Dalton Kincaid Still Skinny

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Don't forget propping up other teams young players.  Last year it was all about how we could have had breece hall over no-hands cook.  Now the same people want Cook extended.

Good point

[BADOLBILZ]

33 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:

Kid caught over 70 passes his rookie year…..caught 40 his 2nd year while dealing with injuries. Fans are questioning if he’s a bust which is crazy to me……if he has a mediocre 3rd year then I’ll jump on the bandwagon, but write him off now makes no sense to me!

 

 

They are questioning if he's a bust because he had a HORRIFIC playoffs.   He dropped uncontested passes and contested passes.   Even the one nice play he was credited with against Denver was a MMMMMMDRRRop!   

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/dalton-kincaid-s-35-yard-diving-grab-advances-bills-into-broncos-territory-bills-vs-broncos

 

When you are horrible in big games like that people are going to remember.   If he plays well in the playoffs nobody is referencing his regular season stats.   They are singing his praises like Gabe Davis after 13 seconds.

[Pete]

21 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Above you said mediocre TEs do well against the Bills.  A subjective opinion.  But when it comes to Kincaid and someone offers a subjective opinion you demand data.  Can you explain why?

Because I watch every Bills game, and most often rewatch it.  A casual observer could tell you that the Bills gave up a lot of 3rd and long conversions. Have you not witnessed this with your Bills colored glasses?

[Beck Water]

25 minutes ago, Pete said:

Because I watch every Bills game, and most often rewatch it.  A casual observer could tell you that the Bills gave up a lot of 3rd and long conversions. Have you not witnessed this with your Bills colored glasses?

 

Hmmm.  Wondering if there's a free source for these data?  Also how you define "3rd and long"?

What does a casual observer tell you about the Chiefs 3rd down results?

 

16 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Never. 

 

I respect you, Richard, but it doesn't sound like my cup of lemon ginger kombucha.

 

I want to respect you, but I'm struggling to respect someone who puts lemon ginger kombucha in their cup.

Do you drink it after you put it there?

Edited Friday at 10:47 PM by Beck Water

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hmmm.  Wondering if there's a free source for these data?  Also how you define "3rd and long"?

What does a casual observer tell you about the Chiefs 3rd down results?

 

 

I want to respect you, but I'm struggling to respect someone who puts lemon ginger kombucha in their cup.

Do you drink it after you put it there?

Did we watch the same 2024 Bills? Why are you challenging the truth?
 

AI Overview

+1

The Bills' defense struggled on third downs, particularly on third-and-long situations, in the 2024 season, ranking 30th in the NFL for third-down stops. They allowed first downs at a concerning rate of 43.8% on third down, according to Syracuse.com. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown: 

Third-Down Struggles:

The Bills allowed 44% of their opponents' third-down attempts to convert, which was the second-worst in the league. 

Third-Down Stop Percentage:

The Bills' 44% third-down stop percentage was significantly below the NFL average, highlighting their issues with getting off the field on third downs. 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 12:41 AM by Pete

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

Because I watch every Bills game, and most often rewatch it.  A casual observer could tell you that the Bills gave up a lot of 3rd and long conversions. Have you not witnessed this with your Bills colored glasses?

Third and long to whom?  Yes?  WRs?  Who?  The fact remains you demand objective data from anyone who challenges your arguments but then cast your subjective opinions when you feel fit.  Just seems hypocritical.  
 

We’ll all know soon enough how the offense looks.  Given the success the offense had last year I think we’ll be just fine.  And if that means I have rose colored glasses on fine by me.

8 minutes ago, Pete said:

Did we watch the same 2024 Bills? Why are you challenging the truth?
 

AI Overview

+1

The Bills' defense struggled on third downs, particularly on third-and-long situations, in the 2024 season, ranking 30th in the NFL for third-down stops. They allowed first downs at a concerning rate of 43.8% on third down, according to Syracuse.com. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown: 

Third-Down Struggles:

The Bills allowed 44% of their opponents' third-down attempts to convert, which was the second-worst in the league. 

Third-Down Stop Percentage:

The Bills' 44% third-down stop percentage was significantly below the NFL average, highlighting their issues with getting off the field on third downs. 

 

 

All the more reason to go heavy on defense in the draft.

[Billsfed1]

On 5/12/2025 at 5:30 AM, DJB said:

My wife told me the same thing 😭

Nicely done lol

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

Did we watch the same 2024 Bills? Why are you challenging the truth?
 

