I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Low Positive]

OMG!!!! Somebody said something positive about the Buffalo Bills on Two Bills Drive that turned out to be wrong! Let's bump the thread after loss!

[Your Brown Eye]

It is very rare that a OP is able to score every single emoji on a single post... you Sir are a true gentleman and scholar

 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   Kirby, it’s been out in plain site for years. And it isn’t just at receiver.

   Beane fills the roster with bargain basement signings en masse and hopes he will hit on a few. He has gotten lucky a few times but mostly not.

   All the old ad nauseum discussions come into play. Is it Josh lifting everyone up?, is the coaching actually not that bad? Are the margins just that close between good and bad teams? 
   In the end, for me, you are what your record says you are. It hasn’t worked and IMO it won’t work going forward.

 

The one big swing he took was on Von. It was the right decision at the time and is the right decision with hindsight. It didn’t work out but you took the right big swing.

[YodaMan79]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The one big swing he took was on Von. It was the right decision at the time and is the right decision with hindsight. It didn’t work out but you took the right big swing.

I can’t disagree with this take more, wow. Philosophically, I have no idea how anyone could land there. It’s such a different lens than how I see the team.

This would actually be a great debate over a couple drinks, because clearly we’re coming at this from completely opposite angles.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said:

I can’t disagree with this take more, wow. Philosophically, I have no idea how anyone could land there. It’s such a different lens than how I see the team.

This would actually be a great debate over a couple drinks, because clearly we’re coming at this from completely opposite angles.

They were 1 elite pass rusher from getting by KC. That wasn’t a long play. That was meant to instantly put them over the top. He was just coming off getting the Rams over the top. If healthy, they would have had 2 to 3 years to win one (or more). You had prime Josh and were 13 seconds away from a Super Bowl. That wasn’t time to worry about 3 years from now. It didn’t work but I absolutely, 100% supported it at the time and still do. 
 

On a side note, I’d love to have the conversation over some drinks. 🤣🤣 I’ve gotten into some good bourbons over the last few years. Let’s do it!! TBD Christmas party!!

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I didn’t mean to imply you did either, but I do recall us having an argument on where Shakir maxes out on the efficiency/volume curve, and I was of the opinion that 2024 was the ceiling.

Our disagreement was really his ceiling as a player vs his ceiling as a Buffalo Bill under a Joe Brady offense. Whatever you think his ceiling is here with Brady, I think it is higher if he was on another team outside Brady’s offense.  
 

He was on a 1000 yard pace last year had he not missed 2 1/2 games (game he left early getting hurt, game he missed while hurt, and week 18 when we sat out top players) he would have been a 1000+ yard receiver.  And that’s on an offense that under utilizes him and forces way too many throws to him at or near the LOS.  
 

If he was on a team playing next to a legit WR1 in a passing offense, like say the Rams next to Nacua, I think it’s quite plausible he could add another couple hundred yards to his production.  Especially if he’s getting more than just bubble screens thrown to him half the time.  Or put him on a team that knows how to maximize his talents like KC and he would feast.

 

So where we disagree is that his production has peaked here overall based on his abilities.  Where we do agree is that he shouldn’t be the top target WR1 on a team and his production ceiling here under Joe Brady is what we are seeing, especially with us missing a true WR1 and any downfield threat around him.  But he’s better than what we get out of him here even though he’s been pretty damn good here.
 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Alphadawg7

[BuffaloBillyG]

On 6/23/2024 at 8:27 AM, Thurman#1 said:

Deeper, yes, I think that's completely legit.

 

Better? Without Diggs? No, absolutely not, unless somebody like Coleman or Claypool takes a huge step up. But could they be a functional efficient group that can move the ball and give defenses a lot of trouble? Yeah, I think so, particularly with Josh throwing to them and a run game that threatens.

Wonder what he's up to these days. Kinda shocked they haven't revisited him being here as McDermott and Beane had a lot of glowing things to say about him. 

[BillsFan130]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Diggs was getting fed at the expense of the team.  Personally, I thought Dorsey got scapegoated for giving the world what it wants.......Josh Allen throwing the ball all over the field.   But Diggs was getting doubled and that allowed teams to put CB1 on Gabe Davis and make throwing to him extremely unproductive.  The personnel wasn't there to make that the right approach and I thought Dorsey had already begun the changes a couple weeks prior that Brady would further lean into.  They lost that Denver game because of a substitution error by McDermott at the end of the game.   Dorsey got scapegoated but as I said at the time it wasn't a big dropoff and a shot in the arm couldn't hurt.  Brady was capable.  

 

They went from 5-5 at the time and then won 23 of their next 27 meaningful regular season games under Brady.

 

The issue here isn't the OC.

