Precision

Everyone talks about the looming electricity demand due to the push for EV's. Most people don't understand that crypto and AI requires large server farms that consume a great deal of electricity. The US has failed in both the distribution and generation of electricity to even keep up with current demand. As such, I believe some of these farms will move overseas but a large number (especially AI) will still be in the US. When it gets to the point of rolling blackouts who do you think will get priority for electricity, the consumers with their EV's or the tech industry with their server farms? There you go. Below is an interesting article (surprisingly from Wapo) that discuss the upcoming surge in demand. Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power "Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation’s creaking power grid. In Georgia, demand for industrial power is surging to record highs, with the projection of new electricity use for the next decade now 17 times what it was only recently. "

Funny how many of the states below are net importers of electricity. I suspect that as demand increases with the transition to EV's, the importing states will be paying a premium for electricity. 8 states are planning to BAN the sale of gas-powered cars entirely - after Biden unveiled ambitious plans to phase them out by 2032 "According to personal finance site Money, California was the first state to adopt the Advanced Clean Cars II rule, which will put a complete ban to new sales of gas-powered cars by 2035. Rhode Island was the most recent state to join the list of states pledging to ban the sale of gas-powered cars, joining Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. According to the site, the District of Columbia has also made the commitment. "

I think your categorization is broad and I expect most consumers of the news access content based on the subject matter that interests them. I expect you are probably referring to "political news" but I will respond as if you are not. I read the local paper (on-line addition) and watch local channels for weather and stories in my area. For international content I might watch a US MSM outlet or the BBC. For sports it varies on the team/sport. I read the WSJ for the financial content and participate in a few message boards for that as well. For politics I will go to a few websites/message boards as I find the content and discussions are more in depth than can be offered by any of the above sources. Additionally, most of the above content is a one-way feed from the source to the consumer which I find as mentally stimulating as watching SpongeBob.

I'm sure the victims' families think it's hilarious.

You are a great spokesman for the Palestinians. Most people on this board have some empathy for them, but you pretty much kill that as you come across as the stereotypical Islamist nut. I guess you had the night off from sitting on Jeff Dunham's lap? I do not know about open air prisons or the other items you mentioned as my ancestors were too intelligent to be herded around like cattle. Then again, my ancestors probably would have been smart enough to not get kicked out of Kuwait, Jordan and Lebanon. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone as Palestinians have an average IQ in the low 80's with the among highest sanguinity rates in the world. It's hard to believe that in the year 2024 over 20% of Palestinians marry first cousins and roughly 40% marry other relatives. It's no wonder that Egypt has closed its border with Gaza and the sane parts of the Arab world has turned its back on Gaza. Tell me, do you feel you have a low IQ because you are inbred, or do you inbreed because of a low IQ? Just a public service announcement for you, name calling indicates a lack of intellect, you would come across better if you omitted that. Regarding being a dumbass, I have 3 degrees (BSEE, MSEE and MBA) from good schools in MA. My self-made net worth is within the top 2% of the US. I don't work anymore as I can comfortably live off my investments. When I did work, I was a Director of Engineering, supervising engineers from some of the top engineering schools in the world. I'm sure you have trouble relating as FL is one of the dumbest states in the US (38th in IQ) unlike my area (MA is 1st and NH is 2nd). I would imagine a lot of Palestinians live in FL as we have few of them here. Have a great day working today, champ.

Link below is from an hour ago. Hard to argue with the Israeli response when 70% Palestinians in Gaza still support the October 7th attack. As 'gaps narrow' in truce talks, most Palestinians now want Hamas in charge: "More than 70% of Palestinians support Hamas’ decision to launch the Oct. 7 offensive into Israel that started the war, and 59% of them want Hamas to control the Gaza Strip when the war is over, according to a new survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. Only 27% of Palestinians would prefer control by any version of the Palestinian Authority, a plan backed by the Biden administration."

