Record with and without [insert player here]

[uticaclub]

Without Allen they are a 3 win team

 

One out of the other 52 doesn't move the needle

Edited yesterday at 11:45 AM by uticaclub

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Move over, Jesus!  It's time for

HWGD!

Huh-wug-id.

How Would Geno Do?  A new metric!  I like it! 

You see things all of the time that are like, “what would _______ record be if you took (insert QB here) off the roster?” The answer is, “it depends.” Are you replacing ______ with the current backup? Jameis? Peterman? Mason Rudolph? The Geno Smith scale basically assumes that you would be giving that team as mediocre QB play as possible. Again, that’s not meant to be insulting. It’s basically saying that the QB isn’t necessarily elevating or hurting your team. He’s just kind of there as a net neutral. I feel like it’s the fairest way to tell how good a roster actually is. If you replaced Josh Allen with Peterman, for example, the Bills might win 2 games. If you replaced him with Geno, they may win 7. If you replaced him with Lamar, they still win 13. 

[Gregg]

23 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Without Allen they are a 3 win team

 

One out of the other 52 doesn't move the needle

 

I give McDermott a little more credit than that. He did coach them to the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor as his QB. Granted it took a Dalton to Boyd miracle in Baltimore to help but he still managed enough wins to get them in. The current day Bills are better than that Bills team even without Allen.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

I give McDermott a little more credit than that. He did coach them to the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor as his QB. Granted it took a Dalton to Boyd miracle in Baltimore to help but he still managed enough wins to get them in. The current day Bills are better than that Bills team even without Allen.

Are they? I’m not saying that they definitely are or aren’t but they are pretty close IMO. I’d say both teams had good OLs (slight advantage to present), 2017 better at RB, both teams are bad at WR (advantage to present), 2017 better on DL & DB, present better at TE & LB. Present is better at OC & 2017 was better at DC. 2017 had more “elite” players (guys that are top 5-10 at their position). Josh Allen is the difference.

[uticaclub]

16 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

I give McDermott a little more credit than that. He did coach them to the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor as his QB. Granted it took a Dalton to Boyd miracle in Baltimore to help but he still managed enough wins to get them in. The current day Bills are better than that Bills team even without Allen.

Tyrod is .500 QB and he won 8 games with him that year (the Colts snow game was Peterman/Webb); our backup QBs aren't on Tyrods level.

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Are they? I’m not saying that they definitely are or aren’t but they are pretty close IMO. I’d say both teams had good OLs (slight advantage to present), 2017 better at RB, both teams are bad at WR (advantage to present), 2017 better on DL & DB, present better at TE & LB. Present is better at OC & 2017 was better at DC. 2017 had more “elite” players (guys that are top 5-10 at their position). Josh Allen is the difference.

 

If I remember correctly going into that season many of the "experts" had predicted the Bills to be one worst teams in the league. That year might have been McDermott's best year coaching as he got the most out of a team that wasn't very talented. 

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

If I remember correctly going into that season many of the "experts" had predicted the Bills to be one worst teams in the league. That year might have been McDermott's best year coaching as he got the most out of a team that wasn't very talented. 

They were projected to be pretty bad. This Bills team, sans Allen, plus prime Tyrod, would be projected to be pretty bad. I don’t think that the records would be much different. I did the comparison of position groups above. Feel free to disagree with any of them…

[Ga boy]

5 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

They make a SB WITH Benford 

Agree 💯. Might wanna add a healthy Kincaid and Coleman.

[transient]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They were projected to be pretty bad. This Bills team, sans Allen, plus prime Tyrod, would be projected to be pretty bad. I don’t think that the records would be much different. I did the comparison of position groups above. Feel free to disagree with any of them…

IMO, utilizing the KJ HWGD avg QB metric and using Tyrod and the 2017 Bills as the comparator, I see the 2024 team with Tyrod being a 7-9 win team due to the OL, Cook, and Tyrod's mobility. With Geno, I think they're a 4 win team at best due to the limited skill at WR. I don't think the lack of skill at WR hurts Tyrod as much because he was already frustratingly reluctant to throw the ball, Geno on the other hand would be screwed.

[FireChans]

37 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

If I remember correctly going into that season many of the "experts" had predicted the Bills to be one worst teams in the league. That year might have been McDermott's best year coaching as he got the most out of a team that wasn't very talented. 

Josh Allen won MVP because he dragged this crew to 13 wins. 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You’ll be able to tell who overrates the Bills roster the most by applying “wins without Allen.” This isn’t a very good football team, lacking playmakers, without Allen. 
 

