Down Years Will Come. When You Have an Elite QB, Even Down Years Aren't So Bad.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Brees is the outlier. Those are some bad years for a QB of his caliber on the team. None of us would find a 9-8 season or worse with Allen acceptable. 

[corta765]

13 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Brees is the outlier. Those are some bad years for a QB of his caliber on the team. None of us would find a 9-8 season or worse with Allen acceptable. 

 

Brees was legit screwed by the way the NFL handled bountygate. Headcoach was gone a full year, draft picks gone, and cap space altered. 2014-16 shows what happens when a team gets blown to bits for a year. They recovered to make the playoffs in 13, but you lose years of development with what happened.

[ColoradoBills]

Of course winning the SB is the goal.  Bills have a great team.  Great teams have higher expectations.

Even with a great team it does still come down to how many other great teams are out there.

It then becomes an odds thing.  Playoff matchups, injuries and luck play a part of success too.

The road to the SB is easier if your team is in the NFC.  That is pretty obvious right now.

 

I kind of think that an average season now is the Bills are in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and it's whether or not they can win that game

which will decide if the season can be better than expected or worse.  Get to the final 4 as often as possible makes the odds much better.

I believe that is what Beane talks about.

 

Bills had a tough year last year.  Fans can decide for themselves if they want to hate the team for what happened or see the circumstances

as affecting the overall results.

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I’d be really curious on how many teams in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs four straight years with an equal or better winning percentage but didn’t get to a Super Bowl. There’s gotta be someone on here who can research that. 

[corta765]

28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’d be really curious on how many teams in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs four straight years with an equal or better winning percentage but didn’t get to a Super Bowl. There’s gotta be someone on here who can research that. 

 

happens way more then you think. Steelers of 2010s, Saints of 2010s, Seahawks of 2010s, etc.. its why making a SB is such a big deal. Getting good is not easy, but then taking that next step to the SB is even more difficult.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

To me its even more crushing to have an elite QB and get bounced from the playoffs early.

[wppete]

True and for that reason hitting in the draft is very important. Also UDFA. Beane needs to step up. 

[SoCal Deek]

42 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

happens way more then you think. Steelers of 2010s, Saints of 2010s, Seahawks of 2010s, etc.. its why making a SB is such a big deal. Getting good is not easy, but then taking that next step to the SB is even more difficult.

Thanks....I looked it up and the Steelers and Saints qualify but the Seahawks had a year in the middle of that run where they didn't make the playoffs.

[SoCal Deek]

I did a bit more research and the early 2000s Indianapolis Colts had a very similar playoff history and regular season win percentage as the current rendition of the Buffalo Bills. After being eliminated in the playoffs for four straight seasons the Colts then won the Super Bowl in 2006.

 

So there’s hope! 👍

[John from Riverside]

On 3/28/2023 at 8:49 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Ah yes, let's lower those expectations

 

I didn’t look at that post is lowering expectations. I think it’s more like you have to be in it to win it.
 

Making a wild card and then going on to win it all It’s also a way that it could go.

 

A single elimination game anything can happen

[SoCal Deek]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I didn’t look at that post is lowering expectations. I think it’s more like you have to be in it to win it.
 

Making a wild card and then going on to win it all It’s also a way that it could go.

 

A single elimination game anything can happen

That’s why I looked into the history of what I consider similar teams. And the Colts appear to the closest parallel to the Bills considering they had Peyton Manning during that era. They won consistently during that but couldn’t get over the proverbial hump until Year 5 of their streak. It’s also interesting to note that they continued their regular season success for four more years after their championship season although never won it again. 
 

Starting in 1999 the Colts went:

 

13-3

10-6

6-10 Missed playoffs

10-6

12-4

12-4

14-2

12-4 Super Bowl champions 

13-3

12-4

14-2 Lost Super Bowl

10-6 

 

Looks pretty familiar huh? 

 

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

That’s why I looked into the history of what I consider similar teams. And the Colts appear to the closest parallel to the Bills considering they had Peyton Manning during that era. They won consistently during that but couldn’t get over the proverbial hump until Year 5 of their streak. It’s also interesting to note that they continued their regular season success for four more years after their championship season although never won it again. 
 

