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glazeduck

Healthy Skepticism for This Year's Draft Class...

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Posted (edited)

A couple quick caveats to this post that hopefully provide enough context to make this a substantive conversation and not come across as simply complaining...

 

1. I'm very much in the camp of trusting Beane and McD, it's been clear to me (up to this point, anyway) that there's been a solid plan in place that they are executing.

2. My draft evaluations/judgments come from 2 places: watching the film and athletic testing

 

First created topic, here goes...

 

I love that most folks -- both on this board, as well as the broader community -- are excited about our draft. That gives me a good amount of hope with this group. That said, I have my reservations...

 

1. Love that we got Diggs. I think he's going to add a great dynamic to the offense. Hard to argue that he's not every bit as impactful as any of the rookies would've been, so job well done BB! A+

 

2. Unquestionably great value with Epenesa at the end of the 2nd. He's never going to be confused with Jevon Kearse but I think he can be a dynamic DE for a very long time. Speaking from personal biases, I would've loved to move ahead of Pittsburgh for Claypool, I loved him as a prospect and I think he would've added a dynamic that this offense is still lacking. That said, letting Epenesa fall into our laps was still a great, value-laden move -- 2/2 -- solid A

 

3. Here's where my skepticism really kicks in.  I love the way that Zach Moss runs, if the Terminator was a RB, I imagine they'd have very comparable styles. But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums. Only time will tell, but it's a concern (that builds into a larger concern, as mentioned be low)... They liked him, obviously, wanting to move up to get him, so I'll gladly be wrong here, but am nervous... Working on the theme above, would've loved to have been able to swoop in and take Mims before the Jets could've. Another big, athletic playmaker who opens up other avenues for the offense or Bryan Edwards.  Incomplete

 

4. LOVE that we went for a WR with some size here, and I love reading about Davis' work ethic, so again, I'm cautiously optimistic that this one will pan out. But he's not overly athletic, he's not explosive, he doesn't run great routes, he's never going to be possibly more than a very slight a mismatch in terms of size/speed/strength... I don't know where he wins. I heard the comment about him winning on double moves, which is interesting, but I'm not convinced that's something that can actively play into an overall strategy. Gandy Golden, either Johnson, DPJ and Coulter all felt like better bets to be impact players. Time will tell, and again, hoping for the best, but I'm afraid Davis is destined to be a career 4th or 5th wr (which, to be fair, is probably what should be expected out of a guy at the end of the 4th...). C

 

5. Not convinced Jake Fromm even makes the roster. Sure he's a great leader, sure he knows football, cool. Unless we're drafting him to groom him as our next QB coach, this felt like a wasted pick to me, especially with the veterans available in FA. D-

 

6a. K is a need, we filled it, cool. I know nothing about the kid but like that most had him as their #1 ranked K and he has a big leg. Pass

 

6b. Really torn here -- I'm married to and Oregon State Beaver so have seen this kid dominate for the past 3 years. My Ducks recruited him but decided not to take him and almost instantly regretted it. If there's going to be a poster boy for ones that can succeed despite not clearing those athletic thresholds, it's going to be Hodgins. Unlike Davis, I love Hodgins' length, body control and catch radius. You can at least see how he can be a box-out type guy like Arcega-Whiteside last year. That said, this kid is REALLY going to struggle gaining separation at the NFL level. He actually tested out better than I expected, but that's a glaring weakness in his game. I think he'll provide some interesting to the end of our roster WRs, but probably not ever be more than a 5th or 6th WR/RZ specialist. Wouldn't have taken much to move up for DPJ, who at least has a chance to turn into something... C+

 

7. It's hard and unfair to really say that a 7th rd pick is ever wasted, but I don't feel like this kid has a chance to make the roster. Frankly not sure what else I would've done, but it's uninspiring ot say the least... D+

 

In the end, they let things come to them, which I see as both good and bad.  It's what the Ravens do every year and they've been one of the most successful franchises for a very long time. It means they're continuing to build on a defensive-minded, control the ball, style offense. I like that they're in sync there and operating with one vision -- that's ULTRA RARE in pro sports. It also means that they didn't take any chances, and as such, didn't make any substantial gains (Diggs' acquisition, notwithstanding). Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Ravens -- arguably our biggest competition out in front both had huge drafts and a number of other teams stocked up on weapons as well. 

 

So I'm left with this weird feeling of not being unhappy but also not being super excited about this draft. Certainly part of it is that the Diggs trade went down a few weeks ago and we didn't get fanfare for it on Thursday. But another part of it is really questioning if we're being innovative and forward-looking enough, or if we're erring on the side of stubborn old-man football that is going the way of the Dodo. Is it healthy skepticism? Pessimistic optimism? Not sure, but I've definitely seen plenty of posts on here of folks whose expectations need to be seriously tempered...

