Biden creates an economic crisis--Unemployment, Inflation, risk of STAGLFATION increasing

[Big Blitz]

15 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

FYI - I fully expect it to come in *lower* and they'll claim it as some sort of win, for you, the little people.

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha told you

....this is all good news!!

 

Freaking Russia!!

 

 

 

Stocks open higher after inflation data feeds hopes price pressures are peaking

 

U.S. stocks opened higher Tuesday, finding support after a hotter-than-expected rise in the March consumer price index was read as a sign inflation pressures may be peaking, analysts said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average _ rose 114 points, or 0.3%, to 34,422, while the S&P 500 _ rose 27 points, or 0.6%, to 4,439. The Nasdaq Composite _ gained 142 points, or 1.1%, to13,554. The data showed the rate of inflation in the past year moved up to 8.5% in March from 7.9%. The last time inflation breached 8% was in January 1982. Analysts said a potential sign inflation might be peaking came from the smallest monthly increase in six months in the so-called core rate of inflation that strips out food and energy, which rose just 0.3% last month

 

 

https://on.mktw.net/3E9sno3

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

On 3/30/2022 at 1:38 PM, SoCal Deek said:

Everyone comes at this issue from a different angle, but I'll never buy into the concept that anyone's estate should magically revert back to the State upon their demise. For myself, I came from virtually nothing. The estate I've amassed was created from a ton of hard work and with the love and support of a dedicated family.  For every story like mine there are thousands who squandered/spent every dime they made along the way. (I have a few business partners who live just that way.) Some on here promote the idea that the government should come in and say "thanks for playing, we'll take over from here". Why? On who's authority? I gave the government their required share each step along the way. They're supposed to be providing services to me....not the other way around. What did they do with their annual cut?  Did they save and/or invest it...like I did?  Or, did they squander it, like so many do? I'll answer it for you: They squandered it! 

Our system finds it roots in Olde English Law.   We can watch a movie like Braveheart and not notice the similarities with today's America.  In the old days, it was Kings, Bishops and the like, today the Government is king and there are all sorts of emissaries out and about to enforce the rules of the kingdom.  

 

For some people, the freedom comes from taking a deep breath, stepping off the ledge and pursuing a better life in whatever fashion resonates with that person.  Education. Business. Service to the community.  Deadheading across the country.   For others, it comes from public entitlements, riding the coattails of financially successful people, or sitting and complaining about 'fair share' as if anything even remotely like that exists in the world.   Then of course, there's a whole lot of folks squarely in between the two.  

 

I'm with you on this point.  I believe that paying tax and contributing to the greater good is my obligation, but that this system more than occasionally runs amuck over folks trying to get ahead to the next level.   They take the approach that "What's yours is mine, what's mine go f yourself, it's mine.".  

[Big Blitz]

Huge increases in food:

 

 

 

Hourly wages down:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's go Brandon!!!

[Chef Jim]

2 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Amazing the thoughts that come from a guy with a career in the financial sector. 
 

The governmental scam-a-lam on a traditional IRA eludes many people.  Save pennies now, get taxed on the whole nut later. Better than a stick in the eye, but a pretty nice source of tax revenue for the government. 
 

I know a fellow who converted his traditional IRAs over a couple years about 10 years ago.  Tax bill was about $800k.  Best move he ever made, he said.  
 

Meanwhile, one leg of the Dems plan to incentivize investment in one’s future is to erase the debt incurred by said people in search of enlightenment who prefer to spend their money on other things.  
 

Brilliant.  

Conversions are a great tool. Now he has a pile of money he can live off of tax free but also use it for big ticket items like cars.  He should also be thanked by his heirs as they will likely inherit the leftover Roth money tax free.  
 

Be careful with big conversions close to 65 however.  The conversions hit your return as income and Medicare premiums are means tested and they look back 2 years and they can get real steep.  

