Beane Discusses Draft Strategy w/ Pat McAfee

[BADOLBILZ]

48 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Do I think Shakir is capable of a 1000+ yard season if he got the targets…yes I do.  I was on him going into the draft and even said prior to the draft to keep an eye on Shakir to the Bills.  And nothing he’s done since arriving has deterred my confidence in him as a WR.  
 

I however didn’t say he would primarily be a boundary WR or even a WR1 as you just said in your posts.  He will be someone that will move inside and out and is an ascending player whose efficiency last year was more than impressive.  13.5 yards per target is crazy good to go along with like an 87% catch rate.    
 

So yes, I’m confident in him, he’s earned that.  But there’s no reason to over exaggerate my confidence in him the way you are as if I’m making bigger claims for him than I am.

 

 

 

 

OK so:

 

1) What do you EXPECT him to achieve in the next 2 seasons?

 

2) What do you think his ceiling is?

 

You are talking about what you anticipated of him in the past tense.   There WERE multiple people who insisted he could become as good as Stef Diggs.  Anytime a WR projected to go round 2 goes in round 5 there are a ton of people who will predict greatness for that player.

 

I'm just trying to clarify so that when his small sample size production turns into Cooper Kupp 2021 I can give you credit.    

 

For example,  when I promoted the Bills selecting him in round 1 of the 2014 draft I predicted Aaron Donald could get 10 sacks as a rookie, which was a crazy high bar for a rookie DT.  He got 9.  He fell short.......but also I didn't exactly predict that he WOULD get that.  I predicted he "could" get that.   That's why I don't use it as a key data point with that opinion.  

 

So now is your chance, shoot your shot on Khalil.

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good player but he seems to replicate skillsets we have on the roster. I think he will ultimately do a lot of his damage in the NFL from the slot. He is a bit like Samuel he can do some outside stuff and be moved around the formation but he isn't going to be a game wrecking outside receiver. He is going to be a guy who lines up all over catches the ball and gets some YAC. I don't think you have much diversity in your receiving corps with a 30 year old Diggs plus Samuel, Shakir and McConkey. 

 

That's exactly what I have been reading about him.

 

If we don't address our #2 WR, could this be a shared responsibility between Shakir, Samuel, Hollins and lets say a McConkey?  

 

I am on the WR train first but I can easily seeing us going edge or even safety in round 1.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good player but he seems to replicate skillsets we have on the roster. I think he will ultimately do a lot of his damage in the NFL from the slot. He is a bit like Samuel he can do some outside stuff and be moved around the formation but he isn't going to be a game wrecking outside receiver. He is going to be a guy who lines up all over catches the ball and gets some YAC. I don't think you have much diversity in your receiving corps with a 30 year old Diggs plus Samuel, Shakir and McConkey. 

 

 

His lack of production at Georgia supports the Samuel comparison.   

20 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

So was the 2022 draft, hence why I brought it up. 6 WRs went in the first and 12 went in the first two rounds and I proved your point to be false in that. Sure you can look in hindsight and say it wasn’t as strong now but in 2022 it was considered considerably deep. 
 

Here is your list of 2023 1000 yards, whether they achieved it in their first two years and where they were drafted in their class. 
 

Tyreek Hill- Yes first two years , went in the 5th round 

 

Ceedee Lamb Yes first two years , 1st round 

Amon Ra St. Brown- Yes first two years 4th round

 

Puka Nacua - Yes 5th round

 

AJ Brown - Yes 2nd round

 

DJ Moore- Yes 1st round

 

Brandon Aiyuk- No 1st round

 

Nico Collins- Yes 3rd round

 

Mike Evans - Yes 1st round 

 

Amari Cooper- Yes 1st round

Keenan Allen Yes 3rd Round

 

Jamarr Chase Yes 1st Round

 

Stefon Diggs- No 5th Round

 

Michael Pittman- Yes 2nd Round

 

