Bills Cap Breakdown by Greg Tompsett

[Punching Bag]

8 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So many fans don’t understand age catches up quickly. If you restructure Diggs you’re locked in until age 33+. Not many WRs produce at that age.
 

Either keep him on his current structure for a year so he can groom his replacement we draft this year or move on completely in the offseason.

Restructing 30+ year old non qbs is bad for business.

 

 

There are some non-QB players who have played well past 30 including linemen, defense line and kickers.  Each one needs to be evaluate critically.

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Extending isn't a fix-all. People seem to think it is (because it creates a year or two of cap relief followed by crushing cap burden) but it just creates a new contract with even more money (current market rates). For example, the Chiefs extended Mahomes a couple months ago to create cap space for 2023, but it made $240M in cap due over the next 4 years. Which will then have to be restructured, creating $320M in cap burden, but they have space to push it because he has a 12 year contract.

Fans seem to have this idea that you can just extend and "poof" problem fixed .. if that were the case every team would give gargantuan contracts to free agents to get them to the city and then constantly restructure them until they retire. Just not how it works.

How did the Saints sign Derek Carr in the offeseason to a franchise QB contract when they were supposed to be $100M over the cap.

[Einstein]

Just now, FireChans said:

How did the Saints sign Derek Carr in the offeseason to a franchise QB contract when they were supposed to be $100M over the cap.

 

They pushed $110M into the future (aka, it will be due soon) and they got their all-pro retiring QB to not take the $25M he was due. 

 

They didn’t fix the problem. They delayed it. And got a gift from Brees.

[BarleyNY]

10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap.

 

Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy.

 

Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year.

 

 

He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options

 

 

As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M...

 

No Brainers - Cap Saved

Restructure Josh - $23M

Restructure Diggs - $13M

Restructure Ed - $3M

Release Hines - $5M

Release Harty - $4M

Total - $48M

Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER.

 

Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings

Extend Dawkins - $7M

Extend Douglas - $6M

Extend Johnson - $5M

Release Siran Neal - $3M

Release Sam Martin - $1M

Restructure McGovern - $3M

With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER

 

Painful but Possible - Cap Savings

Release Poyer - $5.5M

Release Tre - $6M

Bills now $56M UNDER

 

Prefer Not - Cap Savings

Restructure Milano - $2.5M

Restructure Knox - $6M

Trade Elam - $165k

Release Bates - $1.5M

Release Morse - $5.5M

Bills now $72M UNDER

 

I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth.

 

 

 

The cap is not a myth, it’s just that most people do t understand how it works. Many just look at the bottom line number for next season and nothing else so their understanding is very incomplete. 

 

I think it is worth looking a little deeper into Tompsett’s work. Let’s take the $56M under point. The Bills would have 33 players under contract - 9 of whom play on the OL. Our roster would be:

 

QB -Allen

RB - Cook

FB - Gilliam

WR - Diggs, Shakir, Shorter

TE - Knox, Kincaid, Davidson

OT - Dawkins, Brown, Doyle, Van Demark, Anderson

OG - McGovern, Torrence, Bates

C - Morse

 

DE - Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan

DT - Oliver 

LB - Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector

CB - Douglas, Elam, Benford, Johnson

S - Hamlin

K - Bass

P -

LS - Ferguson

 

There is a lot of work to be done there to field a competitive team. Even with kicking the bigger cap hits down the road on the bigger FA signings we will have to spend wisely and get at least a little lucky. 

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Right and every bit of money restructured is immediately paid.

 

Every time Allen is restructured to the tune of $20+ million, his cap hit the following seasons balloon. when you have a very long contract, like Mahomes, this is easy peasy. That’s why Veach brags about Mahomes 12 year deal.

 

But Allen’s deal is half as long. Which is going to become a problem. He is worth every penny - don’t get me wrong - but it’s still something that will have to be accounted for.

 

Yea but they will extend Josh. And Mahomes will get a new deal or a chunk of new money after this year despite being tied up for longer. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Release Morse... definitely!! Trading Diggs....out of the question

So you want to keep him until the bitter end? I don’t think that’s smart. 

[Mango]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I have been saying this.  Just a few years ago the saints were 100 mill over the cap and got under.

He isn't addressing a post June 1st cut of Von.  No way Von can stay.

Getting under and managing the cap well are two different things.

 

New Orleans is projected to be $87M over the cap for 2024. They’re continuously kicking the can down the road and they still suck. They’ve been in this loop of trying to keep the party going with old players and expensive contracts forever. For me NO is a great case study on what not to do. 
 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2024/

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So you want to keep him until the bitter end? I don’t think that’s smart. 

