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Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

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Long as he continues to show improvement I dont see what the hurry is.  He was  a physically freakish project qb coming out. Bills did nothing but throw him into the lions den with a steak around his neck year one  .  Year two they added some support around him but the conservative play calling and washed up Frank Gore and lack of a second outside wr hurt his production.  Year three the O line should be better.  Diggs gives the Bills two wrs who can win on the outside and Singeltary plus whomever they bring in has to be an improvements of what was left of Frank Gore.   Until McDermott quits sitting on small leads he still might struggle to push up to 240 yards a game.  The defense is good enough that a 10 point lead and Daboll takes a quarter off from even trying to push the ball 

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2 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:


This is part of the reason why I liked the Diggs trade.  The Bills weren’t going to be on Jerry Juedy or CeeeeDeeee Lamb.  Even if they did,

rookie WR’s sometimes take time to develop.  
 

No excuses with Diggs 
 

 

Agreed.  Like Beans said, dogs is our first found draft pick.  All in on this trade. 

43 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Long as he continues to show improvement I dont see what the hurry is.  He was  a physically freakish project qb coming out. Bills did nothing but throw him into the lions den with a steak around his neck year one  .  Year two they added some support around him but the conservative play calling and washed up Frank Gore and lack of a second outside wr hurt his production.  Year three the O line should be better.  Diggs gives the Bills two wrs who can win on the outside and Singeltary plus whomever they bring in has to be an improvements of what was left of Frank Gore.   Until McDermott quits sitting on small leads he still might struggle to push up to 240 yards a game.  The defense is good enough that a 10 point lead and Daboll takes a quarter off from even trying to push the ball 

Supposedly,  the retraints are coming off this year.  I would love to see what Josh will do in a wide open offense.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/23/2020 at 11:33 AM, jrober38 said:

 

We have a year to figure it out which is good. I think he needs to improve a lot.  

 

At his current level, I don't think he warrants the $30 mil/year he'll likely ask for.

 

Recent history has shown that paying non elite QBs has major effects on that team's ability to win football games after the new contract kicks in. 

Would you rather see us in QB purgatory again? Allen’s the best QB we’ve had since Kelly and it seems like everyone wants him out. ***** ridiculous, most spoiled fans in the NFL, cousins isn’t worth half the money he’s being paid but guess what he’s getting paid because that’s the QB market, I mean Jesus Christ look at what Tennessee just gave ***** Tannehill 

Edited by BuffaloBills1998

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On 3/23/2020 at 11:31 AM, Cripple Creek said:

It most definitely is.  If it were your money would you be ready to pony up 35-40m/season based on what you've seen to this point?

Never

On 3/23/2020 at 11:40 AM, whorlnut said:

Make what happen?  Bring his team back to win games?  You realize that he already does that as well as anyone in the league right?

Somebody drug test this poster   for his own good

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On 3/23/2020 at 11:53 AM, Cal said:

Best trio lol

LSU and Alabama had, in 19' better trios than we have

On 3/23/2020 at 12:03 PM, TuelTime said:

How much would you pay Josh Allen if he were a FA today? 10, 15, 20 mil a year??

 

Russell Wilson gets 35 a year, Tom Brady just got 25, and Tyrod and Fitz are at 5.5.

 

He already makes 5.2 a year so I doubt he would take less than that, but in your most objective opinion, how much do you think Josh Allen is worth? How many years and how much guaranteed? Teddy Bridgewater just got 21 million a year.. Has Josh shown enough yet to be worth more than Bridgewater?

 

 

uhhhhhh, NO. But he would get big money from some sucker GM and/or coach will think they can tame the untamable stallion

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Never mind the missed block in OT against Houston.

 

It was the shot he took on that play that should have us worried.

 

It doesn't matter how big Allen is, shots like that cannot continue or Allen will be washed up like Newton at a young QB age of 31.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

LSU and Alabama had, in 19' better trios than we have

uhhhhhh, NO. But he would get big money from some sucker GM and/or coach will think they can tame the untamable stallion

 

I like Allen, but putting myself in an objective GM's shoes, I'd find it VERY hard to sign Allen to any type of long term contract for big money. His level of production has been very mediocre and if he doesn't turn the corner in the next season, he is likely to end up on the bench in season following.

 

He has played quite a few games now and while I do still see his potential, I am definitely not sold. If he were a free agent today I'd be hard pressed to give him 2 years at 15-18 with 20 guaranteed.

 

Edited by TuelTime

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2 hours ago, TuelTime said:

 

I like Allen, but putting myself in an objective GM's shoes, I'd find it VERY hard to sign Allen to any type of long term contract for big money. His level of production has been very mediocre and if he doesn't turn the corner in the next season, he is likely to end up on the bench in season following.