[Big Blitz]

It's going to be Russia's fault for everything including the Magenta Wave in November 

 

 

 

 

 

The good news is Hollywood has their go-to villains again.  

 

 

 

 

 

Sobering

 

 

 

All self inflicted by the Democrat Party 

Edited April 12, 2022 by Big Blitz

[Chef Jim]

2 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

As Prices Rise Americans Turning to Their Credit Cards.

 

'Consumer debt rose at the fastest pace in 20 years in February.”

 

 

https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/as-prices-rise-americans-turning-to-their-credit-cards/

 

 

 

I brought this likely scenario a bit ago. 

[Chef Jim]

2 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Amazing the thoughts that come from a guy with a career in the financial sector. 
 

The governmental scam-a-lam on a traditional IRA eludes many people.  Save pennies now, get taxed on the whole nut later. Better than a stick in the eye, but a pretty nice source of tax revenue for the government. 
 

I know a fellow who converted his traditional IRAs over a couple years about 10 years ago.  Tax bill was about $800k.  Best move he ever made, he said.  
 

Meanwhile, one leg of the Dems plan to incentivize investment in one’s future is to erase the debt incurred by said people in search of enlightenment who prefer to spend their money on other things.  
 

Brilliant.  

Back to conversions.  If the government was smart (I know I know) they’d incentivize conversions.  Conversions fill the government coffers now instead of bit by bit as people spend down their IRAs over potentially several decades.  An incentive my be a flat tax on conversions and not have it be part of the Medicare premium means test.
 

 The big incentive many use is if you think your taxes are going up it makes sense to convert now at the lower rate.  But we don’t know where tax rates will be next year let alone 20, 30 or more years down the road.  So that could backfire.  

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

4 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Back to conversions.  If the government was smart (I know I know) they’d incentivize conversions.  Conversions fill the government coffers now instead of bit by bit as people spend down their IRAs over potentially several decades.  An incentive my be a flat tax on conversions and not have it be part of the Medicare premium means test.
 

 The big incentive many use is if you think your taxes are going up it makes sense to convert now at the lower rate.  But we don’t know where tax rates will be next year let alone 20, 30 or more years down the road.  So that could backfire.  

Makes sense to me.  I'm 60, with plans to convert when I can, in whole or in part.  I'll take the Medicare suggestion under advisement, but if I'm rolling the bones, I'm figuring tax free to my family with a legacy goal for my heirs is the best bet.  

 

Then again, silly me, I figured helping my children achieve their higher education goals was an investment in their future.  Who knew? 

[Chef Jim]

2 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Makes sense to me.  I'm 60, with plans to convert when I can, in whole or in part.  I'll take the Medicare suggestion under advisement, but if I'm rolling the bones, I'm figuring tax free to my family with a legacy goal for my heirs is the best bet.  

 

Then again, silly me, I figured helping my children achieve their higher education goals was an investment in their future.  Who knew? 

Just like they say regarding your oxygen mask on a plane.  Put yours on first then save the ***** rug rats……I mean children last. 
 

BTW one of the best tax free legacy plays is life insurance. 
 

***the above posts were for entertainment purposes only and not meant as any recommendations.  See your advisor and tax preparer before doing anything stupid***

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

44 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Just like they say regarding your oxygen mask on a plane.  Put yours on first then save the ***** rug rats……I mean children last. 
 

BTW one of the best tax free legacy plays is life insurance. 
 

***the above posts were for entertainment purposes only and not meant as any recommendations.  See your advisor and tax preparer before doing anything stupid***

We were fortunate enough to plan for both--and have cv life insurance for that purpose.  One can never be sure what the tax situation w/r to inheritance will be at the time of one's demise.   In this vein, I actually just got off the phone with my attorney to schedule a revisitation of our will.  

