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dave mcbride

Trent Murphy upped his game late last season and is better than many think

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6 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Great player - not best in the league and thats what he's asking to be paid.  The injury history is very concerning though.  Seems like he is always banged up, and always missing time.  

Yeah, there are certainly concerns. It’s the type of “all in” move that a team makes chasing a Super Bowl. You gamble and hope to be right. It’s a move I’d be interested in.
 

I’m not as high on Ngakoue personally and he’d cost draft compensation as well. I wouldn’t hate it but may prefer Murphy + picks + savings in that case.

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19 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


Why can’t they keep Murphy? So they somehow need the cap space all of a sudden?

 

I keep repeating it: don’t make the team worse for the sake of cap space that you don’t need.

 

Then at least don't play him greater than 33% of the snaps, if that.  Having guys like Star and Murphy simply means you have depth, that's it.

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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought this deserved its own thread given all the talk about the various moving d-line pieces following all of these d-line signings. In the final six games of 2019 including the playoff game, Murphy had six sacks, six tackles for loss, and 8 qb hits. He averaged playing 67 percent of the snaps too. Obviously and inarguably, that is elite production.  I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Many years ago, a wise man named @AKC talked about d-line equity, focusing in particular on the Giants SB teams that beat the Pats (particularly the 07 team). When you can rotate in good d-lineman after good d-lineman over the course of a game, it becomes very, very tough for an offense to produce. The Bills now have d-line equity in spades. It is going to be fun to watch.
 

Here is Murphy’s 2019 game log: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurpTr00/gamelog/2019/

He is a good DE and he is finally getting healthy.  A lot of people on this board think they are experts on player evaluation or something.  In reality all they do is look at box scores.  It'll be good if he can  fill the box score for them.

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8 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Then at least don't play him greater than 33% of the snaps, if that.  Having guys like Star and Murphy simply means you have depth, that's it.


Murphy played the most snaps of any DLman last year...and remember: this was the leagues #2 defense in scoring, 

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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought this deserved its own thread given all the talk about the various moving d-line pieces following all of these d-line signings. In the final six games of 2019 including the playoff game, Murphy had six sacks, six tackles for loss, and 8 qb hits. He averaged playing 67 percent of the snaps too. Obviously and inarguably, that is elite production.  I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Many years ago, a wise man named @AKC talked about d-line equity, focusing in particular on the Giants SB teams that beat the Pats (particularly the 07 team). When you can rotate in good d-lineman after good d-lineman over the course of a game, it becomes very, very tough for an offense to produce. The Bills now have d-line equity in spades. It is going to be fun to watch.
 

Here is Murphy’s 2019 game log: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurpTr00/gamelog/2019/

Very fair analysis, and it's tough to deny this.

 

Murphy did play better late in the season, and he stood out in the playoff game.

 

Yes, the 8 million on his contract stands out, especially if we could entice Clowney to join the team. In which case Murphy would be out of here.

 

However, if the Bills feel that Murphy can continue to play the way he did at the end of last season, then I trust their judgment.

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39 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Are we saving money or trying to win football games?

 

Exactly.  I get really tired of this "penny wise, dollar foolish" attitude that so many Bills fans espouse, which is undoubtedly a product of 2i0+ years of being brain washed by Ralph Wilson and his minions that the Bills can't "afford" to build a winning team.   Other teams figure out how to put together winning teams -- sometimes for only a couple of seasons but others almost continuously -- while paying really expensive players like QBs and DEs that the Bills simply don't have on their roster at present (I think last season, Morris might have been the most expensive Bills player).

 

This is the year for the Bills to go for broke to take over the AFCE while NE is transitioning away from Brady, Miami is still collecting puzzle pieces, and the Jets are simply the Jets.   Murphy seemed to get his act together last season, McDermott knows what he can do, the Bills aren't in need of cap space, and the Bills aren't likely to sign Clowney, so what's the point of cutting him???   They don't have a young stud waiting to take over for him already on the roster, they aren't going to actually save $8 million since they will have to add a replacement.  Even an UDFA rookie is going to cost something just in $$$ and maybe in wins, too.

 

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12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Two things about this.   

 

First, once the guy is on your team, what you're paying him is not very relevant.   The question is solely about whether he's helping your team and doing what you want him to do.   Every team every year has guys who are getting more than what they'd be worth if they immediately became free agents, and other guys who are getting paid less than they should.   It's just in the nature of how compensation works in the league.  