Davante Adams No- 2nd Round

 

Adam Thielen- No- Undrafted

 

George Pickens- Yes 2nd Round

 

Chris Olave Yes 1st Round 

 

DK Metcalf- Yes 2nd Round

 

Justin Jefferson Yes 1st Round 

Davonta  Smith - Yes 1st Round 

DeAndre Hopkins- Yes 1st Round

Garrett Wilson- Yes 1st Round

 

Chris Godwin- No 3rd Round

Calvin Ridley- No 1st Round

 

Adam Theilen- No Undrafted 

 

Jaylen Waddle- Yes 1st Round

 

Terry McLaurin- Yes 3rd round 

 

There are actually 28 WRs who had 1,000 yard season: 

 

Out of those 28, 21 of 28 achieved 1,000 yards in their first two years(75%) basically proving if your good your most likely going to prove it in your first two years

 

Out of those 28, 13 went in the first much like you said which is 36.4 % not exactly what I would call impressive for something to back up needing a 1st round WR

 

Out of those 13 WRs that went in the 1st round

 

Lamb went 17th, DJ Moore 24th, Aiyuk 25th, Evans 7th overall, Cooper 4th overall, Chase 5th overall, Olave 11th overall, Jefferson 22nd overall, Smith 10th overall, Hopkins 27th overall, Wilson 10th overall, Ridley 26th overall, Waddle 6th overall

 

7 out of the 13 went in the top 15 or 53%.

 

The only WRs that wouldn’t have cost a ton for a trade up were Aiyuk, Hopkins, Ridley, Jefferson, Moore. 38%. 
 

Aiyuk and Ridley didn’t achieve 1,000 yards in their first two years. 
 

The only other WR on this list that was drafted near the 28th pick that had 1,000 yards was Michael Pittman at 34th. Every other WR was drafted 50 or later that went in the 2nd round 

 

6 out of 28 1,000 yard WRs went in trade up range or slightly after the Bills pick at 28  or 21%

 

If anything, statistically speaking, based on your own data, The Bills have a 21% chance of getting a 1,000 yard WR based on 2023 1,000 yard WRs. 
 

Just to be fair for the last statistic I didn’t include most 2nd rounders because they went before pick 60 besides DK Metcalf who went 64th. So this excludes Aj Brown, George Pickens, and Devante Adams. 
 

10 of the 28 guys were drafted after pick 60 or 35%
 

Now for your last point of it depends who your QB is:  Of course it does to an extent but not entirely. 

 

Hill, Waddle, St Brown, Lamb, Nacua, Brown, Collins, Allen, Chase, Diggs, Smith, Ridley, Aiyuk, Jefferson imo and it’s my opinion got good to great QB play most of the year. 

 

McLaurin, Theilen, Evans, Godwin, Wilson, Adams, Hopkins, Pittman, Pittman, Olave, Pickens, Metcalf received inconsistent play imo again

You’re talking to the wrong guy again brother. I’m not the one who said I can snap my finger and get a 1,000 yard WR by year 2 he did. Nor have I said we’ll get a star at any position. He’s the one who brought up 1,000 yard WRs. Watson doesn’t fit his criteria for his original argument so your point on Watson is null and void on this topic 

 

 

Don't confuse being a contrarian with teaching class.   Don't stall out there.   You have more potential than that because you care about the subject matter.  Think it thru.   That advice might enrage you but building a roster is no different than building a company......it should go strategy to system to process to procedure.     Ask yourself where you are on all of those and then argue from there.   Your strategy might not have anything to do with your franchise QB specifically(mine and others do).   That can be where you differ.   But at least you can argue from that platform instead of this time wasting procedure with @HappyDays.   You aren't making a point there.   Sorry.    

[HappyDays]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position. 

