Way To Early 53 man Roster prediction. 45 Picked. You fill the last 8

[EmotionallyUnstable]

4 minutes ago, Delete_Delete_Delete said:

I think Samuel is almost definitely getting cut if I’m reading these Spotrac numbers correctly. 
 

My “dark horse” to get cut is Dawson Knox, which is all dependent on where Hawes is at. But looking at the cap savings between just Knox and Samuel, you’ve already freed up a large chunk to acquire a difference maker like Hendrickson or Garret. 
Its hard justifying keeping Knox at his number when they’ve already invested a 1st at the position with Kincaid to be the receiving threat, Hawes is the 6th/7th OL basically, and then Davidson can be the reserve, plus Gilliam in a pinch. 

No way a TE2 is worth what is essentially a 2yr $23 million deal (with bonuses), even if he is buddies with the QB. Dead cap is $7mil, if you take the emotions out of it, seems like a no brainer.

I don’t think you’re reading the numbers accurately. Those 2026 numbers are favorable to be cut, but not this season. 

 

Knox is essentially at 21 million dollar bath to cut at this point. No way we are just cutting ties with him for that number. He is still a good player and will play substantial snaps. There is no cap savings this year from his release.
 

Next season is a different story, with 7mil guaranteed and dead, you’d likely save 10 mil with his release in 26.
 

Curtis Samuel is pretty much the same. No cap relief this year from cutting him still owing his full salary (9mil) this year and on the hook for 3 mil guaranteed next year Thats 12 mil dead on a release this year. Next season saves 6.5 in cutting him in 26.

 

I am with you that they are not worth the numbers but there is literally zero benefit to there release unless there is a clearly better option to roster at this point. 
 

Next year they will likely be gone, to the tune of taking 16.5 mil off the current cap number, while still wasting 10 mill im dead money. 

[Delete_Delete_Delete]

6 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I don’t think you’re reading the numbers accurately. Those 2026 numbers are favorable to be cut, but not this season. 

 

Knox is essentially at 21 million dollar bath to cut at this point. No way we are just cutting ties with him for that number. He is still a good player and will play substantial snaps. There is no cap savings this year from his release.
 

Next season is a different story, with 7mil guaranteed and dead, you’d likely save 10 mil with his release in 26.
 

Curtis Samuel is pretty much the same. No cap relief this year from cutting him still owing his full salary (9mil) this year and on the hook for 3 mil guaranteed next year Thats 12 mil dead on a release this year. Next season saves 6.5 in cutting him in 26.

 

I am with you that they are not worth the numbers but there is literally zero benefit to there release unless there is a clearly better option to roster at this point. 
 

Next year they will likely be gone, to the tune of taking 16.5 mil off the current cap number, while still wasting 10 mill im dead money. 

Yeah, that’s what I get for trying to look up the numbers myself and refusing to use Chat GPT or Google AI… thanks for clarifying. 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, Delete_Delete_Delete said:

I think Samuel is almost definitely getting cut if I’m reading these Spotrac numbers correctly. 
 

My “dark horse” to get cut is Dawson Knox, which is all dependent on where Hawes is at. But looking at the cap savings between just Knox and Samuel, you’ve already freed up a large chunk to acquire a difference maker like Hendrickson or Garret. 
Its hard justifying keeping Knox at his number when they’ve already invested a 1st at the position with Kincaid to be the receiving threat, Hawes is the 6th/7th OL basically, and then Davidson can be the reserve, plus Gilliam in a pinch. 

No way a TE2 is worth what is essentially a 2yr $23 million deal (with bonuses), even if he is buddies with the QB. Dead cap is $7mil, if you take the emotions out of it, seems like a no brainer.

IMHO There is no chance Knox is getting cut, they love Knox and he is a key member of the offense 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I don't know about anyone else, but I think this Allen kid might make the team. 

[Delete_Delete_Delete]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

IMHO There is no chance Knox is getting cut, they love Knox and he is a key member of the offense 

Yeah, I deleted the post bc I had the contract years mistaken, he has one more season guaranteed bc they are locked in to a bad deal. If it weren’t for the price tag, I’m not sure what he brings to the offense that the other two don’t. His production as a pass catcher has been almost non existent, plus Kincaid was drafted specifically to fill that role, and Hawes is almost certainly a superior blocker. But I could see Knox perhaps taking a team friendly restructure/significant pay cut next year to stick around bc of his relationships here and he is plenty fine as a reserve, just not for nearly the same dollars as James Cook.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

21 minutes ago, Delete_Delete_Delete said:

Yeah, that’s what I get for trying to look up the numbers myself and refusing to use Chat GPT or Google AI… thanks for clarifying. 

