A 4th down throw into the EZ is not a suitable substitute for a punt

[transient]

Thanks, TBD. This thread made me angry at Cam Lewis again.

[RiotAct]

Just now, transient said:

Thanks, TBD. This thread made me angry at Cam Lewis again.

A date which will live in infamy!!!

[K-9]

18 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

It was just a poor throw, poor decision

 

But it didn’t cost us

Actually, it did cost us. Miami scored on the ensuing drive after the touchback.

[blacklabel]

They would've had 1st and 10 from their own 45 on a throw-away...instead they get the ball either way but now start from their 20. I wasn't really mad at that pick TBH. 

[AKC]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

If you watch the Warner video, the first option was Kincaid, and he was wide open for the first. It was an easy play and schemed perfectly. Josh saw that he had Diggs outside, though, and got greedy. 

Yeah, Shakir has Kincaid's defender screened out. Perfect play setup, execution is working perfectly. First down with almost any kind of throw and a catch. That  began the frustration with the play in real time- Josh blows the first down and then makes a bad throw under duress, then the defender does something stupid. I don't know if it was Collinsworth who said "It's as good as a punt" and then the other reiterated that. All I could think was how dumb it all was- then all week I turn on game reviews and they are saying the same- stupid- thing. I'm not one of the "hate Collinsworth" flagbearers but I do understand how he's easy to tune out. Unlike Romo who had to be told (after he started getting a body of broadcast work product out there) to dummy it down, no one ever had to ask Collinsworth.

[NewEra]

22 hours ago, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

[Doc]

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

Actually, it did cost us. Miami scored on the ensuing drive after the touchback.

 

It was an 80-yard drive.

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

Actually, it did cost us. Miami scored on the ensuing drive after the touchback.

I meant that it didn’t cost us the game

[K-9]

32 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

It was an 80-yard drive.

I understand all that and I agree it was on the defense to stop them. But it was an extra possession for Miami and it’s still considered “points off turnovers” just as it would be if the Phins scored on an 80 yard play on their first play from scrimmage after the touchback.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I understand all that and I agree it was on the defense to stop them. But it was an extra possession for Miami and it’s still considered “points off turnovers” just as it would be if the Phins scored on an 80 yard play on their first play from scrimmage after the touchback.

 

But if the DB knocks the ball down and it's an incompletion...they still get the extra possession and it's 15 yards upfield. 

[Orlando Tim]

I actually don't understand the point of the OP, does he mean Josh intentionally threw the pick? Does he mean the call from McD was not appropriate? Or is he upset that the Dolphins got the ball at the 20 vs the 35? Truly an odd post because the play clearly did not go as planned and Josh just tried to make any play he could rather than just giving the ball back. 

[QLBillsFan]

On 1/11/2024 at 5:35 PM, Success said:

We had already decided not to punt.

 

Exactly, then as the play developed JA  made the most of what was available. If Gabe doesn’t trip he has a shot at the ball. You can argue for a better play call and execution. But once it’s falling apart I don’t blame Josh for trying. 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/12/2024 at 10:29 AM, AKC said:

We’ve now heard it said many times that a 4th down play with a throw and pick in the end zone is “just like a punt”. This contradicts every coach who has taught his DBs to situationally knock the ball to the ground on 4th if there’s no clear lane to return past the 20. Just this past Sunday Allen throws a 4th down pick to DaShon Elliot in the EZ. For sake of example I’d use another division team- if Elliot had cost a Belichick team 15 yards with a blunder like that he’d probably be sitting for the rest of the game. The reality is you can’t count on the other side to be stupid. A punt in the same situation could easily yield an inside the 10 yard line starting point versus the 20 the Fish got on this play- a play they could have had the ball at the 35 if Elliot played it right.    

 

 

Yup, good point. On some small percentage of those long throws the DB will be able to run it back past the LOS resulting in a net gain from the play for the defense. Overall, though, it's better to knock it down.

 

But like it or not, DBs and football players generally know that stats affect life. Stats affect contract negotiations, Pro Bowl selections, public perception, etc. 

 

Every once in a while you still see guys knocking it down on fourth down with no attempt at an INT. I really respect the players I see make that play. But it's getting rarer.

