Is there an NFL team with a weaker WR group than the Bills?

[Scott7975]

On 5/2/2025 at 5:11 PM, Motorin' said:

 

A lot of truth here. I'll add that having a mid-season funk nearly every year while dropping games against inferior teams, causing the Bills to miss out on the 1 seed is something an elite QB like Josh Allen shouldn't be doing either. 

 

And losing out on the bye and having to play Wild Card weekend every year is another reason they haven't reached a Super Bowl... Regularly capturing the #1 seed needs to be the main focus of the regular season, which means learning to win the stupid mid-season games against teams like Jacksonville, no matter what and no excuses. 

 

I agree with what you are saying but the Chiefs lost one game last season, so last year it wasn't gonna happen. Other years yeah.

 

On the topic of WR... I believe we will still have a top offense but I'd feel much better about it if we had a proven field stretcher on the outside. I have no idea how our new guys are going to work out as I really know nothing about them, but they seem to be just jags like we had last year. We have some good guys and the everybody eats thing, but without having at least a solid field stretcher I think it makes us easier to defend and relies too much on perfect Josh.

[Bockeye]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

You aren’t a vertical threat until you actually do it in games.   If all you do is catch balls underneath then you are just another possession receiver.  
 

Having the ability to do something and actually doing it are two different things.  It’s why I’ve stated multiple times Brady needs to utilize Moore as a deep threat as we have enough underneath and possession type receivers.  Until that happens Moore is a redundant asset.  

I agree that Brady has to use him as a vertical threat.  Moore can definitely do it as he has done before and was arguably quite good at it.  It’s on Brady’s shoulders to utilize both him and Palmer as vertical threats as and when needed.  Jury is out on that as MVS obviously had the skills but didn’t fit into Bradys offense (and I really don’t have any complaints about Bradys offense). 

 

https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/11/23/elijah-moore-outside-wr-slot/

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

Josh lost his best WR before last season. It didn't seem to impede their progress.

 

But the passing game did suffer. For the first time since 2019 Allen was below 4,000 passing yards. Passing TDs also was the lowest since 2019. Passing success rate was below 50%, and again the lowest since 2019. It's inarguable that the weak WR talent made the passing offense significantly less productive.

 

The offense made up for it however with great tackle play, getting explosive plays from the run game, and an all-time elimination of negative plays in the pass game (literally all-time - Allen had the lowest sack/INT/fumble percentage in NFL history). They were able to mask the WR room by playing an intentionally safe ball control style of offense and by Allen delivering the best performance of his career. That doesn't mean the lack of WR talent wasn't a problem; the volume passing stats show clearly that it was.

 

And ball control worked great, until the final two games of the season. Against Baltimore our inability to do anything on offense for the entire second half almost cost us a game that we had well in hand. The narrative of that game swung on a dropped 2 point conversion. Against KC we were forced into multiple 4th down conversion scenarios as a direct result of our small ball philosophy, and predictably we couldn't convert all of them so we lost. The needle proved too narrow to thread. I worry this season will suffer the same ending.

 

But this regime has made its bed and they have to lay in it. Looking at the total resources spent on the offense vs on the defense, the 2025 Bills really should be led by the defense. We shouldn't need to put up 30+ PPG to win 13+ games. KC went 15-1 (ignoring the farce that was week 18) scoring 23.1 PPG. McDermott and Beane are telling us with their spending that that is the style of team they want to win with. So they better prove that the strategy can work. I still worry that all the defensive investments will mean nothing when we inevitably face KC in the playoffs, and that the offense will once again fail to close the deal when they have the chance because no one other than Allen can step up and make a play.

[SoMAn]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

But the passing game did suffer. For the first time since 2019 Allen was below 4,000 passing yards. Passing TDs also was the lowest since 2019. Passing success rate was below 50%, and again the lowest since 2019. It's inarguable that the weak WR talent made the passing offense significantly less productive.

 

They scored record points for a season.

I don't GAF about passing yards or a lot of other stats that fantasy footballers get hung up on. The only stat that really matters is number of wins.

