Lil dirty update - McKenzie released

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

At the moment, pre draft, who do you see as WR3?

 

I still think WR3 and OL are the biggest needs on offense.

 

As much as I liked Lil Dirty, he was not the answer.

Right now,  i think Harty is our best WR3, but I think that he’ll be on a snap count + he’ll be taking some snaps on the outside as well.  Between his snap count, inability blocking and also playing some on the outside,  I think shakir will play the most snaps in the slot (based the the current roster).  

I think Harty will play a bigger role in the offense.
 

I really like both players-  considering what we paid for the 2 of them, I think we got good value.  
 

agree about WR and OL being top needs- along with the obvious hole at mlb-  

 

if addison, jsn or Johnston don’t fall to us, I hope we can trade down and get a tackle, WR,  MLB and TE/IOL in the first 3 rounds.  Maybe a DL, RB, S and another WR in there somewhere  

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Jeudy is an upgrade for Davis no question…. Either way, I don’t think McBeane would pull the trigger on a first for him… especially with their self inflicted holes on the D-line and now MLB. We all know defense comes first with these guys.

Yes Scott, we all know.  We see you post it 25 times a day

[RocCityRoller]

19 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I agree that McKenzie wasn’t the expected replacement,  but neither was Crowder… like I said .. I think they expected both to share the role …

 

Harty is WR 4 as Beane said yesterday…. Inside and outside…
 

I want them to draft Davis’s replacement this year… not a slot guy…in the meantime lists see what Shakir can offer sharing the slot with Harty

 

Fair enough. Diggs is 30 and nearing contract end.

I am not as down on Davis as much of this board, but what will he ask for in a year?

 

Problem is the best WR in this draft are smaller slot guys. Not a lot of top end 6'0" 200lb  productive guys in this draft.

Draft a good slot guy, since the loss of Beasley's production hurt this offense and try again next season for the outside guy.

 

I guess that adds a lot to the Jerry Jeudy argument.

[Dr. Who]

44 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I knew it was only a matter of time before I got into the Davis debate.   I think Davis is excellent.   I never thought Davis was the 4-TD per game guy we saw in the playoffs, but I think he's an excellent #2.  Good hands (I can't explain his drop totals in 2022, but I don't think that's who he is).  Decent deep speed - not a burner, but he gets downfield.   Good connection with Allen.   I love his size.   Good red zone threat.   Would I like two #1s, like Cincy has, and a few other teams?  Sure, but I would much rather find an offensive lineman who can start in year 1 than go after that second #1 guy.   

 

One way to look at #2 is to think of it this way:  Who wants Robert Woods in his prime as the #2?   I do, and I think most everyone here does.  Davis is as complete a player, with a slightly different skill set.   

 

If I'm replacing someone, it's Knox.   I'd like a more consistent threat there, too, and I'm not sure why he hasn't risen.  

 

I'm happy with him.  As far as I'm concerned, if they get Allen the pass protection he deserves, the success of the passing game lies much more with Dorsey than with the #2 or the TE.   I think if Dorsey can run a creative passing attack, we all will be more than satisfied with Davis and Knox. 

 

  

And I didn't say it before, but thanks to McKenzie for the years he put in in Buffalo.   He worked his tail off, ran millions of fake jet sweeps, and kept the mood light.   He was a good guy to have on the team.

You have a higher opinion of Davis than I and it appears a somewhat lower opinion of Knox. Davis is an average #2, imo, but inconsistent and the drops last year were bad. Maybe they are an aberration as you suppose. I certainly hope so. I would still prefer another option to be added. My personal view is that Beane should try and add a Jeudy or an OBJ to compliment Diggs. I do agree, however, that really solidifying the oline ought to be the priority and if you get that right, Josh Allen will make everyone better. (I don't think the addition of McGovern alone is likely to accomplish that. At the least, you better bring in someone to compete with Brown at RT.) I think the problem with Knox is mostly one of game plan and emphasis, with the added difficulty that we needed Knox to frequently be used primarily to help an ineffective oline. I agree on OC. Dorsey really needs to have a second year leap. Hines and Cook were also under utilized.  

 

McKenzie had a few excellent games and as you note, he's a very engaging, affable personality. He was also frequently exasperating as a player. I wish him well and hope he signs with an NFC team so I can more easily root for him.

[RocCityRoller]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Right now,  i think Harty is our best WR3, but I think that he’ll be on a snap count + he’ll be taking some snaps on the outside as well.  Between his snap count, inability blocking and also playing some on the outside,  I think shakir will play the most snaps in the slot (based the the current roster).  

I think Harty will play a bigger role in the offense.
 

I really like both players-  considering what we paid for the 2 of them, I think we got good value.  
 

agree about WR and OL being top needs- along with the obvious hole at mlb-  

 

if addison, jsn or Johnston don’t fall to us, I hope we can trade down and get a tackle, WR,  MLB and TE/IOL in the first 3 rounds.  Maybe a DL, RB, S and another WR in there somewhere 

It's nice we are generally agreeing on things. Weird but nice 🤣

 

I'm hoping WR3 is not on the team yet.