 

The only question is whether he's doing his job.   I'm guessing that the OP and people who are backing Murphy have it right.   If he weren't doing his job, the Bills probably would have cut him to realize the savings.   The fact that they didn't cut him suggests McD likes what they're getting from him.   

 

My recollection is that Murphy in an interview sometime late last season, when his play had picked up and he was making a difference, Murphy said that he finally was recovered from his surgery.   Essentially he said that he still wasn't right when the 2019 season began.   That would help explain why his play improved, and it also would be part of the reason that the Bills are keeping him.   

 

Plus, as we know, McDermott loves the guy's intensity.  McD wants guys like that on the team, to model their behavior for other players.   Murphy's a mad dog committed to doing his job, and McD wants 60 of those.  

 

I don't think McD is anywhere near as good evaluating the d-line, or really any other position, aside from the defensive backfield.  He made remarks that he wanted to see more QB pressures and sacks from the defensive line; they finished 12th in that category, though largely from Jordan Phillips' and Shaq Lawson's efforts.  Murphy was well below those two in defensive statistics, yet he was paid many times more than them.

Murphy may have a high motor, but has a hard time getting away from the RT, who usually pushes Murphy 10+ yards out of the play. 

Chris Kelsay played with intensity, too.  Dick Jauron loved that high motor.  McD likes Murphy (and Star) because they are 'his' guys; I don't see them playing on better defenses such as SF or Baltimore, for example.  

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


Murphy played the most snaps of any DLman last year...and remember: this was the leagues #2 defense in scoring, 

 

Which had little to nothing to do with Murphy.  If you look at defensive lineman stats on NFL.com, Murphy is well below Lawson and J. Phillips, yet was paid many times more than both.

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42 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You’re with me if they could get Clowney for AAV of $18M?

I think the chances of that happening are basically zero. They have already brought in 3 d-linemen to what is already a good unit. I am confident that they are done on that front, and anyway Clowney doesn’t strike me as the sort of guy who is going to want to play in Buffalo. Seattle makes too much sense.

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52 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Murphy (and Star) get paid too much for what they do.  You can't keep Murphy at $8M/year.  Murphy had a good game vs Houston and now all of a sudden he is clutch.  The rest of the year he wasn't anything spectacular.  Counting on Murphy and Star to make your defense stout is like counting on a car air freshener to make an outhouse smell good.

Murphy has had plenty of good games.  The production you are looking for cost 15-20 mil per yr, not 8 mil.

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1 hour ago, papazoid said:

too little , too late

 

his contract says they save $8 mil if cut ($1.75 dead money)

 

id say its 75% likely hes gone

So we cut Murphy, curious who you think we'll bring in that's better for $6.25mil (or less) money?

6 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I don't think McD is anywhere near as good evaluating the d-line, or really any other position, aside from the defensive backfield.  He made remarks that he wanted to see more QB pressures and sacks from the defensive line; they finished 12th in that category, though largely from Jordan Phillips' and Shaq Lawson's efforts.  Murphy was well below those two in defensive statistics, yet he was paid many times more than them.

Murphy may have a high motor, but has a hard time getting away from the RT, who usually pushes Murphy 10+ yards out of the play. 

Chris Kelsay played with intensity, too.  Dick Jauron loved that high motor.  McD likes Murphy (and Star) because they are 'his' guys; I don't see them playing on better defenses such as SF or Baltimore, for example.  

 

Which had little to nothing to do with Murphy.  If you look at defensive lineman stats on NFL.com, Murphy is well below Lawson and J. Phillips, yet was paid many times more than both.

You do realize that we added Murphy as an UFA and wasn't working off his rookie contract like Shaq was? Toss in before coming here his 2006 season (his last season played before coming here) was better than anything Shaq had done to that time or since actually. That's why he got the money he did. 

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1 hour ago, papazoid said:

too little , too late

 

his contract says they save $8 mil if cut ($1.75 dead money)

 

id say its 75% likely hes gone

I'll take that bet.

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33 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Great player - not best in the league and thats what he's asking to be paid.  The injury history is very concerning though.  Seems like he is always banged up, and always missing time.  

 

I think that Clowney's injury history is what is keeping teams from considering him at present.  They aren't going to make a deal with him unless they can have their own doctors give him a physical -- and that's not going to change for some time to come.

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6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think the chances of that happening are basically zero. They have already brought in 3 d-linemen to what is already a good unit. I am confident that they are done on that front, and anyway Clowney doesn’t strike me as the sort of guy who is going to want to play in Buffalo. Seattle makes too much sense.