AI Overview

+1

The Bills' defense struggled on third downs, particularly on third-and-long situations, in the 2024 season, ranking 30th in the NFL for third-down stops. They allowed first downs at a concerning rate of 43.8% on third down, according to Syracuse.com. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown: 

Third-Down Struggles:

The Bills allowed 44% of their opponents' third-down attempts to convert, which was the second-worst in the league. 

Third-Down Stop Percentage:

The Bills' 44% third-down stop percentage was significantly below the NFL average, highlighting their issues with getting off the field on third downs. 

 

 

 

I'm not challenging the truth.  

I'm asking for the data which establish what IS the truth

If it's truth, you should have no problem providing the source of the data which establish that.

 

You started out talking about 3rd and long.

Now you're talking about 3rd down conversions in general

 

Where are the data about 3rd and long?

How do you define 3rd and long (since you reference your eyes watching the games), and how do the data about 3rd and long define it?

Last, since you mentioned what a "casual observer" would be able to tell, I asked what a casual observer tells you about the Chiefs 3rd down defense results?

 

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

22 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Never. 

 

I respect you, Richard, but it doesn't sound like my cup of lemon ginger kombucha.

 

I believe I've just been insulted, sir. 

[HappyDays]

This is a good selection of plays and Erik's framing of the problem is exactly right - it's miscues between Allen and Kincaid leading to a lot of these.

 

Something I notice is that Kincaid's movements are a lot of times unpredictable, the speed and direction of his routes is a little all over the place. Which makes it impossible for Allen to deliver accurate passes. I think Kincaid lacks confidence in his own ability to read the defense, and that lack of confidence is showing up in his sporadic route running.

 

On a couple of these plays he is running past an open zone window into coverage, or inexplicably slowing down when he should instead continue running into open space. Allen needs to be able to know where Kincaid is headed and trust that Kincaid is reading the spacing properly, and in these clips that is clearly not happening.

 

Also in these clips Kincaid fails to make a single difficult catch. If you're going to be a primarily pass catching TE in the NFL you need to be able to occasionally rip a ball away from a LB or scoop a low pass. It can't always be perfect.

 

The margin for error with him was overall just way too low because of his route running and catch ability. No wonder we kept his ADOT low and made Knox the primary target on deeper throws. I know the team's messaging has been that he needs to get his strength up. I continue to believe that his biggest area of improvement will actually come in the film room. Separation only counts if you end up in the right spot to create the best possible throwing window. Separating but then continuing to run into coverage might make your separation metrics look better, but it doesn't make an effective route.

[HappyDays]

Honestly the more I see of Kincaid last year the worse I feel about his ability to put it all together. Feels like he just has so much to work on. Strength through contact, route running precision, route spacing, difficult catches... The only thing he really has going for him right now is his natural movement skills. All of the other nuances that come with NFL pass catching just aren't there right now.

[TheFunPolice]

I remember draft night all the pundits acted like we just drafted the second coming of Travis Kelce. 

 

One guy (can't remember who) actually said "anyone who lets the Bills get Kincaid to pair with Allen deserves what they get!" (or words to that effect).

 

Now, I watch basically zero college football and admittedly know little about it. I'll be watching NC this year just for the show. But all of a sudden everyone is gushing about this TE that I just heard of for the first time 5 minutes before and I admit... I was pumped! We got a superstar level TE possibly. 

 

That probably has colored my view of Kincaid's career. He has not even been good, let alone scary. 

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Honestly the more I see of Kincaid last year the worse I feel about his ability to put it all together. Feels like he just has so much to work on. Strength through contact, route running precision, route spacing, difficult catches... The only thing he really has going for him right now is his natural movement skills. All of the other nuances that come with NFL pass catching just aren't there right now.

This is my simplistic opinion looking at all of this.  Josh thinks he's throwing to Knox.  Kincaid isn't as strong as Knox.  How do you fix that?

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

This is my simplistic opinion looking at all of this.  Josh thinks he's throwing to Knox.  Kincaid isn't as strong as Knox.  How do you fix that?

 

I don't expect him to transform his body and become Gronk. But that's also not what we drafted him to be. We drafted him to be like Kelce, a cerebral player with movement skills who acts as an extension of his QB and can quickly diagnose how to make himself an available target. That's what his scouting report projected him to be. I worry that that skill is something you either naturally have or you don't, and that he falls firmly in the "don't" category, but I'm trying to stay hopeful that he can develop it with another full offseason studying the same system.

