Bills on Hard Knocks

[MikePJ76]

8 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

People also like to point out how teams haven’t had much success in hard knocks seasons. But they fail to mention that under the old rules you had to be a non-playoff team to appear. And frequently the teams being forced to appear had a recent top 3 pick added to their team. These were not strong teams to begin with. 

Usually.  There are some years where teams were coming off good seasons.  I think the ravens were on as the first team after winning the Super Bowl in 01.

 

Dallas was on in 08 after going 13-3 and having like 9 all pros in 07.

 

generally it has been bad teams though.

[Simon]

24 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

The one good sign is the team seems to lack “that guy” who is going to ***** over being on TV and just embarrass themselves, the team and the fan base. 
 

 

   

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Get real.  It's going to be the #1 storyline at the beginning of the show.   Of course it should be talked about.   That's how these things work.

 

No its not how these things work on Hard Knocks.  You clearly don't watch the show or pay attention if you do.  

 

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The Bills are normally a very low drama organization(outside of 2022 which was a drama sh!it storm).

 

So Brandon Beane going on the offensive with local media and then going on a tour to yuck it up with out-of-town media about it while patting himself on the back about how great a job he's done with the WR corps is good drama to build on.   Not a lot of GM's put their neck out like that.   

 

This will likely not be covered or just be a blurb in the show, they don't go back and review the past, the show is about training camp.  

 

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And then they open up with the Ravens,  who literally exposed the Bills WR corps last fall and sent Beane scrambling to trade for Amari Cooper a month ahead of the deadline.   The Ravens then later held Allen to a pathetic 127 yards passing in a home playoff game where they physically outplayed the Bills but lost because of a comedy of errors on their part..........I mean, the WR drama could come to a head right away.  

 

LMAO...now I really know you don't watch the show.  

 

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The potential entertainment value beginning this season story with Hard Knocks is enormous.   By the end of that 1st game Beane could look like a genius or already be getting panned nationally if they struggle to throw the ball against Baltimore for a 3rd straight time.

 

Again...you don't seem to grasp the concept of what Hard Knocks is.

 

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Everything about this season is setting up to be incredibly entertaining.   Love them getting Hard Knocks this year,  they have a seasoned leadership group and coaching staff and areready for it, IMO.   And so glad they didn't know they were going to be on it until Beane added some spice to it with his "I signed Joshua Palmer" swagger.😂

 

This is going to be great.

 

 

Does seem to be youre rooting for failure though...so theres that.

[The Red King]

59 minutes ago, FormerLV-BILLS said:

Right, because the "Non-Distraction" route has yielded how many Superbowls for us?  Like it matters.

 

I have yet to win a marathon.  So, doing what I've been doing hasn't yielded anything yet.  Why not try breaking my leg first? 😆

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, The Red King said:

 

I have yet to win a marathon.  So, doing what I've been doing hasn't yielded anything yet.  Why not try breaking my leg first? 😆

 

 

So if a month of HBO following the Bills around in the preseason is equivalent to "breaking their legs"..........how did Mahomes survive being followed around by Netflix for an entire season and win the Super Bowl that year?  

 

It's irrational to have such anxiety over Hard Knocks for a team with a 9th year HC and GM and 8th year QB.    They are the definition of a team that should be ready for this and yet still interesting enough to be worthwhile for average NFL fans to watch.   

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No its not how these things work on Hard Knocks.  You clearly don't watch the show or pay attention if you do.  

 

 

This will likely not be covered or just be a blurb in the show, they don't go back and review the past, the show is about training camp.  

 

 

LMAO...now I really know you don't watch the show.  

 

 

Again...you don't seem to grasp the concept of what Hard Knocks is.

 

 

 

Does seem to be youre rooting for failure though...so theres that.

 

 

I repeat, you are claiming the questions about the Bills WR corps "will likely not be covered" on Hard Knocks.

 

Mmmkay.  