 

I don't agree, and the only reason I can give you is subjective.   

 

The one guy I think Allen looks and plays most like is Elway.   Same size, same rocket arm, same toughness at the end of runs, same desire to win.   Elway could will his team into the end zone, often by willing himself into the end zone.  His team followed that leadership and came together behind it.   

 

It took Elway nine years to break out of the mold of just ordinary QB.  NINE.   Eventually it all clicked, and for the next three or four seasons he was one of the dominant QBs in the league.  It's not going to take Allen nine years to get there, but whenever he gets there, you don't want to be the GM who gave up on him too early.   Allen's gotta regress this season before the Bills will begin to have doubts.    

 

I think you have to look at it this way:   In what people thought was one of the best quarterback draft classes in a couple decades, who was the guy generally acknowledged to have the best upside?   Allen, hands down.  The sky was the limit.  Highest upside.   The knock on Allen was all the other things, but no one was worried about Allen having any physical limitations.   When they looked at all the other stuff, they began to think the risks were big enough that of the four Allen may also have the highest bust potential.    That's why his stock dropped.   

 

Now forward to the present.   Has Allen's upside changed?   No.  Maybe tarnished a bit because of the poor long-ball production, but that's it.   People can still see in him all the potential they saw during the draft.   What about the knocks, all the other things?   Well, generally speaking, he's been checking them off, one by one.  Not completely, not yet:  Hero ball, accuracy, lack of big-time college experience.   He has been showing that those aren't problems.   Not completely, but I think you have to admit that he is significantly less a risk to bust today than he was during the draft.   

 

So his upside is still great, and his downside is smaller.   He isn't failing, he's still growing.  The bust risk is smaller.   So if you're drafting today, and teams know all of that about Allen, he won't get past the first pick or two.   

 

No way do the Bills let him go.  

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2 hours ago, TuelTime said:

 

I like Allen, but putting myself in an objective GM's shoes, I'd find it VERY hard to sign Allen to any type of long term contract for big money. His level of production has been very mediocre and if he doesn't turn the corner in the next season, he is likely to end up on the bench in season following.

 

He has played quite a few games now and while I do still see his potential, I am definitely not sold. If he were a free agent today I'd be hard pressed to give him 2 years at 15-18 with 20 guaranteed.

 

I think that's crazy.   His price would skyrocket to $25 or more, for multiple years.   

 

If he were a free agent today, it's like he's the #1 guy in the draft.   This is a supremely talented young quarterback who is succeeding to some degree, and more importantly hasn't failed in the NFL.   That makes him more valuable than ANY QB in the draft.   He hasn't shown any real limitations, just things he hasn't done really well yet.   How much would you spend for the #1 pick in the draft if you were a team that needed a QB?   If you could buy a guy like that in free agency, you'd gladly write a contract approaching $80-$100 million.  Minnesota did more than that for Cousins, and after two years into each guy's career I'd definitely have taken Allen over Cousins.  Heck, Cousins didn't even play for his first three years.  

 

That's not to say Allen is a sure thing.   I'm really high on Allen, but he still has to do it, he has to play like a champion quarterback.   But he has great potential, and he's less likely to fail, than any QB in the draft.   Every guy in the draft is a crapshoot, in a sense.   Manning and maybe Luck are the only guys who were locks coming out of college, everyone else is a big bet.   Someone would be willing to place a big bet Allen.  

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Reading the blow hard posts in this thread is so tiring, on the bright side this individual makes the rest of us appear much smarter.. 😁

okay, back to boat projects, ordered a water maker and an AIS transponder that need to be installed... more boat yoga 😁

 

Go Bills!!!

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19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think that's crazy.   His price would skyrocket to $25 or more, for multiple years.   

 

If he were a free agent today, it's like he's the #1 guy in the draft.   This is a supremely talented young quarterback who is succeeding to some degree, and more importantly hasn't failed in the NFL.   That makes him more valuable than ANY QB in the draft.   He hasn't shown any real limitations, just things he hasn't done really well yet.   How much would you spend for the #1 pick in the draft if you were a team that needed a QB?   If you could buy a guy like that in free agency, you'd gladly write a contract approaching $80-$100 million.  Minnesota did more than that for Cousins, and after two years into each guy's career I'd definitely have taken Allen over Cousins.  Heck, Cousins didn't even play for his first three years.  

 

That's not to say Allen is a sure thing.   I'm really high on Allen, but he still has to do it, he has to play like a champion quarterback.   But he has great potential, and he's less likely to fail, than any QB in the draft.   Every guy in the draft is a crapshoot, in a sense.   Manning and maybe Luck are the only guys who were locks coming out of college, everyone else is a big bet.   Someone would be willing to place a big bet Allen.  

