- Not a game breaker by any means but he is the best outside receiver the Bills have in terms of understanding leverage and route running.   Needs to be on the field more. 

 

Bear Market

Keon Coleman- He caught a touchdown but the tape isn't good.   He flat out can't beat corners off the line in man coverage.   The coordinator doesn't put him in advantageous positions.     Much better in the second half because Brady finally started calling crossing routes.  But he is a very limited player at this point in his career.  

 

Shavers- Not to dunk on a kid that barely made the team but for those of you waiting for him to be the savior at WR, stop.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you (or anyone else here) notice if hes taken any snaps out of the slot at all?

 

Would love to see some sets where Keon moves in slot.... he can spell Shakir here and there, or line up with 4 WR, both Shakir & Keon in the slot.

This feels like it could be especially lethal if we can swing a trade for a real outside WR.

 

Keon feels like a few guys we've had in here recently.  Brutal and hated as a #1/#2, very nice surprise and better contributing as a #4.  Dude needs to be easier to get the ball to, vs a teams lower tiered CB, but getting the ball in space, already on the move where he can crank up to his top-end speed and physicality after the run.  Its so easy right now to remember him as being slow... but its really an acceleration/suddenness problem.  While it takes him a while to get there, he looks fast af once hes had time to get to speed. It really frustrates me to not be able to play into that strength of his.

 

Maybe a thunder/lightning duo in the slot could be really fun.  I dunno.  *Sigh*

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

 

Did you (or anyone else here) notice if hes taken any snaps out of the slot at all?

 

Would love to see some sets where Keon moves in slot.... he can spell Shakir here and there, or line up with 4 WR, both Shakir & Keon in the slot.

This feels like it could be especially lethal if we can swing a trade for a real outside WR.

 

Keon feels like a few guys we've had in here recently.  Brutal and hated as a #1/#2, very nice surprise and better contributing as a #4.  Dude needs to be easier to get the ball to, vs a teams lower tiered CB, but getting the ball in space, already on the move where he can crank up to his top-end speed and physicality after the run.  Its so easy right now to remember him as being slow... but its really an acceleration/suddenness problem.  While it takes him a while to get there, he looks fast af once hes had time to get to speed. It really frustrates me to not be able to play into that strength of his.

 

Maybe a thunder/lightning duo in the slot could be really fun.  I dunno.  *Sigh*

he's getting a little over 10% of his snaps from the slot

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

I'm not certain where the confusion is coming in here... Passing more against stacked boxes is not advocating for over the top 2 play drives. It's taking advantage of what they have earned. They have earned the matchups, especially in the slot where they can get Kincaid or a WR on a LB... It's a tweak to get keep the chains moving and to keep teams off balance and fits in perfectly with what they already do. They just don't do it enough. Too many 1st and 2nd down runs against stacked boxes when you can take the mismatch for an easy 7-10 yard gain... It disallows teams to load up and guess right. Like I said... It's a tweak...Not a philosophy change...

I'm not criticizing.  My point was that a more aggressive offense attacking a stacked box should result in some big plays and 2 or 3 play TD drives.  And from what I can tell McD wants to stretch offensive drives out, not shorten them.

[chris heff]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

I fully agree with you.  Looking at the All 22 actually helped me get a better understanding that the Bills probably should have won the game.  I am less worried about the second matchup after watching it. 

 

Agree with you on the 10 personnel.  But I think going more 11 in the 2nd half is what helped the passing game get started. 

I may end up being wrong, but I think the coaching staff is trying to figure out which player they want to start full time in that role.    If Moore can take that role Samuel would be expendable in a trade. 

I don’t think Samuel is tradable due to that contract.

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, chris heff said:

I don’t think Samuel is tradable due to that contract.

Depending on the week the team taking him on may only owe him 4 million.  It would have to include a player coming back.  

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The middle of the field was the Bills advantage all night and every time they attacked there - it worked.

 

Copy pasting myself from another thread:

 

"I'm stealing this information from Joe Marino's all-22 analysis. Leading up to the game Joe said the Pats have weak coverage LBs, and that one of our priorities should have been to get them into their base personnel and throw the ball into it. In his all-22 analysis he revealed that we got them into base personnel on 14 plays. But we only passed on 2 of those plays. Both passes were 20 yard completions to Kincaid. The 12 runs averaged 2.8 YPC... That represents a massive missed opportunity. We got the looks we wanted but didn't take advantage on nearly enough of them because our identity is that we run out of heavy personnel and that's that. Stubbornness hurt the offense on Sunday night."

 

I'm starting to worry that Brady game plans for his players' strengths but he doesn't game plan for the opponent's weaknesses.

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, corta765 said:

I would be more ok with the idea of what they have done with the WR corp if we could see some tangible progress by the defense.

 

Yes this is exactly correct and it's what I was worried about all offseason. The common refrain from the fanbase was that the offense was already elite so all the investments needed to go to the defense. And McDermott and Beane clearly agreed because that's the script they followed. My concern was that all the investments in the world wouldn't make a difference on the defensive side, and that we should instead go all in on investing around Allen because he represents our best shot at a championship. Unfortunately all of my fears have come to fruition.

 

In a vacuum I understand blaming the offense more for this loss. But we have a defensive head coach with his hand picked DC, and we've spent the vast majority of our draft and FA resources on the defense over the past two offseasons. What is the point of all that if we can't even win one ugly defensive battle? If we're doomed to lose every single game against a decent opponent where Allen and the offense aren't at their best?