Edited by glazeduck
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Guess we'll see in 3-4 years who is right and who is wrong. My money is on Beane.

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Posted (edited)

In all honesty there's nothing  wrong with a bit of skepticism. Not everyone is going to love the entire draft. 

 

But I do think at this point this front office has gotten itself enough respect that they deserve to not be questioned a whole lot. 

 

Beane has been great so far and its awesome being a Bills fan!

Edited by DJB
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I trust Beane. Some random thoughts:

 

0 fumbles for Moss last year and best broken tackle % of any back since 2014. Works for me.

 

your D+ rated 7th rd pick Was the 8th rated CB in the draft and his coach said he was the best CB he has ever had. I’ll take that in the 7th


Hoskins had the best 20 yd split time at the combine and the lowest drop % of any wr in college last year. Works for me

 

Fromme - who knows and the lack of a normal training camp will hurt him but he will make the roster and probably take over as backup for Barkley as backup next year. That’s good use of a 5th

 

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After the 4th round, anything you get out of the draft is a bonus.  To give Ds out on late rounders is ridiculous.  This is one of the reasons in past drafts Beane has traded up in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, because early quality is better than late quantity.  

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1 minute ago, Turbo44 said:

I trust Beane. Some random thoughts:

 

0 fumbles for Moss last year and best broken tackle % of any back since 2014. Works for me.

 

your D+ rated 7th rd pick Was the 8th rated CB in the draft and his coach said he was the best CB he has ever had. I’ll take that in the 7th


Hoskins had the best 20 yd split time at the combine and the lowest drop % of any wr in college last year. Works for me

 

Fromme - who knows and the lack of a normal training camp will hurt him but he will make the roster and probably take over as backup for Barkley as backup next year. That’s good use of a 5th

 

Firstly, appreciate you being what would appear to be the first to have read my post before responding. 

 

I definitely see the potential in Moss and again, LOVE the way he runs. I guess I just question how dynamic a backfield can be with 2 guys with avg. to below-avg. speed, hopefully all of our smurfs will stretch the defense enough to open some holes.

 

Similar with Hodgins, I'm optimistic, but I just fear he's too limited and stiff to ever really be more than a role player.

 

On Jackson, again, you can't really waste a 7th round pick, so he's worth a shot, I'm just not going to be holding my breath for him to succeed, I don't look at it as likely (although I DO like our track record of developing DBs)

 

Fromm -- I don't see it, hope you're right.

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I think it’s realistic to not expect all of the picks to hit even if I personally liked almost all of the picks. 
 

Regarding Moss though, he’s more athletic than Singletary and obviously Singletary played quite well as a rookie. 

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3 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Firstly, appreciate you being what would appear to be the first to have read my post before responding. 

 

I definitely see the potential in Moss and again, LOVE the way he runs. I guess I just question how dynamic a backfield can be with 2 guys with avg. to below-avg. speed, hopefully all of our smurfs will stretch the defense enough to open some holes.

 

Similar with Hodgins, I'm optimistic, but I just fear he's too limited and stiff to ever really be more than a role player.

 

On Jackson, again, you can't really waste a 7th round pick, so he's worth a shot, I'm just not going to be holding my breath for him to succeed, I don't look at it as likely (although I DO like our track record of developing DBs)

 

Fromm -- I don't see it, hope you're right.

Moss isnt a breakaway threat but he is faster than Singletary. He had a hamstring issue at the combine so his 4.62 time should be discounted. 4.52 at his pro day is decent. Not great but decent. 
 

Fromm, if anything, will be a good classroom guy with Josh. Georgia coaches said they regularly had to throw him out of the building late at night (studying film). 
 

i studied the draft more than usual with time on my hands, plus with no 1st I wanted to know more about the later round guys. When we were on the clock I actually predicted 3 of the first 4 picks correctly- Espenesa and moss were no brainers and I took a flyer on Fromme and got lucky. In the 4th I guessed Golden-Gandy so at least go the position correct. Was thrilled with the Hoskins pick as I thought he was a late 3rd/early 4th talent but had no clue they’d draft a 2nd wr. 

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Moss is the one I’m concerned the most with. He just looks like a CTE case to me. I don’t think he is built to take the type of pounding he puts himself through. Often times it looks like he takes a worse hit than the defenders he is trying to “punish”. I hope he can protect himself better in the pros.