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This is a good selection of plays and Erik's framing of the problem is exactly right - it's miscues between Allen and Kincaid leading to a lot of these.

 

Something I notice is that Kincaid's movements are a lot of times unpredictable, the speed and direction of his routes is a little all over the place. Which makes it impossible for Allen to deliver accurate passes. I think Kincaid lacks confidence in his own ability to read the defense, and that lack of confidence is showing up in his sporadic route running.

 

On a couple of these plays he is running past an open zone window into coverage, or inexplicably slowing down when he should instead continue running into open space. Allen needs to be able to know where Kincaid is headed and trust that Kincaid is reading the spacing properly, and in these clips that is clearly not happening.

 

Also in these clips Kincaid fails to make a single difficult catch. If you're going to be a primarily pass catching TE in the NFL you need to be able to occasionally rip a ball away from a LB or scoop a low pass. It can't always be perfect.

 

The margin for error with him was overall just way too low because of his route running and catch ability. No wonder we kept his ADOT low and made Knox the primary target on deeper throws. I know the team's messaging has been that he needs to get his strength up. I continue to believe that his biggest area of improvement will actually come in the film room. Separation only counts if you end up in the right spot to create the best possible throwing window. Separating but then continuing to run into coverage might make your separation metrics look better, but it doesn't make an effective route.

Allen and kincaid also completed the third most deep attempts between a quarterback and TE last year

 

In a bad year according to some

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Allen and kincaid also completed the third most deep attempts between a quarterback and TE last year

 

In a bad year according to some

 

I mean that's a hyper-specific stat with a very low sample size across the NFL. Like what am I supposed to take away from that? It doesn't eliminate the year he had which was indeed bad. Below 60% catch rate, low ADOT, 34.5 YPG, 6 yards per target. All that with the NFL MVP throwing him the ball and no elite pass catchers taking targets away. There's no dressing up those numbers. It was bad.

 

The narrative du jour amongst Bills fans is "high uncatchable target rate." Okay... What does that mean? Why are the passes uncatchable? Why is Kincaid the only target Allen has had with that problem? I think there's a lot of blind hope masquerading as analysis.

[uticaclub]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Allen and kincaid also completed the third most deep attempts between a quarterback and TE last year

 

In a bad year according to some

TEs aren’t usually used for deep passes. We just had no other options

Edited 24 minutes ago by uticaclub

[Buffalo716]

Just now, uticaclub said:

TEs aren’t usually used for deep passes. We just had no other options

The point is people are saying that he's only used for checkdowns yet by advanced metrics he's going downfield more than the majority of tight ends 

 

People think he's going to be running 30 yard seam routes all game 

 

But that's not what an NFL tight end does

[3rdand12]

On 5/17/2025 at 12:57 AM, Richard Noggin said:

 

I believe I've just been insulted, sir. 

Will it be pistols at ten paces / Or comedic insults with a keyboard ?

[Buffalo716]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean that's a hyper-specific stat with a very low sample size across the NFL. Like what am I supposed to take away from that? It doesn't eliminate the year he had which was indeed bad. Below 60% catch rate, low ADOT, 34.5 YPG, 6 yards per target. All that with the NFL MVP throwing him the ball and no elite pass catchers taking targets away. There's no dressing up those numbers. It was bad.

 

The narrative du jour amongst Bills fans is "high uncatchable target rate." Okay... What does that mean? Why are the passes uncatchable? Why is Kincaid the only target Allen has had with that problem? I think there's a lot of blind hope masquerading as analysis.

Or he's been double bracketed as a rookie which takes time to learn how to play through bracket coverage 

 

He's not an afterthought.. he has multiple eyes on him every snap 

 

7th overall averages depth of target... It's not low for tight ends... 3rd overall in yards after catch per Target... 6th in air yards share

 

PFF which still doesn't matter had him 6th overall for qualified TEs

 

All while being banged up the majority of the year

 

He's not a check down target... Literally just answered your own question as to why he is keyed on.. there's not an elite pass catcher on the outside so they stuff up the middle 

 

With his skill set and his age still has a massive ceiling and room to grow

 

People think you take a tight end in the first round and you're getting Mike ditka out the bat... Most players need to acclimate 

 

hes gonna have a good year 

 

Edited 11 minutes ago by Buffalo716