 

I'm at a point where I would still take the WR in this scenario, or at least trade down with someone that is eager to take the pass rusher or whatever position is sticking out as BPA, and then take a WR at the lower pick. I'm looking at it almost like a team that still needs a QB, not quite to the same level of course but the same idea - take a WR even if they're not quite the highest graded player on your board. The WR position is too important and we have invested less resources into it than probably every other team in the league over the past 5 years. In a draft class like this I really can't find any excuse to pass up on the opportunity.

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

His lack of production at Georgia supports the Samuel comparison.   

 

 

Don't confuse being a contrarian with teaching class.   Don't stall out there.   You have more potential than that because you care about the subject matter.  Think it thru.   That advice might enrage you but building a roster is no different than building a company......it should go strategy to system to process to procedure.     Ask yourself where you are on all of those and then argue from there.   Your strategy might not have anything to do with your franchise QB specifically(mine and others do).   That can be where you differ.   But at least you can argue from that platform instead of this time wasting procedure with @HappyDays.   You aren't making a point there.   Sorry.    

Guess what man I don’t give a damn what you think of me. I like how you guys always tag each other like some gang of long term know it alls like I didn’t already quote the guy to make him aware I’m responding to him. 

I’ve been on this board since the early 2000s just cause I don’t spend my life on here doesn’t mean my opinion is less than yours. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Guess what man I don’t give a damn what you think of me. I like how you guys always tag each other like some gang of long term know it alls like I didn’t already quote the guy to make him aware I’m responding to him. 

I’ve been on this board since the early 2000s just cause I don’t spend my life on here doesn’t mean my opinion is less than yours. 

 

 

I don't follow anyone.   I read each thread individually and take each argument separately.   And I never said you were new I am just saying that you are only being a contrarian but you think you are schooling people.   There isn't any depth to your argument here,  it's not illuminating at all.   You are clearly very interested in the draft, you should build on those thoughts instead of this.      

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't follow anyone.   I read each thread individually and take each argument separately.   And I never said you were new I am just saying that you are only being a contrarian but you think you are schooling people.   There isn't any depth to your argument here,  it's not illuminating at all.   You are clearly very interested in the draft, you should build on those thoughts instead of this.      

I have numerous times man in these threads talked about other WRs, other positions as possibility, other players and it is guys like you who are fighting having lengthy discussions about other players cause again if it’s not Thomas, Mitchell, or Legette it’s unacceptable. In your case you like Worthy too. 
 

Thats 4 players on this board that are acceptable picks at 28 for like 75% of this board. It gets tiring when you talk about someone else and people like you  come around staring nope terrible investment, doesn’t fit the roster and while you may seem incredibly intelligent right now what if one of those 4 players doesn’t get picked and even worse another WR gets picked. Then you and everyone else is gonna look like an idiot on this board. 
 

You want me to invest, I would encourage you sir to to open up your mind of possibilities beyond 4 guys as there is a much stronger likelihood of them not being picked than there is and be open to other peoples ideas. 
 

I take the arguments as they come as well. I have never once said I don’t want a WR in round 1 but I think people do have a valid point that you can get 2 WRs in this draft starting in round 2 and another in round 4 and still consider that a significant investment as you put it. Fair? 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I sure hope so,  opportunity is knocking and I’d like to think Beane is gonna open the door at 28, and invite in our next WR weapon. 

 

 

But sadly I am ready for the disappointment of yet another rotational D-line guy…for our ever so vaunted post season defense…,  

Many of the top WR in the league we’re not 1st round picks.

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I have numerous times man in these threads talked about other WRs, other positions as possibility, other players and it is guys like you who are fighting having lengthy discussions about other players cause again if it’s not Thomas, Mitchell, or Legette it’s unacceptable. In your case you like Worthy too. 
 

Thats 4 players on this board that are acceptable picks at 28 for like 75% of this board.

 

All of us have our preferences for which WR we want. For me it's Franklin, Coleman, or Legette in no particular order. But if it helps, I'm not as tied to the specific player as I am to the position. I just want a projected X WR. If we take Mitchell for example he isn't my preference but I would still be happy that we followed the right process and wait to see how he develops as a player.