 

I suspect you will be backpedaling on that the same way you did when you started that thread last spring to tell us how nobody but you understood how great Khalil Shakir was going to be in 2024 and then walked it back in the fine print so that 900 yards would meet the criteria.   😂 

[dcinmuncie]

Maybe I’m in the minority but I love being ‘under the radar’

 

I LOVED national pundits counting us out last offseason 

I HATED being hyped at the beginning of the 2022 season and I HATE the hype and attention we are getting now 

 

I feel it’s bad ju ju and I hope I’m dead wrong 

[RoscoeParrish]

18 minutes ago, dcinmuncie said:

Maybe I’m in the minority but I love being ‘under the radar’

 

I LOVED national pundits counting us out last offseason 

I HATED being hyped at the beginning of the 2022 season and I HATE the hype and attention we are getting now 

 

I feel it’s bad ju ju and I hope I’m dead wrong 

The fact of the matter is that once it comes postseason, no one is under the radar.

 

The Bills are going to have lofty expectations every season because they are a great team with a great QB. Even last year, when there was expectation that we would be worse, by the time the second or third playoff games rolls around, that’s out the window.

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I repeat, you are claiming the questions about the Bills WR corps "will likely not be covered" on Hard Knocks.

 

Mmmkay.  

 

I suspect you will be backpedaling on that the same way you did when you started that thread last spring to tell us how nobody but you understood how great Khalil Shakir was going to be in 2024 and then walked it back in the fine print so that 900 yards would meet the criteria.   😂 

 

Never back pedaled on anything I have ever said about Shakir since the day he was drafted.

 

But it still makes my nipples dance having so much free rent your head and watching you obsess over me...never change boo 😘

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, dcinmuncie said:

Maybe I’m in the minority but I love being ‘under the radar’

 

I LOVED national pundits counting us out last offseason 

I HATED being hyped at the beginning of the 2022 season and I HATE the hype and attention we are getting now 

 

I feel it’s bad ju ju and I hope I’m dead wrong 

 

 

I don't know if you are actually in the minority or not........but I think it shows that you probably just care too much about the outside perception of the team when there really is no rational reason to.    But irrational things like worrying about outside perception of the team or whether officiating is unfairly biased against your team bonds fans to the product.   It's an advanced suspension of disbelief.  

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I repeat, you are claiming the questions about the Bills WR corps "will likely not be covered" on Hard Knocks.

 

Mmmkay.  

 

I suspect you will be backpedaling on that the same way you did when you started that thread last spring to tell us how nobody but you understood how great Khalil Shakir was going to be in 2024 and then walked it back in the fine print so that 900 yards would meet the criteria.   😂 

 

I don't think it would be something that would be covered... except for that WGR interview. Because of that, it's definitely something that will be brought up when they're highlighting Beane and talking to him.

 

Actually, now that I think about it, myself and a couple others thought at the time that it felt like a planned thing by Beane as a publicity stunt. Highlighting it on the Draft Embedded made me think that further. Now I'm starting to wonder if Beane didn't know this was coming down the pipeline and did it in part bc he thought it might make good TV for Hard Knocks.

 

I put the likelihood that the WGR clip is shown and they discuss the discourse over WR at like 95%

[Ya Digg?]

24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't know if you are actually in the minority or not........but I think it shows that you probably just care too much about the outside perception of the team when there really is no rational reason to.    But irrational things like worrying about outside perception of the team or whether officiating is unfairly biased against your team bonds fans to the product.   It's an advanced suspension of disbelief.  

The Bills have been a top 2-3 team for the last 6 or so years….why would you think they would be “under the radar”?

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Get real.  It's going to be the #1 storyline at the beginning of the show.   Of course it should be talked about.   That's how these things work.

 

The Bills are normally a very low drama organization(outside of 2022 which was a drama sh!it storm).

 

So Brandon Beane going on the offensive with local media and then going on a tour to yuck it up with out-of-town media about it while patting himself on the back about how great a job he's done with the WR corps is good drama to build on.   Not a lot of GM's put their neck out like that.   