Looks like residents' satisfaction with NYC's quality of life is falling. New Yorkers say city and its subway is getting worse and more dangerous, complaining of bungling by Eric Adams' administration as millions plan an exit strategy.

A cost of $387 per day for 65K migrant households works out to a little over $9 billion per year. For context, NYC's annual budget is $100 billion, NYS is $220 billion, Erie County is $2.2 billion, and Buffalo's is $550 million. With the amount of money being spent in NYC on migrants you could have built 5 new Bills stadiums (at $1.7 billion each). NYC spending $387 per migrant each day as Mayor Eric Adams tries to slash spending amid influx of nearly 65K "New York City is forking out an average of $387 per day to put up a single migrant household in taxpayer-funded shelters, the latest data from City Hall show. That number — known as the “cumulative per diem” — is the average of what the city has spent to house and feed each migrant household per day every month since the start of the crisis in spring 2022." "City Hall has pegged the decline on cost-cutting measures implemented by Mayor Eric Adams’ administration to combat the crisis that’s forecast to set the Big Apple back $10 billion through next fiscal year."

There are certainly kids that cannot grasp the subject matter but currently 20% of students are chronically absent (missing 15+ days of school in a year). Even the smart kids will have difficulties if they don't make it into the classroom. Much of the blame regarding this can be pinned on the parent(s) who either don't know or care about the child's participation in school. Most schools provide the means (through applications like PowerSchool, Canvas, etc) to monitor a student's attendance, grades and homework assignments daily. There's no excuse for not opening an app on your phone once in a while to check on your child. The other problem with parents is they are not holding their children accountable for achievement (or lack thereof). They would rather their child "be a friend" than perform the duties of a parent. I was difficult with both of my kids, checking on their grades/attendance/etc. weekly and setting expectations for what I considered acceptable results. They are both doing well, and I would like to think I had something to do with it.

Agreed, I think the last 4 years have been tough on a number of people especially with the historically high inflation rate!

Yes, I am better off than 4 years ago. As an example. in the spring of 2020, the S&P500 was a little under 3000 whereas now it is over 5000. That is roughly a 65% return over those 4 years, my portfolio exceeded that. The 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020 timeframes provided similar returns under different administrations. In both instances, I was better off "now" than 4 years earlier.

Federal government payrolls continue to increase and make up a large component of the monthly job gains. Most private companies have become more efficient over time through computing, software and automation but not the federal government. Federal employees over time

They should shut it down and merge it with Orchard Park. Once it's empty turn it into a migrant shelter.

I would argue that there is a large difference between Ukraine (a stable state at war) and Haiti (a failed state). Regarding Haiti The US is sending roughly $200 million dollars/year in aid. The close proximity of Haiti makes it strategically important to the US. The crime, refugee crisis and economic issues will disproportionally impact the US more than any other first world country. No one other than the US will take responsibility for stabilizing Haiti. Haiti is a failed state, so a fairly easy goal is just to support and backstop a semi-functioning government. Regarding Ukraine The US has sent roughly $75 billion dollars in aid. Like it or not Ukraine has been historically linked with Russia. The war disproportionately impacts Ukraine's neighbors in the EU. The EU countries have the economic ability to fund Ukraine if they so choose. There may not be a path to success in Ukraine no matter how much aid or arms anyone provides. The above probably sounds like I am rooting against Ukraine but it's just the opposite. Unfortunately, if Russia chooses to defeat Ukraine at any cost there is little the west can do with the exception of getting involved directly. Even then I question the west's resolve to absorb tens or hundreds of thousands of casualties. Roughly 80 years ago in WW2 the Soviet Union suffered 24 million deaths so there is no question regarding their resolve to sustain losses. Your point regarding "turning our backs" is valid and every administration needs to decide that if the US gets involved internationally then it needs to make a long-term commitment. Stabilizing Haiti is an easy call and something that should have occurred long before now. Ukraine is a much more difficult conversation and a question I would ask is that if you look at your children would you be willing to give one up for Ukraine?