[BADOLBILZ]

42 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I have numerous times man in these threads talked about other WRs, other positions as possibility, other players and it is guys like you who are fighting having lengthy discussions about other players cause again if it’s not Thomas, Mitchell, or Legette it’s unacceptable. In your case you like Worthy too. 
 

Thats 4 players on this board that are acceptable picks at 28 for like 75% of this board. It gets tiring when you talk about someone else and people like you  come around staring nope terrible investment, doesn’t fit the roster and while you may seem incredibly intelligent right now what if one of those 4 players doesn’t get picked and even worse another WR gets picked. Then you and everyone else is gonna look like an idiot on this board. 
 

You want me to invest, I would encourage you sir to to open up your mind of possibilities beyond 4 guys as there is a much stronger likelihood of them not being picked than there is and be open to other peoples ideas. 
 

I take the arguments as they come as well. I have never once said I don’t want a WR in round 1 but I think people do have a valid point that you can get 2 WRs in this draft starting in round 2 and another in round 4 and still consider that a significant investment as you put it. Fair? 

 

 

I'm not real interested in the appearance of "significant" investment at this point.   I want that to not even be a question.   It's long overdue and it's one of the best WR classes ever.    

 

So how many players do you expect the Bills to be strongly considering when they are on the clock at pick #28?

 

My answer is 3.    At most.   And that might be generous.    

 

The board might get to pick 21 and there might be only 1 player left that Beane values above a big trade back into round 2...........that's been his MO and that's why he trades up.

 

So I don't get your indignance with people only having a few players they really value as pick #28.    It's not realistic to expect an NFL team to have a lot of players graded equally at a certain point that late into round 1.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm at a point where I would still take the WR in this scenario, or at least trade down with someone that is eager to take the pass rusher or whatever position is sticking out as BPA, and then take a WR at the lower pick. I'm looking at it almost like a team that still needs a QB, not quite to the same level of course but the same idea - take a WR even if they're not quite the highest graded player on your board. The WR position is too important and we have invested less resources into it than probably every other team in the league over the past 5 years. In a draft class like this I really can't find any excuse to pass up on the opportunity.

 

It is every other team except Tampa. 

 

I would take an edge rusher though if one of the top tier talents in this class fell to us, because that will be a tier above any receiver available and I would never justify reaching down a tier for anything other than a Quarterback. The only way that happens is if Latu falls based on medicals and if that happens I am not sure the Bills would do that.... this regime has been quite risk adverse on medical flags in the early rounds of the draft. The edge pick they will make at #28 if they make one is Chop Robinson. I wouldn't do that. But I can see them really liking him. 

Edited March 27 by GunnerBill

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

OK so:

 

1) What do you EXPECT him to achieve in the next 2 seasons?

 

2) What do you think his ceiling is?

 

You are talking about what you anticipated of him in the past tense.   There WERE multiple people who insisted he could become as good as Stef Diggs.  Anytime a WR projected to go round 2 goes in round 5 there are a ton of people who will predict greatness for that player.

 

I'm just trying to clarify so that when his small sample size production turns into Cooper Kupp 2021 I can give you credit.    

 

For example,  when I promoted the Bills selecting him in round 1 of the 2014 draft I predicted Aaron Donald could get 10 sacks as a rookie, which was a crazy high bar for a rookie DT.  He got 9.  He fell short.......but also I didn't exactly predict that he WOULD get that.  I predicted he "could" get that.   That's why I don't use it as a key data point with that opinion.  

 

So now is your chance, shoot your shot on Khalil.

I predict that Shakir will be a solid pro that will average anywhere from 500-800 yards a year.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

I predict that Shakir will be a solid pro that will average anywhere from 500-800 yards a year.

and that's fine. the league is full of guys like Shakir and there are plenty of roster spots for good NFL caliber players like him

 

he's just not the kind of talent you build or make decisions around

[gonzo1105]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not real interested in the appearance of "significant" investment at this point.   I want that to not even be a question.   It's long overdue and it's one of the best WR classes ever.    