 

Yes, he deserves to retire as a Bill, and there's nothing bitter about it.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yes, he deserves to retire as a Bill, and there's nothing bitter about it.

I still wouldn’t restructure his contract this offseason. It’s just bad business restructuring 30+ year old deal. 

[Einstein]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but they will extend Josh. And Mahomes will get a new deal or a chunk of new money after this year despite being tied up for longer. 

What happens to prorated guaranteed money from a previous contract with an extension? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

31 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

There are some non-QB players who have played well past 30 including linemen, defense line and kickers.  Each one needs to be evaluate critically.

We have to replace Diggs with a cheaper option soon. It’s what happens. Josh will have multiple WR1’s over his career. I don’t want to have a $20+ million WR at age 32-33 as our WR1.

You can’t do business with your heart.

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Marcus Aurelius]

Watched it. Really thorough analysis.

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I still wouldn’t restructure his contract this offseason. It’s just bad business restructuring 30+ year old deal. 

 

I dont disagree with that.

 

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We have to replace Diggs with a cheaper option soon. It’s what happens. Josh will have multiple WR1’s over his career. I don’t want to have a $20+ million WR at age 32-33 as our WR1.

You can’t do business with your heart.

 

 

That is why it's crucial to draft our next WR1 in this draft. Then we have a 1WR on a cheap rookie deal throughout the 4 years left on Diggs' contract. Then you are paying a total of about $30M for TWO 1WRs.

 

Bonus if we snag a WR in the 1st and have that 5th year option as a cheap year the year Diggs is gone.

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Extending isn't a fix-all. People seem to think it is (because it creates a year or two of cap relief followed by crushing cap burden) but it just creates a new contract with even more money (current market rates). For example, the Chiefs extended Mahomes a couple months ago to create cap space for 2023, but it made $240M in cap due over the next 4 years. Which will then have to be restructured, creating $320M in cap burden, but they have space to push it because he has a 12 year contract.

Fans seem to have this idea that you can just extend and "poof" problem fixed .. if that were the case every team would give gargantuan contracts to free agents to get them to the city and then constantly restructure them until they retire. Just not how it works.

Beane is fairly smart working the cap. I'm sure he'll add enough years and enough $$$ to where the ramifications aren't detrimental to the team's long term plans.  

[billieve420]

At some point team will have to bite the bullet and move on from some of these aging players. If they miss the playoffs I would start this offseason and go for a mini rebuild while trying to field competitive team. I think this group had their shot at the Super Bowl and may have missed their window.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

What happens to prorated guaranteed money from a previous contract with an extension? 

 

You can restructure it and spread it on the new deal. You have to account for it. But so long as there is a way to kick it you can kick it down the extension. 

[hondo in seattle]

If the cap was a myth, I think Pegula would have dumped a bunch of money into the Bills bank account and let Beane go on a shopping spree that would have included better offensive linemen, receivers, DBs, etc.  The reason we don't have the best roster in the NFL is because Beane does have a cap and doesn't manage it quite as well as some other GMs. 

 

Restructuring is kicking the can down the road.  It solves short-term problems but becomes problematic later.  

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

If the cap was a myth, I think Pegula would have dumped a bunch of money into the Bills bank account and let Beane go on a shopping spree that would have included better offensive linemen, receivers, DBs, etc.  The reason we don't have the best roster in the NFL is because Beane does have a cap and doesn't manage it quite as well as some other GMs. 

 

Restructuring is kicking the can down the road.  It solves short-term problems but becomes problematic later.  

 

Restructuring IS Pegula dumping a bunch of money into the bank account. When you restructure and convert base salary to guaranteed money, the owner has to cut a check for that guaranteed amount at that time. It doesnt come out of the normal cap bucket paid for by revenue. Every restructure we pull IS Pegula dumping cash into the team so Beane can go sign other players.

 

 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Restructuring IS Pegula dumping a bunch of money into the bank account. When you restructure and convert base salary to guaranteed money, the owner has to cut a check for that guaranteed amount at that time. It doesnt come out of the normal cap bucket paid for by revenue. Every restructure we pull IS Pegula dumping cash into the team so Beane can go sign other players.

 

 

 

His point was that if extending a contract that was restructured numerous times was a fix all then the only restraint on teams is the owners willingness to spend mash amounts of cash.

 

And he’s correct 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

They pushed $110M into the future (aka, it will be due soon) and they got their all-pro retiring QB to not take the $25M he was due. 

 

They didn’t fix the problem. They delayed it. And got a gift from Brees.

if they can still sign marquee free agents and spend their cap, what is the problem, exactly?