Draftwise I like Flowers as a chain mover.

I think Hyatt is a game breaker but not a chain mover.

Assuming the top 3 WR are gone.

 

What are you thinking about a trade for Jeudy?

 

I was anti-Jeudy, but I am starting to understand the argument more.

I certainly don't want to give Denver a boatload of picks, but the #27???

 

What do you think?

[billsfan_34]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

And how did Isaiah's stats look compared to Cole Beasley's in any year he was the full time starting slot?

 

Isaiah was given the starting slot role to fill Cole's shoes. In 2020 Cole had 82 catches. In 2021 Cole had 82 catches. In 2022 Isiah had 42 catches.

 

That speaks to a lack of getting open.

Drops too…Cole was very “sure handed” those couple years and got YAC. McK falls when the wind hits him.

[RocCityRoller]

1 minute ago, NUT said:

He was not good enough. Problem is neither is Davis.

So you are mixing WR2 and WR3 up.

 

Simple exercise, very basic.

Show me the WR#2 that had more yards and more TDs than Davis did.

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

It's nice we are generally agreeing on things. Weird but nice 🤣

 

I'm hoping WR3 is not on the team yet.

Draftwise I like Flowers as a chain mover.

I think Hyatt is a game breaker but not a chain mover.

Assuming the top 3 WR are gone.

 

What are you thinking about a trade for Jeudy?

 

I was anti-Jeudy, but I am starting to understand the argument more.

I certainly don't want to give Denver a boatload of picks, but the #27???

 

What do you think?

The main reason I think/hope that our WR3 is already on the team:  i really prefer that we draft an outside WR in rd 1-3 as opposed to a slot guy.  
 

But if JSN falls to us, I’d be very happy with him and being our starting slot.  Then we could use Harty more on the outside. 

[RocCityRoller]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

The main reason I think/hope that our WR3 is already on the team:  i really prefer that we draft an outside WR in rd 1-3 as opposed to a slot guy.  
 

But if JSN falls to us, I’d be very happy with him and being our starting slot.  Then we could use Harty more on the outside. 

I would too, but not seeing those guys in this year's draft!

 

Sadly guys like JSN don't fall to 27 in weak WR drafts.....

[T master]

On 3/14/2023 at 4:58 PM, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

 

Does the move save any money in cap space ???

[BillsFanForever19]

Just now, T master said:

 

Does the move save any money in cap space ???

 

Yes, a little over 2 million.

[John from Riverside]

58 minutes ago, NUT said:

He was not good enough. Problem is neither is Davis.

There are still veteran wide, receivers available that can help us

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

So you are mixing WR2 and WR3 up.

 

Simple exercise, very basic.

Show me the WR#2 that had more yards and more TDs than Davis did.

 

Hmmm WR specifically, ie 2nd best WR on the team: Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Broaden it a bit to receiver so you include TE, need to add Juju Smith Schuster (#2 behind TE Kelce); Kittle had more TD and Hockenson more yards.

 

That would be about 8 teams with a better 1-2 punch.  2 of those 8 teams played in the AFCCG, so if it's an arms race (or maybe a hands race), Take Note.   This is why people look at our offensive skill players and say "Not Good Enough".

 

9 minutes ago, T master said:

 

Does the move save any money in cap space ???

 

Releasing McKenzie?  Yeah, $2.21M. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Beck Water

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

So you are mixing WR2 and WR3 up.

 

Simple exercise, very basic.

Show me the WR#2 that had more yards and more TDs than Davis did.

He got a lot of TDs but he had a lot of drops in crucial times. Some stalled drives, some took points off the board. 
There probably ain’t many #2s that got more targets then Gabe, you should look that up.  What I do know off hand is he had one game with over 100 yards and in that game 1 reception was 99 yards. He had close to 10 games under 50 yards and 2 or 3 games where he recorded more than 5 catches or more.  All that and his catch rate is around 50% which is pretty ***** low.  Great guy that works hard but he’s just too inconsistent 

[boyst]

I don't think I'm too crazy to think he could still assign with us at a later date for a much reduced salary.

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

I don't think I'm too crazy to think he could still assign with us at a later date for a much reduced salary.

 

He can't reduce it too much.  I guess it depends upon what you mean b y "much reduced salary".

 

Of the $2.21M he saved on the cap, $450-475k was roster and workout bonuses. 

So his salary was $1.73 or $1.76M-ish (when you're a pro football player, what's $30k between friends?)

 

Vet minimum for a player with 6 previous accrued seasons is $1.1M or $1.2M or something like that.

 

Now, he could sign a vet salary benefit or vet cap benefit deal, where he gets paid $1.1 or $1.2M, whatever it is, but the Bills get charged for a 2nd year player, $940k

 

My $0.02, that sounds rather ......... demotivational. 

"Hi, we're paying Stefon Diggs $14.875M this season, and we're paying the guy we signed to replace you $3.745M, but we know you bust your ass and bring a lot of energy to the team, so we cut you to save $1M - can we bring you back on a vet min deal?"

 

Better to leave that one alone, I think, unless he retires and is asked to come back as an injury replacement.