 

And then they open up with the Ravens,  who literally exposed the Bills WR corps last fall and sent Beane scrambling to trade for Amari Cooper a month ahead of the deadline.   The Ravens then later held Allen to a pathetic 127 yards passing in a home playoff game where they physically outplayed the Bills but lost because of a comedy of errors on their part..........I mean, the WR drama could come to a head right away.  

 

The potential entertainment value beginning this season story with Hard Knocks is enormous.   By the end of that 1st game Beane could look like a genius or already be getting panned nationally if they struggle to throw the ball against Baltimore for a 3rd straight time.

 

Everything about this season is setting up to be incredibly entertaining.   Love them getting Hard Knocks this year,  they have a seasoned leadership group and coaching staff and areready for it, IMO.   And so glad they didn't know they were going to be on it until Beane added some spice to it with his "I signed Joshua Palmer" swagger.😂

 

This is going to be great.

The Bills have to approve everything that HBO's allowed to put on all the episodes so it's up to them when it comes to the WR discussion.

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Get real.  It's going to be the #1 storyline at the beginning of the show.   Of course it should be talked about.   That's how these things work.

 

The Bills are normally a very low drama organization(outside of 2022 which was a drama sh!it storm).

 

So Brandon Beane going on the offensive with local media and then going on a tour to yuck it up with out-of-town media about it while patting himself on the back about how great a job he's done with the WR corps is good drama to build on.   Not a lot of GM's put their neck out like that.   

 

And then they open up with the Ravens,  who literally exposed the Bills WR corps last fall and sent Beane scrambling to trade for Amari Cooper a month ahead of the deadline.   The Ravens then later held Allen to a pathetic 127 yards passing in a home playoff game where they physically outplayed the Bills but lost because of a comedy of errors on their part..........I mean, the WR drama could come to a head right away.  

 

The potential entertainment value beginning this season story with Hard Knocks is enormous.   By the end of that 1st game Beane could look like a genius or already be getting panned nationally if they struggle to throw the ball against Baltimore for a 3rd straight time.

 

Everything about this season is setting up to be incredibly entertaining.   Love them getting Hard Knocks this year,  they have a seasoned leadership group and coaching staff and areready for it, IMO.   And so glad they didn't know they were going to be on it until Beane added some spice to it with his "I signed Joshua Palmer" swagger.😂

 

This is going to be great.

Good post. More importantly, we now have ~24 years of evidence, and being on Hard Knocks appears to correlate with a 99 percent plus rate of stasis/mediocrity/decline. The Bills agreeing to this is flabbergasting to me.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, dcinmuncie said:

Maybe I’m in the minority but I love being ‘under the radar’

 

I LOVED national pundits counting us out last offseason 

I HATED being hyped at the beginning of the 2022 season and I HATE the hype and attention we are getting now 

 

I feel it’s bad ju ju and I hope I’m dead wrong 

I've never really cared.  Last year's Bills are kind of where the Lions are this year with both coordinators leaving.  They might take a step back but they'll still be looked at as Super Bowl contenders.  I always view it through the Vegas lens because that's where the true national public perception lies.  We were at over/under 10.5 wins last year and 11.5 this year.  Not much of a difference.  When we have Allen in his prime at QB the spotlight and pressure will always be on us.  It beats the "could sneak into a wildcard game" days though.

Edited 13 hours ago by Doc Brown

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

The Bills have been a top 2-3 team for the last 6 or so years….why would you think they would be “under the radar”?

 

They haven't been a top 2 team since 1993 but yeah they've won the division 5 years in a row and should have also won that 6 beginning in 2019 but just plain choked against Brady in NE back when Belichick still owned McD(0-6 vs BB at that point).

 

I didn't say it or even quote it though so you'd have to ask @dcinmuncie exactly what they meant by "under the radar".    The Jets were the betting favorite to win the AFC East last year but I never bought into that so they haven't been under the radar to me since their surprisingly dominant 2020.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post. More importantly, we now have ~24 years of evidence, and being on Hard Knocks appears to correlate with a 99 percent plus rate of stasis/mediocrity/decline. The Bills agreeing to this is flabbergasting to me.

