Reich's fourth down call was not as bad as it first appears.....

[Billsfan1972]

A TD makes it a 2 score game.  Maybe the third down call was wrong, but going for it on fourth wasn't.

 

Score and it is 17-7, they kick & Bills probably are at the 25 or better with still 1:55 to get it to 17-10 or 17-14.    

 

They miss on 4th and the Bills need to go 96 yards!!!!

 

The Colts could have gotten another 3 & out and are pretty much in FG position with a 45 yard net punt.

 

Josh made play after play (a lucky 4th down penalty) and a play overturned (very much the right call).

 

Like playing KC, you win with td's, not FG's.

 

Hindsight is 20/20.....  But it was not a bad call.

 

Oh and it would have been an all time catch if Indy did score a TD as it was no where near catchable. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[Doc]

I thought it was a great call.  😄

[US Egg]

The Colts game is officially history.

 

.....just saying. 😁

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I'd assume at that point  and all game planning was based on thought that Indy would need to score alot of points to beat us.  So better go for it here, plus less than 2 minutes left for us to do anything with.  Did we even use a TO on that drive?

Edited January 11, 2021 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

A TD makes it a 2 score game.  Maybe the third down call was wrong, but going fdor it on fourth wasn't.

 

Score and it is 17-7, they kick & Bills probably are at the 25 or better with still 1:55 to get it to 17-10 or 17-14.    

 

They miss on 4th and the Bills need to go 96 yards!!!!

 

The Colts could have gotten another 3 & out and are pretty much in FG position with a 45 yard net punt.

 

Josh made play after play (a lucky 4th down penalty) and a play overturned (very much the right call).

 

Like playing KC, you win with td's, not FG's.

 

Hindsight is 20/20.....  But it was not a bad call.

 

Oh and it would have been an all time catch if Indy did score a TD as it was no where near catchable. 

 

If you thought you might go on 4th, you gotta run your brissett package on 3rd down.  Or pass on 3rd.  You can't lose yards there.

Edited January 11, 2021 by dneveu

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

If you thought you might go on 4th, you gotta run your brissett package on 3rd down.  Or pass on 3rd.  You can't lose yards there.

 

In his postgame presser, Reich expressed their (presnap) confidence "we really thought that would be a walk-in touchdown for us". 

Taron Johnson said "Not This Day!"

 

That was just a great defensive series.  I can't really fault Reich for his decisions.  They made sense in terms of analytics and the flow of the game.  Our D just delivered.

 

 

[Beast]

Beside being scared of every team north of the equator, now you are making excuses for them.

 

We can hardly wait for your next doozy of a take.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Beast

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, Beast said:

Beside being scared of every team north of the equator, now you are making excuses for them.

 

We can hardly wait for your next doozy of a take.

Who was I scared of?  I simply said I wanted the Bills off the schneid and that I likened it somewhat to how the Ravens were cruising last year.

 

I even said it had nothing to do "per se" with Indy.

 

Find me one post that I even broke down Indy or claimed I was worried about them or anyone for that matter. 

 

My concerns are internal (and sometimes the coaching).

 

As per the thread, explain my "flawed" logic?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Unless the game situation says otherwise I would probably go for every 4th down and 5 or less as long as I'm in my opponents territory. 

[mjt328]

I hate when fans/media criticize calls like this... but only when they have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

How many of these critics were screaming how "bad" the 4th Down decision was BEFORE they missed it?  Probably very few.

 

Mike Tomlin played it safe last night with a 4th Down punt.  That play ended up killing Pittsburgh's momentum, and ultimately allowed Cleveland to ice the game.  Now he's getting roasted for it.  But the same people would have blasted Tomlin if he went for it and failed to convert.

 

 

[Doc]

Just now, mjt328 said:

I hate when fans/media criticize calls like this... but only when they have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

How many of these critics were screaming how "bad" the 4th Down decision was BEFORE they missed it?  Probably very few.

 

Mike Tomlin played it safe last night with a 4th Down punt.  That play ended up killing Pittsburgh's momentum, and ultimately allowed Cleveland to ice the game.  Now he's getting roasted for it.  But the same people would have blasted Tomlin if he went for it and failed to convert.

 

Doubtful.  Being down that much, needing just a yard and close to mid-field, it was a gutless call.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I'm sure the analytics say that it was the right call with something like a 55% or 60% edge.  Here's why I think it was wrong - it was an aggressive call that didn't jibe with the rest of Reich's functionally passive strategy. 