 

So how many players do you expect the Bills to be strongly considering when they are on the clock at pick #28?

 

My answer is 3.    At most.   And that might be generous.    

 

The board might get to pick 21 and there might be only 1 player left that Beane values above a big trade back into round 2...........that's been his MO and that's why he trades up.

 

So I don't get your indignance with people only having a few players they really value as pick #28.    It's not realistic to expect an NFL team to have a lot of players graded equally at a certain point that late into round 1.

 

 

 

 

So the answer to your question is no. 
 

The possibility of picks at 28 are 

 

Any WR with a possible late first early 2nd round grade

 

Mitchell, Worthy, Legette, McConkey, Wilson, Franklin

 

DTs: 

Murphy 

Newton

 

DE: 

Chop Robinson

Darius Robinson

Laiatu Latu who is going to fall further than people think

 

Safety: 

Cooper DeJean

 

Jackson Powers Johnson 

Zach Frazier

 

I also think while unlikely the depth of OT and CB that could happen where a player is graded above a WR and is too good to pass up but this will end up back to your original arguments of investment in the right positions. 
 

It’d be nice to be able to have conversations about other guys. 
 

I will continue to hang my hat on I literally picked Kincaid to the Bills last year in my last mock and got laughed at by people who thought it was a terrible investment since we already had Knox and his big contract. The way you talk you must have been absolutely furious about last years picks 

Edited March 27 by gonzo1105

[Matt_In_NH]

21 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Because he has hit on so many defensive picks esp. The DL and ignored giving our Franchise QB a 1st round talent at WR right?

 

But hey he is here to stay, so it is what it is.

I would like to see an unbiased analysis of Beanes draft picks vs others.  If you want to cherry pick guys who did or did not work out you can do that for every GM ever.  You have to be able to peel through the layers and compare to his peers to evaluate him fairly.  The ignoring his franchise QB think is ridiculous, this is not fantasy football.   How are Diggs and Kincaid on the Bills Roster?

[Dunkirk Donski]

f fully expect beane to slightly trade up for a WR he likes, similar to last year.

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I would like to see an unbiased analysis of Beanes draft picks vs others.  If you want to cherry pick guys who did or did not work out you can do that for every GM ever.  You have to be able to peel through the layers and compare to his peers to evaluate him fairly.  The ignoring his franchise QB think is ridiculous, this is not fantasy football.   How are Diggs and Kincaid on the Bills Roster?

I think I’m my unbiased opinion Beane has been really good at finding solid contributors in the draft at all levels and has done a great job on day 3 in particular which means the scouts have been doing great. 
 

I think my only problem with him is he hasn’t drafted enough difference makers or guys who have become truly elite 

[Mat68]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I would agree with you if we didn't already have an impressive arsenal of weapons for Josh between Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, and even Cook to throw to.  Like if Diggs had actually been traded (which he isn't going to be) and we needed badly to replace Josh's top weapon.  

 

And lets realistically look at who will be there at 28:  McConkey, Coleman, Franklin, Legette, Pearsall...possibly Mitchell and/or Worthy.  Those are widely seen as the next best 7 WRs on the board in no particular order after the big 4.  That group is all closely graded together...and the order in which they are ranked varies widely based on who you talk to.  So for a visual example...just gonna make up a numbers ranking system of 0.0 to 10.0 that Beane puts as a grade.  

 

What if a player at another position of need (say a DE) has 9.2 grade at 28 and the next best guy at that same position has a 7.9 grade.  Now the best WR left on the board has an 8.7 and of the 7 WR's listed above they are all tightly graded from 8.5 to 8.7 amongst themselves. 