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Not bad, OP...I must admit, I’m not as high on this draft class as some others seem to be...no doubt part of that likely has to do with not having a first round pick...but, just on the surface I think we did just ok...I really wanted Eason and an OT prospect...but I also understand you can only take what the board gives you...B-

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Not bad, OP...I must admit, I’m not as high on this draft class as some others seem to be...no doubt part of that likely has to do with not having a first round pick...but, just on the surface I think we did just ok...I really wanted Eason and an OT prospect...but I also understand you can only take what the board gives you...B-

  Eason looks like a bit of a meat head to me and remember he left Georgia when he lost his job to Fromme. I don’t expect him to amount to much.

 

yeah I hear you on the oline - just never seemed to have ones with good grades when we ended up picking. Maybe the UFA we signed will amount to something. I’m higher overall on our oline than most. In think a second year with continuity and a 2nd year for Ford will help a lot.

Edited by Turbo44
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I read your

14 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Firstly, appreciate you being what would appear to be the first to have read my post before responding. 

 

I definitely see the potential in Moss and again, LOVE the way he runs. I guess I just question how dynamic a backfield can be with 2 guys with avg. to below-avg. speed, hopefully all of our smurfs will stretch the defense enough to open some holes.

 

Similar with Hodgins, I'm optimistic, but I just fear he's too limited and stiff to ever really be more than a role player.

 

On Jackson, again, you can't really waste a 7th round pick, so he's worth a shot, I'm just not going to be holding my breath for him to succeed, I don't look at it as likely (although I DO like our track record of developing DBs)

 

Fromm -- I don't see it, hope you're right.

post.  Now I’m responding. 
🚽

 

moss will be a beast.  Don’t worry.  You state “But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums”. 
In other words, you have no idea wth you’re talking about.  You saw in a scouting report someone say that he’s slow.....after hurting his hamstring and still running faster than Singletary.  
 

Hodgins is a 6th rd pick.  Considering he’s a 6th rd pick, I think he has considerable upside for where he was picked.  Josh allen rifles the ball.  Many WRs have problems catching his passes from what I’ve seen.  Hodgins might have the best hands in the draft.  He’s tall. He is a great red zone target, especially vs certain matchups.  Again.....he’s a 6th rd pick.

 

jackson is likely a nickel back for us. And he’s a solid tackles. Taron johnson is the only corner considered and “inside corner”.  Taron johnson is always banged up. Jackson is a perfect candidate for the PS and to bring up if Jonson gets hurt.  This is FAR from a terrible pick......and it’s the 7th round!!  You really know nothing about him, but give him a D+......

 

......and you give the kicker, ranked by most as the best kicker in the draft, an incomplete, because you know nothing about him.....EXCEPT THAT HE’S THE NUMBER ONE KICKER IN THE DRAFT.  Wow.

 

Fromm-  you don’t like him.  Not sure what you don’t like about him, because you didn’t say anything about him.  Because you don’t know anything about him. You read he has a weak arm.  Cool.
 

Doesn’t seem like you know much about any of these guys tbh

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1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I read your

post.  Now I’m responding. 
🚽

 

moss will be a beast.  Don’t worry.  You state “But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums”. 
In other words, you have no idea wth you’re talking about.  You saw in a scouting report someone say that he’s slow.....after hurting his hamstring and still running faster than Singletary.  
 

Hodgins is a 6th rd pick.  Considering he’s a 6th rd pick, I think he has considerable upside for where he was picked.  Josh allen rifles the ball.  Many WRs have problems catching his passes from what I’ve seen.  Hodgins might have the best hands in the draft.  He’s tall. He is a great red zone target, especially vs certain matchups.  Again.....he’s a 6th rd pick.

 

jackson is likely a nickel back for us. And he’s a solid tackles. Taron johnson is the only corner considered and “inside corner”.  Taron johnson is always banged up. Jackson is a perfect candidate for the PS and to bring up if Jonson gets hurt.  This is FAR from a terrible pick......and it’s the 7th round!!  You really know nothing about him, but give him a D+......

 

......and you give the kicker, ranked by most as the best kicker in the draft, an incomplete, because you know nothing about him.....EXCEPT THAT HE’S THE NUMBER ONE KICKER IN THE DRAFT.  Wow.

 

Fromm-  you don’t like him.  Not sure what you don’t like about him, because you didn’t say anything about him.  Because you don’t know anything about him. You read he has a weak arm.  Cool.
 

