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Five Thirty Eight Predictions


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Got to admit I haven't felt this much positive feedback from media analysts in a very long time and I'm a 40 year fan. 

 

Many picking Bills for the SB, Allen as MVP and McD for COTY. I got so used to embrassing the underdog role and relishing unexpected victories. This feels kinda strange.

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2 hours ago, eball said:

I love this page.  The Bills have the 2 best QBs in the AFC East.  LOL

I think that scale is actually very accurate. MT is a little worse than Baker Mayfield, and a little better than Bridgewater. In fact the only player I noticed that is ridiculously wrong is Russell Wilson but maybe his last month last year was that bad.

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I think that scale is actually very accurate. MT is a little worse than Baker Mayfield, and a little better than Bridgewater. In fact the only player I noticed that is ridiculously wrong is Russell Wilson but maybe his last month last year was that bad.

Wilson starts strong and then falls off as the season progresses.

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What I'd like to see is predictions based on simulations where each team loses five starters throughout the year to injuries or other multi-game absences.  It would have to be a lot of simulations because there are so many scenarios.  What if a team loses three O line starters?  Two CBs?   The starting QB?  

 

Factor all THAT in and I think the Bills are in better shape than anyone else.  They have the deepest roster with players that all range from good (only a few) to very good to excellent to outstanding to elite.  The Bills' distribution of talent level across their roster is more balanced than any other team I can think of.  Most really good teams have a few more stars than the Bills but a lot more ugly ducklings the GMs are hoping turn out to be swans.  If those ugly ducklings have to play a lot, their team will be laying an egg or two.  

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