[KOKBILLS]

31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I'm starting to worry that Brady game plans for his players' strengths but he doesn't game plan for the opponent's weaknesses.

 

I totally agree and I've been saying the same for over a year now...

I call it stubbornness... 

[Albwan]

   Bills weaknesses have been exposed. Not to parrot what others say, It was stupid of coaches to not keep throwing to Dalton

until it didn't work anymore. Also one final thing about that game, I find it very hard to believe that the nfl isn't steering the outcomes

of some games.

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Copy pasting myself from another thread:

 

"I'm stealing this information from Joe Marino's all-22 analysis. Leading up to the game Joe said the Pats have weak coverage LBs, and that one of our priorities should have been to get them into their base personnel and throw the ball into it. In his all-22 analysis he revealed that we got them into base personnel on 14 plays. But we only passed on 2 of those plays. Both passes were 20 yard completions to Kincaid. The 12 runs averaged 2.8 YPC... That represents a massive missed opportunity. We got the looks we wanted but didn't take advantage on nearly enough of them because our identity is that we run out of heavy personnel and that's that. Stubbornness hurt the offense on Sunday night."

 

I'm starting to worry that Brady game plans for his players' strengths but he doesn't game plan for the opponent's weaknesses.

 

Possibly. At this stage I am more inclined to just put it down to a bad day. He definitely did not call the game to maximise our advantages. Which were definitely middle of the field vs those linebackers. And when we did we marched down the field. It bears watching for a pattern, sure, but I just think he called a poor game Sunday. When he has done that previously he has always bounced back the next week. I expect the Bills to have a really good offensive display on Monday.

[thenorthremembers]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes this is exactly correct and it's what I was worried about all offseason. The common refrain from the fanbase was that the offense was already elite so all the investments needed to go to the defense. And McDermott and Beane clearly agreed because that's the script they followed. My concern was that all the investments in the world wouldn't make a difference on the defensive side, and that we should instead go all in on investing around Allen because he represents our best shot at a championship. Unfortunately all of my fears have come to fruition.

 

In a vacuum I understand blaming the offense more for this loss. But we have a defensive head coach with his hand picked DC, and we've spent the vast majority of our draft and FA resources on the defense over the past two offseasons. What is the point of all that if we can't even win one ugly defensive battle? If we're doomed to lose every single game against a decent opponent where Allen and the offense aren't at their best?

 

This is exact right. I get wanting to reload on defense, but the average point output in the NFL last week was 24.   Unless you thought your free agents' pickups and draft picks were  going to make you the 2000 Ravens, there was no excuse not to have a #1 wideout going into the season.   You should be coming to the stadium expecting that your defense will give up 21 points.  The only way to offset that is to score more.  The most important positions in the NFL are QB, LT, DE1, CB1, WR, and RT.     The Bills have spared no cost in either free agent money or draft resources trying to find the DE1, they need to start putting that energy is finding an elite wideout for Josh.

[Success]

Maye hype is over the top this week, and the renewed questioning of Allen is surprising.  Like, one bad game, which was actually pretty good?

 

I would love to see how Maye would have done against the Pats defense, and how Josh would have done against the Bills.

 

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

This is exact right. I get wanting to reload on defense, but the average point output in the NFL last week was 24.   Unless you thought your free agents' pickups and draft picks were  going to make you the 2000 Ravens, there was no excuse not to have a #1 wideout going into the season.   You should be coming to the stadium expecting that your defense will give up 21 points.  The only way to offset that is to score more.  The most important positions in the NFL are QB, LT, DE1, CB1, WR, and RT.     The Bills have spared no cost in either free agent money or draft resources trying to find the DE1, they need to start putting that energy is finding an elite wideout for Josh.

 

The Colts and the Lions look like the two best teams in the NFL right now and it's not with dominant defense, it's with offenses that are steamrolling their opponents and running up the score. They've made their defenses practically irrelevant. I think it is still possible to build a dominant defense, just look at the Browns, it's just a lot harder in the modern NFL. And this regime has never been close to having a dominant defense. Even in the Leslie Frazier years when we ranked top 5 in a lot of the relevant statistics we laid down and died in the playoffs on an annual basis. So I just never had any faith that this regime was going to invest their way into a dominant defense. They chose to lean into the one thing that they've never gotten right, instead of the one thing that they nailed.

 

Edited 18 minutes ago by HappyDays

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Colts and the Lions look like the two best teams in the NFL right now and it's not with dominant defense, it's with offenses that are steamrolling their opponents and running up the score. They've made their defenses practically irrelevant. I think it is still possible to build a dominant defense, just look at the Browns, it's just a lot harder in the modern NFL. And this regime has never been close to having a dominant defense. Even in the Leslie Frazier years when we ranked top 5 in a lot of the relevant statistics we laid down and died in the playoffs on an annual basis. So I just never had any faith that this regime was going to invest their way into a dominant defense. They chose to lean into the one thing that they've never gotten right, instead of the one thing that they nailed.

 

But you have to have some defense. Last year, Joe Burrow had 4,918 passing yards, 43TDs, and only 9 INTs, and his team missed the playoffs. Their offense was insane and they kept losing high-scoring games because their defense was as bad as their offense was good. I get that you can win by leaning into the offense, but there is a limit. And that limit is probably giving up 44 points to Russell Wilson and the Steelers at home.