How many wins do the Bills get without Josh?

[T master]

On 6/16/2025 at 5:35 AM, Another Fan said:

Or I’ll just say for the sake of argument average quarterback play.  
 

I’d say only 8 or 9.  
 

Point being I think too much is still put on his shoulders to carry the team.  

All depends on who you have taking his place ! If you have Nathan Peterman then I'd say your not going to win more than maybe 4 or 5 games In a season but if you have say Fitz, Tyrod, heck even EJ, maybe 9+ in a season but a lot depends on the QB ...

[folz]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

You lost me entirely on the defense.

 

The 2024 Bills defense were 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed, true.

 

But on a per drive basis, they were horrific.

 

5th best starting position, but 25th in time allowed, 23rd in plays, 26th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed.  Along with a truly ghastly 3rd down % that was 29th in the league, and a RZ% that was bang on league average at 16th. 

 

The 2024 defense was a function of the offense shortening the game, playing more ball control, and thankfully, being so hyper-efficient in some blowouts that it made the defense just one of the worst in the league rather than THE worst in the league. And we all know who that was thanks to, the guy who won MVP for dragging that offense to those heights. Mack Hollins led the team in TDs.

 

4 win roster without Josh. 

 

4 hours ago, JP51 said:

Honestly, to your point if he played like an average QB in the league the situation isnt Armageddon but I just don't think that is realistic to expect him to play like a 15,16,17 type QB. Another major factor to me is that  the defense was down right bad last year... unless it improves significantly this year I don't think a middling offense is going to win more than 6 games... so rankings etc aside... the Bills needed to score 21 points or more last year 11 times to win games (this included those that they lost) sometimes they needed over 40...   (the average team scored 21/22 points last year...   so to me the question would be how many times would the Bills score 21 points or more in a game with Mitch and crew...well, I just cant see him playing like a top 20 qb but lets set the bar at 21 points anyways...  knowing that sometimes they would need more than 21... that slides us into the 20/21 spot in over all offense. Now,  if our defense who gave up 21.6 points per game regresses without Josh, which I think it will (think about all those long time consuming drives that they had a seat last year and watched being replaced by a ton of 3 or 6 and outs...) I am not sure you get more than 6 or 7 wins overall...  To me the Josh factor extends to both sides of the ball...  so yes there were several quick strikes... but he made his money on long 5 minute beat you down drives... that to me adds up to bad things for a mediocre at best defense... now, with our additions does it get better, we will see... but going off of last year it doesnt look good to me. Now,  to your point... what would KCs record be? Or Baltimore? etc... you lose a player of that caliber you got problems... they are the molding that covers all of the imperfections on your team...  Lets hope we don't have to find out who is right here... just sayin.. 

Just made the same point... what happens when those 5-7 minute beat down drives that Josh made a living off of turn into 3 and outs... 

 

Yeah, I wasn't saying the defense was good last year and of course that will affect the offense. My point was that 4 of the 7 "average" QBs that I pointed out from last year didn't really have better defenses. So if we swapped them onto the Bills team, the defense wouldn't necessarily be a detriment to say how many wins they had with their respective teams last year. Plus, I was kind of looking at 2025, rather than 2024. I think the defense will be much improved from last year with all of the new additions. I assumed the question was if Josh were out this coming year, not last year. 

 

But, do you really think that this is a 4-win team if you put Stafford or Stroud on the 2025 team? I think they would at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Do you really think with a Stafford, Stroud, Hurts, Daniels, Cousins-type QB at the helm this team couldn't score 21 points/game? The average points per game for NFL teams last year was 22.8. Only 9 teams scored less than 20 points per game last year. Their QBs were: Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler, Jake Haerner, Caleb Williams, Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, Drake Made, Jacoby Brisett, Daniel Jones, Tommy Devito, Drew Lock, Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Billy Zappe, Desmond Ritter, and Aaron Rodgers. That is not average QB play for the most part (giving a pass for Caleb Williams and Drake Make being rookies). Also note, that is 21 QBs that played for those 9 teams last year, so there was no stability at the position for those teams (except for the Jets and Bears). For the Bills to fall to a team that can't score 20/21 points, at least based on last year, we would need bad QBs rotating in and out. The OP's original question was with average QB play. And do you really think the Bills have/had a less-talented roster than the Jets, Saints, Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Raiders, Patriots, Giants, and Browns?

 

As to Trubisky, yeah, I'm not confident that he could give us consistent, average QB play for a whole season either. But then again that changes the OP's original query. If Trubisky couldn't deliver average play, sure we are probably a 6-8 win team. If he did give us average play, or if we had one of the other average (not bad) QBs that I mentioned, then I say we are still a 9-10 win team fighting for the playoffs. With Josh we are a 12-14 win team. So, I would say, without Josh we lose 3-5 more games.