All that said, I don’t think Samuel is a 100% guaranteed thing for this season. Although I think it’s unlikely, a release could be warranted if he is not up to par and Moore/Shavers give enough as WR4. Doubtful though.

 

Knox however, I feel is as close to 100% locked as it comes. 

[BuffaloRebound]

On 8/16/2025 at 10:28 PM, jwhit34 said:

I think 51 are locks:

QB - Allen, Trubisky

RB/FB - Cook, Johnson, Davis, Gilliam

OL - 5 starters, Anderson, VanDemark, Grable, 

TE - Kincaid, Knox, Hawes

WR - Shakir, Coleman, Palmer, Samuel, Moore

Offense locks: 22

 

DL - Rousseau, Bosa, Jackson, Epenesa, Solomon, Oliver, Jones, Sanders, Walker, Carter

LB - Milano, Bernard, Andreeson, Williams, Thompson

CB - Benford, White, T Johnson, Hairston (don't think they IR him), D Jackson, Strong

S - Rapp, Bishop, Hamlin, Lewis, Hancock

Defense locks: 26

Special teams: Bass, Robbins, Ferguson

ST locks: 3

 

That leaves 2 spots. One will go to OL, if Van Pran Granger comes off PUP it will be him, if he starts on IR it will be Lundt

I think Shavers is #53.

 

This needs to be revisited after tonight.  Vandemark and Moore didnt help themselves. Shavers continues to play well and Shenault continues to be by far our best kick returner.  

On defense Andreessen, Dane Jackson. Bishop. and Hamlin were really bad.  

I’d be scouring the waiver wires if I were McBeane.  The bottom 10-15 guys on the 53 man roster as of now  are pretty bad.  

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I don’t think you’re reading the numbers accurately. Those 2026 numbers are favorable to be cut, but not this season. 

 

Knox is essentially at 21 million dollar bath to cut at this point. No way we are just cutting ties with him for that number. He is still a good player and will play substantial snaps. There is no cap savings this year from his release.
 

Next season is a different story, with 7mil guaranteed and dead, you’d likely save 10 mil with his release in 26.
 

Curtis Samuel is pretty much the same. No cap relief this year from cutting him still owing his full salary (9mil) this year and on the hook for 3 mil guaranteed next year Thats 12 mil dead on a release this year. Next season saves 6.5 in cutting him in 26.

 

I am with you that they are not worth the numbers but there is literally zero benefit to there release unless there is a clearly better option to roster at this point. 
 

Next year they will likely be gone, to the tune of taking 16.5 mil off the current cap number, while still wasting 10 mill im dead money. 

Knox will be a Bills for life.  I don't think they are going to cut Knox next season. He will take a pay cut to get the adjusted salary and play here till he retires.  I believe the vibe inside OBD for Knox is very different than what the Bills Mafia sees. 

 

Then only route with Samuel for this year is the trade route, just like for Epenesa...Both could get traded for 6th or 7th round picks to just get them off the books.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Delete_Delete_Delete said:

Yeah, I deleted the post bc I had the contract years mistaken, he has one more season guaranteed bc they are locked in to a bad deal. If it weren’t for the price tag, I’m not sure what he brings to the offense that the other two don’t. His production as a pass catcher has been almost non existent, plus Kincaid was drafted specifically to fill that role, and Hawes is almost certainly a superior blocker. But I could see Knox perhaps taking a team friendly restructure/significant pay cut next year to stick around bc of his relationships here and he is plenty fine as a reserve, just not for nearly the same dollars as James Cook.

 

Knox won't play on his 2026 number. That's almost certain. There is either an extension and re-working of that deal or he will be released. 

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 8/17/2025 at 11:45 PM, BuffaloRebound said:

This needs to be revisited after tonight.  Vandemark and Moore didnt help themselves. Shavers continues to play well and Shenault continues to be by far our best kick returner.  

On defense Andreessen, Dane Jackson. Bishop. and Hamlin were really bad.  

I’d be scouring the waiver wires if I were McBeane.  The bottom 10-15 guys on the 53 man roster as of now  are pretty bad.  

