Let's create TSW Bills draft big board - Final Conclusion: Kaiir Elam was the 5th option in TSW eyes when the Bills were picking.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I think we have totally lost the point of the original.  Of the guys left - including some of the guys already picked - none should be in play at 25.

 

You have got the 10 guys that might get picked, but picks 11 and 12 and the remaining picks are what is left - the Bills need to be moving out.  Because you eliminated the top 10 and are missing the QBs - we are dropping into guys that are not worthy - hence having to drop you requirements - these are not guys we are really considering.

Not sure if I follow you

 

Esp. bolded doesn't make any sense to me. Point (at least for the first round) is to have 25man board. That way you are prepared for any scenario that does not include trade. Right now we have 12 guys on the board + 10 considered locks in top 15 + maybe 2 QBs which will be taken ahead of us. Which means exactly opposite of what you are saying - guys on this list HAVE to be in play at 25. We need at least one more player to make sure that we have 25man board. And having this board was the whole point of this thread, so we haven't lost anything.

 

Now I understand that your opinion is that unless at most top 10 guys from our list make it to our pick Bills need to trade down. That is fine and entirely possible. But if we don't trade down, we have to pick someone and thus we need board that includes 25 players (minus some QBs).

 

Once we pick the next player or two we could stop this exercise since imo Beane isn't likely to trade down, but I am having fun with it so unless people stop voting I'll keep filling the board until actual draft.

 

 

[No_Matter_What]

Also added Quay Walker and George Pickens instead of Ebiketie and Cine. @T master

[JaCrispy]

Dotson > Burks

[T master]

10 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I was strongly considering both of them. Problem with both is that they are a little lower on "consensus" board, and Pickens in addition is also 5th WR (and I wanted to avoid splitting of WR votes).

 

But as I said I am ready to include them (or other preffered players) later today instead of some DE or S with zero votes. I'll let you know.

 

My opinion is based off of what Cosell said on 1 Bills Live he said Pickens was the best all around WR & that he thought Walker was the best of the 3 at Georgia if i remember correctly given that endorsement from him I'm willing to go all in on those 2 .

[JohnBonhamRocks]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Dotson > Burks

Why? Haven’t done nearly as much scouting as I’d like to.

[JaCrispy]

12 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Why? Haven’t done nearly as much scouting as I’d like to.

I just feel like he is a better all-around receiver...he just seems to do more things better than Burks...Dotson is faster, more quick twitch, superior route runner with better hands...He reminds me of a cross between Diggs and Robert Woods...

[Virgil]

On 4/14/2022 at 5:11 PM, No_Matter_What said:

EDIT: Since we have already chosen 12 players, I thought it was time to add new. However, since you can have only 20 options in one poll question, I had to completely restart the poll with new question. I also lowered number of required votes to 15.

 

The goal of this thread is to create Bills fans draft big board, i.e. an order (board) from players who could be available for our first round pick. 

 

Rules are simple. As soon as a player gets 15 votes he gets on the big board below and is removed from the poll. People who voted for chosen player can vote again. I will add more players as we will proceed.

 

I didn’t include top 10 players who have close to zero chance to get to our pick – Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, Charles Cross, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson, Ahmad Gardner, Derek Stingley and Kyle Hamilton. We might not have a chance on couple more players but this is where I decided to draw a line. I also didn’t include any QBs from obvious reasons.

 

Board - players already selected in our voting:

1. Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

2. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State 

3. Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson

4. Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

5. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

6. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

7. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

8. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

9. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

10. Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

11. Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

12. Drake London, WR, USC

13.

14.

15.

 

I have to say boss, I really like this idea and how it turned out.  I hope you bring it back next year.  In looking at how our Mocks are playing out, I think you have a pretty solid representation of the Bills fans preferred picks with your top 5

[No_Matter_What]

11 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

At what point do we start considering Karlaftis? He's certainly at the very top of BPAs left at this point.

I get we dropped 2 picks there last year, but BPA at a premier position... I don't think Beane would think twice about pulling the trigger if he's BPA.

I am no expert, but two things. Objectively, he should be close to BPA right now (I am on another comp but he is around 17-20 at consensus big board), but he is clearly falling a lot in mocks. 

 

And there is the DE Bills thing. We invested 3 high picks and lot of money (Miller) into the position last 2 years. If Beane was to draft another DE high, such guy needs to be such a clear BPA that there is no doubt that we have to take him. And that is and never will be Karlaftis at 25 or even much lower. It is something like Ojabo at 57 or so. We will see.