 

The Bills falling to a 4-win team without Josh seems a bit ridiculous with one of the best O-lines, a top 10 RB room, above average TEs, and a decent WR room, plus an improved defense. It is almost saying that Josh wins 9-10 games a year without any help from his teammates. Yes, Josh is already an all-time great QB, but he is not doing it alone, despite the lack of other current All-Pros on the team.

[JP51]

21 minutes ago, folz said:

 

 

Yeah, I wasn't saying the defense was good last year and of course that will affect the offense. My point was that 4 of the 7 "average" QBs that I pointed out from last year didn't really have better defenses. So if we swapped them onto the Bills team, the defense wouldn't necessarily be a detriment to say how many wins they had with their respective teams last year. Plus, I was kind of looking at 2025, rather than 2024. I think the defense will be much improved from last year with all of the new additions. I assumed the question was if Josh were out this coming year, not last year. 

 

But, do you really think that this is a 4-win team if you put Stafford or Stroud on the 2025 team? I think they would at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Do you really think with a Stafford, Stroud, Hurts, Daniels, Cousins-type QB at the helm this team couldn't score 21 points/game? The average points per game for NFL teams last year was 22.8. Only 9 teams scored less than 20 points per game last year. Their QBs were: Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler, Jake Haerner, Caleb Williams, Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, Drake Made, Jacoby Brisett, Daniel Jones, Tommy Devito, Drew Lock, Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Billy Zappe, Desmond Ritter, and Aaron Rodgers. That is not average QB play for the most part (giving a pass for Caleb Williams and Drake Make being rookies). Also note, that is 21 QBs that played for those 9 teams last year, so there was no stability at the position for those teams (except for the Jets and Bears). For the Bills to fall to a team that can't score 20/21 points, at least based on last year, we would need bad QBs rotating in and out. The OP's original question was with average QB play. And do you really think the Bills have/had a less-talented roster than the Jets, Saints, Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Raiders, Patriots, Giants, and Browns?

 

As to Trubisky, yeah, I'm not confident that he could give us consistent, average QB play for a whole season either. But then again that changes the OP's original query. If Trubisky couldn't deliver average play, sure we are probably a 6-8 win team. If he did give us average play, or if we had one of the other average (not bad) QBs that I mentioned, then I say we are still a 9-10 win team fighting for the playoffs. With Josh we are a 12-14 win team. So, I would say, without Josh we lose 3-5 more games.

 

The Bills falling to a 4-win team without Josh seems a bit ridiculous with one of the best O-lines, a top 10 RB room, above average TEs, and a decent WR room, plus an improved defense. It is almost saying that Josh wins 9-10 games a year without any help from his teammates. Yes, Josh is already an all-time great QB, but he is not doing it alone, despite the lack of other current All-Pros on the team.

Yeah I am not thinking 4 wins... I am thinking 6 max 7.... thats a 10-12 pick... 4 can really be top 3...  Lets just hope we never find out the reality behind our theories.. 

[Gregg]

SI interview with Allen.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/q-a-josh-allen-on-backing-up-mvp-season-tush-push-ban-and-new-business-deal/ar-AA1GSV6o?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=86d6b94b00694fada88deff1ae504e80&ei=20

[Prospector]

3 games and we get the number 1 pick! Do it Beane!

[frostbitmic]

Without Josh they'll be golfing when the playoffs start.

[folz]

47 minutes ago, JP51 said:

Yeah I am not thinking 4 wins... I am thinking 6 max 7.... thats a 10-12 pick... 4 can really be top 3...  Lets just hope we never find out the reality behind our theories.. 

 

I was kind of responding to two posts at once. FireChans was the one who said 4-wins. Sorry to make it appear that that was your call as well. 

[Don Otreply]

Super Bowl, 

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, folz said:

The Bills falling to a 4-win team without Josh seems a bit ridiculous with one of the best O-lines, a top 10 RB room, above average TEs, and a decent WR room, plus an improved defense. It is almost saying that Josh wins 9-10 games a year without any help from his teammates. Yes, Josh is already an all-time great QB, but he is not doing it alone, despite the lack of other current All-Pros on the team.

No I think it’s a reality.

 

The WRs are actual garbage league wide. 
 

The amount of offschedule plays that Josh makes that makes his receiving options and his OL look good is criminally underrated imo.

 

Those plays largely end up the difference between winning or losing games like the Colts game.

 

4 win team without Josh. I stand by it.

[folz]

54 minutes ago, FireChans said:

No I think it’s a reality.

 

The WRs are actual garbage league wide. 
 

The amount of offschedule plays that Josh makes that makes his receiving options and his OL look good is criminally underrated imo.

 

Those plays largely end up the difference between winning or losing games like the Colts game.

 

4 win team without Josh. I stand by it.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on the WRs and win total without Josh. I think the WR group is decent/average rather than garbage and I think the RBs and TEs with the WRs give Josh plenty of weapons. Just mo.