 

Wouldn't you agree that it would be absolutely best to take the 9.2 player and then grab say even the 8.5 WR over reaching for say the 8.7 WR and being stuck with the 7.9 guy at the other position for our first 2 rounds?

 

Not only is reaching a bad draft strategy...but you exponentially compound that mistake when you reach in a draft that is rich at that position with guys will similar grades and potential that can be had a round or 2 later.  

 

That is my only point.  Don't pass up someone you have a much better grade on at another position of need to take a lesser WR, especially in a draft where you can get similar graded WR's a round or 2 later.  

Again, I do want a WR early...I am not advocating against that, only advocating against reaching 

I think its Wr or a DE they like falls to them.  Imo you have Verse, Latu, Turner, and Chop Robinson.  Those are the only guys with elite traits.  The other DEs are day 2 prospects. One of them is available and say the top 4 wrs are gone they take the higher or similar rated DE.  Those guys are gone they go Wr or possibly move back.  Beane will go elite traits and young rd 1 or move back.

[BADOLBILZ]

18 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

So the answer to your question is no. 
 

The possibility of picks at 28 are 

 

Any WR with a possible late first early 2nd round grade

 

Mitchell, Worthy, Legette, McConkey, Wilson, Franklin

 

DTs: 

Murphy 

Newton

 

DE: 

Chop Robinson

Darius Robinson

Laiatu Latu who is going to fall further than people think

 

Safety: 

Cooper DeJean

 

Jackson Powers Johnson 

Zach Frazier

 

I also think while unlikely the depth of OT and CB that could happen where a player is graded above a WR and is too good to pass up but this will end up back to your original arguments of investment in the right positions. 
 

It’d be nice to be able to have conversations about other guys. 
 

I will continue to hang my hat on I literally picked Kincaid to the Bills last year in my last mock and got laughed at by people who thought it was a terrible investment since we already had Knox and his big contract. The way you talk you must have been absolutely furious about last years picks 

 

 

So, to clarify, you think that Beane is going to have as many as 13 players he would be debating about selecting at pick #28?

 

While I will stop short of saying that's totally impossible.........it seems extremely unrealistic.    

 

Like 99% sure you would be wrong about that based on things you didn't predict..........like trading up for Dalton Kincaid.

 

Who did you have in the group other players than Kincaid that Beane might select last year before he did what he so often does and focused on one specific player when he got within a 4th round pick or so of trading up for?    Were there a dozen more last year as well?      

 

 

[gonzo1105]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So, to clarify, you think that Beane is going to have as many as 13 players he would be debating about selecting at pick #28?

 

While I will stop short of saying that's totally impossible.........it seems extremely unrealistic.    

 

Like 99% sure you would be wrong about that based on things you didn't predict..........like trading up for Dalton Kincaid.

 

Who did you have in the group other players than Kincaid that Beane might select last year before he did what he so often does and focused on one specific player when he got within a 4th round pick or so of trading up for?    Were there a dozen more last year as well?      

 

 

No solely for discussion what don’t you get. Out of the 13, some of them aren’t going to be there, some of them won’t be on the the Bills board or high enough  but guess what you and I don’t know how their board is and who is where. 
 

What you think isn’t relevant to their board. It’s worth discussing all possibilities because you and I don’t know man. How this is so damn hard for you to comprehend is astounding. Oh lord god forbid I want to discuss more than Xavier Legette day in and day out. 
 

As for who with Kincaid last year idk I’d have to go back and look at my notes. I know that OT was high on my board because of the uncertainty with Brown, his inconsistency and back issues, as well as WR but I projected the WRs to go either before the Bills pick which they did or I think I had a guy like them not loving Johnston 

 

Out of the 13 guys I expect Latu, Powers Johnson, Mitchell, Murphy, Newton, DeJean literally you commented on my last mock go look lol. That leaves 7 guys but out of those 13 it’s not out of the realm of possibility that any of the 13 are there at the Bills pick. 

Edited March 27 by gonzo1105