Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[folz]

4 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Lot of non-sequiturs and selective amnesia in your post, but this section is about as wrong as wrong can be.  As in:

 

1. They had an offensive scheme, injuries or not, by Week 4.  I'm just spit-balling, but that's what an OC spends his off-season and camp doing: designing and installing the offense.

2. No identity? You do know that players are acquired and a scheme installed during off-seasons?  That's kind of what forms your identity.

3. "Everyone eats" was the mantra during camp.  It didn't surface like a submarine in the middle of the season. 

4. The GM traded for a WR for a reason.  Was that because the 3rd round pick was burning a hole in his pocket?  Was it because he liked the guy personally? Maybe it was because the WRs were just plain bad and incapable of getting open so Josh didn't get slammed onto the turf anymore waiting on them.. 

 

Of course they had a scheme and plan going into the season, but you don't know what is or isn't working until you start playing actual games (especially if it is a new scheme and new players) and when you see how defenses are playing you and adapting to what you are doing. It is talked about all of the time that some teams find their way as the season progresses. Teams don't just set a new scheme and then say, come hell or high-water that is what we are sticking with. You go in with a plan, but then you alter things or tweak things as you see what works and what doesn't, what guys are executing well and what they aren't, etc. Having a scheme/plan going into the season and an offense finding its identity as a team are often two very separate things. 

 

Ok, maybe my memory was off with the "everyone eats" thing and that did start in the offseason, I'll give you that.

 

But, your initial statement that I was reacting to was that you said defenses figured out our offense in 2024 and now again in 2025. And again, you are referencing week 4 (the loss to Baltimore---and then subsequent loss to Houston the following week). If that is when defenses figured us out, in week 4 last year, then why were they so successful against almost every other defense from week 6 on? If we were figured out, wouldn't the offense have struggled all year? They didn't. It seems much more logical to me that a team with a new scheme and new players were still finding themselves in week 4, rather than defenses having already figured them out in just 3 games. Plus, don't forget the injuries. In the weeks 4 and 5 losses to Balt and Houston, the following players were injured: Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, Taylor Rapp, Ed Oliver, and Taron Johnson. I'm sure that had nothing to do with anything, right? It was all just that our WRs sucked, even though two of the top three were injured at the time.

 

Do you really think that the acquisition of Amari Cooper is what turned the offense around (despite him playing less than 22% of snaps on the year). Do you think they would have been bad without Cooper? We won two playoff games where Amari had 2 receptions for 8 yards on 4 targets (across two games). So, was it Cooper coming on board? Or was it the receivers getting healthy and the offense finally gelling and finding its identity (even if you don't believe that to be a thing). I mean how much do you think Mack Hollins was part of the off-season plan and how much of that developed out of need and necessity, and seeing what Mack was good at, and Mack and Josh finding a chemistry? 

 

As to #4 above, why Beane acquired Cooper...I already stated that in my last post: I mean, was it because the WRs were just "plain bad and incapable" as you seem to think? Or was it because two of his top 3 WRs were injured and the third was a rookie in his 6th game. Again, I think you can fault Beane for not having enough WR depth last year, but I do not think the acquisition of Amari Cooper was any sort of admission that the offensive philosophy wasn't going to work, that Beane screwed up by not getting a #1 WR. Obviously the offense did work and is still working (with or without Amari). 

 

Since the beginning of last year (22 games total---I'm not counting week 17 when our starters didn't play), the Bills are 18-5 and have averaged 31.72 points per game. I'm just having a hard time understanding why you think defenses have figured out our offense, or that you seem to think this offense isn't or can't be successful or whatever (not to put words in your mouth).

[SoTier]

 

On 9/19/2025 at 12:47 AM, ColoradoBills said:

 

The punt was downed on the 2.  They would have had to go 98 yards.

 

8 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

If it wasn't for Sieler's idiocy we would have gone had 3 & out punts three times in a row, due to poor play-calling and execution. With a tied game, we would be giving the ball back to a Miami offense we had shown little chance of stopping. Take seven off the board there and we're on 21, not 28. We scored 31, but seven of those were at least partially down to Sieler and three thanks to the defense/Tua. Now, if the Bills were facing a great defense then that's one thing. But they were facing an undermanned and weakened defense last night, yet it spluttered.