 

I do agree that many folks focus on the children first, then figure they'll figure themselves out later.  Lost time generally,  divorce, job loss,  lost time in the market, disability/premature death and 15 other things can end up scuttling your plans.  A neighbor of mine many years ago mortgaged the house to pay for his daughter's education at Colgate...then sold the house and moved to Az when he got sick and things got tight. If I recall, he was moving in with the Colgatian.  That's cool, huh? 

 

Of course, Einstein famously said that "The most powerful force in the universe is a benevolent government absolving you of debt foolishly incurred.". 

 

Thanks for the disclaimer.  🙉

Edited April 12, 2022 by leh-nerd skin-erd

[Chef Jim]

27 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

We were fortunate enough to plan for both--and have cv life insurance for that purpose.  One can never be sure what the tax situation w/r to inheritance will be at the time of one's demise.   In this vein, I actually just got off the phone with my attorney to schedule a revisitation of our will.  

 

I do agree that many folks focus on the children first, then figure they'll figure themselves out later.  Lost time generally,  divorce, job loss,  lost time in the market, disability/premature death and 15 other things can end up scuttling your plans.  A neighbor of mine many years ago mortgaged the house to pay for his daughter's education at Colgate...then sold the house and moved to Az when he got sick and things got tight. If I recall, he was moving in with the Colgatian.  That's cool, huh? 

 

Of course, Einstein famously said that "The most powerful force in the universe is a benevolent government absolving you of debt foolishly incurred.". 

 

Thanks for the disclaimer.  🙉

The American way is to a) I’ll worry about it when I get there and b) Social Security will take care of me.  Sure if your idea of a nice retirement is watching Jerry Springer shows.  
 

Retirement should be a time of freedom.  Few worries of being a financial burden to your family including your spouse. Time to do all the things you didn’t have time to do when you were working and the money to do so. 

 

Glad you’ve done some very important planning.  Now back to my first retirement adventure. 😎 🏖 

[Tenhigh]

On 3/31/2022 at 8:50 PM, aristocrat said:

 

That is called "The Lionel Hutz".  NO! MONEY DOWN!

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

The American way is to a) I’ll worry about it when I get there and b) Social Security will take care of me.  Sure if your idea of a nice retirement is watching Jerry Springer shows.  
 

Retirement should be a time of freedom.  Few worries of being a financial burden to your family including your spouse. Time to do all the things you didn’t have time to do when you were working and the money to do so. 

 

Glad you’ve done some very important planning.  Now back to my first retirement adventure. 😎 🏖 

Chef…that’s a pretty recent interpretation of retirement. Not very long ago social security was conceived as something to get you through the few years you might have after the paychecks stopped coming in. The baby boomer generation turned retirement into a much more extravagant experience. 

[Big Blitz]

Omg.....hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

 

 

 

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha 

 

Putin’s price hike....omg their voters are being told they're morons.  

[Chef Jim]

50 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Chef…that’s a pretty recent interpretation of retirement. Not very long ago social security was conceived as something to get you through the few years you might have after the paychecks stopped coming in. The baby boomer generation turned retirement into a much more extravagant experience. 

Yes but still a majority of boomers have very little in their retirement plans are are relying on SS.  

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

Yes but still a majority of boomers have very little in their retirement plans are are relying on SS.  

Exactly my point. Many are going to be super disappointed. 

[Chef Jim]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Exactly my point. Many are going to be super disappointed. 

 
Not the ones working with me. 😂

[Chef Jim]

Well finally Biden does something to help with gas prices.  He will allow ethanol blended gas so be used throughout the summer.  This is great news!!  
 

What?  There are 150,000 gas stations in the US and only 2,300 use the ethanol blend?   
 

 

[B-Man]

Thanks Joe.

 

WaPo: Inflation about to kill off the great real-estate boom

 

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/04/15/wapo-inflation-about-to-kill-off-the-great-real-estate-boom-n462641

[B-Man]

 

 

 

PRIORITIES: 

 

Biden’s Economic Report Mentions ‘Gender’ 40 More Times Than ‘Inflation.’