Do you think Cincinnati would trade the top pick for him if McBeane offered?

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15 minutes ago, Billl said:

Do you think Cincinnati would trade the top pick for him if McBeane offered?

Pardon my ignorance.  I pay little attention to the draft.  The Bengals have the top pick?   I assume you're asking would I trade the #1 pick this year for Allen.   

 

I wouldn't.   What I've seen of Burroughs (is that the kid's name from LSU?) he looks like a really special player.   I wouldn't trade him.   

 

But I wouldn't have traded Allen after his rookie year for that kid the Cards got.   

 

I said it here or in another thread.   When Allen came out, in a great QB class, everyone knew he had the highest ceiling of any QB in that class.  The problem with Allen was that there just were a lot of questions, a lot of things he hadn't done yet.   Now it's two years later, and his upside is still just as high, and the perceived problems have been slipping away, one by one.   He still has more to improve, for sure, but compared to two years ago, a lot of the risk is now gone.   

 

Think about this:   The Bills just traded the equivalent of the 18th pick in the first round to get Diggs.   Some people think the Bills spent too much.   So, if Minnesota offered to give all those picks back, plus we keep Diggs and the pick they gave us, and we just had to give them Allen, would you do it?    Allen for the 18th pick in the draft?   No football GM in his right mind is trading Allen for the 18th.   Or for the 10th pick.   Nobody would do that.   QB is the position that demands that you have the right guy or you won't win.   When you have the rights to a guy who still has the potential to be one of the all time greats and who after two years, a guy still hasn't shown any uncorrectable faults, when you have a guy like that, you do not trade him for any pick in the first round except #1.  And you only make the trade if you think the guy you can get is more likely to be a HOF QB.    

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Pardon my ignorance.  I pay little attention to the draft.  The Bengals have the top pick?   I assume you're asking would I trade the #1 pick this year for Allen.   

 

I wouldn't.   What I've seen of Burroughs (is that the kid's name from LSU?) he looks like a really special player.   I wouldn't trade him.   

 

But I wouldn't have traded Allen after his rookie year for that kid the Cards got.   

 

I said it here or in another thread.   When Allen came out, in a great QB class, everyone knew he had the highest ceiling of any QB in that class.  The problem with Allen was that there just were a lot of questions, a lot of things he hadn't done yet.   Now it's two years later, and his upside is still just as high, and the perceived problems have been slipping away, one by one.   He still has more to improve, for sure, but compared to two years ago, a lot of the risk is now gone.   

 

Think about this:   The Bills just traded the equivalent of the 18th pick in the first round to get Diggs.   Some people think the Bills spent too much.   So, if Minnesota offered to give all those picks back, plus we keep Diggs and the pick they gave us, and we just had to give them Allen, would you do it?    Allen for the 18th pick in the draft?   No football GM in his right mind is trading Allen for the 18th.   Or for the 10th pick.   Nobody would do that.   QB is the position that demands that you have the right guy or you won't win.   When you have the rights to a guy who still has the potential to be one of the all time greats and who after two years, a guy still hasn't shown any uncorrectable faults, when you have a guy like that, you do not trade him for any pick in the first round except #1.  And you only make the trade if you think the guy you can get is more likely to be a HOF QB.    

 

I don't agree re: Kyler Murray (in terms of if I was the Cards I'd have picked Murray rather than swap that pick for Allen). I do agree from the Bills side whether you would trade Allen for a 1st round pick though. Of course you wouldn't. Teams can trade 2 years in advance so if someone offered you three #1s for Allen would you take it is a better question? I am still inclined to say no because I think there remains a chance he can be a top 5 QB. Until I think that chance has gone the ONLY thing you trade Allen for is a young proven top 5 Quarterback. And people don't trade those. Not even Bill O'Brien. 

Edited by GunnerBill
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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't agree re: Kyler Murray (in terms of if I was the Cards I'd have picked Murray rather than swap that pick for Allen). I do agree from the Bills side whether you would trade Allen for a 1st round pick though. Of course you wouldn't. Teams can trade 2 years in advance so if someone offered you three #1s for Allen would you take it is a better question? I am still inclined to say no because I think there remains a chance he can be a top 5 QB. Until I think that chance has gone the ONLY thing you trade Allen for is a young proven top 5 Quarterback. And people don't trade those. Not even Bill O'Brien. 

I agree.   Three successive first round picks?   Probably not, but at least I could understand thinking about it.   

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Fact time. 

