DeVonta Smith - 3 yr $75M, $51M guaranteed - Does this kill any Bills trade talk for a star WR?

[Alphadawg7]

DeVonta Smith got his bag today, and $25m/per is no small number.  I would think Aiyuk will command more than this, and I know a lot of people have been thinking Bills could trade for him, make some crazy offer for Jefferson, or even Higgins (no thanks).  

 

I have a hard time seeing Beane see this kind of money going out for a WR2 and thinking its a good idea to trade for a WR1 likely to cost more than this.  I won't rule it out, Beane has shown to be aggressive when he wants a player, but I would think this pushes Aiyuk contract demands up even more and I am gonna guess Jefferson might end up the first WR over $30M (Hill being the first to hit $30M).   

 

We are staring at a historically great WR draft, so is Beane going to focus there (maybe he already was) or would he still pull the trigger knowing he is gonna have to pay one north of $25M per?  My gut says draft, we are in a different cap situation then when we traded for Diggs and Allen was on his rookie deal still, so hard to see him want to take on that much cap with a WR draft this strong in front of him.  But never know...

 

 

 

Edited April 15 by Alphadawg7

[Bruffalo]

That's a high number, but it shows you the positional value WR has.

 

If you have a chance to bring in a top 10 guy though I think you've gotta bite the bullet and go for it. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

That's a high number, but it shows you the positional value WR has.

 

If you have a chance to bring in a top 10 guy though I think you've gotta bite the bullet and go for it. 

It's also something you can do when your QB isn't costing you $30-40M on the cap. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

That's a high number, but it shows you the positional value WR has.

 

If you have a chance to bring in a top 10 guy though I think you've gotta bite the bullet and go for it. 

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

[MasterStrategist]

Not only will the price tag of a Aiyuk, JJ, Higgins be alot, but the draft capital as well.  We're likely talking a future 1st rounder at minimum.

 

If we're going to drop a future 1st, I'd rather do what it takes to move up for 1 one of the top 3 in this years draft.

 

I could see Beane wanting to get that "stud" prospect OR building our WR group like the GB model (young collective unit, but no #1).

 

Either way, I don't see us trading for a premier WR

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I don't think it makes any sense to trade for a star receiver considering we can't pay them without getting into cap hell. 

 

I'd rather use the draft picks we have to take a chance on a top wr in the 1st and have them under contract for up to 5 years for a low cap hit.

[Bruffalo]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

All of those with the exception of Dallas and maybe SF put the cart before the horse though, they were trying to make up subpar QB play with star WRs.

 

It doesn't matter how good your WR are if you can't consistently get the ball to them. 

17 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It's also something you can do when your QB isn't costing you $30-40M on the cap. 

Totally, the QB cap hit is a massive roadblock, but if you're investing in your QB then you need to also invest in the weapons around him. Either with high draft picks every year (in the hopes you land a top 10-15 WR), or with a big contract veteran.

 

 

Edited April 15 by Bruffalo

[DJB]

We were never trading for a high end WR that needed a new contract anyways . 
 

[boyst]

i don't think anything changes Beane's mind, ever. that's why i voted no.

 

look all he went through to get Frank Gore, Eman Sanders, and a few others.

 

the question will be does this influence the minds of the Bills Org. or put a damper on it???

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It's also something you can do when your QB isn't costing you $30-40M on the cap. 

The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract. 

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

[CaptnCoke11]

That’s the price of having good players.  With the cap going up every year I see no problem with it 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Eagles have 2 WR1s. Dolphins will have to do this also. I don’t think SF will.

[MasterStrategist]

12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract. 

Their window with Hurts/Brown/Smith are the next couple years.

 

AJ Brown likely gone in 2026

[Blackbeard]

Move up and draft a known, will-be #1.    

 

Rookie deal.

 

movin' on up.. movin' on up.. to the top..  to the top..  

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

All of those with the exception of Dallas and maybe SF put the cart before the horse though, they were trying to make up subpar QB play with star WRs.

 

It doesn't matter how good your WR are if you can't consistently get the ball to them. 

