Final in depth Salary Cap update by the Cover 1 crew

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

im assuming the only time you watched Douglas play this year for the Bills was when he was playing injured against the Chiefs in the playoffs?
 

He played great during the season … he will be the first person they extend ..

I’ve seen him plenty. More importantly, I’ve seen enough CBs to know that age 30 is when you replace them rather than sign them to new contracts.  If he were a star, that would be one thing.  I’d still disagree with it, but I would understand.  Douglas isn’t a star, though.  He was a solid player who was the second best CB on the Packers who were happy to get a top 100 pick for him and his $9 million cap hit in 2024.  Guys like him grow on trees.  There’s no reason to give up a third round pick for him and then give him a new contract when you’ve literally got a 22 year old CB who you just traded up in the first round to get 18 months ago sitting on the bench.

[GASabresIUFan]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Maybe at age 27 Bates will be a better option than Morse at age 32.   That's often how it works.   But for $8M difference if it's close, it's enough.   I also like Anderson's potential(another OT kicked inside like Morse and Bates) and I even think maybe McGovern might be a better center option longer term if the Bills decide to go with a more physical left guard in 2025.   They aren't bereft of options at center like they are at RT behind Brown, for instance.

Maybe, but do you think that Beane, with so much to do to fix the Dline, Safety and WR, is going to make a huge change to the one area of his team that he doesn't need to alter? 

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, GASabresIUFan said:

I'm hoping he slips to the 80's.  I'm hoping the Bills trade down in the first to pick up an extra 3rd.  With that extra 3rd, and if we get lucky, Van Pran will be sitting there for us to take with the acquired pick.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp

 

It will take two trades to get into the 80s.  

1  - Buffalo trade 28 & 206 to Ari for 35 & 90

2 - Buffalo trade 90 & 162 to Cleveland for 85 & 228

 

Yes I can see that as a possibility…although Van Pran could be a lot of teams second C  , so it wouldn’t surprise if he goes even before 60…

 

We both know the Bills need a long term C preferably on a rookie deal sooner rather than later…

 

But I have WR, DE and DT higher  up the needs list in 2024 …

 

If you want to bring a guy in to learn a year behind Morse/ Bates for a year , then that’s a Day 3 luxury 

 

If you want to spend a Top 80 pick, then it should be on a player with at least some path to being a year 1 starter… 

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

I’ve seen him plenty. More importantly, I’ve seen enough CBs to know that age 30 is when you replace them rather than sign them to new contracts.  If he were a star, that would be one thing.  I’d still disagree with it, but I would understand.  Douglas isn’t a star, though.  He was a solid player who was the second best CB on the Packers who were happy to get a top 100 pick for him and his $9 million cap hit in 2024.  Guys like him grow on trees.  There’s no reason to give up a third round pick for him and then give him a new contract when you’ve literally got a 22 year old CB who you just traded up in the first round to get 18 months ago sitting on the bench.

If he was a star he would be getting a lot more than $8m a year…

 

Even at 30 years old, he is going to be the best CB on the roster going into the new season .. He was arguably one of their Top 5 players the second half of last season after he arrived … i would love for CB1 to be their No 1 pick instead … but you gotta live in reality …

[GASabresIUFan]

11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Yes I can see that as a possibility…although Van Pran could be a lot of teams second C  , so it wouldn’t surprise if he goes even before 60…

 

We both know the Bills need a long term C preferably on a rookie deal sooner rather than later…

 

But I have WR, DE and DT higher  up the needs list in 2024 …

 

If you want to bring a guy in to learn a year behind Morse/ Bates for a year , then that’s a Day 3 luxury 

 

If you want to spend a Top 80 pick, then it should be on a player with at least some path to being a year 1 starter… 

I think the needs at DT and Safety are going to be lessened by free agency.  I don't think Beane wants to head into the season with a rookie at D Jones' slot or in Hyde's slot, but you never know.  

 

The only rookie starter I see for the Bills next season is at WR2 unless a draft pick shines in camp at S or DT and supplants the signed FA.  From my standpoint, getting an Edge, DT, C, OT, and or S all could (should?) be early picks, but come after the WR2 in level of necessity.  Getting the vets as starters for a year or two in FA allows Beane the luxury of picking the BPA from those 5 positions instead of simply drafting for need.

[Aussie Joe]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I think the needs at DT and Safety are going to be lessened by free agency.  I don't think Beane wants to head into the season with a rookie at D Jones' slot or in Hyde's slot, but you never know.  

 

The only rookie starter I see for the Bills next season is at WR2 unless a draft pick shines in camp at S or DT and supplants the signed FA.  From my standpoint, getting an Edge, DT, C, OT, and or S all could (should?) be early picks, but come after the WR2 in level of necessity.  Getting the vets as starters for a year or two in FA allows Beane the luxury of picking the BPA from those 5 positions instead of simply drafting for need.