Pre Josh this team got rid of big stars to get Josh here

 

Year one, josh made lots of rookie.mistakes and showed progress late. Josh had to run for his life or throw lots of deep balls quick cause it took that long for wr to get seperation.

 

Year 2 Josh had to learn to throw to new receivers (takes time) and learn how a brand new offensive line forms um in front of him. He did not have his linemen together healthy most if not all of the preseason and again. Stuff takes time.

 

Yet through all of the changes Josh has had to endure.. And learn at the NFL level .. My god Josh took good positive steps last year.. Complaining about a QB's first experience in the playoffs is something im not prepared to do.. 4th quarter he was running for his life.. Again..

 

Now we have Diggs.. Teams can not throw 8 in the box with our 3 WR set out there and this is the year I feel Josh will break 60% completion and that in itself will be considered a step up for Josh this year. This is the most complete team we have had in over 20 years. This isnt about blind faith in our qb. This is about having faith in this team as a whole.

 

I have to laugh.. How many people said "build around Tyrod Taylor and he will be great" then it was "Tyrod will be great in Cleveland". The theory of making Tyrod better though having great players around Tyrod did not work out.. Now lets see how the same theory works for Josh. I dont need to see josh throw the ball for 300 yards to call him a franchise qb but just one game early in season would not hurt.

 

1-2 300 yard+ games yis year with a 60%+ completion percentage top 20 QB in the league.. The man will get paid. This is a small step for any starting franchise qb.. Every starting franchise qb should have one or 2 games where they light it ul and throw for 60%.. If thats to much to ask?

 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/3/2020 at 11:52 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

He played at a top 10 level last year. Sure. I am a fan of the method that once a guy is in his 5th year or beyond you should throw out his best year. And throw out his worst year. What you are left with is who he is. And Tannehill is a below average starting Quarterback. 

Agreed. I think the Titans just felt comfortable enough with the rest of that REALLY GOOD squad that they decided to stick with Tannehill for now. Not to say he doesn't offer them value; he's good at what that particular team asks him to do. Where he excels is in the screen game, and because of their OL/run game, those are gonna be open. He can find the right guy downfield when the box is stacked and they take a shot. He was really good at protecting the football. So they figured they'd ride it out for a little while.

 

The notion that he's turned into some kind of franchise QB after years of "seasoning" is not a belief I share.

 

They're close and they didn't feel like changing "captains." They'll be looking for their franchise guy soon enough.

On 4/3/2020 at 2:31 PM, Gugny said:

 

For years I said that I wished Miami never figured out that Matt Moore was the best QB on their roster.  They never did.

The one thing I always wanted to know during the Tannehill era was whether he or Moore were going to start against BUF. Felt a lot better about our chances if it was RT.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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He needs to finish the season with a passing efficiency greater than 100 and cut the number of fumbles down. I won't get into completion rate, YPA, TD's and picks because that all factors into the passing efficiency rating anyways.

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10 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

He needs to finish the season with a passing efficiency greater than 100 and cut the number of fumbles down. I won't get into completion rate, YPA, TD's and picks because that all factors into the passing efficiency rating anyways.

What do you mean, he needs to?   If his passer rating is 95, you're going to shop him and go looking for a new QB?   That's absurd.  That points out exactly why it is not a prove it year.   

 

Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz didn't have a passer rating of 100.  Are you cutting them loose, too?

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4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

What do you mean, he needs to?   If his passer rating is 95, you're going to shop him and go looking for a new QB?   That's absurd.  That points out exactly why it is not a prove it year.   

 

Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz didn't have a passer rating of 100.  Are you cutting them loose, too?

 

Some people prefer ultimatums to reasonableness. I’m good with progress, but I can’t put numbers on that. I’ll know it when we see it, and I feel pretty confident we will see it. But I’m not expecting a finished product. Why set anyone up for disappointment? 

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Posted (edited)

One thing I gotta say about this Ryan Tannehill talk; there's not a SINGLE NFL ORGANIZATION in their right mind who would sign up for 6 years of mediocrity and a boom in year 7 that may or may not reflect growth. He walked into a perfect situation in Tennessee and played very well in relatively limited action. The jury is very much out as to whether that production will continue moving forward. No team would give up a first round pick, let alone a top 10 pick for that. As a matter of fact, teams would social distance from even being in that situation so they'd never bring that in unless they were going to sit him on the bench for a long stretch of time.

 

Not saying Allen can't be better than Tannehill, but if he isn't; that's a SERIOUS problem.

 

JA is going to bust his *** because he's got incredible work ethic. He's a great kid who desperately wants to get better, which is far more than you can say about someone like Jay Cutler.

 

But the proof will be in the pudding and that proof SHOULD come to fruition in 2020.

Edited by LSHMEAB

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