 

The Colts' strategy was essentially "Possess the ball for 35-40 minutes, score the points we can, maintain a lead and force 1 or 2 critical mistakes."  I mean they were literally having Rivers run the play clock down to 0 in the first half.  I'd never seen anything like that.  And the thing was, up to the point where Reich made that decision their plan was going perfectly.  You can't say no to free points when that's your strategy and you have the lead.  If they had gone with "Burn the ships and try to outscore them, the odds be damned" going for it obviously would have made sense.  

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

A TD makes it a 2 score game.  Maybe the third down call was wrong, but going for it on fourth wasn't.

 

Score and it is 17-7, they kick & Bills probably are at the 25 or better with still 1:55 to get it to 17-10 or 17-14.    

 

They miss on 4th and the Bills need to go 96 yards!!!!

 

The Colts could have gotten another 3 & out and are pretty much in FG position with a 45 yard net punt.

 

Josh made play after play (a lucky 4th down penalty) and a play overturned (very much the right call).

 

Like playing KC, you win with td's, not FG's.

 

Hindsight is 20/20.....  But it was not a bad call.

 

Oh and it would have been an all time catch if Indy did score a TD as it was no where near catchable. 

 

The flaw was in their thinking the Bills couldn't go 96 yards in that time.

[CA OC Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The flaw was in their thinking the Bills couldn't go 96 yards in that time.

I agree. The Bills had horrible field position all half and did nothing with it (except for the 85 yard drive which happened to be the best field position they had all half). I'm sure they expected to score a TD here and if not then the Bills wouldn't be able to do much. As the OP said, Reich also probably believed if they didn't score they'd even get the ball back. If they do score, either a TD or a FG, then there's a good chance the Bills will finally get good starting field position. The entire playbook would be open to the Bills with 105 seconds left. Better to have 7 points before giving us the ball back than 3. Here's the possibilities of what would happen in those last 105 seconds (110 seconds at that point - and yes, I know this is obvious). I suspect the last option at the bottom, the one that happened, they felt was least likely if they went for it.

Scenario, Colts - Bills score	Colts Points	Bills Points
They score TD/We don't score, Score 17-7	7	0
They score TD/We get a FG, 17-10	7	3
They score TD/We get a TD, 17-14	7	7
They score a FG/We don't score, 13-7	3	0
They score a FG/We get a FG, 13-10	3	3
They score a FG/We get a TD, 13-14	3	7
They don't score/We don't score, 10-7	0	0
They don't score/We get a FG, 10-10	0	3
They don't score/We get a TD, 10-14	0	7

 

[Billsfan1972]

Exactly.  What are the odds going 96 yards in 105 seconds?  Btw they threw an incompletion on 1st down and then Allen was flushed and threw the rope along the sidelines to Davis, which was just incredible.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

A TD makes it a 2 score game.  Maybe the third down call was wrong, but going for it on fourth wasn't.

 

Score and it is 17-7, they kick & Bills probably are at the 25 or better with still 1:55 to get it to 17-10 or 17-14.    

 

They miss on 4th and the Bills need to go 96 yards!!!!

 

The Colts could have gotten another 3 & out and are pretty much in FG position with a 45 yard net punt.

 

Josh made play after play (a lucky 4th down penalty) and a play overturned (very much the right call).

 

Like playing KC, you win with td's, not FG's.

 

Hindsight is 20/20.....  But it was not a bad call.

 

Oh and it would have been an all time catch if Indy did score a TD as it was no where near catchable. 

For us it was a great call, for the Colts, not so much.

 

[Orlando Tim]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

A TD makes it a 2 score game.  Maybe the third down call was wrong, but going for it on fourth wasn't.

 

Score and it is 17-7, they kick & Bills probably are at the 25 or better with still 1:55 to get it to 17-10 or 17-14.    

 

They miss on 4th and the Bills need to go 96 yards!!!!

 

The Colts could have gotten another 3 & out and are pretty much in FG position with a 45 yard net punt.

 

Josh made play after play (a lucky 4th down penalty) and a play overturned (very much the right call).

 

Like playing KC, you win with td's, not FG's.

 

Hindsight is 20/20.....  But it was not a bad call.

 

Oh and it would have been an all time catch if Indy did score a TD as it was no where near catchable. 

I said it elsewhere that I think that call was heavily influenced on Josh Allen being our QB and the thought we would score 30 on the day even if we had not started doing much yet.