I don't know why but I think this is the year, weird strong feeling going on.

[90sBills]

18 hours ago, Redblood said:

I didn't even know she was in a movie. But lexi showed me and i was shocked. So i did my own research praying it was a hoax and well………..im a little worried about how this may affect him. Psychology is my area and his body language and eye movements revealed a person who was highly stressed. 
 

nfl players are already making tongue in cheek posts. He has supported her but the saddest thing was seeing him having to watch it at the premiere and hailee sat with her co star…..it really bothers me because i can tell it bothers him and i know the possible team implications…..made me wonder if that is why Beane has been so on edge 

You’re a psychology ‘expert’ and people acting in a movie bothers you? Sounds like you need to see a psychologist. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Low Positive said:

They could be worse. We got a number of lucky bounces and other bits of good fortune to win some close ones. Remember when Zuerlein missed a 32 and 43 yard FG and the BIlls beat the Jets 23-20? And then it took a 61-yard FG to beat the Fins two week later. Both of those games could have gone the other way. Most NFL games come down to a play or two. This past year we made those plays more often than not, at least until the AFCCG. 

 

Sadly, you're right.  Last season we were +24 in turnover differential.  But of the various stats that contribute to winning seasons, various football observers have concluded that TO margin is perhaps the most variable from year to year.  

 

To give an example, one analyst wrote:  "We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year." 

 

In short, we can't count on getting wins by winning the TO battle again this year. 

 

footballfanspot.com/2021/08/12/which-stats-are-most-predictable-and-predictive/

 

harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, 90sBills said:

You’re a psychology ‘expert’ and people acting in a movie bothers you? Sounds like you need to see a psychologist. 

I think the AI is still learning.  Answers are getting tediously longer. 🤔

Edited yesterday at 09:52 PM by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Redblood]

26 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

You’re a psychology ‘expert’ and people acting in a movie bothers you? Sounds like you need to see a psychologist. 

No such thing as an expert in my area. And i actually do see one lol. Im actually married to one. 
 

Glad im the only one concerned and pray its unwarranted 

[Redblood]

Our division will not be good, but will be better than last yr. Pats in particular 

[Augie]

40 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

You’re a psychology ‘expert’ and people acting in a movie bothers you? Sounds like you need to see a psychologist. 

 

If it were a high school production of Oklahoma or something you might get some drama. I don’t think we have to worry here. 

[Dukestreetking]

4 hours ago, Redblood said:

i doubt she has any interest in mbj- heck shes as tall as he is. My wife laughed out loud when i mentioned it stating no woman would abandon Josh allen for a mbj. And the scene itself was pretty tame- fully clothed, intimacy coordinator brought in, barriers utilized, no touchey feely and she had a body double on set (maybe she was used for scene where she was photographed from behind etc)…..i get it. Thats not the issue imo. To me it reveals that she possibly put a ***** in his armour that can be exploited on the field. Can you imagine in those close chippy games the things they will be throwing out about his girl. I just feel that Josh deserves someone who is 100 percent loyal in every way. 
 

Brother, I appreciate the general sentiment of your posts.

 

But I seriously doubt 17 has the psyche to go Full Ari Gold (as when Mrs Ari went back to acting). 

[eball]

It’s gas.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

I think we need a Cheese-o-Meter to track this feeling until opening day.  I'll be checking in regularly. 

Its not going to go away.

[JerseyBills]

Most complete , well rounded roster in Allen era

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Sadly, you're right.  Last season we were +24 in turnover differential.  But of the various stats that contribute to winning seasons, various football observers have concluded that TO margin is perhaps the most variable from year to year.  

 

To give an example, one analyst wrote:  "We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year." 

 

In short, we can't count on getting wins by winning the TO battle again this year. 

 

footballfanspot.com/2021/08/12/which-stats-are-most-predictable-and-predictive/

 

harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

 

I think turnover differential does have some randomness to it—like weird bounces, DB's dropping or not dropping possible easy picks and tipped passes—but the reason the Bills were so good in that category is because, while there was certainly some luck involved, Josh Allen really did cut down on his turnovers.

 

In 2022 and 2023, as dynamic as he was, Josh had some turnover-prone games. But in 2024, the Bills made things easier for him, and he forced the ball less.

As for the defense, while it definitely had its flaws, it was also very opportunistic. And while every defense aims to create turnovers, I think the Bills defense sometimes played with an awareness that they had to generate a few takeaways—especially since they were getting gashed at times by better offenses.

Also, McDermott’s defense tends to turn average or below-average quarterbacks into turnover-prone players, so that factors in too.