 

The Bills had taken away the Fins deep passing game all night, limiting Tua to something like 4+ yards per completion.   Do you really think that Tua could have dinked and dunked the Fins 98 yards to score a TD?   They probably would have had to run 12-16 successful plays to cover that much of the field.

 

17 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Many of the comments here extend what has been a Bills fan issue for as long as I’ve been a fan (66 years).  There has always been a kind of pesssimistic fear about the fortunes of the team.  Even when we were doing great in the Super Bowl years there was a Chicken Littleness in the minds of some.

 

We don’t have a passing problem, what we have are two things: an offensive coordinator that has put together a truly balanced offense, and an all-world QB that has matured in his approach to the game.  Brady runs what he thinks will work; the last two games defenses have been susceptible to the run so he beat them over the head with it.  If and when they are more susceptible to the pass I fully expect us to attack that way.  Josh has matured into the type of QB that will take the easy yards vs. try and force the ball downfield.  He doesn’t have to worry about force feeding Diggs anymore, and uses the everyone eats philosophy to success.

 

I suspect at the end of week 3 we will be among the top rated offenses in the league.  Good for them.

 

I've only been a Bills fan for 62 years, but I concur.  There has always been a loud group of Bills fans who live under perpetual rain clouds.

 

17 hours ago, kkim0904 said:

It is our defense, not offense.  Our running defense is mediocre and Miami converted 10/15 Third down.. 

 

This is a legitimate concern, but for being down as many starters and potential starters on defense as the Bills were against Miami, I hope that this aspect of the Bills game can improve.

 

16 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

You neglected to mention that they had a Hall of Fame Tight End out there — one of the best to ever play the position. 

 

Allen doesn’t have anyone to ride shotgun with him. 

 

James Cook isn't exactly chopped liver this season.

 

8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I just thought of another analogy (and sorry if it has been used). I’m a Yankee fan. The Yankees lead baseball in runs scored AND runs scored via the HR. They have slugged and beaten up on bad teams. I do not look at their runs scored and think, “that’ll be great in the playoffs.” When you play the best teams you need to be able to win in a variety of ways. Right now, the Bills can win with an elite running game, never turning it over and Josh being the best player in the world. So while, it’s great that the Bills score a lot, when things tighten up, can Josh get enough help from his receivers? He did vs. Baltimore (who always chokes). For me, I wish that the Bills had, or do, make a move for a guy that wins on the outside because he’s better than the guys trying to defend him.

 

I think the Yankees would be better served by having a better bullpen just as the Bills would be better served having a better defense.

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

On 9/18/2025 at 10:34 PM, T.E. said:

That is not what you do when you have the best QB in football.

It's what you do when you want to win championships. Brady and Manning didn't win SBs airing it out. They won SBs handing it off, and reliably making the handful of plays they needed to when it mattered. Championship football looks like boring football.

[UKBillFan]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

 

 

The Bills had taken away the Fins deep passing game all night, limiting Tua to something like 4+ yards per completion.   Do you really think that Tua could have dinked and dunked the Fins 98 yards to score a TD?   They probably would have had to run 12-16 successful plays to cover that much of the field.

 

 

I've only been a Bills fan for 62 years, but I concur.  There has always been a loud group of Bills fans who live under perpetual rain clouds.

 

 

This is a legitimate concern, but for being down as many starters and potential starters on defense as the Bills were against Miami, I hope that this aspect of the Bills game can improve.

 

 

James Cook isn't exactly chopped liver this season.

 

 

I think the Yankees would be better served by having a better bullpen just as the Bills would be better served having a better defense.

 

 

 

Whether the Fins could dink and dunk, it was 21 all at that point. It just takes a couple of break out runs - which Achane is capable of, especially against a tired defense - to get them into that position.

