Rank Allen’s receiving options

[LEBills]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Hard to call someone mid when they LED Tennessee in yards and catches in 2020

 

Every single offense is different I don't care if he had 500 yards or 1200 yards.. he was on an SEC team and was the leading receiver

 

There's literally 900 Plus FBS receivers.. he had the 40th best stats over his 4 years in college

 

That's in the 95th percentile.. far from mid if I'm just being honest

Yea I can’t speak to the cumulative stats, I don’t focus on them much because as you have stated offenses are usually very different in college.
 

His efficiency stats just were not very good in college.  A sub 2.0 yprr for his college career. And he was a later breakout player not leading his team in receiving until his age 21 season. Both buckets basically put you in a large cohort of players that have not succeeded in the NFL outside of DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas Jr and Terry McLaurin. Which Palmer is not exactly the physical specimens they are.

 

From an NFL efficiency standpoint and just as someone who has watched a lot of Palmer after having him on my fantasy team it seems every year when my main guys get hurt, I think others guys will have a better time contributing. I hope I’m wrong.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I think the offense will be best if Palmer and Kincaid are the top two targets. Shakir is a solid WR but the offense is too plodding when he is the focal point. Really want to see more intermediate to deep throws by Allen and use the entire field.

Next will probably be Moore. He should be more of a threat than Samuel. Samuel will be the 5th WR gadget guy. 

That leaves Coleman as the 4th WR. He may be the Hollins role and be out there on more running plays. Never liked the pick. Just don't believe he can get open against NFL corners.

I really like Knox but there just is not enough plays for him to get the ball often.  I thought he could be an elite TE but he never developed into a star. If Kimcaod is playing well Knox probably gets 15-20 receptions but might have 4 TDs. 

 

 

[BeastMaster]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Why so low on Palmer?  Maybe you’ve explained previously, but I missed it.  The guy knows how to get open.  I don’t why how anyone could out Keon over him (and I like Keon more than most).  Palmer is a MUCH better route while also being faster.  Similar hands

You either don't like Keon, or you overrate Palmer.

 

People can tell me that Palmer gets open all they want, but the production just isn't there, and him being pushed out of the starting lineup also speaks to him not being as good as you and others here claim.

 

I think Palmer is a bust signing by Beane and that his production will not justify the contract we gave him.

 

Keon has a much better chance of actually being more productive in this offense

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

His yards after catch top 5 NFL TEs..  average depth of target top 10... Top 20 ypc being banged up .. pff ranked him 6th overall TE

 

We have a very complicated offense that does not focus on one guy..  he had multiple stats in the top 10 TE being a second year guy

 

That's the problem with the NFL you take a guy first round that your team historically doesn't take in 60 years.. a tight end.. and people expect Tony Gonzalez out the gate 

 

He's literally been top 10 and he's only been in the league 2 years

Him being top 10 in some stats doesn’t prove that he and his QB are in sync…. He’s a talented TE.  I’m not disputing that…...

 

Watching the games last season, you thought Josh and Kincaid were on the same page?  I most certainly did not

[Pete]

Shakir

Palmer

Moore 

Samuels

Knox

Dalton

Coleman

 

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So you think gelling is going to turn Palmer into what level of producer though?

 

I mean, I wouldn't be "shocked" if he averaged 50 yards receiving per game over 17 games but I think that's probably the higher end.   What's "most likely" is what I always say with these free agent signings..... that they finish with a season not far from their career norms.   Look at Mack Hollins.   Despite all the PT he got receiving the most snaps of any Bills WR......he put up just 378 yards.   His career range is mostly 200's with a high in the 600 range so falling in a bit south of 400 tracked.    

 

 

I think that’s higher end as well….for our offense.  A run first, spread the ball around to keep the defense off balance type offense. 
 

regarding Mack’s PT….he was in there to block more than he was to catch passes….no?  

[NewEra]

9 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

You either don't like Keon, or you overrate Palmer.

 

People can tell me that Palmer gets open all they want, but the production just isn't there, and him being pushed out of the starting lineup also speaks to him not being as good as you and others here claim.

 

I think Palmer is a bust signing by Beane and that his production will not justify the contract we gave him.

 

Keon has a much better chance of actually being more productive in this offense

I like Keon and I think Palmer is a good (far from great) outside WR.  A better outside target than Keon at the moment due to his ability to separate….whereas Keon doesn’t have much ability to get separation.  
 