 

Does he have some ineffective calls we hate every week?  Yes, but that only seems like a HUGE problem because the margin for error has diminished as the available talent has.   As impotent as they've looked on the road they might have won those Atlanta and Houston games just having Glass Kincaid healthy.

https://youtu.be/UOknd4MmQOE?si=eB3GvjQ2OAgc0EIQ

 

I would highly recommend listening to Joe Marinos all 22 if you think Joe Brady isn't a problem.

 

Couple main things he goes over, which doesn't even include some of his goofy play calls:

 

1. Bills had a 5 man protection 90 percent of the time against Houston... Even though anyone could see their protection couldn't hold up and factoring in they were playing with a backup right tackle for parts of the game, the bills refused to help their o line with an extra blocker.

 

2. Bills relied way too much on mesh- These routes take forever to develop. So Joe Brady is spamming this concept, with a 5 man protection scheme that couldn't hold up🤮

 

3. Houston gave a ton of light boxes. Bills averaged 6 yards a run, but Cook only had 17 carries in the game.

No one is saying he has a ton to work with. But that doesn't excuse Joe Brady.

 

And This is far from Joe Brady's only bad game. He is absolutely horrible at making in game adjustments 

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Our disagreement was really his ceiling as a player vs his ceiling as a Buffalo Bill under a Joe Brady offense. Whatever you think his ceiling is here with Brady, I think it is higher if he was on another team outside Brady’s offense.  
 

He was on a 1000 yard pace last year had he not missed 2 1/2 games (game he left early getting hurt, game he missed while hurt, and week 18 when we sat out top players) he would have been a 1000+ yard receiver.  And that’s on an offense that under utilizes him and forces way too many throws to him at or near the LOS.  
 

If he was on a team playing next to a legit WR1 in a passing offense, like say the Rams next to Nacua, I think it’s quite plausible he could add another couple hundred yards to his production.  Especially if he’s getting more than just bubble screens thrown to him half the time.  Or put him on a team that knows how to maximize his talents like KC and he would feast.

 

So where we disagree is that his production has peaked here overall based on his abilities.  Where we do agree is that he shouldn’t be the top target WR1 on a team and his production ceiling here under Joe Brady is what we are seeing, especially with us missing a true WR1 and any downfield threat around him.  But he’s better than what we get out of him here even though he’s been pretty damn good here.
 

 

I know that's your take, but I also think that's wrong.

 

Shakir's #1 target threat here is Keon Coleman, a guy who has been benched for 2 games.  I don't know where you think he is getting a couple extra hundred yards of production from with a legitimate threat across from him.

 

In fact, we even have evidence of what it looks like when Shakir has a true #1 he's behind, even one whose role and target share in the offense diminished. In 2023, with Diggs. 

 

Shakir from the TB game in 2023 - end of the season, with a true #1 and Gabe Davis, was on a 52 catch and 911 yard pace.  

 

In 2024, his pace was 86 catch and 930 yards. 

 

Today, he is on a 83 catch and 871 yard pace.

 

This is who he is. When he becomes more of a focal point, his insane efficiency drops. When he has even a lower-end #1 WR, his efficiency jumps, but he doesn't get the target share. 

 

I suspect if you eliminated every bubble screen or gadget play we have dished out to him, his target total would look a lot like his 2023 season with Diggs. Because it's just not that simple to get him targets without manufacturing them.

 

This reminds me a lot of arguing that Stevie Johnson would be even better with other legitimate WRs. But the fact of the matter is that #2 and #3 WR's very rarely put up more volume numbers when they have a true #1 across from them unless they are basically superstars themselves. The second we brought in a Robert Woods-type, Stevie's counting numbers dropped like a rock. A guy across from Shakir getting 140 targets isn't going to get him an extra 20. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They were 1 elite pass rusher from getting by KC. That wasn’t a long play. That was meant to instantly put them over the top. He was just coming off getting the Rams over the top. If healthy, they would have had 2 to 3 years to win one (or more). You had prime Josh and were 13 seconds away from a Super Bowl. That wasn’t time to worry about 3 years from now. It didn’t work but I absolutely, 100% supported it at the time and still do. 
 

On a side note, I’d love to have the conversation over some drinks. 🤣🤣 I’ve gotten into some good bourbons over the last few years. Let’s do it!! TBD Christmas party!!

Problem is, von was past his prime 

[Einstein]

Just now, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Problem is, von was past his prime 

I am convinced that we have a Lombardi right now if Beane traded for Von when the Rams did. 

All it took was a 2nd round pick, but Beane apparently thought that was too much. 

All we needed was ONE stop in the 13 second game and Von (who was in his prime then), likely would have netted us that. Instead Beane did not want to part with his precious draft pick, so the Rams did and they won the Super Bowl.