 

I'm not saying the Bills offense is bad. That would be stupid. But I am concerned there seemed to be a lack of ability to change the course on that side of the ball until the RTK penalty (two three and outs followed by a "punt"). Even if the defense managed to hold, there was no proof the Bills offense could move the ball either. The RTK penalty swing confidence away from the Fins towards the Bills, which led to the win. Without it... who knows what would have happened. Maybe the D would have pulled out a safety or interception without losing yardage. But perhaps we would be sitting here 2-1, because the course of the game at the time of that punt was not looking good on either side of the ball.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I think the Yankees would be better served by having a better bullpen just as the Bills would be better served having a better defense.

 

 

That would certainly work. The counter is, the Bills have invested heavily in terms of assets into their defense, just as the Yankees have with their bull pen. The Bills used their top 4 picks this year, and then extended Rousseau, Benford, and Bernard on big contracts, while paying Bosa, Tre, and the two suspended guys. That’s a lot of assets to throw at defense while you signed the Chargers number 3 and Elijah Moore well after the draft. The Bills didn’t exactly look to find “the guy” there. They looked to find a couple of bodies. 
 

My belief, is, and has been, if the Bills are going to win in this era it will be BECAUSE of Josh Allen. With that being said, my philosophy would be, load up FOR him instead of saying, “he will be good enough to overcome their shortcomings.” They have built an elite OL and now running game with the emergence of Cook as a star. If they had a number 1 WR (and honestly maybe even a number 2) they’d win multiple Super Bowls. To do that though, you have to make decisions like, “we will let Rousseau walk and allocate that cap space to a guy like Tee Higgins”. That’s meant to be an example so don’t get hung up on the names but you get the point. You have to say things like, “we have been really good at finding corners that can play later in the draft (Benford, Taron, Dane Jackson, etc).” That doesn’t mean that they are all great but instead of using prime picks there, take some shots at WR because the best ones never hit FA anymore. In order to get an elite WR now, you need to trade for them or draft them. Instead of 1st round CB and 7th round WR, try 1st round WR and 7th round CB. 
 

This conversation has been going round and round for months/years. Of course we are all thrilled that the Bills are winning. They absolutely score lots of points. It’s a difference of philosophy and a realistic concern because they have not yet proven that they can get it done when it matters most. For me, it alls centers around the conversation of, “what is the best way for this team to get over the hump? Should they load up on defense and let Josh’s otherworldly abilities cover up for their lack of talent on the outside? Or should they keep swinging to upgrade the WRs, figuring that they can make the offense the Monstars?” I’m firmly of the belief, and was even when the defense was better, that the incremental growth of the defense by upgrading from Solomon to Landon Jackson is way less impactful than upgrading from Palmer to Isaac TeSlaa. That’s the crux of the debate. I want them to keep taking a shot at finding that guy to create the Monstars vs. trying to upgrade from Solomon to Landon Jackson. 
 

There are a lot of words here but to reiterate it’s a philosophical debate. “Should we load up FOR Josh or should we load up on the other side of the ball because Josh is so good that he will make everyone better?” I believe the former. Many people here believe the latter. The irony is that both have been proven right AND wrong over the last few years. The Bills have scored lots of points. At the same time, the Bills haven’t had the dudes to get it done in the biggest moments. 

Edited September 20 by Kirby Jackson

[T.E.]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

It's what you do when you want to win championships. Brady and Manning didn't win SBs airing it out. They won SBs handing it off, and reliably making the handful of plays they needed to when it mattered. Championship football looks like boring football.

LMAO, Brady and Manning are number 1 and 3, respectively, on the all-time passing TD list.

 

"They just handed off most of the time!"

[Magox]

 

 

 

[Magox]

For all the chicken littles 

 

 

[MikePJ76]

12 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

It's what you do when you want to win championships. Brady and Manning didn't win SBs airing it out. They won SBs handing it off, and reliably making the handful of plays they needed to when it mattered. Championship football looks like boring football.

The term you are looking for is efficiency.  When you want to know about Joe Brady's offense or sean payton/pete carmichael offense he started in the key ingredient is efficiency.  

 

High completion percentage, do not give the ball away, do not get sacked and get the ball out quick to create yac for the various backs/receivers and tight ends. s Most importantly run the ball effectively.