I never understood the bolded. What does that mean? Athletes want to go to the best situation. There are a lot of factors with money being at or near the top. I never got the “he won’t want to be in Buffalo” sentiment. In general, the Bills have always recruited well in FA. 
 

With his market dropping I think it becomes more likely. Maybe that wasn’t their plan but at some point the value meets the opportunity. I’m not saying it’s likely but the odds increase every hour that passes. 

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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought this deserved its own thread given all the talk about the various moving d-line pieces following all of these d-line signings. In the final six games of 2019 including the playoff game, Murphy had six sacks, six tackles for loss, and 8 qb hits. He averaged playing 67 percent of the snaps too. Obviously and inarguably, that is elite production.  I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Many years ago, a wise man named @AKC talked about d-line equity, focusing in particular on the Giants SB teams that beat the Pats (particularly the 07 team). When you can rotate in good d-lineman after good d-lineman over the course of a game, it becomes very, very tough for an offense to produce. The Bills now have d-line equity in spades. It is going to be fun to watch.
 

Here is Murphy’s 2019 game log: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurpTr00/gamelog/2019/

 

This is what I've been saying.  He finished the year strong and showed up when it counted for the Bills.  This idea that the Bills will just drop him all willy nilly I think is premature.

 

Unless the Bills have a better option I just don't see it.  I could be wrong but having Murphy as a solid rotational player makes sense.  The Bills are not in a salary cap crunch and there is absolutely very little reason to drop him unless you have someone else better to replace him with.  Maybe they draft a DE and he becomes expendable or maybe they find someone else in FA.  But as of right now, as the team stands I don't see that as happening.

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Why do headlines on TBD resemble buzzfeed headlines?

 

Kroft's Hidden Production Was Better Than We Think

McDermott's Secret Clap That Signifies War

8 Things Beane Does Before He Signs A Free Agent

 

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59 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Murphy (and Star) get paid too much for what they do.  You can't keep Murphy at $8M/year.  Murphy had a good game vs Houston and now all of a sudden he is clutch.  The rest of the year he wasn't anything spectacular.  Counting on Murphy and Star to make your defense stout is like counting on a car air freshener to make an outhouse smell good.

He had 3 sacks up until last game against Jets,  how can you justify 10 million for that kind of production and he is very weak against the run. People taking about his great playoff game should review the TD run where he could not bring down Watson.  You take the 8 million savings and add 5-6 and you could sign an upgrade

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3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I never understood the bolded. What does that mean? Athletes want to go to the best situation. There are a lot of factors with money being at or near the top. I never got the “he won’t want to be in Buffalo” sentiment. In general, the Bills have always recruited well in FA. 
 

With his market dropping I think it becomes more likely. Maybe that wasn’t their plan but at some point the value meets the opportunity. I’m not saying it’s likely but the odds increase every hour that passes. 

It's more of a gut feel. He just strikes me as the sort of guy who wants to play with a "star" team (partly because he seems to want to win). I don't put Buffalo in that category, but I could be wrong. Regardless, I would be absolutely stunned if the Bills are pursuing him. They have something like 9 quality d-linemen now. 

2 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

Why do headlines on TBD resemble buzzfeed headlines?

 

Kroft's Hidden Production Was Better Than We Think

McDermott's Secret Clap That Signifies War

8 Things Beane Does Before He Signs A Free Agent

 

Huh??? The mods have pushed for everyone here to provide headlines that are as descriptive as possible regarding the content.

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Murphy is very good when healthy as Dave said. It took him a long time to return to health. Not his fault but a fact. Remains to be seen if he can keep his health and thus his production. History is not good but he's 100% now. I wouldn't get rid of him except for Clowney, who would transform the defense from very good to great. He may even take a one year prove it deal. 18m. Lose 8 from releasing Murphy. Take the hit. Then Star comes off books next year with Butler still around to take up space in middle. 

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I would try to restructure, he's not as bad as some people make him out to be, but he's not nearly has good either

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Just now, dave mcbride said:

It's more of a gut feel. He just strikes me as the sort of guy who wants to play with a "star" team (partly because he seems to want to win). I don't put Buffalo in that category, but I could be wrong. Regardless, I would be absolutely stunned if the Bills are pursuing him. They have something like 9 quality d-linemen now. 

Well, if they were interested it would absolutely be at Murphy’s expense. It’s a situation where they may say “Murphy at $10M or Clowney at $18M?” That’s the kind of decision that they would make. The $8M savings from Murphy would immediately be applied to Clowney. 

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