Totally, the QB cap hit is a massive roadblock, but if you're investing in your QB then you need to also invest in the weapons around him. Either with high draft picks every year (in the hopes you land a top 10-15 WR), or with a big contract veteran.

 

 

 

Huh?  Miami's QB was an MVP candidate and still couldn't win the division with both Hill and Waddle and a 4 game lead last in the season.  Eagles had their MVP candidate QB too and didn't get the job done yet with both AJ Brown and Smith.  Cincy has Burrow and didn't get the job done with both Chase and Higgins.  Dallas has Dak who has been one of the most prolific passers statistically in the NFL who had Cooper and Lamb.  

 

So...yeah...your counter point makes no sense considering Dallas, SF, Mia, and Phi all had QB's who have been MVP candidates.  Chargers had Allen and Williams with Herbert and can't even make the playoffs.  

[Victory Formation]

You don’t eat $30M in dead cap just to sign another receiver for $25M/yr.

[Bruffalo]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Huh?  Miami's QB was an MVP candidate and still couldn't win the division with both Hill and Waddle and a 4 game lead last in the season.  Eagles had their MVP candidate QB too and didn't get the job done yet with both AJ Brown and Smith.  Cincy has Burrow and didn't get the job done with both Chase and Higgins.  Dallas has Dak who has been one of the most prolific passers statistically in the NFL who had Cooper and Lamb.  

 

So...yeah...your counter point makes no sense considering Dallas, SF, Mia, and Phi all had QB's who have been MVP candidates.  Chargers had Allen and Williams with Herbert and can't even make the playoffs.  

Anyone who actually watching Tua play knows that he is not the elite QB the stats were making him out to be.

 

You didn't mention the Eagles or Cincy, but they both got to a superbowl with elite WR talent, just because they didn't win one game doesn't mean it's not a sound strategy. 

 

I said Dallas was an exception. You're just adding random teams after the fact. 

 

[BarleyNY]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

 

Cap hits can be lowered like this if an owner is willing to spend. 

[H2o]

If we're talking about Aiyuk? Yes. 

 

If Seattle is looking to move DK? No. His cap hits are much more manageable over the next two years and a contract could be revisited after we fully escape cap hell in 2025. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

Anyone who actually watching Tua play knows that he is not the elite QB the stats were making him out to be.

 

You didn't mention the Eagles or Cincy, but they both got to a superbowl with elite WR talent, just because they didn't win one game doesn't mean it's not a sound strategy. 

 

I said Dallas was an exception. You're just adding random teams after the fact. 

 

No, I was adding more to further the point.  And winning a SB is what matters, so pretty sure not winning that one game is kind of a big deal

[Bruffalo]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

No, I was adding more to further the point.  And winning a SB is what matters, so pretty sure not winning that one game is kind of a big deal

You added a lot of very successful teams with elite WRs and then proceeded to essentially argue that the position is overvalued. I don't see how that makes sense. 

 

Regardless, I think the position is worth paying for unless you go the KC-style route and just keep reinvesting high draft picks into the WR room.

[90sBills]

The more teams invest chunks of their cap space to the wr position the bigger KC’s advantage becomes. Must be a nice position sitting on top and having your chasers over spend. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It's also something you can do when your QB isn't costing you $30-40M on the cap. 

 

Hmmm, well, maybe?  We do know that Hurts signed a 5 year, $255M contract with $179M guaranteed last spring, right?

 

 I mean, you're not wrong, but a look at Hurts actual cap impacts....makes my head hurt

 

Edit:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/jalen-hurts-47648/

 

I flatter myself that I'm decent at capology, and that one still makes my head hurt. 

 

 

Edited April 15 by Beck Water

[BarleyNY]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hmmm, well, maybe?  We do know that Hurts signed a 5 year, $255M contract with $179M guaranteed last spring, right?

 

 I mean, you're not wrong, but a look at Hurts actual cap impacts....makes my head hurt

 

 

 

The Hurts deal shows how a team with an owner willing to consistently spend cash can gain a competitive advantage. The Browns are doing the same thing. Those teams rank 3rd and 1st in cash spend this season at $282.2M and $337.3M. The Eagles figure does not include the Smith deal so it’ll go higher. The Bills are 23rd at $214.0M. Link

[Beast]

There will be a day in the near future when GM’s realize great QB’s drive an offense and the WR position will get devalued a bit like the running back position.