 

https://www.tampafp.com/bidens-economic-report-mentions-gender-40-more-times-than-inflation/

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

CAROL ROTH: What are the warning signs of a recession?

 

Changes in inflation, including rapid inflation, can be a sign of a pending recession. Increasing commodity prices, which are obviously linked to inflationary pressures as they trickle through the economy, can also flash a warning sign.

 

Obviously, those indicators are definitely not bullish for the economy. Inflation is at the highest levels in four decades, and commodity prices are continuing to add to costs throughout the supply chain, impacting consumers.

 

 

Naturally of course, Biden takes no blame:

 

 

 

 

[Chef Jim]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

CAROL ROTH: What are the warning signs of a recession?

 

Changes in inflation, including rapid inflation, can be a sign of a pending recession. Increasing commodity prices, which are obviously linked to inflationary pressures as they trickle through the economy, can also flash a warning sign.

 

Obviously, those indicators are definitely not bullish for the economy. Inflation is at the highest levels in four decades, and commodity prices are continuing to add to costs throughout the supply chain, impacting consumers.

 

 

Naturally of course, Biden takes no blame:

 

 

 

 

Both of those are from 4/20. Coincidence??  

[B-Man]

 

 

 

NO PROBLEM FOR JOE BIDEN, HE’S GIVEN US PLENTY OF ALL THREE: 

 

Americans’ 3 Big Concerns Are Inflation, Immigration, and Incompetence

 

 

https://www.dailysignal.com/2022/04/21/americans-have-3-big-concerns-inflation-immigration-and-incompetence-rep-mike-johnson-says/

 

 

 

[Precision]

On 4/15/2022 at 2:54 PM, B-Man said:

Thanks Joe.

 

WaPo: Inflation about to kill off the great real-estate boom

 

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/04/15/wapo-inflation-about-to-kill-off-the-great-real-estate-boom-n462641

It won't be just the end of a boom, it's going to be a crash.

 

Prices are going to plateau (happening now) as purchasing slows due to higher payments from the higher interest rates.  Then prices are going to fall as rates go even higher and the interest payment becomes a more significant percentage of the monthly payment.  Once prices drop enough, people are going to find that they're significantly upside down on their mortgage.  Many will decide they aren't going to pay on a $600K mortgage for a house that's only worth $400K.  They're going to walk away and then, that's when prices really plummet.

 

This is all very similar to 2008 with the exception of the more stringent loan requirements now.  I don't think this crash will be nearly as bad but then again the Fed wasn't raising rates in order to fight inflation like today.

 

For a $250K mortgage, a 1% rate increase on a 30 yr fixed increases the monthly payment by almost $140.  If rates go up by 5% you're talking about an additional $700/month!

[PetermansRedemption]

39 minutes ago, Precision said:

It won't be just the end of a boom, it's going to be a crash.

 

Prices are going to plateau (happening now) as purchasing slows due to higher payments from the higher interest rates.  Then prices are going to fall as rates go even higher and the interest payment becomes a more significant percentage of the monthly payment.  Once prices drop enough, people are going to find that they're significantly upside down on their mortgage.  Many will decide they aren't going to pay on a $600K mortgage for a house that's only worth $400K.  They're going to walk away and then, that's when prices really plummet.

 

This is all very similar to 2008 with the exception of the more stringent loan requirements now.  I don't think this crash will be nearly as bad but then again the Fed wasn't raising rates in order to fight inflation like today.

 

For a $250K mortgage, a 1% rate increase on a 30 yr fixed increases the monthly payment by almost $140.  If rates go up by 5% you're talking about an additional $700/month!

I’m not sure I agree here. IMO housing is a supply problem that is going to take years to correct. Interest rates rising might push some out of the market, but your not going to see a crash like 2008, or really any crash at all. In fact, what higher interest rates will do is keep people in their houses longer. Someone with a 3% interest rate probably isn’t in a hurry to buy a new house at 5-6%.  
 