Starting in 1999 the Colts went:

 

13-3

10-6

6-10 Missed playoffs

10-6

12-4

12-4

14-2

12-4 Super Bowl champions 

13-3

12-4

14-2 Lost Super Bowl

10-6 

 

Looks pretty familiar huh? 

 

Probably what our GM is shooting for

 

Have a chance to win it every year not have down years

 

We look at our team in a vacuum we don’t take into consideration that other teams can also have down years, lose players, players, get injured, etc. etc.

 

This year there were teams that were there at the end that barely made it

 

The year that the Rams won at all, they almost didn’t make it

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Probably what our GM is shooting for

 

Have a chance to win it every year not have down years

 

We look at our team in a vacuum we don’t take into consideration that other teams can also have down years, lose players, players, get injured, etc. etc.

 

This year there were teams that were there at the end that barely made it

 

The year that the Rams won at all, they almost didn’t make it

Exactly! I guarantee that Beane has studied NFL history, and has looked closely at what the Colts (and others) did once they got their franchise quarterback.
 

It’s also interesting to note that during the build up to their championship season the Colts had just lost two playoff games in a row to the Patriots before beating them in the third rematch. It all sounds VERY familiar! 
 

I cannot recall what the Colts did to finally beat their playoff nemesis. What missing piece did they add in 2006? Maybe somebody on here knows. 

[Bulldog]

I am a long-term fan (since 1970) - and I must say that it is so refreshing to be worrying a about a "down year" instead of "down decades" as was sometimes the case in the past, lol. Thanks to the McBeane regime and Josh Allen for bringing so much fun & success into our Bills fandom experience. In my opinion, keeping the team in contention - year after year - increases our likelihood of eventually hoisting a Lombardi trophy more than a reckless "all-in" one year that may or may not succeed & could set the franchise back for years if unsuccessful. 

[John from Riverside]

18 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

To me it’s even more crushing to have an elite QB and get bounced from the playoffs early.

Some truly have gone from not knowing what it’s like to have success  to being very entitled as fans

[78thealltimegreat]

The thing I hope is that Beane doesn’t keep relying on Allen to basically patch holes on the offense so he can keep loading up on defensive personnel in the off seasons to come. 
Hopefully he sees what happened to Josh’s pal Mr Rogers with Green Bay his last 5 or so years there and instead keeps adding to the offense as well 

[SoCal Deek]

By the way…in those years the Colts coach was Tony Dungy. He was widely considered to be an ‘high character’ guy. Anybody seeing the many similarities here? 

[machine gun kelly]

As long as we have JA17, aka Super Allen, we’re ok.  Beane will find us talent, McD calling the defensive plays will help, and Dorsey will grow as a play caller.

 

I still want Hopkins, but expect if happens will be close to the draft if not draft day 1.

 

We can then get one of these stud TE’s. The rest of the draft will be about depth in G, S, and another WR.  Hopkins is a technician so we could use a burner.  We’ll also need a LB.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

By the way…in those years the Colts coach was Tony Dungy. He was widely considered to be an ‘high character’ guy. Anybody seeing the many similarities here? 

I see no similarity to McD. honestly, I can't stand Dungy. as for comparing teams that had down seasons and still got the trophy, one can only hope JA and company can get at least one without any down years. I don't consider up to this point, they have had any down years. down years to me are not making the playoffs for 17 years.

 

making the playoffs, even with an early exit is not a down year to me.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

10 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

I see no similarity to McD. honestly, I can't stand Dungy. as for comparing teams that had down seasons and still got the trophy, one can only hope JA and company can get at least one without any down years. I don't consider up to this point, they have had any down years. down years to me are not making the playoffs for 17 years.

 

making the playoffs, even with an early exit is not a down year to me.

 

 

Did you look at my historical summary of the Colts run under Manning? It’s amazingly similar to the current Bills. They swooned one time in that run (maybe two) but ‘down’ years? Not really.