Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[RunTheBall]

Miami played Cover 2 or some sort of deep shell 60% of the time. There were definitely intermediate/deep routes called and Josh decided against a couple. On short yardage situations Miami played more man or run blitzes. I’d like to see Brady be a little more aggressive in those looks but it’s hard to argue when the O is putting up 30 points a game.

 

I don’t think Josh is getting over cautious, I think he’s become much more cerebral and understands the game script. Yeah, fans want bombs away and to put a 50 burger up on every team. I think Josh felt we were in control of the Miami game and he didn’t need to take chances and risk the turnover. Against a better team like KC or the Ravens, I bet he’d pull the trigger more often on those deeper routes.

 

That’s good football. We lead the league in explosive plays, they just aren’t the explosives fans want to see. We are ahead of the curve on offense. Multi TE sets, 6 O line with multiple TE all the way though to 5 wide. The number of personell packages we have is ridiculous and it’s working. I’ll worry about the deep stuff when we play a team that man’s up on us most of the game and we can’t get the ball downfield. 

 

Until then, enjoy the W’s people, style points don’t matter.

 

[Mikie2times]

On 9/18/2025 at 11:41 PM, MPL said:

3 years ago the Bills were the worst YAC team. Everything was a deep

shot or nothing. And everyone here complained about it. Well, now we’re all YAC YAC YAC and everyone’s complaining about that, too. You can’t have both!

 

Actually, you can have both. It's called balance. 

[BearNorth]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The positive of Palmer here is erased by confirmation that Keon Coleman is still trying to find a way to separate from a lamppost.

Nex Gen stats show Keon's separation was the same as Tyreek's - on much shorter routes.  keon also ranks 7th among WR's in catch percentage at 77.8

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

Miami played Cover 2 or some sort of deep shell 60% of the time. There were definitely intermediate/deep routes called and Josh decided against a couple. On short yardage situations Miami played more man or run blitzes. I’d like to see Brady be a little more aggressive in those looks but it’s hard to argue when the O is putting up 30 points a game.

 

I don’t think Josh is getting over cautious, I think he’s become much more cerebral and understands the game script. Yeah, fans want bombs away and to put a 50 burger up on every team. I think Josh felt we were in control of the Miami game and he didn’t need to take chances and risk the turnover. Against a better team like KC or the Ravens, I bet he’d pull the trigger more often on those deeper routes.

 

That’s good football. We lead the league in explosive plays, they just aren’t the explosives fans want to see. We are ahead of the curve on offense. Multi TE sets, 6 O line with multiple TE all the way though to 5 wide. The number of personell packages we have is ridiculous and it’s working. I’ll worry about the deep stuff when we play a team that man’s up on us most of the game and we can’t get the ball downfield. 

 

Until then, enjoy the W’s people, style points don’t matter.

 

All of this.  People keep saying the WR's can't do it.  That it's not happening because of the WR's.  That's where I don't agree.  It's not happening because we have other easier and reliable options.  I am NOT saying they are AJ Brown or Ja'Marr Chase but I think Keon will surprise people if and when they actually target him.  Palmer seemed up to the task when they needed him.  I was at the game and even with the 70 percent zone they played I saw guys open down the field at times.  I also saw Allen connecting on almost 80 percent of his passes and throwing 3 TD's without throwing riskier passes down field.  I'll hold off on complaining until there's something to complain about.

 

ps

About the time they man us up and try cover zero or single high we'll sneak Cook or Ty out on a wheel route and throw it over their head's that way.  There's more than one way to skin a cat.

[BullBuchanan]

On 9/20/2025 at 8:24 AM, T.E. said:

LMAO, Brady and Manning are number 1 and 3, respectively, on the all-time passing TD list.

 

"They just handed off most of the time!"

Was what I wrote that complicated that you had to respond with a completely unrelated fun-fact?

Tom Brady did not throw more than 28 TDs in any year that he won a Super Bowl.

Edited September 21 by BullBuchanan

[T.E.]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Was what I wrote that complicated that you had to respond with a completely unrelated fun-fact?

Tom Brady did not throw more than 28 TDs in any year that he won a Super Bowl.

He threw for 50 TDs in a year that they had an undefeated regular season, but they (thankfully) lost a fluky SB they would've won 97 times out of 100, so I guess it wasn't a good strategy for them, huh?

 

Manning also led the league in passing TDs the one year he won the SB with the Colts. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, T.E. said:

He threw for 50 TDs in a year that they had an undefeated regular season, but they (thankfully) lost a fluky SB they would've won 97 times out of 100, so I guess it wasn't a good strategy for them, huh?

 

Manning also led the league in passing TDs the one year he won the SB with the Colts. 

And in the year he won with Denver he wasn't anywhere near career high. In fact both career years for Brady and Manning ended without SB wins.

A good running game and solid defense have been more critical than top of the top QB play for most SB winners in recent past and the data backs it up. If you're asking Allen to put the cape on more than a handful of times, you probably don't have a championship team.

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

And in the year he won with Denver he wasn't anywhere near career high. In fact both career years for Brady and Manning ended without SB wins.

A good running game and solid defense have been more critical than top of the top QB play for most SB winners in recent past and the data backs it up. If you're asking Allen to put the cape on more than a handful of times, you probably don't have a championship team.

 

That is exactly right. Generally the massive passing yards and touchdowns signal some issues that show up in the post season. 

 

Equally though unable to stretch the field vertically tends to too.

Edited September 21 by GunnerBill

[Don Otreply]

Upon giving this just a little bit of thought, I’m thinking that the team has a defensive third down problem of biblical proportions…, 

 

Now this could just be me, yah I know, hard to believe, right? 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Upon giving this just a little bit of thought, I’m thinking that the team has a defensive third down problem of biblical proportions…, 

 

Now this could just be me, yah I know, hard to believe, right? 