 

6 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I have to say boss, I really like this idea and how it turned out.  I hope you bring it back next year.  In looking at how our Mocks are playing out, I think you have a pretty solid representation of the Bills fans preferred picks with your top 5

Thanks, and I agree. Voting sample size is small but tendencies are pretty clear imo.

 

As for the board, Jahan Dotson was selected. Seems like yet another WR and CB are going to be next

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I just feel like he is a better all-around receiver...he just seems to do more things better than Burks...Dotson is faster, more quick twitch, superior route runner with better hands...He reminds me of a cross between Diggs and Robert Woods...

 

I disagree he is a better route runner. He is faster, he is quick twitch, give you both of those. He doesn't get off press. I don't see Diggs or Woods. I see Brandon Aiyuk. 

[Rochesterfan]

13 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Not sure if I follow you

 

Esp. bolded doesn't make any sense to me. Point (at least for the first round) is to have 25man board. That way you are prepared for any scenario that does not include trade. Right now we have 12 guys on the board + 10 considered locks in top 15 + maybe 2 QBs which will be taken ahead of us. Which means exactly opposite of what you are saying - guys on this list HAVE to be in play at 25. We need at least one more player to make sure that we have 25man board. And having this board was the whole point of this thread, so we haven't lost anything.

 

Now I understand that your opinion is that unless at most top 10 guys from our list make it to our pick Bills need to trade down. That is fine and entirely possible. But if we don't trade down, we have to pick someone and thus we need board that includes 25 players (minus some QBs).

 

Once we pick the next player or two we could stop this exercise since imo Beane isn't likely to trade down, but I am having fun with it so unless people stop voting I'll keep filling the board until actual draft.

 

 

 

How many guys do you think the Bills have set and advanced scouting reports on for Pick 25?  Since their overall board is around 100 players - they have maybe 10-15 and we know 5 of them are in your Top 10 and at least 1 of the QBs - so maybe 8 or 9 guys.
 

We needed no more than 10 guys there because all that is happening at this point is lower and lower level WRs and CBs are getting chosen.  We have the supposed top 10 and 2 QBs that will be picked - in addition several of the DEs and DTs and even the OL are better prospects, but will not get picked because they are not needs here.

 

We are reaching for prospects that are not going to be picked by the Bills in round 1 that fit more into our needs.  It is part of the reason you had to adjust the numbers needed - it has gone 4-5 picks to far.  We are no longer making a “big board” it is basically looking at a ranking on 2 positions - which would be interesting enough, but it is your time.

 

 

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

How many guys do you think the Bills have set and advanced scouting reports on for Pick 25?  Since their overall board is around 100 players - they have maybe 10-15 and we know 5 of them are in your Top 10 and at least 1 of the QBs - so maybe 8 or 9 guys.
 

We needed no more than 10 guys there because all that is happening at this point is lower and lower level WRs and CBs are getting chosen.  We have the supposed top 10 and 2 QBs that will be picked - in addition several of the DEs and DTs and even the OL are better prospects, but will not get picked because they are not needs here.

 

We are reaching for prospects that are not going to be picked by the Bills in round 1 that fit more into our needs.  It is part of the reason you had to adjust the numbers needed - it has gone 4-5 picks to far.  We are no longer making a “big board” it is basically looking at a ranking on 2 positions - which would be interesting enough, but it is your time.

 

 

Man it's probably a problem on my side but despite my effort I don't get what you are saying.

 

You say that Bills (in reality) need max 10 guys on the board for the first round, right?

 

And what happens if somehow all those 10 players are taken before we pick? Then we either reach for need (CB/WR as you say) or pick better prospect on other positions. I.e. whoever is next on our board. Which is what we are simulating here. 

 

And obviously, as we go on the board becomes relevant for 2nd round, not 1st. Which again is fine for me and I see no harm in it.

 

EDIT: To be more specific. I assume that you are saying that Bills have on their board only e.g. WRs Williams, Wilson, Olave, Burks, CBs Stingley, Gardner, Booth, McDuffie, OG Johnson, S Hamilton, some top OTs including Penning, LB Lloyd and thats it. So what happens if they are all gone? We have to pick someone. Someone who is next on the board. I have no idea if it is Linderbaum or Jordan Davis if they somehow fall, or if it is Kyler Gordon or Jahan Dotson who they might consider 2nd round talents, but they have to pick someone who is next on their board. And goal of this thread was to simulate such board.