Governing for dummies Chapter 1 - You do not allow a state to fail in close proximity to your borders for a few reasons. First, a failed state is never a peaceful affair and the gangs that are a problem now will evolve into "warlord" controlled crime structures much like in Somalia. These "warlords" will be a much larger threat to the US and its neighbors as the criminal activity will spillover to surrounding countries. Second, the violence from a failed state will create a refugee crisis. These refugees will be running for their lives and not merely seeking economic opportunity. In this case the US will have a moral obligation to admit these refugees as there will be no dispute regarding their status as asylum seekers. There are currently 730,000 Haitians who have migrated to the US, now you can expect that number to increase dramatically. Haitian Immigrants in the United States Third, a failed state will create economic issues for its neighbors and trading partners. Trade with Haiti will fall, and the parties impacted will need to adjust accordingly (the US has roughly $1-2 billion dollars in trade with Haiti). A failed Haiti will create an economic "dead zone" as trade, tourism and development will avoid an unstable geographic area which will harm its immediate neighbors. Fourth, the financial cost of such a large number of refugees is staggering. As an example, if we look at the current 730,000 Haitian migrants and assume only half require financial assistance, at $2,200/month for each family (let's assume a family of 4) you're talking yearly federal expenditures of ((730,000/2)/4) x 12 which is a little over $1 billion dollars. This neglects the state and local expenses incurred. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but there is no "giving Cuba to Putin". Cuba has been aligned with the Soviet Union/Russia since roughly 1960. Also, as much as every American might dislike the current government of Cuba it is far from a "failed state". Failed state index - 2023

Bravo, bravo, another foreign policy failure by the administration in a country less than 1000 miles from America's border. Now that Haiti is a failed state the administration is finally waking up to the urgency of the situation. Unfortunately, the time to intervene was long before armed gangs controlled the country. Once again, the administrations lack of foresight mirrors the mental acuity of the president. The fall of Haiti was no surprise as there were warning such as (to name just a few from 2023): April of 2023 - UN warns of historic violence in Haiti and need for intervention. July of 2023 - US State Department evacuated non-emergency personnel from the country. August of 2023 - US State Department advised Americans to leave Haiti. November 2023 - UN report released regarding increasing gang violence and the need for a multinational peacekeeping force. None of these events motivated the Biden administration to take action, deciding to wait until Haiti fell into total chaos rather than assist a semi-functioning government. Now, Americans will reap the benefits of that decision with millions of dollars going to Haiti, Haitian migrants coming to the US and inevitably dead US soldiers. Biden will undoubtedly tout the late US response as a "victory" with no thought given to the carnage he left behind. Per the UN report in November 2023 regarding the violence "more than 3,000 people dead along with thousands of others who were injured or victims of kidnappings."

Olean, where the heck are they going to put them? In some of the vacant stores in the mini-mall? This is absurd dumping a bus full of migrants into a depressed town with a population of around 13,000. You might as well just unload them at a rest area.

Democratic donor and PSU professor being charged with additional acts of lewdness. So is the Democrats defense "why does bestiality bother you....." ? Penn State professor who begged cops to kill him when he was busted in bestiality case is hit with new charges of lewd acts in park "Published Feb. 14, 2024 - An award-winning Penn State professor arrested in a sickening bestiality case faces more charges after videos emerged of him allegedly engaged in lewd acts in a park — including inserting a tree branch and lollipop in his butt. Themis Matsoukas, 64, was already facing charges of open lewdness, indecent exposure, sexual intercourse with an animal and animal cruelty after police said he’d been seen on video involved in sexual acts with a pet collie. The chemical engineering professor begged troopers to kill him — while saying the sex acts helped him “blow off steam,” according to an initial criminal complaint in June. Matsoukas has now been hit with an additional batch of similar charges for other alleged acts from 55 videos found on his electronic devices seized on a search warrant..."