Doesn’t seem like you know much about any of these guys tbh

The kicker wasn’t great last year though, 20-28 on fgs. He does have a ridiculous leg though. If you haven’t seen his no step 50 yard field goal or 1 step 60 yarder, google it

 

jackson is an outside corner, has never played the inside nickel corner role. Beane said as much today

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I for one love the Moss pick and don't find athleticism issues I think some derive from his 40 time. 40's and RB's are for the college game. Even elite RB speed gets marginalized in today's game. How are they within 10-15 yards? With Singletary I knew the answer because I watched a lot of him at FAU. I know the answer with Moss as well. Very explosive, generates incredible torque with his hips and legs. Very athletic. Powerful, powerful dude. I can't imagine having to chase around Singletary's tiny, slippery A$$, never getting to square up and then next in comes another seemingly tiny, oh sheeet...that hurt. 

 

I do not like the Frohm pick at all. That was a process pick all the way but we will see.

 

I'm happy with the outcome as a whole. We nailed what was technically our 1st 3 picks from where I sit and the rest at that point are always 50/50.  

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I for one love the Moss pick and don't find athleticism issues I think some derive from his 40 time. 40's and RB's are for the college game. Even elite RB speed gets marginalized in today's game. How are they within 10-15 yards? With Singletary I knew the answer because I watched a lot of him at FAU. I know the answer with Moss as well. Very explosive, generates incredible torque with his hips and legs. Very athletic. Powerful, powerful dude. I can't imagine having to chase around Singletary's tiny, slippery A$$, never getting to square up and then next in comes another seemingly tiny, oh sheeet...that hurt. 

 

I do not like the Frohm pick at all. That was a process pick all the way but we will see.

 

I'm happy with the outcome as a whole. We nailed what was technically our 1st 3 picks from where I sit and the rest at that point are always 50/50.  

 

 

 

Good post, who knows about Fromme but One thing to remember is Belichick drafted QBs almost every year when he had Brady, and often higher than 5th round picks. Barkley not the answer as a backup and maybe Fromme can be. If not, need to find someone 

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59 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

A couple quick caveats to this post that hopefully provide enough context to make this a substantive conversation and not come across as simply complaining...

 

1. I'm very much in the camp of trusting Beane and McD, it's been clear to me (up to this point, anyway) that there's been a solid plan in place that they are executing.

2. My draft evaluations/judgments come from 2 places: watching the film and athletic testing

 

First created topic, here goes...

 

I love that most folks -- both on this board, as well as the broader community -- are excited about our draft. That gives me a good amount of hope with this group. That said, I have my reservations...

 

1. Love that we got Diggs. I think he's going to add a great dynamic to the offense. Hard to argue that he's not every bit as impactful as any of the rookies would've been, so job well done BB! A+

 

Agreed

 

2. Unquestionably great value with Epenesa at the end of the 2nd. He's never going to be confused with Jevon Kearse but I think he can be a dynamic DE for a very long time. Speaking from personal biases, I would've loved to move ahead of Pittsburgh for Claypool, I loved him as a prospect and I think he would've added a dynamic that this offense is still lacking. That said, letting Epenesa fall into our laps was still a great, value-laden move -- 2/2 -- solid A

Agreed

Quote

 

3. Here's where my skepticism really kicks in.  I love the way that Zach Moss runs, if the Terminator was a RB, I imagine they'd have very comparable styles. But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums. Only time will tell, but it's a concern (that builds into a larger concern, as mentioned be low)... They liked him, obviously, wanting to move up to get him, so I'll gladly be wrong here, but am nervous... Working on the theme above, would've loved to have been able to swoop in and take Mims before the Jets could've. Another big, athletic playmaker who opens up other avenues for the offense or Bryan Edwards.  Incomplete

4. LOVE that we went for a WR with some size here, and I love reading about Davis' work ethic, so again, I'm cautiously optimistic that this one will pan out. But he's not overly athletic, he's not explosive, he doesn't run great routes, he's never going to be possibly more than a very slight a mismatch in terms of size/speed/strength... I don't know where he wins. I heard the comment about him winning on double moves, which is interesting, but I'm not convinced that's something that can actively play into an overall strategy. Gandy Golden, either Johnson, DPJ and Coulter all felt like better bets to be impact players. Time will tell, and again, hoping for the best, but I'm afraid Davis is destined to be a career 4th or 5th wr (which, to be fair, is probably what should be expected out of a guy at the end of the 4th...). C

 

5. Not convinced Jake Fromm even makes the roster. Sure he's a great leader, sure he knows football, cool. Unless we're drafting him to groom him as our next QB coach, this felt like a wasted pick to me, especially with the veterans available in FA. D-

 

6a. K is a need, we filled it, cool. I know nothing about the kid but like that most had him as their #1 ranked K and he has a big leg. Pass