 

that is basically the key element of all the successful offenses in this era.  Joe Brady has created an offensive structure that has made Allen one of the most efficient guys in the league hence the fantastic offense since Dorsey was fired.

[VW82]

I still think we need to give it more time, but one of the things that needs to improve is Josh's accuracy. It felt like he's been missing a lot of throws so I double checked and sure enough his OnTrgt% is only 51% through three weeks. He's typically in the mid-high 70s. 51% would rank DFL in the league most years. Decision making is really good but accuracy is off and precision is off. Can't blame it all on receivers and coaches.

Edited September 20 by VW82

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I still think we need to give it more time, but one of the things that needs to improve is Josh's accuracy. It felt like he's been missing a lot of throws so I double checked and sure enough his OnTrgt% is only 51% through three weeks. He's typically in the mid-high 70s. 51% would rank DFL in the league most years. Decision making is really good but accuracy is off and precision is off. Can't blame it all on receivers and coaches.

 

His completion percentage is 69.7% but his on target rate is 51%? Help me understand that one.

[HappyDays]

@VW82 I just did a quick spot check on Pro Football Reference. Every QB's on target % is higher than their completion %, as you'd expect. Every QB except for 2 that is - Allen and Tua, the only QBs that have played 3 games. It seems that PFR has charted all of the throws and completions from the TNF game but has not charted on target throws so Allen and Tua both have a 0% on target rate from that game. After week 3 finishes it will update.

 

Also - what games have you been watching that make you think Allen hasn't been accurate? I mean did you really think Allen has been off target on half of his throws this season? Come on man.

[VW82]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

@VW82 I just did a quick spot check on Pro Football Reference. Every QB's on target % is higher than their completion %, as you'd expect. Every QB except for 2 that is - Allen and Tua, the only QBs that have played 3 games. It seems that PFR has charted all of the throws and completions from the TNF game but has not charted on target throws so Allen and Tua both have a 0% on target rate from that game. After week 3 finishes it will update.

 

Also - what games have you been watching that make you think Allen hasn't been accurate? I mean did you really think Allen has been off target on half of his throws this season? Come on man.

 

That makes sense. I've been on the road the last two weeks and haven't had the chance to do much by way of detailed rewatch, but it felt to me from the bit I saw like there were more precision issues than usual. For example, two of Kincaid's catches on Thurs required full extension despite being easy throws, including the TD. Both Palmer and Shakir had to perform 360 moves going back for football vs Jets while moving in the opposite direction. We've seen some tough catches. 51% definitely felt low (as did the team drops number) but there was a reason I was looking in the first place.  

Edited September 20 by VW82

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

That makes sense. I've been on the road the last two weeks and haven't had the chance to do much by way of detailed rewatch, but it felt to me from the bit I saw like there were more precision issues than usual. For example, two of Kincaid's catches on Thurs required full extension despite being easy throws, including the TD. Both Palmer and Shakir had to perform 360 moves going back for football vs Jets while moving in the opposite direction. We've seen some tough catches. 51% definitely felt low (as did the team drops number) but there was a reason I was looking in the first place.  

 

PFR has Allen with 49 on target throws. If I'm correct that they are only counting the first 2 games, that would put his on target throw rate at 92.5% which would be 2nd in the NFL behind Jalen Hurts.

 

Allen has been exceptionally accurate this year. The training camp reports that he was throwing the ball better than ever have proven correct. I don't know what made you think that a pass catcher having to make "full extension" on a catch or having to come back to the ball is unusual or counts as an inaccurate throw.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

PFR has Allen with 49 on target throws. If I'm correct that they are only counting the first 2 games, that would put his on target throw rate at 92.5% which would be 2nd in the NFL behind Jalen Hurts.

 

Allen has been exceptionally accurate this year. The training camp reports that he was throwing the ball better than ever have proven correct. I don't know what made you think that a pass catcher having to make "full extension" on a catch or having to come back to the ball is unusual or counts as an inaccurate throw.