[vincec]

39 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

https://youtu.be/UOknd4MmQOE?si=eB3GvjQ2OAgc0EIQ

 

I would highly recommend listening to Joe Marinos all 22 if you think Joe Brady isn't a problem.

 

Couple main things he goes over, which doesn't even include some of his goofy play calls:

 

1. Bills had a 5 man protection 90 percent of the time against Houston... Even though anyone could see their protection couldn't hold up and factoring in they were playing with a backup right tackle for parts of the game, the bills refused to help their o line with an extra blocker.

 

2. Bills relied way too much on mesh- These routes take forever to develop. So Joe Brady is spamming this concept, with a 5 man protection scheme that couldn't hold up🤮

 

3. Houston gave a ton of light boxes. Bills averaged 6 yards a run, but Cook only had 17 carries in the game.

No one is saying he has a ton to work with. But that doesn't excuse Joe Brady.

 

And This is far from Joe Brady's only bad game. He is absolutely horrible at making in game adjustments 

The problem with this approach is that when the Bills kept a 6th and 7th man in Houston just rushed 1 or two more players, they didn’t drop them into coverage. There was no need because the coverage was already lights out. Houston got sacks when the Bills had 7 man protections in this game, like when trying play action.

[SoonerBillsFan]

45 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

https://youtu.be/UOknd4MmQOE?si=eB3GvjQ2OAgc0EIQ

 

I would highly recommend listening to Joe Marinos all 22 if you think Joe Brady isn't a problem.

 

Couple main things he goes over, which doesn't even include some of his goofy play calls:

 

1. Bills had a 5 man protection 90 percent of the time against Houston... Even though anyone could see their protection couldn't hold up and factoring in they were playing with a backup right tackle for parts of the game, the bills refused to help their o line with an extra blocker.

 

2. Bills relied way too much on mesh- These routes take forever to develop. So Joe Brady is spamming this concept, with a 5 man protection scheme that couldn't hold up🤮

 

3. Houston gave a ton of light boxes. Bills averaged 6 yards a run, but Cook only had 17 carries in the game.

No one is saying he has a ton to work with. But that doesn't excuse Joe Brady.

 

And This is far from Joe Brady's only bad game. He is absolutely horrible at making in game adjustments 

I cant put enough thank you's amd even amens on this post.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I am convinced that we have a Lombardi right now if Beane traded for Von when the Rams did. 

All it took was a 2nd round pick, but Beane apparently thought that was too much. 

All we needed was ONE stop in the 13 second game and Von (who was in his prime then), likely would have netted us that. Instead Beane did not want to part with his precious draft pick, so the Rams did and they won the Super Bowl.

We may be saying that about the Waddle trade FWIW.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I am convinced that we have a Lombardi right now if Beane traded for Von when the Rams did. 

All it took was a 2nd round pick, but Beane apparently thought that was too much. 

All we needed was ONE stop in the 13 second game and Von (who was in his prime then), likely would have netted us that. Instead Beane did not want to part with his precious draft pick, so the Rams did and they won the Super Bowl.

Gotta hang onto those picks so you can draft a boogie basham or Cody Ford or Keon Coleman dontcha know 

[BillsFan130]

8 minutes ago, vincec said:

The problem with this approach is that when the Bills kept a 6th and 7th man in Houston just rushed 1 or two more players, they didn’t drop them into coverage. There was no need because the coverage was already lights out. Houston got sacks when the Bills had 7 man protections in this game, like when trying play action.

Ya but you have to do something to help out your o line. Whether that's chipping, or keeping an extra guy into block. It's unacceptable to basically put your backup o lineman on an island against Will Anderson.

 

If you do leave 5 man protection, you NEED to have quick routes and not spam Mesh.

Joe Brady failed this offence in so many ways on Thursday night and it's remarkable Josh didn't leave with a serious injury 

[Alphadawg7]

49 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I know that's your take, but I also think that's wrong.

 

Shakir's #1 target threat here is Keon Coleman, a guy who has been benched for 2 games.  I don't know where you think he is getting a couple extra hundred yards of production from with a legitimate threat across from him.

 

In fact, we even have evidence of what it looks like when Shakir has a true #1 he's behind, even one whose role and target share in the offense diminished. In 2023, with Diggs. 

 

Shakir from the TB game in 2023 - end of the season, with a true #1 and Gabe Davis, was on a 52 catch and 911 yard pace.  

 

In 2024, his pace was 86 catch and 930 yards. 

 

Today, he is on a 83 catch and 871 yard pace.

 

This is who he is. When he becomes more of a focal point, his insane efficiency drops. When he has even a lower-end #1 WR, his efficiency jumps, but he doesn't get the target share. 