Edited April 15 by Beast

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Beast said:

There will be a day in the near future when GM’s realize great QB’s drive an offense and the WR position will get devalued a bit like the running back position.

QB’s are already the highest paid position by a lot lol.

[ngbills]

It just shows why you need to draft a good one. Its becoming one of the harder and more expensive positions to fill in free agency. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

What strategy does pay off?

[Beast]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

QB’s are already the highest paid position by a lot lol.

Ummmm, no *****? What does that have to do with my statement?

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Beast said:

Ummmm, no *****? What does that have to do with my statement?

Because your statement was something NFL FO’s have known for decades and was very silly?

 

One day they will realize great QBs are more important than WR’s. I think that day came and went in 1982 my guy. 

[Scott7975]

I never thought the Bills were in play for a big time WR.  They are in a reset year and had to dump a bunch of our talent due to age and or cap hits. Their strategy right now is to get the cap back under control and draft well IMO.  I do think they are players to possibly move up to get a potential star receiver and if they do so they are probably good for the next 5 years.  Providing they actually get the right guy.

[BeastMaster]

I'm not a trade up for a WR guy, but I would do that before blowing picks and cap space to aquire Aiyuk or any other receiver that wants big money

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What strategy does pay off?

Im not saying it’s not good to have good WR group, I’m saying over weighing your assets into WR rather than balancing the roster has yet to really payoff for anyone.  
 

Which is why I doubt Beane is going to both trade draft capital and pay Aiyuk in the high 20’s.  
 

Id rather trade up for Odunze and at least get his cheaper contract, and that’s not because I don’t like Aiyuk, because I think he would be great with Allen.  But if we tie up all that cap space and lose draft assets it’s going to hold us back at multiple valuable positions on this team through the loss of draft talent or the ability to sign people in free agency, including our own when they come due.

 

And we already came up short having a top 5 WR the last 4 years as it is.

[Warcodered]

Not for nothing but if this just got announced today do we still need to wait and see how the actual numbers shake down to his cap hit on the year? Wouldn't it have actually have gone down this year usually?

Edited April 15 by Warcodered

[SoonerBillsFan]

Sorry but that is a stupid contract for him.

[FireChans]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Im not saying it’s not good to have good WR group, I’m saying over weighing your assets into WR rather than balancing the roster has yet to really payoff for anyone.  
 

Which is why I doubt Beane is going to both trade draft capital and pay Aiyuk in the high 20’s.  
 

Id rather trade up for Odunze and at least get his cheaper contract, and that’s not because I don’t like Aiyuk, because I think he would be great with Allen.  But if we tie up all that cap space and lose draft assets it’s going to hold us back at multiple valuable positions on this team through the loss of draft talent or the ability to sign people in free agency, including our own when they come due.

 

And we already came up short having a top 5 WR the last 4 years as it is.

We don’t have a ton of assets unfortunately. So I do agree with you.

 

I would much rather have 2 cost controlled WR’s at this stage of our team. But that’s really just because it’s the reality of the 2024 Bills. Ideally, I would take a WR high and get an Aiyuk if I could. 

 

But the facts of the matter are clear. The Eagles used a top 10 pick on Smith, and traded a first for Brown and signed him to big money. They went from a fringe playoff team to a SB team.

 

The Bengals used a top 10 pick on Chase, and pick 33 on Tee Higgins. They went from the worst team in football to a SB team.

 

The 49ers remained an SB team by spending a first round pick on WR, and giving Deebo and Kittle and CMC big money. All without a great QB. 
 

The Rams paid big money to Kupp, Gave Woods a decent sized contract, traded a second for Watkins, traded a first for Cooks, and brought in OBJ for a run. They went to two Super Bowls and won 1.

 

The Bucs invested a lot in their group of Evans, Godwin, etc etc for their SB.