 

 

10 hours ago, transient said:

Thanks, TBD. This thread made me angry at Cam Lewis again.

 

Thank you too!! Hadn't thought of that till now. Jeez, that play made me furious.

Edited January 13 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, two things about this:

 

First, as good as a punt is ONLY said when there actually WAS an interception.  No one says it on an incompletion.   

 

Second, a fourth down throw into the end zone has a significant upside - a touchdown.   There's a much greater possible reward on the throw than the punt. 

 

 

I greatly agree with both of your points here, but I would respectfully add this:

 

Third, as it was 4th and two, a completed pass of two yards or more would have been a vastly better outcome.

 

People are treating this as a one or the other scenario. A short completion would have continued the drive. It's easy to forget that this wasn't fourth and long. They only had to make two yards. And the All-22 shows very clearly that this should have been a first down for the Bills.

 

And Josh's first look on this play (you can see his head move, it's clear) is to Kincaid going towards the left sideline on a rub route. And the rub works perfectly, Kincaid ends up open by three or four yards with a very easy route to get the two yards. 

 

That's where he should have gone. That was the failure of that play, making the wrong choice on where to go. While he is still looking at Kincaid, the picture on the play is a bit complicated, but it is unfolding exactly as Brady must have wished, Kincaid's man is running directly into Shakir's pick, and Shakir's guy is bumping him, so it's a two-man pick rather than just one-man. The set-up is absolutely perfect.

 

It's Josh's first look, the play is working exactly as it should and looks like a very easy throw with a very high chance of getting the first down. And Josh comes off it almost immediately. He has no pressure on him not just up to where it looks good, but right through to where Kincaid is obviously open. Dawkins is being bull-rushed toward him, but sinks down and stops the guy cold.

 

Maybe a half-step to the right, and the pocket was going to stand up all day. Instead Josh takes off right, eventually allowing the LB who was mirroring Josh to run around the pocket and close on Josh to the side after he gets towards the numbers.

 

More, after Shakir is stoned executing his rub, he breaks right and runs across the middle about a yard beyond the first down. He's not wildly open, but he has a yard or a yard and a half on his guy. If Josh had stayed in the pocket - still a clear pocket - this is an easy completion. But he was already high-tailing it towards the sideline.

 

This appears to have been Josh playing hero ball on a play that should have worked, a play that provided one excellent opportunity within the framework of the play, and another that was maybe not excellent but still plenty good.

 

That should have been what happened. This should have been a first down, with the drive continuing.

 

 

4 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Exactly, then as the play developed JA  made the most of what was available. If Gabe doesn’t trip he has a shot at the ball. You can argue for a better play call and execution. But once it’s falling apart I don’t blame Josh for trying. 

 

 

Again, he didn't make the most of what was available. The opportunity for a first down was right there.

 

It wasn't falling apart till he gave up his first and best two options for converting this to a first down.

 

 

Edited January 13 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I greatly agree with both of your points here, but I would respectfully add this:

 

Third, as it was 4th and two, a completed pass of two yards or more would have been a vastly better outcome.

 

People are treating this as a one or the other scenario. A short completion would have continued the drive. It's easy to forget that this wasn't fourth and long. They only had to make two yards. And the All-22 shows very clearly that this should have been a first down for the Bills.

 

And Josh's first look on this play (you can see his head move, it's clear) is to Kincaid going towards the left sideline on a rub route. And the rub works perfectly, Kincaid ends up open by three or four yards with a very easy route to get the two yards. 

 

That's where he should have gone. That was the failure of that play, making the wrong choice on where to go. While he is still looking at Kincaid, the picture on the play is a bit complicated, but it is unfolding exactly as Brady must have wished, Kincaid's man is running directly into Shakir's pick, and Shakir's guy is bumping him, so it's a two-man pick rather than just one-man. The set-up is absolutely perfect.

 

It's Josh's first look, the play is working exactly as it should and looks like a very easy throw with a very high chance of getting the first down. And Josh comes off it almost immediately. He has no pressure on him not just up to where it looks good, but right through to where Kincaid is obviously open. Dawkins is being bull-rushed toward him, but sinks down and stops the guy cold.

 

Maybe a half-step to the right, and the pocket was going to stand up all day. Instead Josh takes off right, eventually allowing the LB who was mirroring Josh to run around the pocket and close on Josh to the side after he gets towards the numbers.