 

Overall, while I do expect some regression in turnover differential, if I were a betting man, I’d still say the Bills finish in the top 10 in that margin.

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think turnover differential does have some randomness to it—like weird bounces, DB's dropping or not dropping possible easy picks and tipped passes—but the reason the Bills were so good in that category is because, while there was certainly some luck involved, Josh Allen really did cut down on his turnovers.

 

In 2022 and 2023, as dynamic as he was, Josh had some turnover-prone games. But in 2024, the Bills made things easier for him, and he forced the ball less.

As for the defense, while it definitely had its flaws, it was also very opportunistic. And while every defense aims to create turnovers, I think the Bills defense sometimes played with an awareness that they had to generate a few takeaways—especially since they were getting gashed at times by better offenses.

Also, McDermott’s defense tends to turn average or below-average quarterbacks into turnover-prone players, so that factors in too.

 

Overall, while I do expect some regression in turnover differential, if I were a betting man, I’d still say the Bills finish in the top 10 in that margin.

Usually even on defense something like turnovers year to year is usually pretty random 

 

I say usually because there's some coaches who break the norm.. with Bill belichick defenses it's not luck that he's always in the top 10 creating turnovers it's a scheme 

 

Sean McDermott also has a scheme that is elite at creating turnovers in his coaching career 

 

16 seasons coaching as a defensive coordinator or head coach.. 14 seasons in the top 10.. eight seasons in the top five creating turnovers 

 

His system is elite in that regard

[L Ron Burgundy]

1 hour ago, Redblood said:

Our division will not be good, but will be better than last yr. Pats in particular 

Eh, maybe.   Fins look worse.

43 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Most complete , well rounded roster in Allen era

Maybe.  We still decent if we remove Josh and replace with an average starter?  Probably not.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Eh, maybe.   Fins look worse.

Maybe.  We still decent if we remove Josh and replace with an average starter?  Probably not.

I mean, Tyrone got us to 9-7 and overall this is a much better team for sure..

Run the ball heavy,  elite OL, elite RB

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think turnover differential does have some randomness to it—like weird bounces, DB's dropping or not dropping possible easy picks and tipped passes—but the reason the Bills were so good in that category is because, while there was certainly some luck involved, Josh Allen really did cut down on his turnovers.

 

In 2022 and 2023, as dynamic as he was, Josh had some turnover-prone games. But in 2024, the Bills made things easier for him, and he forced the ball less.

As for the defense, while it definitely had its flaws, it was also very opportunistic. And while every defense aims to create turnovers, I think the Bills defense sometimes played with an awareness that they had to generate a few takeaways—especially since they were getting gashed at times by better offenses.

Also, McDermott’s defense tends to turn average or below-average quarterbacks into turnover-prone players, so that factors in too.

 

Overall, while I do expect some regression in turnover differential, if I were a betting man, I’d still say the Bills finish in the top 10 in that margin.

 

I hope you're right.  

 

I remember when Jairus Byrd had 9 picks in his rookie year.  Some Bills fans thought he was an emerging superstar with a remarkable nose for the ball.  I thought he was lucky - often in the wrong place but coming up with a pick anyway because of a funky deflection.  Byrd only averaged 2 picks per year for the rest of his career.  Sometimes TOs are like that.  

 

Recent history...  The Bills led the league in TO differential last year.  The 2023 leader, the Ravens, finished in the top five again in 2024.  The 49ers led the league in 2022 but only finished +0 the following year.  I hope we follow Baltimore's example, not San Francisco's.  

[Dablitzkrieg]

I hope so.  Gotta stop the Chiefs from going to their 4th straight SB

[90sBills]

4 hours ago, Redblood said:

No such thing as an expert in my area. And i actually do see one lol. Im actually married to one. 
 

Glad im the only one concerned and pray its unwarranted 

Yeah you’re definitely the only one thinking about this for sure. At least in the specific context you’re talking about here. 

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, Redblood said:

No such thing as an expert in my area. And i actually do see one lol. Im actually married to one. 
 

Glad im the only one concerned and pray its unwarranted 

 

You're still expressing your "concern" about a football player being engaged to an actress? Unreal. Like, literally sounds robotic and unreal. 

[L Ron Burgundy]

11 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I mean, Tyrone got us to 9-7 and overall this is a much better team for sure..

Run the ball heavy,  elite OL, elite RB

If some rooks are immediately good I agree.  If they're just depth probably not true.

[Redblood]

Im curious to see if  Ray Davis” role increases this yr. With Cook being disgruntled with his contract