 

 

really, the only team to go to with a horrific receiving target group was the Chiefs. And much like the old Patriots, it’s hard to replicate their strategy because they win even when their strategy sucks. And they didn’t even not invest, they just had crappy investments. 2nd for Toney, 2nd for Skyy Moore, 2nd for Rice. 

 

Surround your great QB with talent so he can be great in the biggest moments is obviously the way.  We have the QB. It’s time to invest in the talent around him.

Edited April 15 by FireChans

[90sBills]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We don’t have a ton of assets unfortunately. So I do agree with you.

 

I would much rather have 2 cost controlled WR’s at this stage of our team. But that’s really just because it’s the reality of the 2024 Bills. Ideally, I would take a WR high and get an Aiyuk if I could. 

 

But the facts of the matter are clear. The Eagles used a top 10 pick on Smith, and traded a first for Brown and signed him to big money. They went from a fringe playoff team to a SB team.

 

The Bengals used a top 10 pick on Chase, and pick 33 on Tee Higgins. They went from the worst team in football to a SB team.

 

The 49ers remained an SB team by spending a first round pick on WR, and giving Deebo and Kittle and CMC big money. All without a great QB. 
 

The Rams paid big money to Kupp, Gave Woods a decent sized contract, traded a second for Watkins, traded a first for Cooks, and brought in OBJ for a run. They went to two Super Bowls and won 1.

 

The Bucs invested a lot in their group of Evans, Godwin, etc etc for their SB.

 

 

really, the only team to go to with a horrific receiving target group was the Chiefs. And much like the old Patriots, it’s hard to replicate their strategy because they win even when their strategy sucks. And they didn’t even not invest, they just had crappy investments. 2nd for Toney, 2nd for Skyy Moore, 2nd for Rice. 

 

Surround your great QB with talent so he can be great in the biggest moments is obviously the way.  We have the QB. It’s time to invest in the talent around him.

It was 2nd for Hardman not Toney but your point remains. I think it worked for NE during their run and it’s working now with KC because they had/have QBs that were/are relentless at being the best and could squeeze more from mediocre guys than most could.

 

For the Bills I agree that we have to surround Allen with as much talent as possible. Diggs was a top 5 wr and it was still not enough. So we’d need two of those types of guys. It’s better to hit them in the draft than overpay in free agency so there could be resources for other areas. I don’t think it’s feasible to chase top wr free agents by overpaying.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

It was 2nd for Hardman not Toney but your point remains. I think it worked for NE during their run and it’s working now with KC because they had/have QBs that were/are relentless at being the best and could squeeze more from mediocre guys than most could.

 

For the Bills I agree that we have to surround Allen with as much talent as possible. Diggs was a top 5 wr and it was still not enough. So we’d need two of those types of guys. It’s better to hit them in the draft than overpay in free agency so there could be resources for other areas. I don’t think it’s feasible to chase top wr free agents by overpaying.

Yes it was a second for Hardman and a third and 6th for Toney. 
 

That’s why I keep asking @Alphadawg7 what strategy he thinks works. The only fool-proof strategy to be a consistent SB winner is to acquire the greatest QB of the generation and pair him with one of the greatest coaches of the generation. Then it doesn’t matter what you do.

 

Nothing else works.

[90sBills]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yes it was a second for Hardman and a third and 6th for Toney. 
 

That’s why I keep asking @Alphadawg7 what strategy he thinks works. The only fool-proof strategy to be a consistent SB winner is to acquire the greatest QB of the generation and pair him with one of the greatest coaches of the generation. Then it doesn’t matter what you do.

 

Nothing else works.

Yeah that kind of qb/coach combo is really the secret sauce for dynasties. 
 

I think most see how it worked great for KC and think why can’t Bills do that? They think Allen is equal to or might even be better than Mahomes so just get a few average guys and Allen could elevate them. Unfortunately it hasn’t worked out that way.

 

I think the strategy should be draft at least two receivers this year. It’s a talented group coming out. Get 2 bona fide studs and match them with Kincaid. We’d then have 4-5 years of their rookie contract service to make a run. Gotta hit on 2. Get to work Beane!