I see Keon as a big Shakir with jump ball ability. Best in the slot but will play outside due to necessity.  Get him the ball and let him run past/through the defenders.

 

its pretty obvious to me based on what you wrote, that you just dislike Palmer as a player.  So maybe you’re the one that is underrating Palmer.  I like Keon plenty….i just think he has to improve his route running to play outside full time. 

Edited 3 hours ago by NewEra

[BearNorth]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I think that’s higher end as well….for our offense.  A run first, spread the ball around to keep the defense off balance type offense. 
 

regarding Mack’s PT….he was in there to block more than he was to catch passes….no?  

Mack caught 31 balls 378 yards 12.2 ypc, so decent production for a 4th wr option. Comparable ypc to our group of TE's and RB's.

Led the team in TD catches, so Josh had confidence in him in the RZ.

[billsfan89]

10 hours ago, DJB said:

In other words they suck 

 

No not at all. Shakir is a top slot WR in the league, Kincaid/Knox are a top 10 TE combo in the league, All 3 RB's catch the ball well out of the backfield ensuring that the Bills always have a pass catcher out the backfield (Ty is one of the best third down backs in the league), Palmer and Samuel are quality veteran complementary WR's, Keon is coming off a solid but uneven rookie season and looks to grow more into a true consistent "WR2", and they brought in Moore as some additional veteran depth at WR who could be a nice complementary piece. 

 

The talent at WR/TE/RB is probably above league "average" but how it blends together to complement Josh and a beast of an offensive line is what makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts.  

[chris heff]

18 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Im still confused why people think Moore is a better receiving option than Palmer.  The Bills have pretty clearly shown they think Palmer is much more of a priority.  Maybe it turns out that Moore > Palmer but going into the season the Bills clearly prefer Palmer.  

I think it’s the speed and the fact that Moore has played for bad teams with bad QBs. Palmer was playing with Justin Herbert. Moore can do something the Bills have been missing, which is consistently getting to the third level. His ability to do that will open up the field. Which means everyone gets to eat more. This offense could be really dangerous.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I think that’s higher end as well….for our offense.  A run first, spread the ball around to keep the defense off balance type offense. 
 

regarding Mack’s PT….he was in there to block more than he was to catch passes….no?  

 

 

Yeah,  if the Bills reach the playoffs again this season this will basically be year 3 of Joe Brady's "everybody eats" in the playoffs.

 

The formula has worked at regular season intensity.    It's even been very good at home against vastly inferior competition in the wild card rounds.

 

But when the competition is legit and the game is on the line will Josh Palmer be getting open against that Chiefs or Ravens CB when they are playing like their life depends on it?  

 

I suspect not.   That's when the difference makers do their thing.  

 

When push literally comes to shove the Bills top WR's have got shoved on their a$$ and Palmer totally fits the mold physically.

 

Palmer is not exceptionally fast.   He's not exceptionally physical.  He's played just one playoff game but was rendered totally ineffective.  He caught 2 balls on 6 targets for 30 yards despite playing basically every snap.

 

That's why the Bills should have been all over DK Metcalf.    He is playoff tested and proven.   Big, physical, fast.   Traits that still play when the opponent is giving 100% effort and intensity.

 

As for Mack.......he played the most snaps of any Bills WR with 66%.   So he was out there in all situations.   Also had their highest passer rating when targeted at 118.   

 

Palmer is getting the Sharty-Sherfield effect........a lot more credit for his outlook than his track record warrants.

[RyanC883]

 Like (hating to do this, but whatever) if Madden scoring they would all be about the same overall score, but the skills scores would vary.  This could make the entire unit hard to defend, but no one receiver is really scaring a DC.  The entire unit may scare DCs depending on how the DC can deploy it's D against the individual WRs and their specific skills.  

[YattaOkasan]

45 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I think it’s the speed and the fact that Moore has played for bad teams with bad QBs. Palmer was playing with Justin Herbert. Moore can do something the Bills have been missing, which is consistently getting to the third level. His ability to do that will open up the field. Which means everyone gets to eat more. This offense could be really dangerous.

I think those are all really great points but the ranking seems more like cause its the shiny new object and the context of the signing after the beane radio dust up thats.  Its VERY clear the Bills have palmer ranked higher (like nothing they have done supports them thinking Moore is a better player).  They could be wrong but Im surprised how many people are just assuming Beane didnt prioritize WR correctly (Moore should have been a Wave 1 WR if he is truely WR3 and ahead of Palmer). 