Edited April 20, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[Rochesterfan]

43 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Man it's probably a problem on my side but despite my effort I don't get what you are saying.

 

You say that Bills (in reality) need max 10 guys on the board for the first round, right?

 

And what happens if somehow all those 10 players are taken before we pick? Then we either reach for need (CB/WR as you say) or pick better prospect on other positions. I.e. whoever is next on our board. Which is what we are simulating here. 

 

And obviously, as we go on the board becomes relevant for 2nd round, not 1st. Which again is fine for me and I see no harm in it.

 

EDIT: To be more specific. I assume that you are saying that Bills have on their board only e.g. WRs Williams, Wilson, Olave, Burks, CBs Stingley, Gardner, Booth, McDuffie, OG Johnson, S Hamilton, some top OTs including Penning, LB Lloyd and thats it. So what happens if they are all gone? We have to pick someone. Someone who is next on the board. I have no idea if it is Linderbaum or Jordan Davis if they somehow fall, or if it is Kyler Gordon or Jahan Dotson who they might consider 2nd round talents, but they have to pick someone who is next on their board. And goal of this thread was to simulate such board.

 

The Bills run a small board with no more than around 100 people to cover the entire draft.  They have guys you listed - probably 10-15 on their list - if those guys are all gone - they will see what dropped, but they would be looking to move out.  
 

Beane has been very clear that guys are in buckets and you do not overdraft because things fall - their plans will change, but the worst thing they can do is reach for a Roger McCreary that has a 2nd round grade and pick him in rd #1 - first come the expectations that he will not be able to achieve, then comes the overpayment for less value.  It is a bad situation- see Shaq Lawson.

 

If their guys are gone - someone has dropped - in this case it is DE, DT, OT, and even LB that some other team will most likely want. 
 

The board obviously views WR and CB as the biggest needs and are picking guys at need over talent.  
 

And to be clear - I don’t think McDuffie, Gardner, or Davis are on their board.

 

I think they are eyeing Stingly, Booth, and Hall - maybe Gordon and Cine at DB along with Hamilton.

 

I think they have a couple of Offensive lineman that are projected in that area.

 

I think they have several WRs that are grouped up - most notably Williams, Wilson, and Olave - I am not sure how they feel about some others, but I am not sure a slot guy like Dotson makes their list.  I think they prefer to move to round 2 with Watson, Pickens, Moore, and I believe Burks as better fits.

Look - I am not trying to get after you - it is just after the top 8 or so players - we are picking the same positions and guys that are not in the same profile as others and we are bypassing higher talent at higher end positions that just should not happen because people want CB and WR.  
 

It is whatever - I just think at this point the most of the new people being added are not even getting a sniff at 25, but because they are a WR and a CB not because they are best players or guys we will pick at 25.  That is a me issue at this point.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Rochesterfan

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree he is a better route runner. He is faster, he is quick twitch, give you both of those. He doesn't get off press. I don't see Diggs or Woods. I see Brandon Aiyuk. 

The comparison to Diggs is pretty good. Dotson is a very good route runner, has excellent speed, and elite hands and ball skills. 
 

He’s not a big guy. But where does this “can’t get off press” nonsense come from?  The guy played most snaps as Z.  He wasn’t a slot receiver at PSU. Gained 2000 yds the past 2 seasons, including the covid shortened season. Against OSU, who puts as many DBs in the NFL as anyone, and plays mostly man coverage, Dotson had over 100 yds in each of the past two seasons. 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

The comparison to Diggs is pretty good. Dotson is a very good route runner, has excellent speed, and elite hands and ball skills. 
 

He’s not a big guy. But where does this “can’t get off press” nonsense come from?  The guy played most snaps as Z.  He wasn’t a slot receiver at PSU. Gained 2000 yds the past 2 seasons, including the covid shortened season. Against OSU, who puts as many DBs in the NFL as anyone, and plays mostly man coverage, Dotson had over 100 yds in each of the past two seasons. 

 

Think his tape shows evidence of a guy who has had some struggles against press man. I know he wasn't a slot at Penn State. I think that is his home at the next level. 

 

EDIT: that said I preface it with you have no doubt seen more of him than I have. Maybe I am wrong on Dotson but the games I have watched I think he is a slot at the next level. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by GunnerBill

[No_Matter_What]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

The Bills run a small board with no more than around 100 people to cover the entire draft.  They have guys you listed - probably 10-15 on their list - if those guys are all gone - they will see what dropped, but they would be looking to move out.  
 