 

I suspect if you eliminated every bubble screen or gadget play we have dished out to him, his target total would look a lot like his 2023 season with Diggs. Because it's just not that simple to get him targets without manufacturing them.

 

This reminds me a lot of arguing that Stevie Johnson would be even better with other legitimate WRs. But the fact of the matter is that #2 and #3 WR's very rarely put up more volume numbers when they have a true #1 across from them unless they are basically superstars themselves. The second we brought in a Robert Woods-type, Stevie's counting numbers dropped like a rock. A guy across from Shakir getting 140 targets isn't going to get him an extra 20. 

You didn’t even address the key point which is the fact he is in Brady’s offense.  And when he was opposite Diggs under Brady he produced more yards than Diggs on half the targets.  That’s shows 2 things, when he has a WR1 he can be used in more areas of the field than Bubble screens and that Brady doesn’t know how to make use of his WRs or a WR1 given Diggs production fell off a cliff despite his targets remaining high as he turned Diggs into a short throw WR.  
 

So no disrespect, you actually only further made my point IMHO.  That in a different offense his ceiling is higher than it is here from a production standpoint.  And you again mention his totals last year as a ceiling yet ignore he lost about 2 1/2 games of production, not to mention the many times last year we stopped passing in the 2nd half in blow out wins for whole quarters even some halves.

 

Edited 43 minutes ago by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

You didn’t even address the key point which is the fact he is in Brady’s offense.  And when he was opposite Diggs under Brady he produced more yards than Diggs on half the targets.  That’s shows 2 things, when he has a WR1 he can be used in more areas of the field than Bubble screens and that Brady doesn’t know how to make use of his WRs or a WR1 given Diggs production fell off a cliff despite his targets remaining high as he turned Diggs into a short throw WR.  
 

So no disrespect, you actually only further made point IMHO.  That in a different offense his ceiling is higher than it is here from a production standpoint.  And you again mention his totals last year as a ceiling yet ignore he lost about 2 1/2 games of production, not to mention the many times last year we stopped passing in the 2nd half in blow out wins for whole quarters even some halves.

I posted his pace from Tampa - end of the regular season of all the games he played, not his totals.

 

how is it that Brady doesn’t know how to use WRs but his 2023 efficiency was awesome?

 

Did Brady forget how to use him? Did Brady first forget Diggs instead of Shakir, and not forget how to use him until 2024?

We have a ton of evidence that this is who Shakir is at this point. We have zero evidence that he would be a 1100 or 1200 yard receiver elsewhere.

[Kirby Jackson]

33 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Problem is, von was past his prime 

He was certainly on the back end of his prime. He was coming off being a difference maker for a Super Bowl Champ. He wasn’t 2015 Von Miller but you’d have gotten 3 good years if healthy. That was the plan. If I recall your options were Von and Chandler Jones. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

https://youtu.be/UOknd4MmQOE?si=eB3GvjQ2OAgc0EIQ

 

I would highly recommend listening to Joe Marinos all 22 if you think Joe Brady isn't a problem.

 

Couple main things he goes over, which doesn't even include some of his goofy play calls:

 

1. Bills had a 5 man protection 90 percent of the time against Houston... Even though anyone could see their protection couldn't hold up and factoring in they were playing with a backup right tackle for parts of the game, the bills refused to help their o line with an extra blocker.

 

2. Bills relied way too much on mesh- These routes take forever to develop. So Joe Brady is spamming this concept, with a 5 man protection scheme that couldn't hold up🤮

 

3. Houston gave a ton of light boxes. Bills averaged 6 yards a run, but Cook only had 17 carries in the game.

No one is saying he has a ton to work with. But that doesn't excuse Joe Brady.

 

And This is far from Joe Brady's only bad game. He is absolutely horrible at making in game adjustments 

 

 

It's not news that the Bills do not have great coaching.   But who does?  

 

KC's HoF coaching staff can be cited for leaving wins on the table this year in the same regard.  

 

The Eagles won the SB last year with a sh!t show at HC and a DC who the Bills OC's repeatedly beat like a rented mule in Denver and Miami.   I mean how many times did the Bills make Fangio look like the game had passed him by?

 

Over the past couple of seasons I think the Bills rank higher as a coaching staff than as a roster.   That's a problem because their roster begins with player #1 in the league.   They just have ZERO elite talent at any other premium position.  

 

It's left little to no margin for error.  

 

And in that stretch of 24 wins in Brady's first 27 meaningful regular season games as OC they had just enough talent available to execute.   And what Brady was doing was seen as innovative.

 

In the 2 losses last year and the 4 this year the common thread is not having all of their "modest" pass game weapons available and subsequent turnovers with players trying to do too much.