I really don’t think many people look at their home equity and go “screw it, might as well stop paying and go back to renting”. That seems to be what your crash theory is based upon, people willingly walking away. 2008 was different, people were getting loans they couldn’t afford. They had no choice but to walk away. 
 

You will see some slight cooling in the market for sure. You’ll only get a couple bidders instead of ten bidders. You might get asking price instead of 10-20% over. But we are a long, long way away from a housing crash. 

[Precision]

2 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’m not sure I agree here. IMO housing is a supply problem that is going to take years to correct. Interest rates rising might push some out of the market, but your not going to see a crash like 2008, or really any crash at all. In fact, what higher interest rates will do is keep people in their houses longer. Someone with a 3% interest rate probably isn’t in a hurry to buy a new house at 5-6%.  
 

I really don’t think many people look at their home equity and go “screw it, might as well stop paying and go back to renting”. That seems to be what your crash theory is based upon, people willingly walking away. 2008 was different, people were getting loans they couldn’t afford. They had no choice but to walk away. 
 

You will see some slight cooling in the market for sure. You’ll only get a couple bidders instead of ten bidders. You might get asking price instead of 10-20% over. But we are a long, long way away from a housing crash. 

Happened all the time in '08.  I knew multiple people that sent their keys back to the bank because they wouldn't pay for an asset that depreciated over 30%.  They called it, "jingle mail".  These were engineers with good paying jobs, they could afford the house but refused to pay for their purchasing mistake for 30 years.  

 

Will it be as bad as '08?  I don't know but real estate has appreciated too quickly for too long.  I feel the market has peaked so I pulled a lot of cash from the market in the fall to purchase the right property.  We'll see what happens, I've been right and wrong but I've made enough where it isn't an issue.  My money is on fall '23 as I think it will take that long for rates to hurt prices and the recession to be full swing. 

 

Below is a graph from Fannie Mae that shows growth slowing dramatically.   

 

[ALF]

This is making the supply chain worse

 

Shanghai escalates Covid lockdown restrictions

 

Authorities in Shanghai have said they will tighten the enforcement of lockdown measures, as a Covid surge continues in China's financial capital.

New measures include placing electronic door alarms to prevent those infected from leaving, as well as evacuating people to disinfect their homes.

Earlier this week, hundreds were forcibly evacuated from their homes to allow for buildings to be disinfected.

The restrictions will take Shanghai's lockdown into its fifth week.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61137649

[PetermansRedemption]

13 hours ago, Precision said:

Happened all the time in '08.  I knew multiple people that sent their keys back to the bank because they wouldn't pay for an asset that depreciated over 30%.  They called it, "jingle mail".  These were engineers with good paying jobs, they could afford the house but refused to pay for their purchasing mistake for 30 years.  

 

Will it be as bad as '08?  I don't know but real estate has appreciated too quickly for too long.  I feel the market has peaked so I pulled a lot of cash from the market in the fall to purchase the right property.  We'll see what happens, I've been right and wrong but I've made enough where it isn't an issue.  My money is on fall '23 as I think it will take that long for rates to hurt prices and the recession to be full swing. 

 

Below is a graph from Fannie Mae that shows growth slowing dramatically.   

 

Excellent analysis, I appreciate the response. Always love to hear perspectives from people with knowledge of the subject. 

[Precision]

7 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Excellent analysis, I appreciate the response. Always love to hear perspectives from people with knowledge of the subject. 

Thanks, not sure I'm knowledgeable but '08 left an indelible mark on me.  Save my response and please harass me to no end if my fall '23 guess is wrong!

 

Here's my scary story from the '08 crash....

 

I was at one of my daughter's friend's birthday parties.  It was the typical thing where the kids bowl, the moms gossip and the dads drink beer. 

 

Well, the dads were hanging out and a one of them, Steve rushes in late with his wife and daughter.  Of course, we have to give him a hard time and he says he was working all day, on a Saturday.  Well Steve works for the propane company so that just opens up more jokes because really why would a propane guy be working late on a Saturday?   

