Breece Hall Please!!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

It’d be better to pass our spot all the way to the 2nd round than take a RB in the 1st round who don’t have a 1st round grade.  Harris and Etienne were universally rated as 1st round talents.  

What if all 1st round grades are gone?

[CapeBreton]

10 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

For those wondering, Travis ETN and Najee Harris went 24th and 25th last year. 

I don’t hate Breece Hall but I just don’t think he’s as nearly as good as Najee Harris so that’s why I can’t get behind him at 25. I feel like the RB class is weak which makes a guy like Breece Hall stand out but I think he’s more of a second round guy. I just don’t like the value of an RB in round 1 unless he’s a star. 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, CapeBreton said:

I don’t hate Breece Hall but I just don’t think he’s as nearly as good as Najee Harris so that’s why I can’t get behind him at 25. I feel like the RB class is weak which makes a guy like Breece Hall stand out but I think he’s more of a second round guy. I just don’t like the value of an RB in round 1 unless he’s a star. 

You realize Breece Hall did what he did behind an O-line that won’t feature a signal lineman that is going to get drafted this year. Where as Najee had profession players at Alabama. Yet Hall is faster than Najee? 

[Solomon Grundy]

33 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Make a living? 

 

This isn't a 3rd rounder making $900k per year and maybe still having $1M left in the bank if he's lucky.  

 

When you make him a first round pick he will have already earned $11M-$12M in his first 3 years.

 

If he plays well.........he has that "war chest" in the bank to allow him hold out for a new contract after year 3.

 

And if you don't oblige........having already picked up his 5th year option.........he can punish you and just show up late in the season of year 4........just in time to accrue a season........and at worst he gets to show up for his $10M guaranteed payday in year 5.

 

So 3 seasons and an abbreviated one for around $25M.

 

If he actually plays well enough to pick up the option in the first place.

 

Which is only a 40% proposition........worst such % among regular positions.

 

I guess if you are determined to screw yourself one way or the other............and it doesn't matter which way..........it's a no-brainer pick. 

 

For all the obsession with run-in' backs some of you really haven't thought this thru at all.

I believe the poster said after the Bills win the SB his 1st season. 

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Or another hypothetical: say the Bills pick Breece Hall or whoever, win a Super Bowl, and Breece Hall is so good that they're like "we probably wouldn't have won the SB without Breece Hall." You really think they're not going to pay the man? Or He's not going to be holding out for what he's worth?

 

[BuffaloRebound]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

What if all 1st round grades are gone?

Then reach for a CB, not a RB.  Good #2 CB’s go for $10m+ per year in free agency.  Hall would have to immediately be a top 10 RB to justify salary of a 1st round pick as a RB.  

[CapeBreton]

3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

You realize Breece Hall did what he did behind an O-line that won’t feature a signal lineman that is going to get drafted this year. Where as Najee had profession players at Alabama. Yet Hall is faster than Najee? 

Wasn’t Najee against tougher competition? It goes both ways. Najee proved he can do it the NFL too. I just feel like Najee is a better RB based on the tape and was a way better value at 24 than Breece would be at 25. 

[NewEra]

44 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Well, I didn’t think McBeane were dumb enough to take first round RB so I didn’t even think it was an option…. Seems like I was wrong but still crossing my fingers I’m not. 😅

I’d happily take outside CB prospect over RB any day.

Of course you would.  That way you can complain about them drafting defense in round one again.  Either way, you’ll be able to complain.  Looking into the crystal ball, the only way you won’t complain is if we draft a WR or OT.  
 

 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree with most of your take. However, thr Bills run game was good or better than good in the latter part of last year. Singletary was running well, pass catching, making big plays, and scoring touchdowns. Part of his success was the Oline and the changes and commitments they made to running the ball. I'm not sure why people here are so down on the Bills running game? Sure, moves can always be made to improve it. Additionally, I believe you let Allen make plays with his legs. You don't take that great asset off the table. It can be dialed back as needed. He has shown the ability to be durable. Nevertheless, I do cringe when he's running.

 

I'd rather go the route of improving the Oline than select the "shiney new toy" named Hall. I don't feel like Hall is elite or will be elite. No way does he warrant being picked at 25. 

 

 

I would prefer Zion Johnson myself at 25 but I'm not going to complain if they take Hall.   It may be a moot point anyway since most of the recent mock drafts have both Zion and the other outstanding center, Tyler Linderbaum, off the board before 25.

[dje85]

56 minutes ago, 716er said:

What was the least season where the first RB taken in the draft was the best RB in that class?

2019 Josh Jacobs

[Shake_My_Head]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

This isn’t a big deal to me. I think the Bills would be just fine to use him up for 4 years on a rookie deal and let him walk for a big payday. 