Lessened by guys on 1 year deals maybe … but eventually they gotta get WR, DT and DE in the draft … they got three guys signed there at the moment on the  D Line …

 

Im not worried about S enough to be spending a Top 100 pick there

Edited February 17 by Aussie Joe

[GASabresIUFan]

21 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Im not worried about S enough to be spending a Top 100 pick there

Really?  The only 2 on the roster are the aging (and slowing) Poyer and the resurrected Hamlin.  We need two safeties at a minimum.  A FA starter for a year or two and at least one from this draft to either supplant Poyer or the FA by 2025.  There 4 very talented safeties in this draft who will go in the top 75 in Bullock, Bullard, Kinchens, and Nubin.  The Bills need to grab one of them if they can.  

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, GASabresIUFan said:

Really?  The only 2 on the roster are the aging (and slowing) Poyer and the resurrected Hamlin.  We need two safeties at a minimum.  A FA starter for a year or two and at least one from this draft to either supplant Poyer or the FA by 2025.  There 4 very talented safeties in this draft who will go in the top 75 in Bullock, Bullard, Kinchens, and Nubin.  The Bills need to grab one of them if they can.  

This is the same argument I just made about the D line …we know they got several needs elsewhere as well and only two picks in the Top 75 … they can’t use those two picks everywhere … I put WR DE and DT over  Safety to utilise those picks 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Maybe, but do you think that Beane, with so much to do to fix the Dline, Safety and WR, is going to make a huge change to the one area of his team that he doesn't need to alter? 

 

Beane's tendency has been to try to retain EVERYONE.  He once even offered and gave Star Lotulelei and Vernon Butler pay cuts after they'd screwed him with poor effort in prior seasons.   He's been a sucker for pay cuts.   Which I think mostly just disincentive players to buy-in.   So that is the regard where I agree that I'm not certain he will move on from guys like Morse and White.

 

But I don't think going from Morse to Ryan Bates is a "huge" change.   Bates best position was long viewed as center and they paid him starting money in FA and he probably would have been the starting left guard last season had Torrence not fallen to their spot in round 2.   Not like they don't have a promising solution in place to replace the pretty average Morse(who was probably their worst or second worst starting OL last season).

 

And they need the cap space to address those other lesser stocked positions you mentioned.    Which is the larger point.

Edited February 17 by BADOLBILZ

[GASabresIUFan]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And they need the cap space to address those other lesser stocked positions you mentioned.    Which is the larger point.

You can accomplish the cap savings and keep both Morse and Bates by extending Morse with a void year or two and by restructuring Bates's deal.  Those two moves could save about 5-6 in cap and Beane retains his starter and his depth. 

 

As I said previously, I'd extend Morse, trade Bates, and draft Van Pran.

[Dr. Who]

47 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Really?  The only 2 on the roster are the aging (and slowing) Poyer and the resurrected Hamlin.  We need two safeties at a minimum.  A FA starter for a year or two and at least one from this draft to either supplant Poyer or the FA by 2025.  There 4 very talented safeties in this draft who will go in the top 75 in Bullock, Bullard, Kinchens, and Nubin.  The Bills need to grab one of them if they can.  

You're forgetting Cole Bishop. If they go WR and DT in the first two rounds, they could all be gone by #99. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

You can accomplish the cap savings and keep both Morse and Bates by extending Morse with a void year or two and by restructuring Bates's deal.  Those two moves could save about 5-6 in cap and Beane retains his starter and his depth. 

 

As I said previously, I'd extend Morse, trade Bates, and draft Van Pran.

 

 

I think the Cover 1 people have given some fans the impression that re-structuring contracts doesn't ALWAYS come at the expense of the future cap by implying that the Bills cap situation is just naturally going to get better.   

 

The Bills will have to work and make some tough decisions to make it better.    They weren't very forthright about that.   Thompsett knows better but as anyone who saw that video knows,  they are a very sentimental group.       

 

I'm not interested in guaranteeing Morse base salary by distributing it over void years and missing that opportunity to save $8M asap and move on.............Nor am I interested in doing extensions for Morse or Bates.   Ideally neither is on the roster by 2025 so I don't want to have another $10M+ in dead cap tied up in them in 2025.

 

I'm done with running it back with all of these guys that were 6-5 at midseason 2 of the past 3 seasons and looked tired in the playoffs in each of the past 3.

 

Time for a re-tool.   And a good draft year to have playing time opportunities available instead of all being blocked by over-priced vets.

 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think the Cover 1 people have given some fans the impression that re-structuring contracts doesn't ALWAYS come at the expense of the future cap by implying that the Bills cap situation is just naturally going to get better.   

 

The Bills will have to work and make some tough decisions to make it better.    They weren't very forthright about that.   Thompsett knows better but as anyone who saw that video knows,  they are a very sentimental group.       

 

I'm not interested in guaranteeing Morse base salary by distributing it over void years and missing that opportunity to save $8M asap and move on.............Nor am I interested in doing extensions for Morse or Bates.   Ideally neither is on the roster by 2025 so I don't want to have another $10M+ in dead cap tied up in them in 2025.

 

I'm done with running it back with all of these guys that were 6-5 at midseason 2 of the past 3 seasons and looked tired in the playoffs in each of the past 3.

 

Time for a re-tool.   And a good draft year to have playing time opportunities available instead of all being blocked by over-priced vets.