 

6b. Really torn here -- I'm married to and Oregon State Beaver so have seen this kid dominate for the past 3 years. My Ducks recruited him but decided not to take him and almost instantly regretted it. If there's going to be a poster boy for ones that can succeed despite not clearing those athletic thresholds, it's going to be Hodgins. Unlike Davis, I love Hodgins' length, body control and catch radius. You can at least see how he can be a box-out type guy like Arcega-Whiteside last year. That said, this kid is REALLY going to struggle gaining separation at the NFL level. He actually tested out better than I expected, but that's a glaring weakness in his game. I think he'll provide some interesting to the end of our roster WRs, but probably not ever be more than a 5th or 6th WR/RZ specialist. Wouldn't have taken much to move up for DPJ, who at least has a chance to turn into something... C+

 

7. It's hard and unfair to really say that a 7th rd pick is ever wasted, but I don't feel like this kid has a chance to make the roster. Frankly not sure what else I would've done, but it's uninspiring ot say the least... D+

 

In the end, they let things come to them, which I see as both good and bad.  It's what the Ravens do every year and they've been one of the most successful franchises for a very long time. It means they're continuing to build on a defensive-minded, control the ball, style offense. I like that they're in sync there and operating with one vision -- that's ULTRA RARE in pro sports. It also means that they didn't take any chances, and as such, didn't make any substantial gains (Diggs' acquisition, notwithstanding). Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Ravens -- arguably our biggest competition out in front both had huge drafts and a number of other teams stocked up on weapons as well. 

 

So I'm left with this weird feeling of not being unhappy but also not being super excited about this draft. Certainly part of it is that the Diggs trade went down a few weeks ago and we didn't get fanfare for it on Thursday. But another part of it is really questioning if we're being innovative and forward-looking enough, or if we're erring on the side of stubborn old-man football that is going the way of the Dodo. Is it healthy skepticism? Pessimistic optimism? Not sure, but I've definitely seen plenty of posts on here of folks whose expectations need to be seriously tempered...

So this is the thing

 

If you get 3 starters out of a draft you have had a good draft....if you get 4 out of a draft you have OUTSTANDING draft.....

 

and

 

There were not a lot of spots on thiis team to begin with

 

Now onto some of your obvervatios

 

- You dont have the most recording missed tackles and not be a player at RB.....its just that this guy does it be running through you and not arounnd you.....he appears to be able to pass protect, catch balls, and get tough yards......he is a PLATOON bask to Devin.....

 

- We doubled down on wideout......in one of the best wr draft clases ever......literally FORTY draftable guys in this draft.....at least ONE of them is gonna pan out and both might

 

Its fine....Beane crushed it

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7 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

The kicker wasn’t great last year though, 20-28 on fgs. He does have a ridiculous leg though. If you haven’t seen his no step 50 yard field goal or 1 step 60 yarder, google it

 

jackson is an outside corner, has never played the inside nickel corner role. Beane said as much today

I’m happy with the kicker pick.  I’m all about adding big legs with hope they can improve their accuracy.  I doubt the accurate kickers that can’t kick it 45 yards will improve their leg strength enough to kick it 60.  
 

Interesting, I hadn’t heard Beane say that.  Watching his film, I see that he’s played outside exclusively but given his lack of recovery speed, he doesn’t seem like a good fit on the boundary.  We shall see. 

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The one thing that I find curious is the organization's stated need to acquire touchdown makers, yet the characteristic that all of these picks share is average to below athleticism.  I'm all for have a tough and smart team, but if we are going to become a more potent offense, or a defense that makes bigger plays, we need guys that stress the opponent.

 

It's not that I don't like the values we found, but I am a little concerned.

 

Just putting it out there.

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Posted (edited)

The first 3 rounds are like a roll of the dice, and I think we won solidly there. The remaining rounds are like lottery tickets. All rounds are not weighted evenly. You just hope for the best later on. We did well at the top, good prospects afterward, I’m happy, even if it did feel a little strange with a K and a QB thrown in. 

 

 

Edited by Augie
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13 minutes ago, familykwi said:

The one thing that I find curious is the organization's stated need to acquire touchdown makers, yet the characteristic that all of these picks share is average to below athleticism.  I'm all for have a tough and smart team, but if we are going to become a more potent offense, or a defense that makes bigger plays, we need guys that stress the opponent.

 

It's not that I don't like the values we found, but I am a little concerned.

 

Just putting it out there.

Don’t agree on the two WRs. They may have less than ideal 40 speed but both of above average athletes and one has elite hands

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