 

I can live with that as well.    If he walks for a big free agent deal in his second contract, it'll mean the Bills have had a lot of success in 2023, 2024 and 2025 that he played a major part in.  

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Of course you would.  That way you can complain about them drafting defense in round one again.  Either way, you’ll be able to complain.  Looking into the crystal ball, the only way you won’t complain is if we draft a WR or OT.  
 

 

 

Meh........you are getting carried away with yourself just for the sake of it there.

 

Addressing the offense with a first round pick first assumes that it's a position you should use a first round pick on.

 

Technically a blocking TE, a fullback or a slot-receiver-only are also offensive players but throwing a first round pick at them doesn't really make sense.

 

There are about 4 premium positions on offense.......QB/WRX/WRY/LT.........and a lineman who starts at RT or guard but is expected to graduate to LT also qualifies as a 5th premium option and certain great TE's.....like Kyle Pitts last season........qualify as great receivers in the same way that certain great DT's count as pass rushers.

[gobills404]

2 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I personally think people wayyyy overrated these late 1st rounders. It’s as if they’re expecting a 10 year all pro. It’s the 25th pick for cripes sake. Take him, beat the freaking brakes off him. Win… move on. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by gobills404

[muppy]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

In the past 30 years the Bills haven't once lived to regret not selecting a RB in round 1 who subsequently went in round 1.

 

The only regrets are the one's they did select.

 

ALL of them.

 

Drafting RB's in round 1 being dumb is "OJ did it" obvious..........except here the civil aspect is the actual decision.

 

You may not like the take but you'd be betting against some incredibly steep odds to think it would turn into an excellent choice.

 

Schopp said he "felt alive" having the debate LOL.   

 

That's why we are here........either to be entertained in my case......or to vent emotionally in yours. 

so I guess drafting Thurman Thomas in 1988 having fallen to the 2nd round was a regrettable move also...NOT. Remember that long embarrassing wait he endured because he by all accounts  was expected to have been drafted earlier in the draft  First round.......surprising drop out of the first due to knee concerns,,,,,,. It was one example that came to mind to refute your point.  #34 wasn't technically a first round choice but IMO his selection was proven Very valuable. As far as 30 years........... well my example is just outside of that he having been drafted in 1988. But my basic point remains the same

 

You say stuff like "obviously stupid" you are stating your opinion as a fact along with it calling everyone that doesnt agree with you stupid. Again, Disagree.

 

m

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by muppy

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Paul Costa said:

Why has everyone broke the Beane draft code this year. No one has ever known who the Bills would take since Beane’s arrival. Why start now?

True but it's kind of fun trying to give it an educated guess. Makes the draft process more fun.

[Milanos Milano]

Look at the company that Breece Hall is in! At 9.96 RAS, he has a greater than above average chance at seeing multiple 1k+ seasons in the NFL. Considering his speed, he should be able to perform. It is well worth the risk at 25. 

 

https://ras.football/2017/05/21/does-athleticism-correlate-to-nfl-success-for-running-backs/

Taking a first round RB only makes sense if their RAS scores and college production are elite. At 9.96 RAS, 2 seasons of 1400 yard+, and a 4.39 40. Chances are probably above 75% that Breece Hall has at least 3 seasons of 1,000 yards rushing based on the statistical analysis of those with similar attributes. 

[mrags]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I agree.  I would trade up for Williams too.   I’m thinking it’s gonna take a top 13 pick though.  Unless schoen gives us a discount, it’ll cost a lot. Maybe too much. 

 

 

IF… a big IF, Williams makes it to 13-15. Beane should be on the phone with every team that’s on the clock until we make the trade, or he gets drafted. 

[Milanos Milano]

I would have never have drafted Helaire and a few others over the years using my formula and I would have been right. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Then reach for a CB, not a RB.  Good #2 CB’s go for $10m+ per year in free agency.  Hall would have to immediately be a top 10 RB to justify salary of a 1st round pick as a RB.  

The only reason to draft a 1st round RB is you believe he’s a workhorse immediately. 
 

The Bills have had good pass defense without spending top assets on a CB2. 
 

There are multiple ways to argue this.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[mrags]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I caught Schopp and Bulldog on a rant about why you should NEVER take a RB in round 1 today...........and it was one of the most entertaining bits I've ever heard on WGR. 

This reason alone makes me want to draft Hall in the first round. Maybe we can drive Schoop insane to the point that he jumps off a bridge. 

[Milanos Milano]

I would have drafted players like LeSean though despite RAS because they at least 2 years of production and a 4.45 or lower 40 time. 4.45 would be my cutoff. Generally my cutoff for RAS is 8. 

 

The one player the formula would have missed for sure is Alvin Kamara, but players like him are a rare occurrence in the dataset.