 

More, after Shakir is stoned executing his rub, he breaks right and runs across the middle about a yard beyond the first down. He's not wildly open, but he has a yard or a yard and a half on his guy. If Josh had stayed in the pocket - still a clear pocket - this is an easy completion. But he was already high-tailing it towards the sideline.

 

This appears to have been Josh playing hero ball on a play that should have worked, a play that provided one excellent opportunity within the framework of the play, and another that was maybe not excellent but still plenty good.

 

That should have been what happened. This should have been a first down, with the drive continuing.

 

 

 

 

Again, he didn't make the most of what was available. The opportunity for a first down was right there.

 

It wasn't falling apart till he gave up his first and best two options for converting this to a first down.

 

 

Thurm 

 

I haven't watched he'd the all 22 but completely accept your analysis and others that Josh had Kincaid for the first down.  If I had to guess, he saw and misread something that made him uncomfortable and decided to go away from that throw.  

 

You're right, what I said is correct only once he's closing in on the sideline and has limited options.

 

Early this season I got grief around here because I kept saying Josh has to learn to take the short gain high probability throw rather than the 50 50 throw downfield.  It's a west coast concept - make every play a positive play, which is always better than a loss, an inompletion, or a turnover.  Positive play, every down. Josh was doing that in the big wins early in the season, and he's regressed to the way he likes to play.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 1/11/2024 at 9:17 PM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We should have kicked the GD FG

You counting on bass to make it this year?

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup, good point. On some small percentage of those long throws the DB will be able to run it back past the LOS resulting in a net gain from the play for the defense. Overall, though, it's better to knock it down.

 

But like it or not, DBs and football players generally know that stats affect life. Stats affect contract negotiations, Pro Bowl selections, public perception, etc. 

 

Every once in a while you still see guys knocking it down on fourth down with no attempt at an INT. I really respect the players I see make that play. 

I've thought about this before, and I don't thing you guys are right about this.  Players do what they're coached to do and don't make decisions on the field based on their contracts.  

 

I mentioned Taron Johnson bringing it out against the Ravens.  The DB took it out after Josh's other int Sunday.  DBs do it a lot.  Why not take the touchback?

 

I think the modern thinking is offenses aren't taught to defend against punt returns, so coaches see INT returns as big play opportunities.  That's why we see many guys go for the interception 4th down and on any down take INTs out of the end zone. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I've thought about this before, and I don't thing you guys are right about this.  Players do what they're coached to do and don't make decisions on the field based on their contracts.  

 

I mentioned Taron Johnson bringing it out against the Ravens.  The DB took it out after Josh's other int Sunday.  DBs do it a lot.  Why not take the touchback?

 

I think the modern thinking is offenses aren't taught to defend against punt returns, so coaches see INT returns as big play opportunities.  That's why we see many guys go for the interception 4th down and on any down take INTs out of the end zone. 

 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this, then.

 

I mean, of course they don't go through a long chain of thought about INTs to glory to stats to contracts. Not enough time. But we consistently see guys who make correct judgment calls in complex situations a great majority of the time making this same bad call, again and again. It's mis-performed far more often than not.

 

They're taught to knock it down on fourth down. In the old days before the huge contracts this was almost never screwed up. These days it's almost never NOT screwed up.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if their agents don't tell them (quietly, in confidence) to make the INT in this circumstance. The memory of that one play won't last all that long, but the extra INT on their stats will last past their final contract negotiation and on into their autograph-signing show attendance days after they're retired.

 

And I think it's pretty clear they're not taught to run them back. If they were, we'd know it. It's not like we don't mostly know what the analytics guys are telling the coaches. It's not a secret. They're taught to knock these down. In the rare case they can be sure they've got a chance at a runback nobody minds a bit if they make the play but it's almost never possible for them to look back upfield until the INT is already made, unless they're running directly towards the QB in order to make the INT. Even then they generally are focusing on the ball to have the best shot at getting there at the right moment and at the exact right spot.

 

The Taron Johnson play was a bit different because it wasn't fourth down so he absolutely should have made the INT. It was third and goal and making the INT at the very least prevents three points for Baltimore. You appear to have been talking more about the decision to take it out of the end zone, but making that decision also was a bit easier than it at first looked. 