Biblical.  Even Armageddon like.  Don’t know how humanity can survive to be honest.

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

Miami played Cover 2 or some sort of deep shell 60% of the time. There were definitely intermediate/deep routes called and Josh decided against a couple. On short yardage situations Miami played more man or run blitzes. I’d like to see Brady be a little more aggressive in those looks but it’s hard to argue when the O is putting up 30 points a game.

 

I don’t think Josh is getting over cautious, I think he’s become much more cerebral and understands the game script. Yeah, fans want bombs away and to put a 50 burger up on every team. I think Josh felt we were in control of the Miami game and he didn’t need to take chances and risk the turnover. Against a better team like KC or the Ravens, I bet he’d pull the trigger more often on those deeper routes.

 

That’s good football. We lead the league in explosive plays, they just aren’t the explosives fans want to see. We are ahead of the curve on offense. Multi TE sets, 6 O line with multiple TE all the way though to 5 wide. The number of personell packages we have is ridiculous and it’s working. I’ll worry about the deep stuff when we play a team that man’s up on us most of the game and we can’t get the ball downfield. 

 

Until then, enjoy the W’s people, style points don’t matter.

 

You have a link for that stat on Miami cover2 vs Bills? I'm watching and it looks like a good amount of single high fwiw

[Don Otreply]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Biblical.  Even Armageddon like.  Don’t know how humanity can survive to be honest.

I hear you, I swear I felt the foundation of my house crumbling, I hear that the statue of Ralph Wilson was teetering outside the stadium, and hot dog prices dropped to a buck fifty each at the concession stands, there is no telling what other catastrophes might be about to occur…, 

 

 

🤣

[Maine-iac]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You have a link for that stat on Miami cover2 vs Bills? I'm watching and it looks like a good amount of single high fwiw

I can't vouch for cover 2, and I saw a lot of single high also, but Cover1 quoted 70 percent zone to try to limit the down the field passing.  It's in the Cover1/Sal youtube show from this morning.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Maine-iac said:

I can't vouch for cover 2, and I saw a lot of single high also, but Cover1 quoted 70 percent zone to try to limit the down the field passing.  It's in the Cover1/Sal youtube show from this morning.

👍Ty

 

No offense but cover1 is not a reliable source for me

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

👍Ty

 

No offense but cover1 is not a reliable source for me

So what then PFF?  I'm not married to Cover1 so I could care less but I don't generally think they get their facts wrong.

[RunTheBall]

Watch the All-22 and see how much they rotated into Cover 2/3 looks in the second half. They ran a 3-3-5 in the first and we gashed them with the run game. They showed a lot of man at the snap and then rotated into 2 high shells. Marino/Cover 1/Sal all have > than 60% 2 high safety shells, sometimes 3.

[Matt_In_NH]

8 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

So you're going to look at 27 points and just conclude the offence was good? Defence didn't force 3 turnovers to help them on the plus side of the field to set up those points right? lol.. 

 

The peak bills ceiling  to me for offence was 2021. And it was more pass happy. They had the chiefs beat in arrowhead with 36 points until the defensive and coaching meltdown.

For some reason the bills wanted to change to more ball control , limit mistakes and to run the ball more with heavy sets. Where in reality if the defence was even competent, they would have at least 1 Super Bowl from the Daboll years 

 

Now- I am not saying that they should go full 2021 and just pass it 40 times a game as I do think it's good to have a bit more balance. But I feel like the bills made too dramatic of a shift. It’s like a pitcher who throws 100mph who can't be hit- But instead of adding a change up to complement the fastball, they tell him to to throw 90mph and just focus on location. Doesn't make sense to me 
 

 

 

To the bolded:  Did you see where I wrote "Understood it was not the best offensive performance but it’s not like they were just shut down"?  Peak offence is now, not 2021, it is clear we wont see this the same.  The reason they want to change is it gives you a better chance to actually win, again repeating myself, it might not be as fun or sexy but it is more effective.  Did you know Josh Allen by a wide margin has some of the best playoff stats for passing in terms of TD:INT ratio.  You said you care about playoffs over regular season....in the elimination games they offense has not been the problem except the Bengals game.  In every one of them the defense has been a problem.  

[BillsFan130]

23 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

To the bolded:  Did you see where I wrote "Understood it was not the best offensive performance but it’s not like they were just shut down"?  Peak offence is now, not 2021, it is clear we wont see this the same.  The reason they want to change is it gives you a better chance to actually win, again repeating myself, it might not be as fun or sexy but it is more effective.  Did you know Josh Allen by a wide margin has some of the best playoff stats for passing in terms of TD:INT ratio.  You said you care about playoffs over regular season....in the elimination games they offense has not been the problem except the Bengals game.  In every one of them the defense has been a problem.  

So you're saying- You would rather have last years playoff offence compared to 2021 playoff offence? Please tell me you actually don't mean that.

 

Yes by far the biggest problem in the playoffs is the defence . No denying that.

 

But 2021 playoffs- New England perfect wild card game/13 seconds game, is absolutely peak bills offence in the McDermott era and there really shouldn't even be a debate about that 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

I can't vouch for cover 2, and I saw a lot of single high also, but Cover1 quoted 70 percent zone to try to limit the down the field passing.  It's in the Cover1/Sal youtube show from this morning.

 

The post-game pressers talked about them feigning a lot and then dropping back into 2.

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

We lead the league in explosive plays, they just aren’t the explosives fans want to see

I’d love to see a citation for this stat because I doubt it. 
 

Especially when at the time of making this post, 90% of the league hadn’t played a third game like the Bills had