 

I think Alec Anderson ought to be a real consideration at C.

[Coach Tuesday]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think the Cover 1 people have given some fans the impression that re-structuring contracts doesn't ALWAYS come at the expense of the future cap by implying that the Bills cap situation is just naturally going to get better.   

 

The Bills will have to work and make some tough decisions to make it better.    They weren't very forthright about that.   Thompsett knows better but as anyone who saw that video knows,  they are a very sentimental group.       

 

I'm not interested in guaranteeing Morse base salary by distributing it over void years and missing that opportunity to save $8M asap and move on.............Nor am I interested in doing extensions for Morse or Bates.   Ideally neither is on the roster by 2025 so I don't want to have another $10M+ in dead cap tied up in them in 2025.

 

I'm done with running it back with all of these guys that were 6-5 at midseason 2 of the past 3 seasons and looked tired in the playoffs in each of the past 3.

 

Time for a re-tool.   And a good draft year to have playing time opportunities available instead of all being blocked by over-priced vets.

 

I keep thinking about how fun it would be to find like 3 young WRs, rookies or younger FAs, who can come in as a group and develop together with Josh for the next 3-5 years.  Sort of like what the Packers have done.  Find some cheap, fast talent on offense and let them grow together.

[billsfan_34]

19 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Your last sentence is an interesting point.  I go back and forth on this.  On the one hand, in 2021 after Tre was injured, we won 4 games with Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson playing CB and the two we lost (the wind tunnel NE game and the OT loss to Tampa) were arguably more gaps in run D than coverage.  One could make an argument that McD's defense has been able to plug-n-play CBs and not miss a beat (Dane Jackson, Christian Benford, etc). 

Some people have said that we run a very CB friendly scheme.

 

But then I have to ask whether having a 2020/early 2021 level Tre White would have made a difference in the 13 second game or in this year's playoff loss to KC where we were starting a hampered Rasul Douglas and Dane Jackson at CB.  L'Jairus Sneed has become a true shutdown corner and McDuffie is also high grade and that clearly made a difference in all KC's playoff games this season and the Championship.  So clearly at some point and against the best teams, the quality of the DBs does make a difference.

 

To your first point: after an Achilles tear, it's not Tre's mind I'm so worried about.  It's objectively a hard injury to return from.  One study says 57% RTP, with a decrease in performance noted especially for defensive players.  That was 2010 to 2016, so medicine and rehab do improve all the time and hopefully it's better now.  Apparently there are all sorts of objective metrics that decrease (the downward force the athlete can exert to jump or plant or change direction for example.

 

 

Thanks for the kind words, I'm glad you found it useful.

 

It would not shock me if the Bills cut Tre because they assess him as not being able to return at a high level.  It would not shock me if they kept him, either.

I think there's a significant chance of either, and only the people working with Tre on his rehab really know.

For sure! This one is tough to call 😊

23 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

Never happen.  Players typically take injury settlements when they were placed on IR, but have now fully recovered and can then get money from the team giving them the settlement, and then basically double dip and sign with another team.  In White's case there is effectively no IR list in the off season and he wouldn't be ready to play right now anyway.  For those reasons, can't see the injury settlement coming into play here unless he's still not ready to go in Sept, but was healthy by say November and won't happen till then either.

Intersting - seems we have fewer options 😢

[ALF]

Bills have 22 FA and still -$51.8M cap

[SCBills]

Rasul Douglas X timeline is… interesting. 

[billsfan_34]

On 2/16/2024 at 9:12 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Because until he can pass a physical he can't be cut.  So come March 11th or whatever the exact day is, all his bonuses kick in and the Bills are on the hook for that, but they also can't cut him as I stated unless he can a pass a physical which is not likely.  So why would White agree to a pay cut unless he's somehow rewarded? 

 

The Bills can cut him later on, but by then they would have had to have cut a couple other players to get under the cap in March.  And for White he then got the money from the Bills in March and can then sign later on with another team.

 

So put all these things together, I'd say White can dictate terms pretty well.

Paycut not cut…two different things. 

[GunnerBill]

I just watched some of the video and they say a lot of things that are not actually correct. I question whether they all understand the cap as well as they give the impression they do. 

 

For example the Diggs conversation. They say "well if we traded him after June 1 this year sure it opens up $19m in 2024 space but it eats up $22m of our $31m of current cap space for 2025. WRONG. The $31m already accounts for $9m of what would be the $22m total dead money because that is guaranteed money that accounts on the cap in 2025 whatever happens. The additonal $13m would accelerate to the 2025 cap if we traded him post 1 June this year. I don't think the difference affects the decision around whether you trade him or not particularly. But it is just an example of where these guys speak with authority and fans are taking them as gospel and not everything they are saying is accurate. There were a couple of others in the 25 mins I listened to but that one stood out. They consistently make the mistake of thinking all dead cap money is new money you are adding onto cap hits and some of that money is already baked in. 

[PBF81]

On 2/16/2024 at 3:55 PM, julian said:

Run his contract decisions by his wife ? lol my goodness 

 

Tells his agent to call his wife.

 

Who knows, maybe his agent is his wife.