 

 

I think they just finally ran out of excuses and the NFL forced it on them.   They've dodged the first 30 or so of these reality shows.   The training camp ones, the in-season, off-season and the Netflix QB and WR docs.   Maybe surprisingly exempting them from an international game this year was a concession?   But either way I think they would likely have avoided it if the league gave them a choice.   

 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't think it would be something that would be covered... except for that WGR interview. Because of that, it's definitely something that will be brought up when they're highlighting Beane and talking to him.

 

Actually, now that I think about it, myself and a couple others thought at the time that it felt like a planned thing by Beane as a publicity stunt. Highlighting it on the Draft Embedded made me think that further. Now I'm starting to wonder if Beane didn't know this was coming down the pipeline and did it in part bc he thought it might make good TV for Hard Knocks.

 

I put the likelihood that the WGR clip is shown and they discuss the discourse over WR at like 95%

 

 

I don't think Beane voluntarily put a bullseye on himself.  

 

The WGR thing was pretty much a steam of consciousness thing where he was kind of all over the place torn between talking sh!t about how smart he is(Josh Allen 2018 draft) and making excuses why he can't pay a WR and then dropping the "I signed Joshua Palmer" flex at the end.  

 

But yeah,  the questions about the WR position will be addressed in Hard Knocks.   

 

It would be one thing if it were questions about the safety position that Beane was yelling at local media about...........but putting some extra focus on WR also gives HBO an excuse to keep more focus on QB1.   

[Sierra Foothills]

On 5/21/2025 at 1:14 PM, turbo044 said:

It's irrelevant though, as playoffs teams from the previous year weren't eligible, or something like that.  So, the pool of teams that these stats come from were generally bottom feeders to mediocre teams.

 

I appreciate @Gugny's attempt to bring some statistical context to it but the records of the teams after appearing on Hard Knocks are irrelevant because the context is what the expectations for that team were.

 

The quick and dirty (and arguably best) way to measure the impact of appearing on the show would be to know what the Vegas over/under for wins was for that team compared to their final record.

 

Also btw, in 14 pages and counting, no one has come remotely close to providing conclusive data that appearing on the show has a generally adverse effect on the subject teams' season.

 

On 5/21/2025 at 4:42 PM, MikePJ76 said:

There is zero upside to being on the show.  It will put a target on the bills back and someone will say or do something that will end up being talked about nationally and become an issue.  It always does.

 

Zero upside? I suppose anything short of a Super Bowl victory will be enough for people agreeing with you to say "I told you so."

 

However Vegas has the Bills wins over/under at 11.5 for the upcoming season.

 

To me if they exceed that win total, there was no adverse effects from appearing on the show.

 

On 5/21/2025 at 5:31 PM, Doc Brown said:

If you go by the over/under preseason win total the teams that did Hard Knocks are 9-10-1 since its inception.  No real impact.

 

Thank you very much. I'm glad someone else sees it the same way.

 

[Billy Claude]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post. More importantly, we now have ~24 years of evidence, and being on Hard Knocks appears to correlate with a 99 percent plus rate of stasis/mediocrity/decline. The Bills agreeing to this is flabbergasting to me.

 

Almost all teams that are on Hard Knocks was forced to do so. The only clear exception was 2020 when the Rams and Chargers were trying increase their profile due to the move to LA. They were the only teams since 2011 that were on Hard Knocks that were not on the list of teams that could be forced to do so.

 

In previous years, the Bills were not on Hard Knocks because either (1) nobody cared about the Bills (pre-2018) or (2) the Bills could not be forced since they had been in the playoffs either of the previous two seasons.

 

This season the NFL lifted the restriction regarding playoff teams so that 20 teams could be forced to be on the training camp Hard Knocks. This was partly because the expansion of the playoffs meant only three teams in 2024 (Bears, Broncos, Saints) and four in 2023 (Jets, Bears, Saints, Commanders) could be forced.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/nfl-teams-eligible-for-2025-hard-knocks-new-criteria

 

It looks like the teams were able to convince Goodell to eliminate the off-season Hard Knocks after the embarassment to the Giants'.

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Billy Claude