And if the Bills made a serious effort in the final game, would have had a 14-win regular season - a team record.

 

Why should anyone care about passing yards?  Stats are often deceptive without in-depth analysis that can provide the real story.

Wins. The only stat that matters unless you're invested in the Fantasy game.

Marino had amazing passing stats. You can count on zero hand his number of Super Bowl wins. 

 

Elite WRs in the FA market are usually cost prohibitive when a team is trying to have competitive balance throughout the entire team roster.

The Bills best bet for a top-tier receiver is to find an affordable one in the draft. They'd either have to get real lucky or find a way to trade into the top 15. The best receivers coming out of college are usually gone by the time the Bills get to pick.

 

The idea that the Bills should have gotten their ace receiver this offseason is a head-scratcher. Offer a viable solution. Clearly, Beane didn't see a better option. If you or anyone has a better plan for securing the elusive #1 WR, I'd love to hear it.

[longtimebillsfan]

43 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

But the passing game did suffer. For the first time since 2019 Allen was below 4,000 passing yards. Passing TDs also was the lowest since 2019. Passing success rate was below 50%, and again the lowest since 2019. It's inarguable that the weak WR talent made the passing offense significantly less productive.

 

The offense made up for it however with great tackle play, getting explosive plays from the run game, and an all-time elimination of negative plays in the pass game (literally all-time - Allen had the lowest sack/INT/fumble percentage in NFL history). They were able to mask the WR room by playing an intentionally safe ball control style of offense and by Allen delivering the best performance of his career. That doesn't mean the lack of WR talent wasn't a problem; the volume passing stats show clearly that it was.

 

And ball control worked great, until the final two games of the season. Against Baltimore our inability to do anything on offense for the entire second half almost cost us a game that we had well in hand. The narrative of that game swung on a dropped 2 point conversion. Against KC we were forced into multiple 4th down conversion scenarios as a direct result of our small ball philosophy, and predictably we couldn't convert all of them so we lost. The needle proved too narrow to thread. I worry this season will suffer the same ending.

 

But this regime has made its bed and they have to lay in it. Looking at the total resources spent on the offense vs on the defense, the 2025 Bills really should be led by the defense. We shouldn't need to put up 30+ PPG to win 13+ games. KC went 15-1 (ignoring the farce that was week 18) scoring 23.1 PPG. McDermott and Beane are telling us with their spending that that is the style of team they want to win with. So they better prove that the strategy can work. I still worry that all the defensive investments will mean nothing when we inevitably face KC in the playoffs, and that the offense will once again fail to close the deal when they have the chance because no one other than Allen can step up and make a play.

Part of the decrease in passing stats was due to the increased reliance on the ground game.  We had a much more balanced offense than we have ever had with Josh as our quarterback.

[Kirby Jackson]

The question ultimately becomes, “is what they did last year during the regular season sustainable?” The offense worked well until it didn’t. They didn’t have enough juice to get the score when they needed it. Their passing game regressed significantly but it was enough in the regular season. The OL was incredible as was Josh. They set a record for lowest negative plays ever. If that regresses to the mean, can they overcome it? We look at last year’s results and, if we are simple, can say it worked. If we look at all of the underlying reasons that it worked, is it reasonable to expect that again?

 

p.s. The numbers were WAY better after the Amari acquisition. 

Edited 17 minutes ago by Kirby Jackson

[HappyDays]

31 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

Why should anyone care about passing yards?  Stats are often deceptive without in-depth analysis that can provide the real story.

Wins. The only stat that matters unless you're invested in the Fantasy game.

 

So I guess I don't necessarily care about total passing yards. I was just illustrating that although you said a lack of WR talent didn't impede us, the clear decline in volume passing stats and passing success rate is an indication that it in fact did impede us.