[RocCityRoller]

8 minutes ago, BananaB said:

He got a lot of TDs but he had a lot of drops in crucial times. Some stalled drives, some took points off the board. 
There probably ain’t many #2s that got more targets then Gabe, you should look that up.  What I do know off hand is he had one game with over 100 yards and in that game 1 reception was 99 yards. He had close to 10 games under 50 yards and 2 or 3 games where he recorded more than 5 catches or more.  All that and his catch rate is around 50% which is pretty ***** low.  Great guy that works hard but he’s just too inconsistent 

 

There were 16 WR in the entire NFL with 800+ yards receiving and 7+ TDs receiving.

Buffalo had 2 of them.

 

As many teams did not have Gabe Davis' production as a WR #1 as the Bills had from WR #2.

 

Miami had 2 (Hill/ Waddle), PHI had 2 (Brown/Smith), CIN had 2 (Chase/ Higgins) and Buffalo had 2 (Diggs/Davis)

That is not by accident.

 

With duplicates included, only 12 teams had a WR1 more productive than Gabe Davis.

Like it or not.

Kirk got signed for big money (people laughed), and Moore was a trade steal for Chicago.

 

The list of WR with 800+ yards and 7+ TDs

Justin Jefferson

Davante Adams

Tyreek Hill

CeeDee Lamb

Stefon Diggs

AJ Brown

DeVontae Smith

JaMarr Chase

Christian Kirk

Amari Cooper

Tyler Lockett

Jaylen Waddle

Brandon Aiyuk

Tee Higgins

Gabe Davis

DJ Moore

 

Pretty good list of WR.

 

By every metric Gabe Davis = DJ Moore.

 

Many teams would love to have DJ Moore be their #1 WR, yet TSW has pitchfroks for Davis. It is dumb herd mentality.

[BillsFanForever19]

23 minutes ago, boyst said:

I don't think I'm too crazy to think he could still assign with us at a later date for a much reduced salary.

 

I think unless there's an injury to Deonte Harty or Khalil Shakir before the season or during it, it wouldn't make sense. You don't need 3 slot WR's on the team.

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

So you are mixing WR2 and WR3 up.

 

Simple exercise, very basic.

Show me the WR#2 that had more yards and more TDs than Davis did.

I don't care about his yards on the season stat.  Take out one blowout game (we still destroy them if he was out) and his yards on the season absolutely sucks for a #2 in this offense.  Nobodies is in an outage over his yards this year.  People are pissed because he does not change the outcome of drives and games anywhere near enough. 

 

3 catch/game avg.  48 catches on the year. Disgusting and rage inducing.  He's not helping us move the chains.  He's not helping draw coverage away from Diggs or our slot or Knox.  He contributes to stalled drives by not contributing.  Stalled drives = less points, but also keeps Josh from getting in a rhythm flow state.  It feels like we have the worlds greatest 10 man offense.

 

Get the #@$& OPEN!

Catch the #%@&$g ball!!

 

And if he can't manage to do that consistently, then he can come in and play redzone snaps, the way a rotational player does.

 

DOES. NOT. IMPACT. GAMES.

 

3 - 4 HIGHLIGHT DEEPBALL TD'S/ YEAR DOES NOT MAKE YOU A #2 RECEIVER

 

Gabe is why we can't have the dink and dunk offense we want and look so f'n sharp with.  He's a major part of us having to throw 40yard bombs on 3rd and 4 in playoff games. If you need 5 seconds and 40 yards of room to get open, you don't deserve to start here. You're a situational player.

[Beck Water]

18 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

There were 16 WR in the entire NFL with 800+ yards receiving and 7+ TDs receiving.

Buffalo had 2 of them.

 

As many teams did not have Gabe Davis' production as a WR #1 as the Bills had from WR #2.

 

Miami had 2 (Hill/ Waddle), PHI had 2 (Brown/Smith), CIN had 2 (Chase/ Higgins) and Buffalo had 2 (Diggs/Davis)

That is not by accident.

 

That's a pretty specific pair of criteria for evaluating WR.  What about # of receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G, stuff like that?  The # of TDs a WR has seems pretty heavily influenced by how the team operates and how they operate in the RZ vs the WR's overall contributions to the team.

 

It just seems like cherry-picking a pair of metrics by which you can claim kudos for Davis, while ignoring things like # receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G and such which also are metrics of how a WR contributes, but where Davis doesn't measure up so well.

 

[BillsShredder83]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That's a pretty specific pair of criteria for evaluating WR.  What about # of receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G, stuff like that?  The # of TDs a WR has seems pretty heavily influenced by how the team operates and how they operate in the RZ vs the WR's overall contributions to the team.

 

It just seems like cherry-picking a pair of metrics by which you can claim kudos for Davis, while ignoring things like # receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G and such which also are metrics of how a WR contributes, but where Davis doesn't measure up so well.

 

He could bring what he does on a much lower snap count.  Which sounds like reverse of McKenzies year. McK goes from role to starter and he has 100 more yards on the year.  Thats what we call a diminished return folks.  Theyre bad investments.

Edited March 18, 2023 by BillsShredder83