I have this metric that I apply to teams to determine quality of roster outside of QB. It’s the Geno Smith scale. Basically, you pull off the starting QB of each team and replace him with Geno Amith. I think Geno is about the most average QB in football. That’s not meant as in insult. It means that he’s right around the middle. If you replaced Lamar, for example, with Geno, I think that the Ravens still win 10ish games. He might win 11 or 12 on Philly. The Bills would win maybe 7. 

The way I interpreted this post was replacing player X with a league average player at that position and what is the Bills record.

 

I guess I think Eddy O and Greg are quite overrated. 

 

Folks are now taking for granted all the things Josh does to keep the offense moving. How many of Keon's and Mack's yards last year came from Josh eluding a rush and heaving a ball downfield after a scramble drill?  We aren't getting that with a league average QB. 

[JP51]

If you replied Josh is the only one who significantly moves the needle... I agree with you. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

Tyrod is .500 QB and he won 8 games with him that year (the Colts snow game was Peterman/Webb); our backup QBs aren't on Tyrods level.

 

Our 2017 roster isn't at our 2025 roster's level though. 

 

If you are replacing Josh with a scrub, then yea, they are a 3 or 4 win team. But I don't think that is the right comparison. The right comparison is the Geno Smith type comparison @Kirby Jackson articulated. Sure, they are varying qualities of backup QB in the NFL. But any team required to go to its backup for an entire season is going to e under .500. Had the Eagles started Kenny Pickett for 17 games in 2024 they are a below .500 football team. 

[TBBills Fan]

We probably win 6 games last year without Allen

[Fleezoid]

1. 7

2. 12

3. 12

4. 13

5. 13

 

Offense carries the day. Pull any one defensive player and very little impact. 

[uticaclub]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Our 2017 roster isn't at our 2025 roster's level though. 

 

If you are replacing Josh with a scrub, then yea, they are a 3 or 4 win team. But I don't think that is the right comparison. The right comparison is the Geno Smith type comparison @Kirby Jackson articulated. Sure, they are varying qualities of backup QB in the NFL. But any team required to go to its backup for an entire season is going to e under .500. Had the Eagles started Kenny Pickett for 17 games in 2024 they are a below .500 football team. 

Still, give Geno that WR corp and that defense not playing with a lead; I don’t think we would be very good. There’s a reason Josh won MVP

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I guess I think Eddy O and Greg are quite overrated. 

 

Folks are now taking for granted all the things Josh does to keep the offense moving. How many of Keon's and Mack's yards last year came from Josh eluding a rush and heaving a ball downfield after a scramble drill?  We aren't getting that with a league average QB. 

That’s more than fair and I agree. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to say, “if league average QB were inserted ______ play would have looked different.” There’s no perfect method and style of play certainly comes into play. I’m just not sure that there’s a great way to account for that. That’s especially true because a bunch of teams would have been built differently with a different style of QB. Geno is a different player than Kyler but they both are around the middle of the league. 
 

The only way that I can think of is that, “Geno Smith method.” Basically, zoom out and say, “if the guy back there was perfectly average, how good would they be?” There’s different skill sets within the average guys but as soon as we start applying the best fitting skill set we are kind of taking away the point of perfectly average. Another way to look at it is if QB play across the league was EXACTLY the same, who would win? The Bills would be picking in the top 5-10 in this scenario, IMO.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I have this metric that I apply to teams to determine quality of roster outside of QB. It’s the Geno Smith scale. Basically, you pull off the starting QB of each team and replace him with Geno Smith.

 

7-9 last year IMO (I'll remove the final Pats game). I have us losing to Arizona, Jets on the road, Miami at home, Indy, KC, and Detroit with league average QB play.

 

The 2017 team isn't a good comparison. The level of competition has grown significantly since then and we're playing a 1st place schedule. That team playing the 2024 schedule would not have even been in the wildcard conversation.

[Big Turk]

Without Josh Allen 7-10.  Without anyone else, who cares, not much difference

[WotAGuy]

Number of games they would have won if I had consistently taken the Bills’ moneyline: 

0

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

Still, give Geno that WR corp and that defense not playing with a lead; I don’t think we would be very good. There’s a reason Josh won MVP

 

No, we wouldn't but on last year's schedule we'd have won 7 or 8 games. That means Josh is worth 5 or 6 wins himself. I think that is at the top end of what difference franchise QBs make on the W-L record above league average replacement. Probably a game or two ahead of Lamar and Mahomes. The only other guy I might have on Josh's level from 2024 is Burrow. They went 9-8 but genuinely are a 3 or 4 win team with a league average replacement because their D last year was genuinely horrific.