 

And of course wins are what counts. Especially playoff wins, where the Bills have now fallen short two years in a row because no one other than Allen was able to make a play at the end. This past AFCCG Cook made a clutch play to score a TD on 4th down. We need more of that from the players around Allen because those moments more than season-long stats are what win championships. When we were leading by 1 with a chance to go up by 8, our offense stalled out on 4th down because we were forced to try and drag ourselves downfield a few yards at a time. On the final offensive drive Cooper slipped on a 3rd down WR screen that should have been a 1st down and more, and then Kincaid dropped his clutch moment on 4th down and the game was over. All of the pretty looking season-long stats meant exactly nothing when we needed someone to come through in those moments.

 

It's funny you say wins are what count except to fantasy football people, but your whole argument is that our PPG means our WRs were good enough. My whole point is that what I'm talking about doesn't show up in any stats. It shows up in moments.

 

41 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

Offer a viable solution. Clearly, Beane didn't see a better option. If you or anyone has a better plan for securing the elusive #1 WR, I'd love to hear it.

 

Isn't it obvious? I'd have traded a 2nd and a 5th for DK Metcalf. His contract would have effectively replaced Diggs' contract which Beane had already been accounting for as part of the future salary cap before Diggs went scorched earth. That's the type of player this offense is missing, a true #1 that creates explosive plays downfield. And yeah that would have meant sacrificing a couple of our defensive signings and probably not extending Bernard. I'd have easily taken that trade off. But we'll find out if Beane's strategy was the right one.

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I agree with what you are saying but the Chiefs lost one game last season, so last year it wasn't gonna happen. Other years yeah.

 

On the topic of WR... I believe we will still have a top offense but I'd feel much better about it if we had a proven field stretcher on the outside. I have no idea how our new guys are going to work out as I really know nothing about them, but they seem to be just jags like we had last year. We have some good guys and the everybody eats thing, but without having at least a solid field stretcher I think it makes us easier to defend and relies too much on perfect Josh.

 

Should had never lost to the Texans or the Rams.

 

We had the tie breaker over KC when we beat them.

 

We find a way to beat Houston and LA and we're going into the final game of the season playing the starters against the Pats and a W means the #1 seed. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Motorin'

[Mikey152]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The question ultimately becomes, “is what they did last year during the regular season sustainable?” The offense worked well until it didn’t. They didn’t have enough juice to get the score when they needed it. Their passing game regressed significantly but it was enough in the regular season. The OL was incredible as was Josh. They set a record for lowest negative plays ever. If that regresses to the mean, can they overcome it? We look at last year’s results and, if we are simple, can say it worked. If we look at all of the underlying reasons that it worked, is it reasonable to expect that again.

 

p.s. The numbers were WAY better after the Amari acquisition. 

your PS is a lie...or at the very least overexaggerating because it fits your narrative.

 

Josh had two excellent three game stretches, from an efficiency standpoint.  One was the first three games, and the other was SF/LA/DET. They're super comparable in everything but quality of comp and attempts.

 

Cooper had a nice game against SF. Against SF and Detroit he didn't even get 50% of snaps and had 3 targets total for 12 yards.

 

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So I guess I don't necessarily care about total passing yards. I was just illustrating that although you said a lack of WR talent didn't impede us, the clear decline in volume passing stats and passing success rate is an indication that it in fact did impede us.

 

And of course wins are what counts. Especially playoff wins, where the Bills have now fallen short two years in a row because no one other than Allen was able to make a play at the end. This past AFCCG Cook made a clutch play to score a TD on 4th down. We need more of that from the players around Allen because those moments more than season-long stats are what win championships. When we were leading by 1 with a chance to go up by 8, our offense stalled out on 4th down because we were forced to try and drag ourselves downfield a few yards at a time. On the final offensive drive Cooper slipped on a 3rd down WR screen that should have been a 1st down and more, and then Kincaid dropped his clutch moment on 4th down and the game was over. All of the pretty looking season-long stats meant exactly nothing when we needed someone to come through in those moments.

 

It's funny you say wins are what count except to fantasy football people, but your whole argument is that our PPG means our WRs were good enough. My whole point is that what I'm talking about doesn't show up in any stats. It shows up in moments.

