Are Fan Expectations Too High for Keon Coleman?

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, stevestojan said:

This is his year to put up or literally shut up. 

Why? Was he talking loud ?

 Never heard him proclaim to be more than he is.

a strong step forward with his Progress is fine by me. I honestly expect that fom him this season

[Bullfrog]

He looks better coming into camp than I thought he would. I will let the kid prove to me what he can be. I have no expectations. He is a second round high risk high reward. It's up to Keon how good he can be. Honestly I was impressed with his drive when he said his game was trash last season. The kid expected more from himself also. I respect that.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Joe Marino said:

His numbers will be better than your projection, not in small part due to the fact that he has Josh Allen.

Is this Joe Marino of the Locked On podcast? 

[Big Turk]

Coleman was starting to come on before the injury...I think he will have a much better year than people think this year.

 

Clearly still has a lot of upside and room to grow as a player.

[Mike in Horseheads]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.

 

Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.

 

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

 

Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):

 

Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs

 

Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs

 

Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs

 

The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.

 

So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:

 

29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs

 

There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.

 

That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:

 

2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs

 

What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?

 

People here had it in for him from the minute he was drafted for whatever reason.  If he didn't get injured he would have had a decent season.

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

 

 

I'm not sure I agree with the bolded, this off season.  I think the additions of Palmer and Moore are moves Beane made to guard against the need to depend on Keon.  He's going to need to earn his playing time / "bigger role" / define his role.

 

 

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

As far as fan expectations being realistic - Beane has a draft pattern of trying to overcompensate for drafting late in the first by choosing high ceiling/low floor kind of guys.  

 

I'd disagree slightly and say Beane's pattern is drafting high character players and IMO, sometimes has passed on higher ceiling guys.

 

He's not overcompensating, it's what teams historically do that draft late in the first.  You try to find a player that out produces that slot.

 

 

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by White Linen

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 hours ago, Joe Marino said:

His numbers will be better than your projection, not in small part due to the fact that he has Josh Allen.

Interesting theory. And who was tossing him the ball last year?

 

If his numbers are better this year it's most likely because:

 

1. He stays healthy 

2. It's his second season in the system and he likely knows a bit more.

[BillsFanForever19]

I don't know. I think everyone's *interested* in how Coleman's looking and has hopes that he'll take step forwards.

 

But I think if there's people on this board who are expecting him to be great this year or are over hyping him, they're the minority around here. There's way more negativity surrounding Coleman than positivity.

 

Me, personally, I'm just in wait and see mode. I wouldn't be surprised if he took steps forward. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't.

Edited 8 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[transplantbillsfan]

No they aren't. Prior to Keon's injury he was on pace for 800 yards and looked like a promising rookie. I think Joe Marino did a podcast recently outlining Coleman's pre injury stats compared with all the other rookies and he was top 3-5 by almost all metrics.

 

Nothing wrong with high expectations for him.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Coleman was starting to come on before the injury...I think he will have a much better year than people think this year.

 

Clearly still has a lot of upside and room to grow as a player.

This seems to be a narrative but one I don’t entirely agree with.  While he did have his two best games against TEN and SEA, he wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire.  Coleman had only had 5 and 4 receptions for 70 and 125 yards respectively.  

I’d agree that he does have some upside, but I’m not sure that it’s as high as some fans expectations 

 

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Is this Joe Marino of the Locked On podcast? 

Yes or no?

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

This seems to be a narrative but one I don’t entirely agree with.  While he did have his two best games against TEN and SEA, he wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire.  Coleman had only had 5 and 4 receptions for 70 and 125 yards respectively.  

I’d agree that he does have some upside, but I’m not sure that it’s as high as some fans expectations 

 

 

Without injury he was on pace for about 750 yards, which would have been a pretty good rookie season.

 

Still ended up with over 550. Not a stretch to see him at 800 this year.

Edited 7 hours ago by Big Turk

[JohnNord]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Without injury he was on pace for about 750 yards, which would have been a pretty good rookie season.

 

Still ended up with over 550. Not a stretch to see him at 800 this year.

800 yards would be a very good season 

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.

 

Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.

 

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

 

Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):

 

Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs

 

Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs

 

Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs

 

The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.

 

So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:

 

29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs

 

There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.

 

That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:

 

2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs

 

What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?

 

seems like an odd range of picks/years without context 

[PonyBoy]

No. 