 

Steve gets all serious and quiet and says "it's the banks".  Now we're really laughing because well at least it wasn't aliens!  Steve is even more serious and says "I'm not supposed to say this but I'm working overtime because the banks are winterizing the houses they're stuck with.  They can't sell them so they're being winterized and I'm working more hours to shut off the propane to the houses."  We're all like well that's great Steve but he interrupts us and said something to the effect "I'm talking about hundreds of properties, hundreds.  More than that in MA.  The whole real estate market, the whole economy is done.  You need to get ready so you can protect your families."  At this point Steve is visible upset, like almost in tears upset.  There wasn't any more joking in the dad corner after that.

 

When I got home my wife and I talked about what happened.  The crash was in the news but we live in Southern NH so felt safe and there wasn't much reporting regarding New England.  It was a difficult conversation because the outcome was that we cancelled a vacation and made cutbacks elsewhere.  Tried to hoard cash (I even thought about buying MRE's) but you can only do so much so fast.   Steve was right, the crash came to New England albeit less than other places.  In retrospect the crash did not impact us as our jobs were secure so we were ok.  

 

Even now when I relive that day, replay that conversation in my head it bothers me.

[thenorthremembers]

Paid $310 dollars for groceries this week.  Thats up $110 dollars from the usual.   Gas is double what I paid under Trump, and somehow people keep voting democrat.

[ALF]

37 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Paid $310 dollars for groceries this week.  Thats up $110 dollars from the usual.   Gas is double what I paid under Trump, and somehow people keep voting democrat.

 

Covid destroyed the world economy . Massive retirements due to it , schools closed parent had to stay home , daycare no workers ,supply chain collapse. 

 

Too much stimulus causing inflation , Buttigieg not qualified to deal with supply chain lack of drivers. Starting in Nov not too many voters happy with democrats , Biden and progressives (and far right) not being realistic. Not going for energy independence till alternatives are in place is crazy. Afghanistan pullout another disaster. No I'm not happy with Biden and I switched to Democrat for the first time after Jan 6 

[thenorthremembers]

4 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

Covid destroyed the world economy . Massive retirements due to it , schools closed parent had to stay home , daycare no workers ,supply chain collapse. 

 

Too much stimulus causing inflation , Buttigieg not qualified to deal with supply chain lack of drivers. Starting in Nov not too many voters happy with democrats , Biden and progressives (and far right) not being realistic. Not going for energy independence till alternatives are in place is crazy. Afghanistan pullout another disaster. No I'm not happy with Biden and I switched to Democrat for the first time after Jan 6 

I was a democrat until after Obamas second term.   Politicians allowed COVID to destroy the economy.  Completely agree on the energy alternative.    The plan makes no sense and the gas hike is a ploy to try and sell eletric cars.  Sick to death of out of touch millionares who have never worked a job a day in their lives dictating everyday life.

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ALF]

wow

Chicago O'Hare International Airport was for decades the world's busiest airport, but became notorious for congestion and poor customer satisfaction. A new $8.5 billion makeover is set to transform this huge Midwestern hub.

 

Future of cruising
Disney Wish Tower Suite: The stunning Wish Tower Suite will debut on the Disney Wish this summer. Though prices will vary depending on the length of the trip, rates per cruise start from $21,000 for two adults.

 

Our new Monthly Ticket series continued this week with a look at the world's most incredible cruise ship cabins. We're talking $200,000 mattresses, cashmere bedding, hot tubs, in-suite slides and TVs so large they're home cinema level.

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/pandemic-travel-news-mask-mandate-tourist-tax/index.html

[Doc]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

Covid destroyed the world economy . Massive retirements due to it , schools closed parent had to stay home , daycare no workers ,supply chain collapse. 