 

My latest roster prediction (morning of 8/19/25), assuming full health for everyone:

 

QB (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky

RB (3): James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

FB (1): Reggie Gilliam

WR (6): Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, Tyrell Shavers, Laviska Shenault, Curtis Samuel (inactive)

TE (3): Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes

T (5): Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, Tylan Grable, Ryan Van Demark (inactive), Chase Lundt (inactive)

G (3): David Edwards, O’Cyrus Torrence, Alec Anderson

C (2): Connor McGovern, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger

DT (6): Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, T.J. Sanders, Deone Walker, DeWayne Carter (inactive), Larry Ogunjobi (suspended)

DE (6): Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, Landon Jackson, Javon Solomon, Michael Hoecht (suspended)

LB (4): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Joe Andreessen

S (5): Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Damar Hamlin, Cam Lewis, Jordan Hancock (inactive)

CB (6): Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Tre’Davious White, Max Hairston, Dorian Strong, Brandon Codrington

K (1): Tyler Bass

P (1): Brad Robbins

LS (1): Reid Ferguson

 

Cuts (36): QB Mike White, QB Shane Buechele, RB Darrynton Evans, RB Frank Gore Jr., WR Elijah Moore, WR Kaden Prather, WR K.J. Hamler, WR Stephen Gosnell, WR Kristian Wilkerson, WR Deon Cain, TE Zach Davidson, TE Keleki Latu, TE Matt Sokol, T Travis Clayton, T Richard Gouraige, G Mike Edwards, G Dan Feeney, C Kendrick Green, C Jacob Bayer, DT Casey Rogers, DT Zion Logue, DT Marcus Harris, DE Paris Shand, DE Nelson Ceaser, LB Jimmy Ciarlo, LB Keonta Jenkins, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB Shaq Thompson, S Wande Owens, S Darrick Forrest, S Tre Herndon, CB Dane Jackson, CB Daequan Hardy, CB Te’Cory Couch, CB Ja’Marcus Ingram, K Caden Davis

[Pete]

I don’t want a one trick pony like Codrington to take a roster spot over a more useful player.  Shakir can handle punts.

[dave mcbride]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6560872/2025/08/19/buffalo-bills-bubble-watch-players-cut-roster-2025/

 

Firmly on the roster (40)

QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook, RB Ty Johnson, RB Ray Davis, FB Reggie Gilliam, WR Keon Coleman, WR Joshua Palmer, WR Khalil Shakir, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox, TE Jackson Hawes, LT Dion Dawkins, LG David Edwards, C Connor McGovern, RG O’Cyrus Torrence, RT Spencer Brown, IOL Spencer Brown, OT Tylan Grable, C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, DE Greg Rousseau, DE Joey Bosa, DE A.J. Epenesa, DE Landon Jackson, DT Ed Oliver, DT DaQuan Jones, DT T.J. Sanders, DT Deone Walker, LB Terrel Bernard, LB Matt Milano, LB Dorian Williams, NCB Taron Johnson, NCB Cam Lewis, CB Christian Benford, CB Tre’Davious White, S Taylor Rapp, S Cole Bishop, S Damar Hamlin, S Jordan Hancock, K Tyler Bass, LS Reid Ferguson.

…

Looking like a good bet to make it (6)

QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Elijah Moore, DE Javon Solomon, LB Joe Andreessen, CB Dane Jackson, CB Dorian Strong

Trubisky has been the better of the two backup options over the last two weeks and seems closer than not to securing the job again. Moore has had a really nice camp and gives the Bills a strong backup option at slot receiver should anything happen to Shakir, and Moore could even play Z-receiver and return kickoffs or punts. Solomon has had a strong camp and is a likely core special teams contributor every week in 2025. Andreessen’s game against the Bears didn’t go well, but he remains the top backup middle linebacker and a staple of their special teams units, even if they brought someone else in. Jackson had some difficult moments in the preseason game against the Bears, but the Bills trust him in their system and he plays a lot of special teams. Strong has had some nice moments during camp, and though inconsistent, there is enough potential there to not risk putting him on waivers.
…

Curtis Samuel

Samuel is the biggest name on this list, along with the most guaranteed salary of anyone, but it’s been yet another disappointing summer from a Bills perspective. Last year, he dealt with a toe injury for most of the practices and was an in-game afterthought for much of the season once healthy. This year, a hamstring injury suffered on July 25 has kept him from taking a single rep of team drills since. The Bills, who grew frustrated enough with linebacker Baylon Spector’s injury history to move on mid-camp, are likely feeling similar frustrations about Samuel. The receiver’s $6.9 million salary is fully guaranteed, but to move on, the Bills wouldn’t be taking on that much more to their 2025 cap. If they feel stronger about another receiver or two that have shown well during camp, they won’t let a guaranteed salary get in the way of keeping their best 53. Samuel needs a big week to secure his spot.