 

And it is a very fair point that Josh makes both the O-line and receiving targets better. He avoids sacks that many QBs wouldn't be able to. He is accurate, can make all of the throws, and as you said, makes a lot of off-script plays. He definitely makes those groups better, I just don't think that they would be completely terrible without him. I think there is still a lot of talent on the offense, particularly the offensive line and RBs. It's just so hard to quantify how much better Josh makes them, or what they would look like with a different QB.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, folz said:

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on the WRs and win total without Josh. I think the WR group is decent/average rather than garbage and I think the RBs and TEs with the WRs give Josh plenty of weapons. Just mo.

 

And it is a very fair point that Josh makes both the O-line and receiving targets better. He avoids sacks that many QBs wouldn't be able to. He is accurate, can make all of the throws, and as you said, makes a lot of off-script plays. He definitely makes those groups better, I just don't think that they would be completely terrible without him. I think there is still a lot of talent on the offense, particularly the offensive line and RBs. It's just so hard to quantify how much better Josh makes them, or what they would look like with a different QB.

Okay

 

list all the nfl teams that you think have worse WR groups than the Bills. I will expect a definitive answer of AT LEAST 13 to consider us decent/average.

[foreboding]

Based on the 20 years before Josh...I'd say 6-8.

[folz]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Okay

 

list all the nfl teams that you think have worse WR groups than the Bills. I will expect a definitive answer of AT LEAST 13 to consider us decent/average.

 

I'll admit that how I feel about our WR group is a bit of a projection. I think Keon is going to be very good this year, but I can understand that some are not sold on him. I don't expect Keon to be a #1 WR or anything, just improvement. He had 556 yards and 4 TDs last year. If you prorate the stats to a 17-game year (because he missed 4.5 games last year), he'd be at 756 yards and 5 TDs. That would be without any improvement, just staying healthy. And I think he can definitely improve on where he was at the end of the season, after the injury...or in the first few games of his career. I don't think it's crazy to project Keon to maybe 800-850 yards and 6 TDs.

 

Khalil easily projects for around 800 yards and 5 TDs. [He had 821 and 4 TDs last year]

 

I have always liked Curtis Samuel as a player, but again, I can understand that others are down on him for last year and wonder if he can stay healthy. And I don't expect Palmer or Moore to become someone they are not or haven't been, but imo, they are still an upgrade from Hollins/Cooper (based on snap counts and production from last year, as well as age and athleticism). But all of those guys have proven that they are capable of at least 600-yard seasons with a few TDs.

 

Our RBs and TEs had 1,526 receiving yards last year. So, if Keon and Khalil come in around 800 yards each, and the other three averaged 500 yards each, that would be 4,626 yards (if the RBs and TEs stayed the same). More than Josh has ever thrown for. I'm not saying these are the best receivers he's had, or that Josh will actually reach that lofty number (hopefully we won't need to pass that much), but with how Brady runs the offense and how Josh distributes the ball, this should be a very good unit of weapons overall imo (meaning all units combined: RBs, TEs, and WRs). But, I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

 

 

As to the ranking of our receivers vs. other teams, I don't have the energy to do a full comparison of every team myself, so I Googled it. Unfortunately, I couldn't find too many rankings:

 

I know we don't like PFF, but they have our receivers ranked at #19 (13 teams worse: Seattle, Green Bay, Denver, New Orleans, NY Giants, Las Vegas, Carolina, LA Chargers, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, New England, and Cleveland).

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-receiving-corps-rankings-eagles

 

Mike Clay of ESPN gave Unit Ranking Grades. Not sure how he gets the grades, but he has five teams at 9 (his highest ranking), six teams at 8, two teams at 7, ten teams at 6, three teams at 5, four teams at 4, two teams at 3. He has the Bills WR corps at 6. That means he has 13 teams better than the Bills, 10 teams on par with the Bills, and and 9 teams worse. Provided the Bills aren't the worst of the ten #6 teams, that's pretty much right in the middle as well.

[The 9 teams definitively below the Bills in his rankings are: New England, Tennessee, Dallas, Arizona, San Fran, NY Jets, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Denver.]

 

 

So, both lists have these same six teams definitively below the Bills (New England, Tennessee, Jets, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Denver). And at least one of the lists had these ten teams below the Bills (Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, NY Giants, Carolina, LA Chargers, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Arizona, and San Fran). So, that is a possible 16 teams below the Bills (depending on who is doing the ranking). Again, it isn't anything definitive by any means, but I think it at least shows that we aren't complete bottom of the barrel.

 

Again, I agree that the Bills' WR group is not a great unit by any means (in comparison to other teams), but I am looking at the overall weapons and how the Bills want to run their offense. We were 49/51 run/pass-split last year. And the offense is about scheming guys open and letting Josh make decisions, rather than forcing the ball to a stud WR. I think our unit is better than last year's unit, and despite passing yards being down overall last season, the offense still scored more points than any previous Bills offense (even with Diggs and Beasley at their peak).

 

I don't know, I may be overly optimistic and you may be overly pessimistic---but hopefully reality will be no worse than the median between us.