I would be interested to know who is actually doing the 'accurate throw' count as well

 

Not every throw that a receiver isn't in perfect place for is an inaccuracy...outside Shakir we don't exactly have a bunch of polished route runners 

[SoTier]

9 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Whether the Fins could dink and dunk, it was 21 all at that point. It just takes a couple of break out runs - which Achane is capable of, especially against a tired defense - to get them into that position.

 

I'm not saying the Bills offense is bad. That would be stupid. But I am concerned there seemed to be a lack of ability to change the course on that side of the ball until the RTK penalty (two three and outs followed by a "punt"). Even if the defense managed to hold, there was no proof the Bills offense could move the ball either. The RTK penalty swing confidence away from the Fins towards the Bills, which led to the win. Without it... who knows what would have happened. Maybe the D would have pulled out a safety or interception without losing yardage. But perhaps we would be sitting here 2-1, because the course of the game at the time of that punt was not looking good on either side of the ball.

 

The Bills didn't change their offensive strategy after the RTK call.   The penalty gave the Bills a first down on the Fins' 36.   They handed off twice to Cook for runs of 6 and 3 yards.  Then they handed off to Johnson for 7 yards and a first down at the 20.   Allen threw a short 5 yard pass to Palmer at the 15.   The TD pass to Shakir wasn't 15 yards downfield into the end zone.  It was just a few yards downfield that Shakir turned into a score by YAC.

 

The Bills are who they are: a team that's methodical, relentless, and opportunistic.  They had no doubt that they could stop Miami.  As a fan, you see them having to punt again, and you worry about the Fins scoring a TD.   The Bills see a punt downed on the 2 yard line as an opportunity to force the Fins to punt from inside their 12 yard line -- or better yet, an opportunity for a safety.   They see the RTK penalty as just the kind of stupid mistake desperate teams make that give them more opportunities to score.   

 

9 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That would certainly work. The counter is, the Bills have invested heavily in terms of assets into their defense, just as the Yankees have with their bull pen. The Bills used their top 4 picks this year, and then extended Rousseau, Benford, and Bernard on big contracts, while paying Bosa, Tre, and the two suspended guys. That’s a lot of assets to throw at defense while you signed the Chargers number 3 and Elijah Moore well after the draft. The Bills didn’t exactly look to find “the guy” there. They looked to find a couple of bodies. 
 

My belief, is, and has been, if the Bills are going to win in this era it will be BECAUSE of Josh Allen. With that being said, my philosophy would be, load up FOR him instead of saying, “he will be good enough to overcome their shortcomings.” They have built an elite OL and now running game with the emergence of Cook as a star. If they had a number 1 WR (and honestly maybe even a number 2) they’d win multiple Super Bowls. To do that though, you have to make decisions like, “we will let Rousseau walk and allocate that cap space to a guy like Tee Higgins”. That’s meant to be an example so don’t get hung up on the names but you get the point. You have to say things like, “we have been really good at finding corners that can play later in the draft (Benford, Taron, Dane Jackson, etc).” That doesn’t mean that they are all great but instead of using prime picks there, take some shots at WR because the best ones never hit FA anymore. In order to get an elite WR now, you need to trade for them or draft them. Instead of 1st round CB and 7th round WR, try 1st round WR and 7th round CB. 
 

This conversation has been going round and round for months/years. Of course we are all thrilled that the Bills are winning. They absolutely score lots of points. It’s a difference of philosophy and a realistic concern because they have not yet proven that they can get it done when it matters most. For me, it alls centers around the conversation of, “what is the best way for this team to get over the hump? Should they load up on defense and let Josh’s otherworldly abilities cover up for their lack of talent on the outside? Or should they keep swinging to upgrade the WRs, figuring that they can make the offense the Monstars?” I’m firmly of the belief, and was even when the defense was better, that the incremental growth of the defense by upgrading from Solomon to Landon Jackson is way less impactful than upgrading from Palmer to Isaac TeSlaa. That’s the crux of the debate. I want them to keep taking a shot at finding that guy to create the Monstars vs. trying to upgrade from Solomon to Landon Jackson. 
 