[GASabresIUFan]

I only have 44 guys with 5 probables who have “earned” roster spots or were highly drafted players

 

Offense (21 + 2 probable)

2 QB - Allen, Trubisky

4 RB/FB - Cook, Davis, Johnson, Gilliam

3 TE - Knox, Kincaid, Hawes

4 WR - Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, Shavers - Shenault (WR/KR -  Probable) - Samuel and Moore should be cut

4 IOL - McGovern, Edwards, Torrence & Anderson - SVPG if not put on IR/PUP

4 OT - Brown, Dawkins, Grable (if healthy), Lundt

Defense (21 + 2 probable)

4 DE - Bosa, Rousseau, Epenesa, Jackson

4 DT - Jones, Oliver, Sanders, Walker - (Carter - probable)

3 LB - Milano, Bernard, Williams - Andreessen (probable because of ST)

5 CB - Benford, White, Hairston, T Johnson, Strong

4 S - Rapp, Bishop, Hamlin, Hancock

1 DB - Lewis

 

Specialists (2 + 1 probable) - Ferguson (LS), Bass (PK - if healthy) & Robbins (P - probable but has been inconsistent)

 

WR and the DBs are a mess because of injuries and bad play.  At WR Moore and Samuel should be gone but Samuel’s contract may keep him here.  At CB White looks old, Hairston is injured and Strong is a rookie.  Dane Jackson and Ingram aren’t worth a roster spot much less PT.  S is similar to CB.  Forrest and Herndon haven’t earn a job, Rapp and Bishop aren’t exactly healthy, and Hancock is a rookie.   Hamlin also isn’t good, but at least he is serviceable.
 

LB has questions as well.  The top 3 are solid+, but there is zero depth behind them unless Thompson can get healthy. Ulofoshio should be cut

 

On the DL -Carter is likely making the team, but shouldn’t.  He just isn't good enough.  Ogunjobi is worse and will likely be cut, suspension or no.  Solomon has a chance, but there isn’t much there either.  His chance is that the Bills keep him around until Hoecht returns.

 

Along the OL - I think the only spot open is the 5th inside spot.  That depends on SVPG health. I suspect he starts the year on the PUP list. Green could get the job as he is waiver exempt.  The OT spots are set unless Grable’s concussion persists.  Imho, Grable’s concussion is Van Denmark’s only road to a roster spot.

 

This defense needs better depth Beane!  

 

Edited August 19 by GASabresIUFan

[ganesh]

22 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

My latest roster prediction (morning of 8/19/25), assuming full health for everyone:

 

QB (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky

RB (3): James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

FB (1): Reggie Gilliam

WR (6): Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, Tyrell Shavers, Laviska Shenault, Curtis Samuel (inactive)

TE (3): Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes

T (5): Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, Tylan Grable, Ryan Van Demark (inactive), Chase Lundt (inactive)

G (3): David Edwards, O’Cyrus Torrence, Alec Anderson

C (2): Connor McGovern, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger

DT (6): Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, T.J. Sanders, Deone Walker, DeWayne Carter (inactive), Larry Ogunjobi (suspended)

DE (6): Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, Landon Jackson, Javon Solomon, Michael Hoecht (suspended)

LB (4): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Joe Andreessen

S (5): Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Damar Hamlin, Cam Lewis, Jordan Hancock (inactive)

CB (6): Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Tre’Davious White, Max Hairston, Dorian Strong, Brandon Codrington

K (1): Tyler Bass

P (1): Brad Robbins

LS (1): Reid Ferguson

 

Cuts (36): QB Mike White, QB Shane Buechele, RB Darrynton Evans, RB Frank Gore Jr., WR Elijah Moore, WR Kaden Prather, WR K.J. Hamler, WR Stephen Gosnell, WR Kristian Wilkerson, WR Deon Cain, TE Zach Davidson, TE Keleki Latu, TE Matt Sokol, T Travis Clayton, T Richard Gouraige, G Mike Edwards, G Dan Feeney, C Kendrick Green, C Jacob Bayer, DT Casey Rogers, DT Zion Logue, DT Marcus Harris, DE Paris Shand, DE Nelson Ceaser, LB Jimmy Ciarlo, LB Keonta Jenkins, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB Shaq Thompson, S Wande Owens, S Darrick Forrest, S Tre Herndon, CB Dane Jackson, CB Daequan Hardy, CB Te’Cory Couch, CB Ja’Marcus Ingram, K Caden Davis

I don't see both Shenault and Codrington making the 53 man roster.  Also, 11 DBs may be one too many...Also, Shaq Thompson likely makes the 53 man roster

[Pete]

7 hours ago, ganesh said:

I don't see both Shenault and Codrington making the 53 man roster.  Also, 11 DBs may be one too many...Also, Shaq Thompson likely makes the 53 man roster

is Shaq healthy?  