 

 

Isn't it obvious? I'd have traded a 2nd and a 5th for DK Metcalf. His contract would have effectively replaced Diggs' contract which Beane had already been accounting for as part of the future salary cap before Diggs went scorched earth. That's the type of player this offense is missing, a true #1 that creates explosive plays downfield. And yeah that would have meant sacrificing a couple of our defensive signings and probably not extending Bernard. I'd have easily taken that trade off. But we'll find out if Beane's strategy was the right one.

I think the problem is more with your assumptions...That the reason they were more conservative was because of the WR talent.

 

Ordinarily, more conservative should correlate with reduced scoring.  But if ANY coach can become more risk adverse AND score more points, who wouldn't take that?  Less passing and more scoring is a good thing.  

 

I know there is concern about rising to the occasion in a shootout, but I think the ability is there.  Looks at the Rams and Lions games.

 

 

[HappyDays]

48 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Part of the decrease in passing stats was due to the increased reliance on the ground game.  We had a much more balanced offense than we have ever had with Josh as our quarterback.

 

I think you have the cause/effect backwards. Part of the reason I think that is that McDermott's defensive scheme and philosophy is built around the idea that every time your opponent runs the ball it's a net positive for your defense. This has been a common criticism of his defense, that we too easily invite the run. So it would be weird to make that concept a staple of your defense, but then on the other side of the ball intentionally go run-heavy. I'm all for a balanced offense. But the team was forced to run that small ball style more than they really wanted to I am sure. No way McDermott wanted his offense to have 6 4th down conversion attempts in the AFCCG, and needing to convert at least 5 of them to even have a chance of winning the game, but that's what happened. The personnel dictated the game script and the game script dictated the outcome.

[DJB]

Josh Allen props up a very average group. 
 

We are still bottom 5

[SoMAn]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So I guess I don't necessarily care about total passing yards. I was just illustrating that although you said a lack of WR talent didn't impede us, the clear decline in volume passing stats and passing success rate is an indication that it in fact did impede us.

 

No.

The offense has been productive. It doesn't much matter if the points on the scoreboard come from rushing, the tush push, dink and dunk, play action, bubble screens, statue of liberty, etc. 

What should be obvious to anyone following the team is that It's the limitations of the defensive personnel that have kept the Bills from progressing further in the playoffs.  The offense has been scoring points.

 

EVERYONE knew the defensive side of the ball needed the most attention in the draft and FA signings. It would be great to have a marquee WR, but it's unlikely a team can fulfill their entire Wishlist in one offseason.  Maybe Cooper comes back and becomes a role player. Along with Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, Palmer, and progress from Coleman, the Bills have a decent enough stable of pass catchers. Add to that Ty Johnson, Cook, and Davis (who've all shown the ability to run routes and catch passes), I think the Bills will be just fine.

Even better if they can count on an improved D to get the ball back to them with greater frequency.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

your PS is a lie...or at the very least overexaggerating because it fits your narrative.

 

Josh had two excellent three game stretches, from an efficiency standpoint.  One was the first three games, and the other was SF/LA/DET. They're super comparable in everything but quality of comp and attempts.

 

Cooper had a nice game against SF. Against SF and Detroit he didn't even get 50% of snaps and had 3 targets total for 12 yards.

 

I think the problem is more with your assumptions...That the reason they were more conservative was because of the WR talent.

 

Ordinarily, more conservative should correlate with reduced scoring.  But if ANY coach can become more risk adverse AND score more points, who wouldn't take that?  Less passing and more scoring is a good thing.  

 

I know there is concern about rising to the occasion in a shootout, but I think the ability is there.  Looks at the Rams and Lions games.

 

 

Please go ahead and google the numbers before and after Cooper arrived. The numbers aren’t up for debate. Beane or McDermott talked about it last week. It was multiple PPG points and the passing game increased. My “assumptions” are based on facts and numbers. Using Cooper’s stats to debate the results is ridiculous. As I’ve now said to you 58 times in this thread, it isn’t just about what the player does!! It is also about how their presecence impacts coverage. I really don’t want to dig up the offensive numbers with and without Cooper. I’d prefer if you looked yourself or took my word for it. What you will find though is that they were way more effective once he got here for whatever reason.