 

All that said I am very excited for how he rounds out the room.  I just expect less statistical output from him mostly cause of opportunity with other players being ahead of him based on investment.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Mack caught 31 balls 378 yards 12.2 ypc, so decent production for a 4th wr option. Comparable ypc to our group of TE's and RB's.

Led the team in TD catches, so Josh had confidence in him in the RZ.

Yes-  he had 31 catches while leading the WR unit in snaps-  he was in there to block on more snaps than he was to catch passes.

[chris heff]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah,  if the Bills reach the playoffs again this season this will basically be year 3 of Joe Brady's "everybody eats" in the playoffs.

 

The formula has worked at regular season intensity.    It's even been very good at home against vastly inferior competition in the wild card rounds.

 

But when the competition is legit and the game is on the line will Josh Palmer be getting open against that Chiefs or Ravens CB when they are playing like their life depends on it?  

 

I suspect not.   That's when the difference makers do their thing.  

 

When push literally comes to shove the Bills top WR's have got shoved on their a$$ and Palmer totally fits the mold physically.

 

Palmer is not exceptionally fast.   He's not exceptionally physical.  He's played just one playoff game but was rendered totally ineffective.  He caught 2 balls on 6 targets for 30 yards despite playing basically every snap.

 

That's why the Bills should have been all over DK Metcalf.    He is playoff tested and proven.   Big, physical, fast.   Traits that still play when the opponent is giving 100% effort and intensity.

 

As for Mack.......he played the most snaps of any Bills WR with 66%.   So he was out there in all situations.   Also had their highest passer rating when targeted at 118.   

 

Palmer is getting the Sharty-Sherfield effect........a lot more credit for his outlook than his track record warrants.

Defense lost those games.

[Aesop]

Alot of hate coming in for Palmer. Dude is 25, turning 26 in September. Alot of upside in the signing. None of us are NFL coaches, so its hard to say how he will fit into the Bills system compared to the Chargers. I for one am optimistic he can produce in this offense. Like many have said, the everybody eats mentality may skew stats, but all I care about is having a wide receiver room that makes plays when their number is called and helps the Bills win games.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, chris heff said:

Defense lost those games.

 

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Aesop said:

Alot of hate coming in for Palmer. Dude is 25, turning 26 in September. Alot of upside in the signing. None of us are NFL coaches, so its hard to say how he will fit into the Bills system compared to the Chargers. I for one am optimistic he can produce in this offense. Like many have said, the everybody eats mentality may skew stats, but all I care about is having a wide receiver room that makes plays when their number is called and helps the Bills win games.

One thing I am interested in is how much (as a %) man coverage the Chargers faced versus how much zone coverage.  I suspect Ladd and Keenan allen types did/do better against zone.  For the longest time the Chargers run game was pretty meh even with Ekler so I assume they faced a lot of zone.  On the flip we have gotten a lot of man coverage lately because the run game is a problem if you play zone.  This may explain why we could see an increase in productivity (though output will likely not improve because of opportunity).  

[billsfan89]

12 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

You either don't like Keon, or you overrate Palmer.

 

People can tell me that Palmer gets open all they want, but the production just isn't there, and him being pushed out of the starting lineup also speaks to him not being as good as you and others here claim.

 

I think Palmer is a bust signing by Beane and that his production will not justify the contract we gave him.

 

Keon has a much better chance of actually being more productive in this offense

 

Fair concerns about Palmer but I do think that he will be a contributor. I think he's gonna slot in and make a contribution of 500-700 yards 4-6 TD's and 50ish receptions on Ok to good target efficiency. What would have made me more excited about Palmer is that he's not a WR that can claim to be a good player trapped with a bad QB. But by all accounts Palmer is the type of outside WR the team needed so there's a lot of different ways you can look at him 

[LEBills]

5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

One thing I am interested in is how much (as a %) man coverage the Chargers faced versus how much zone coverage.  I suspect Ladd and Keenan allen types did/do better against zone.  For the longest time the Chargers run game was pretty meh even with Ekler so I assume they faced a lot of zone.  On the flip we have gotten a lot of man coverage lately because the run game is a problem if you play zone.  This may explain why we could see an increase in productivity (though output will likely not improve because of opportunity).  

This is a fantasy football website but if you scroll down to the final row you will see his work vs man and vs zone and you can adjust the year at the top. 
 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-palmer/