[Pete]

 

QB:Josh Allen

Mitch Trubusky

 

RB:James Cook III

Ray Davis

Ty Johnson

Reggie Gilliam

 

WR:Khalil Shakir

Joshua Palmer

Keon Coleman

Curtis Samuel

Elijah Moore

Tyrell Shavers

 

TE:Dalton Kincaid

Dawson Knox

Jackson Hawes

 

OL:Dion Dawkins

David Edwards

Connor McGovern

O'Cyrus Torrence

Spencer Brown

Tylan Grable

Ryan Van Demark

Alec Anderson

Chase Lundt

 

DE:Joey Bosa

Greg Rousseau

AJ Epenesa

Landon Jackson

Javon Solomon

 

DT:Ed Oliver

Daquan Jones

T.J. Sanders 

Deone Walker

 

LB:Matt Milano

Terrel Bernard

Dorian Williams

Shaq Thompson

Joe Andreessen

Jimmy Ciarlo

 

CB Christian Benford

Maxwell Hairston

Taron Johnson

Tre'Davious White

Dorian Strong

Ja'Marcus Ingram

 

S:Taylor Rapp

Cole Bishop

Damar Hamlin

Jordan Hancock

Cam Lewis

 

ST:Tyler Bass

Reid Ferguson

Brad Robbins

 

Roster Exempt:

DE Michael Hoecht (Suspended)

DT Larry Ogunjobi #99 (Suspended)

C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger #62 (PUP) 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

28 minutes ago, Pete said:

is Shaq healthy?  

Limited at practice yesterday. 
 

Nice go on the 53. What’d you do with Carter? Hopefully traded. Also I’m leaning towards Max to IR and Dane on the initial 53

Edited August 20 by EmotionallyUnstable

[SoMAn]

QB

Josh Allen, Mike White, Trubisky

 

RB

James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

 

FB 

Reggie Gilliam

 

WR

Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel, Shavers, Shenault

 

TE

Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes

 

OL

Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Conner McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Chase Lundt, Tylan Grable, Alec Anderson, Van Pran-Granger

 

DL

Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Joey Bosa, AJ Epenesa, Landon Jackson, Javon Solomon, TJ Sanders, Carter

 

LB'S

Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, Joe Andreeson, Dorian Williams, Shaq Thompson

 

CB

Christian Benford, Tre'Davious White, Taron Johnson, Dorian Strong, Maxwell Hairston, Cam Lewis, Ingram

 

S

Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Darrick Forrest, Jordan Hancock

 

ST

K

Tyler Bass

P

Brad Robbins

LS

Reid Ferguson

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 8/17/2025 at 4:17 PM, BuffaloBillyG said:

I don't know about anyone else, but I think this Allen kid might make the team. 

I don't know. He has Accuracy issues and Troy Aikman says those can't be fixed.

[Paup 1995MVP]

14 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

QB

Josh Allen, Mike White, Trubisky

 

RB

James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

 

FB 

Reggie Gilliam

 

WR

Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel, Shavers, Shenault

 

TE

Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes

 

OL

Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Conner McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Chase Lundt, Tylan Grable, Alec Anderson, Van Pran-Granger

 

DL

Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Joey Bosa, AJ Epenesa, Landon Jackson, Javon Solomon, TJ Sanders, Carter

 

LB'S

Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, Joe Andreeson, Dorian Williams, Shaq Thompson

 

CB

Christian Benford, Tre'Davious White, Taron Johnson, Dorian Strong, Maxwell Hairston, Cam Lewis, Ingram

 

S

Taylor Rapp, Cole Bishop, Darrick Forrest, Jordan Hancock

 

ST

K

Tyler Bass

P

Brad Robbins

LS

Reid Ferguson

 

I would get rid of Moore and Samuel, and roll with Shakir Coleman Palmer Shavers Wilkerson and Shenault.  There is plenty of size and speed with that group.

 

Moore and Samuel are small, hurt a lot and just are not very good.  

 

I would get rid of Buffalo Joe too.   #35 Cialo or whatever his name is, (West Point is what they called him on Hard Knocks) has more athleticism and upside.

 

Safety is an issue.  Would love Forrest to show something.  And Hancock when healthy will make some plays for us, and will start next year for sure.