 

 

Watch this from the 0:44 mark onwards. At that point, the first replay has a beautiful end zone view. When he makes that INT, he's moving to the side but also backwards. He jumps, makes the catch, lands on the back leg and takes three or four super-quick steps backwards stopping his backwards momentum. At the same time, when he makes the catch, his head is pointed straight upfield and he can start processing immediately, and it's clear from the first instant that if he can get past the Raven who's about three steps away from him, Andrews, the intended receiver, that the whole right side of the field is absolutely empty. And Milano cuts right in front of Taron to block that one guy. 

 

Watch it again. It's perfectly set up for Taron to take one quick look and know that he has a sensational chance at going a long way.

 

Agreed, though, that the Miami interceptor probably should not have taken it out. That was a mistake.

 

 

Edited January 13 by Thurman#1

[billsrul120]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I greatly agree with both of your points here, but I would respectfully add this:

 

Third, as it was 4th and two, a completed pass of two yards or more would have been a vastly better outcome.

 

People are treating this as a one or the other scenario. A short completion would have continued the drive. It's easy to forget that this wasn't fourth and long. They only had to make two yards. And the All-22 shows very clearly that this should have been a first down for the Bills.

 

And Josh's first look on this play (you can see his head move, it's clear) is to Kincaid going towards the left sideline on a rub route. And the rub works perfectly, Kincaid ends up open by three or four yards with a very easy route to get the two yards. 

 

That's where he should have gone. That was the failure of that play, making the wrong choice on where to go. While he is still looking at Kincaid, the picture on the play is a bit complicated, but it is unfolding exactly as Brady must have wished, Kincaid's man is running directly into Shakir's pick, and Shakir's guy is bumping him, so it's a two-man pick rather than just one-man. The set-up is absolutely perfect.

 

It's Josh's first look, the play is working exactly as it should and looks like a very easy throw with a very high chance of getting the first down. And Josh comes off it almost immediately. He has no pressure on him not just up to where it looks good, but right through to where Kincaid is obviously open. Dawkins is being bull-rushed toward him, but sinks down and stops the guy cold.

 

Maybe a half-step to the right, and the pocket was going to stand up all day. Instead Josh takes off right, eventually allowing the LB who was mirroring Josh to run around the pocket and close on Josh to the side after he gets towards the numbers.

 

More, after Shakir is stoned executing his rub, he breaks right and runs across the middle about a yard beyond the first down. He's not wildly open, but he has a yard or a yard and a half on his guy. If Josh had stayed in the pocket - still a clear pocket - this is an easy completion. But he was already high-tailing it towards the sideline.

 

This appears to have been Josh playing hero ball on a play that should have worked, a play that provided one excellent opportunity within the framework of the play, and another that was maybe not excellent but still plenty good.

 

That should have been what happened. This should have been a first down, with the drive continuing.

 

 

 

 

Again, he didn't make the most of what was available. The opportunity for a first down was right there.

 

It wasn't falling apart till he gave up his first and best two options for converting this to a first down.

 

 

This is all valid. 
 

The narrative is that Josh has a turnover problem and it’s funny how if he had dirted that ball it wouldn’t be talked about as much. Instead he throws a pick in the end zone which lost Miami yards.  I would rank outcomes as:

 

1. Allen gets at least the 1st down

2. That pick (or one resulting in Miami with the ball at the 20 or less)

3. Any other outcome

 

We got the 2nd option here and it’s just piling on Allen for turnovers

Edited January 13 by billsrul120

[Simon]

14 hours ago, AKC said:

Yeah, Shakir has Kincaid's defender screened out. Perfect play setup, execution is working perfectly. First down with almost any kind of throw and a catch. That  began the frustration with the play in real time- Josh blows the first down

 

I remain unconvinced that the throw to Kincaid would have resulted in a first down if Allen goes to him immediately.

That 'backer didn't get caught up in the wash until Allen had already come off the read; he looks like he can close Kincaid immediately at the point when Allen is still going through that part of his progression. Maybe if he sticks with that read longer the first down was there, but then we're approaching the point of how long is too long.

I don't see it as cut and dry either way, just that there is room for debate.