 

Too much stimulus causing inflation , Buttigieg not qualified to deal with supply chain lack of drivers. Starting in Nov not too many voters happy with democrats , Biden and progressives (and far right) not being realistic. Not going for energy independence till alternatives are in place is crazy. Afghanistan pullout another disaster. No I'm not happy with Biden and I switched to Democrat for the first time after Jan 6 

[Irv]

What a mess.  

[Big Blitz]

Notice how the "report" doesn’t say something like "Economic data blow to Biden Administration."  You know, like you would have seen during the Trump administration.  

 

Or "Biden Economy abysmal - doesn't even account for recent surge in energy costs - worst yet to come."

 

Or "Recovery Summer Part VII Looks bleak as Biden scrambles to avoid mid term disaster."

 

Or "Democrat hopes in November delivered another crushing blow based on latest economic report."   

 

 

State Run media.  Lol at "lack of government hand outs to blame" to.  Hilarious.  You don't have an economy if it's this reliant on spending for growth.  And "Masking a broader recovery."  What a freaking joke these people are.

 

 

 

G.D.P. Report Shows the U.S. Economy Shrank, Masking a Broader Recovery

 

 

The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of the year, but strong consumer spending and continued business investment suggested that the recovery remained resilient.

 

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, declined 0.4 percent in the first quarter, or 1.4 percent on an annualized basis, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was down sharply from the 1.7 percent growth (6.9 percent annualized) in the final three months of 2021, and was the weakest quarter since the early days of the pandemic.

 

The decline was mostly a result of the two most volatile components of the quarterly reports: inventories and international trade. Lower government spending was also a drag on growth. Measures of underlying demand showed solid growth.

 

Most important, consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy, grew 0.7 percent in the first quarter despite the Omicron wave of the coronavirus, which restrained spending on restaurants, travel and similar services in January.

 

“Consumer spending is the aircraft carrier in the middle of the ocean — it just keeps plowing ahead,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo.

 

But choppy waters may lie ahead. The first-quarter data mostly predates the spike in gas prices that has accompanied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the lockdowns in China that have threatened to further disrupt global supply chains. The Federal Reserve in March raised interest rates for the first time since the pandemic began, and several more rate increases are expected this year as policymakers seek to tame the fastest inflation in four decades.

 

“We are watching a bunch of seismic changes in real time,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/business/economy/us-gdp-q1-2022.html?smid=url-copy

 

 

"A bunch of seismic changes."  All bad...we're just gonna keep carrying Brandon's water for him and tell you everything is awesome.

 

And inflation - Russia and China's fault!

Edited April 28, 2022 by Big Blitz

[Big Blitz]

UNEXPECTEDLY!!

 

 

The US economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter for the first time since the pandemic crash

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gdp-q1-economic-growth-inflation-omicron-wave-coronavirus-recovery-2022-4

[B-Man]

 

[Big Blitz]

More from State Run News!

 

NO RECESSION!!!

 

 

 

Did the U.S. economy really shrink in early 2022? Is a recession near?  No, and here’s why

 

The surprising contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter has been written off by Wall Street as a misleadingly weak number that in no way signals an oncoming recession.

 

So how well did the economy really perform?

 

Not bad, it seems. Maybe even pretty good, economists say.

 

“The first quarter was not as bad as it looks at first glance,” said chief economist Bill Adams of Comerica Bank in Toledo, Ohio.

 

A better way to assess the economy’s performance, economists say, is to look at final sales to U.S. customers. Simply put, the measure strips out exports and inventories and focuses on how much stuff Americans are buying from U.S. and foreign sellers.

 

Can the good times last?  YES THEY ACTUALLY WROTE THAT!

 

Economists predict GDP will accelerate to a 2% clip in the second quarter, but as always, the devil will be in the details. The U.S. could be facing tougher times with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and more turbulence overseas.

 

https://on.mktw.net/3KuFCkF

 

 

Freaking Stupid Federal Resrve.  And Russia!