There might be a "war" on whiteness in an attempt to redistribute wealth, but it is not working. Over the past 50 years blacks have fallen behind whites with respect to "family wealth" with Hispanics making limited gains. Today over 80% of the wealth in the US is held by whites. This is at a time when the country is more diverse than ever in its history AND racism is generally considered at its lowest level in history. IMO there are a couple of reasons for this. First, wealth is generally "sticky". Families with money usually hand that wealth to their children and so on through the generations. Even the most aggressive legislation is not going to be able to redistribute that wealth. Second, there are cultural problems working against minorities that the government cannot control such as: The number of single parent homes The number of children per unwed woman The number of adolescents who have committed a crime Even if the first issue could be solved, the second issue is impacting both current and future generations of minorities. Given the current cultural trends I expect the wealth gap to increase. This discussion reminds me of a movie quote (for those who think whites are losing a race war), from the "Good Sheppard". “- Joseph Palmi: Let me ask you something... we Italians, we got our families, and we got the church; the Irish, they have the homeland, Jews their tradition; even the blacks, they got their music. What about your people, Mr. Wilson, what do you have? - Edward Wilson: The United States of America. The rest of you are just visiting.”

New York Mayor Distraught as Remington Leaves Home of 208 Years for Southern State of Georgia

I guess Toyota was right to focus on hybrid's over EV's. I know some here will be shocked, ha ha ha. Biden's lofty EV requirements might not survive the election year EPA's aggressive EV requirements are likely to ease up, according to reports. Automakers wouldn't have to reach 60% EV production by 2030 under revised rules. EV demand has softened significantly in the past six months. The automotive industry was once split on the path forward for electric vehicles, with one camp seeking to skip plug-in hybrids and focus solely on pure electrics while the other focused on hybrids as a near-term technology bridge with more EVs down the road. The EPA's revised requirements would support the hybrid approach, which is gaining momentum after a recent move from GM to bring hybrids to North America.

Climate Action 100+ lost key members last week, more to likely follow. BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and State Street are quitting or scaling back their ties to an influential global investment coalition "Climate hawks have long questioned the financial industry’s commitment to sustainable investing. But few foresaw JPMorgan Chase and State Street quitting Climate Action 100+, a global investment coalition that has been pushing companies to decarbonize. Meanwhile, BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, scaled back its ties to the group. All told, the moves amount to a nearly $14 trillion exit from an organization meant to marshal Wall Street’s clout to expand the climate agenda." Bond manager PIMCO withdraws from Climate Action 100+ investor coalition

No one can predict the market on a daily basis, but it historically has repeated itself around events such as recessions. It's unfortunate that you are unaware of this phenomenon. My advisor and the people with whom I discuss investing consider it common knowledge. Even annually the market tends to repeat itself around holidays and seasons (hence the term "sell in May and go away"). I'm sure many will disagree but that's ok. Then again, due to my investing prowess I'm the one in my 50's who is retired while most of those who would disagree are not. Here are a couple of references as requested. Visualizing 60 Years of Stock Market Cycles "In many cases, stock market peaks happen before a recession begins. Consider how in 2007, the S&P 500 hit a high in October before the recession officially began in December. Similarly, the S&P 500 peaked in September 2000, six months before the 2001 recession officially started." What to Expect in a Bear Market for Global Stocks "Stocks peak about six months (26 weeks) ahead of the start of the recession. Stocks bottom about a year after the recession starts. After bottoming, stocks take about 3.5 years to return to near their prior peak."

Markets typically peak immediately prior to a recession (see below). The general consensus is that a recession or "soft landing" will occur in the Q2/Q3 timeframe of this year. The rise in markets was due to more confirmation of the upcoming recession (retail sales data) and the subsequent cut to interest rates.

This was the prediction for snow 24 hours in advance of the "storm" on Tuesday. We should have received 5"-9" based on our location but did not get a single flake! I was outside Tuesday working on the tractor in preparation for the storm and all we had were cloudy skies. I hope these aren't the same satellites and computer simulations they are using for their climate change models. Embarrassing that they were so inaccurate a mere 24 hours in advance!