 

He was what the 30th pick? Considered one of the top 30 players in the world to choose from. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for him because he's a Bill. 

 

However, he's playing with probably one of the greatest QB's in the NFL now or ever. 

 

If he can't be very good to great

with Josh and this current Bills team, he never will be. 

 

Happy Father's Day to the dads here today btw 🍻

[Delete_Delete_Delete]

He’s a more athletic version of Gabe Davis with better hands… Josh will make it work if Keon stays healthy. I think we’ll see him emerge as a consistent redzone presence this season. I’m going over 6 TDs on the season, feels like 8-9…

[JohnNord]

43 minutes ago, PonyBoy said:

No. 

 

He was what the 30th pick? Considered one of the top 30 players in the world to choose from. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for him because he's a Bill. 

 

However, he's playing with probably one of the greatest QB's in the NFL now or ever. 

 

If he can't be very good to great

with Josh and this current Bills team, he never will be. 

 

Happy Father's Day to the dads here today btw 🍻

He wasn’t a first round pick technically…. He was #33 overall or R2 pick #1.  I’m with you on improvement - just not sure his potential is as high as what some are hoping for but we’ll see

[Nephilim17]

He should do better this season for the simple reason that he was asked to be a deep threat far too much last year — which is not his forte — and he have Moore and Palmers now to stretch the field and let Keon be a shorter threat.

 

His numbers are actually a lot better with short catches and the YAC he can get there.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

seems like an odd range of picks/years without context 

If you read the full article it goes into detail.  He chose 2002, because that was the time of the modern league re-alignment.  He stopped at 2022 because he wanted to make sure draft picks had a sample size of multiple seasons as opposed to your Ladd’s etc.  

 

He chose picks 28-35 to get an approximate range of selections starting with pick #28 which was Buffalo’s original selection.  

This is hardly a predictive science.  It just shares how WR’s selected at the end of R1/beginning of R2 have performed.  

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6328884/2025/05/02/bills-mailbag-brandon-beane-nfl-draft-wr-questions/?source=user_shared_article The Satchel: Much ado about Brandon Beane’s draft, wide receivers, and more

Edited 6 hours ago by JohnNord

[EmotionallyUnstable]

 

[Billy Claude]

I don't think the comparison in the original article is very useful.  First, 2002 was before the passing game explosion so receiving numbers back then would be lower.  Secondly, why compare someone's rookie season to career averages?  Third medians are more useful than averages since averages will be more affected by complete busts and injuries.

 

There were 16 WR drafted from #28  to #38 since 2014.  6 of the picks were last year.  Coleman was 11th out of 16 in receptions and 7th out of 11th in 16 in yards.  That pretty much put him as an average late first/early second rookie WR.  The issue is that the Bills could have picked two of the players who did much better statistically than him including McConkey who had the best rookie WR season in a long time. Here are the rankings:

 

By receptions

 

1. Ladd McConkey 2024  82

2. Kelvin Benjamin 2014 73

3. Tee Higgins 2020 67

4. Xavier Worthy 2024 59

5. Deebo Samuel 2019 57

6. Xavier Legette 2024 49

7.  Elijah Moore 2021 43

8. Christian Watson 2022 41

9. Michael Pittman 2020 13

10. Rickey Pearsall 2024 31

11. Keon Coleman 2024 29

12. Zay Jones 2017 27

13. Phillip Dorsett 2015 18

14. N'Keal Harry 2018 12

15. Ja'Lynn Polk 2024 12

16. Devin Smith 2015 9

 

By yards

 

1. Ladd McConkey 2024  1149

2. Kelvin Benjamin 2014 1008

3. Tee Higgins 2020 908

4. Deebo Samuel 2019 802

5. Xavier Worthy 2024 638

6. Christian Watson 2022 611

7. Keon Coleman 2024 556

8.  Elijah Moore 2021 538

9. Michael Pittman 2020 503

10. Xavier Legette 2024 497

11. Rickey Pearsall 2024 400

12. Zay Jones 2017 316

13. Phillip Dorsett 2015 225

14. Devin Smith 2015 115

15. N'Keal Harry 2018 105

16. Ja'Lynn Polk 2024 87

 

The good thing is that the pre 2024 receivers had an average of 6 more receivers and 75 more yards in their second seasons.

Edited 6 hours ago by Billy Claude