Beane has been very clear that guys are in buckets and you do not overdraft because things fall - their plans will change, but the worst thing they can do is reach for a Roger McCreary that has a 2nd round grade and pick him in rd #1 - first come the expectations that he will not be able to achieve, then comes the overpayment for less value.  It is a bad situation- see Shaq Lawson.

 

If their guys are gone - someone has dropped - in this case it is DE, DT, OT, and even LB that some other team will most likely want. 
 

The board obviously views WR and CB as the biggest needs and are picking guys at need over talent.  
 

And to be clear - I don’t think McDuffie, Gardner, or Davis are on their board.

 

I think they are eyeing Stingly, Booth, and Hall - maybe Gordon and Cine at DB along with Hamilton.

 

I think they have a couple of Offensive lineman that are projected in that area.

 

I think they have several WRs that are grouped up - most notably Williams, Wilson, and Olave - I am not sure how they feel about some others, but I am not sure a slot guy like Dotson makes their list.  I think they prefer to move to round 2 with Watson, Pickens, Moore, and I believe Burks as better fits.

Look - I am not trying to get after you - it is just after the top 8 or so players - we are picking the same positions and guys that are not in the same profile as others and we are bypassing higher talent at higher end positions that just should not happen because people want CB and WR.  
 

It is whatever - I just think at this point the most of the new people being added are not even getting a sniff at 25, but because they are a WR and a CB not because they are best players or guys we will pick at 25.  That is a me issue at this point.

 

 

 

 

Ok I partly agree, definitely some players will not be on our board. We can only make educated or less educated guesses which

 

I agree that we as fans tend to agree put more value on positions of need. But I don't think that it got out of control here. We still pick other players at some point and really good ones make their way to this board.

 

Anyway, for me part of the fun will be comparing it to real results. Looking at board we created here it is very realistic that Daxton Hill will be best available. Will we in fact choose him over some WRs available or someone like Davis/Lloyd/Linderbaum or other players who could be possibly falling?  And stuff like this. I guess we will see.

[No_Matter_What]

23 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Dotson > Burks

I just watched some of his film. I like him. While I certanly hope we can do better in the first round, he is acceptable as a consolation prize  I still prefer Burks though.

[No_Matter_What]

Treylon Burks selected.

 

This makes our first round board complete - with 10 players presumably out of reach and some QBs in the mix we are guaranteed to have a shot at at least one of these 14 players.

 

Really curious how it ends up in real life.

 

I'll let the voting open just in case that somebody else reaches 15 votes but my main goal was fulfilled. Thanks everybody for their participation!

[Hermes]

15 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Treylon Burks selected.

 

This makes our first round board complete - with 10 players presumably out of reach and some QBs in the mix we are guaranteed to have a shot at at least one of these 14 players.

 

Really curious how it ends up in real life.

 

I'll let the voting open just in case that somebody else reaches 15 votes but my main goal was fulfilled. Thanks everybody for their participation!

When the draft starts just cross out players that were selected and then when it gets to the Bills pick it will hopefully matchup with the boards pick. Otherwise you can matchup how the board falls in line with the perceived value of the players when they're taken.  I.e. the 10th pick was our first pick so it's a wash but the 11th pick was our 15th so we're plus 4 on that one.  Or something like that... You'd have to make a rudimentary formula but I have faith in you. lol

[No_Matter_What]

I almost forgot to close this thing.

 

When we were on the clock, following players from our big board (listed in OP) were still available:

 

3. Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson

7. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

8. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

9. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

 

Kaiir Elam had most votes when I closed the poll, so I consider him next on the board. Booth's medical concerns were apparently bigger than we expected, and I don't think Bills were interested in the first round LB at all. So all in all we were pretty close to the Bills choice.

[CA OC Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I almost forgot to close this thing.

 

When we were on the clock, following players from our big board (listed in OP) were still available:

 

3. Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson

7. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

8. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

9. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

 

Kaiir Elam had most votes when I closed the poll, so I consider him next on the board. Booth's medical concerns were apparently bigger than we expected, and I don't think Bills were interested in the first round LB at all. So all in all we were pretty close to the Bills choice.

So, the question is, how many voted after the Bills picked (or after the draft started)! It seems too unlikely that Elam had the most votes of everyone.