There are a lot of words here but to reiterate it’s a philosophical debate. “Should we load up FOR Josh or should we load up on the other side of the ball because Josh is so good that he will make everyone better?” I believe the former. Many people here believe the latter. The irony is that both have been proven right AND wrong over the last few years. The Bills have scored lots of points. At the same time, the Bills haven’t had the dudes to get it done in the biggest moments. 

 

We will just have to agree to disagree because it is philosophical.   I'm a believer in what are some common cliches in the NFL because I think that  there are real kernels of truth in them: 

• "defense wins championships"
• "build a team from the lines out"
• "running games travel well".

Needless to say, I don't have issue with the Bills on offense.  I worry about the defense.

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I would be interested to know who is actually doing the 'accurate throw' count as well

 

Not every throw that a receiver isn't in perfect place for is an inaccuracy...outside Shakir we don't exactly have a bunch of polished route runners 

 

PFR defines an on target throw as a throw that "would have hit the intended receiver" so they're pretty generous with it I think. For example Tua's throw back to Tyreek after he escaped the CB blitz on 3rd and long I wouldn't exactly classify as a very accurate throw but since it was in the area of Tyreek and he made the catch I'm pretty sure they mark that as an on target throw. But yeah there's going to be a bit of subjectivity there. With on target percentage they exclude throwaways and spikes.

 

Edited September 20 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

PFR defines an on target throw as a throw that "would have hit the intended target" so they're pretty generous with it I think. For example Tua's throw back to Tyreek after he escaped the CB blitz on 3rd and long I wouldn't exactly classify as an accurate throw but since it was in the area of Tyreek and he made the catch I'm pretty sure they mark that as an on target throw. But yeah there's going to be a bit of subjectivity there. With on target percentage they exclude throwaways and spikes.

If I was counting any throw outside the pocket within catch radius would be on target tbh

 

But like some throws are to lead the receiver into space/out of contact, sometimes guys get rerouted, oline doesn't get the protection right etc... That's a lot of nuance for like 1k+ throws a week

[Big Turk]

38 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

The Bills didn't change their offensive strategy after the RTK call.   The penalty gave the Bills a first down on the Fins' 36.   They handed off twice to Cook for runs of 6 and 3 yards.  Then they handed off to Johnson for 7 yards and a first down at the 20.   Allen threw a short 5 yard pass to Palmer at the 15.   The TD pass to Shakir wasn't 15 yards downfield into the end zone.  It was just a few yards downfield that Shakir turned into a score by YAC.

 

The Bills are who they are: a team that's methodical, relentless, and opportunistic.  They had no doubt that they could stop Miami.  As a fan, you see them having to punt again, and you worry about the Fins scoring a TD.   The Bills see a punt downed on the 2 yard line as an opportunity to force the Fins to punt from inside their 12 yard line -- or better yet, an opportunity for a safety.   They see the RTK penalty as just the kind of stupid mistake desperate teams make that give them more opportunities to score.   

 

 

We will just have to agree to disagree because it is philosophical.   I'm a believer in what are some common cliches in the NFL because I think that  there are real kernels of truth in them: 

• "defense wins championships"
• "build a team from the lines out"
• "running games travel well".

Needless to say, I don't have issue with the Bills on offense.  I worry about the defense.

 

The throw to Shakir for the TD was well behind the LOS, he ran an or it motion looping behind Allen. Probably caught the ball 5 yards or more behind the LOS 

[folz]

Slightly off topic, but I didn't know where else to post this (somewhat obvious) thought I just had.

 

If you discount the final regular season game of 2024 (when our starters didn't play), the week 4 tilt in Baltimore last season was the only game that we have lost by more than 3 points since the beginning of last year. [And we were missing Milano, Bernard, and Taron Johnson in the Baltimore game, and then Oliver, Rapp, and Shakir all left the game with injuries. And Cutis Samuel was still working through a turf toe injury.]

 

The Bills were literally 8 points away from being 21-1 over the last 22 games with a Super Bowl appearance (again, not counting week 17, and obviously, in reality we were 3 points away from the SB vs. K.C.).

 

I mean, we are a VERY GOOD team right now (despite any flaws on the defense or perceived weaknesses at the WR position---not saying we can't discuss those things though---just stating the obvious, I guess).

 

Go Bills!